AFL Rising Star award

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Atavistic

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#79
So what sort of money have people being making with cash-outs on RS betting this year? I worked mine out to be $80. The only bets I have remaining are a $10 free bet on Petracca@23 and two small bets on Fantasia which I'll probably cash out soon. Also put $1 on Markov but can't recall why. Must have been drinking.

I think my favourite one was getting on Papley at 251.
 

FootyStar#1

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#80
Well it looks like it's down to 4. Who do you guys predict your top 5 is right now?

I'd go:

1. Caleb Daniel
2. Darcy Parish
3. Callum Mills
4. Christian Petracca
5. Jacob Weitering

Still an outside chance: Peter Wright

I also think if any of those top 4 have a best on ground performance in the last 5 rounds, that would most likely be enough to win the whole thing, that's how close this is.
 

Sausage Legs

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#81
Well it looks like it's down to 4. Who do you guys predict your top 5 is right now?

I'd go:

1. Caleb Daniel
2. Darcy Parish
3. Callum Mills
4. Christian Petracca
5. Jacob Weitering

Still an outside chance: Peter Wright

I also think if any of those top 4 have a best on ground performance in the last 5 rounds, that would most likely be enough to win the whole thing, that's how close this is.
check out connor blakely's stats, like the way he goes about it. just not as much media coverage i reckon, nice odds too.
 

Youdy

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#82
Well it looks like it's down to 4. Who do you guys predict your top 5 is right now?

I'd go:

1. Caleb Daniel
2. Darcy Parish
3. Callum Mills
4. Christian Petracca
5. Jacob Weitering

Still an outside chance: Peter Wright

I also think if any of those top 4 have a best on ground performance in the last 5 rounds, that would most likely be enough to win the whole thing, that's how close this is.

Have Petracca/Blakely have been that much better to overcome playing 4 less games?

None of the last 8 winners have played <20 games which seems to weigh against Petracca/Blakely and potentially Weitering.

If you are considering Peter Wright, Fantasia is probably a chance?
if he tidies up his goal-kicking, would have 20 goals in the last 5 weeks playing for the bombers.
 

FallingLiefs

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#84
I'm still mad Cameron ling basically forgot to put ollie wines in his top 5, including the likes of Aaron Mullet ahead of him. That's how bad this award is....


Also interesting Champion Data player ratings have Caleb Daniel the second worst nominee of the year behind Acres. Bizarre if you ask me but seems a risk that it's probably something the judges will vote on.
 

Gift

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#86
Daniel 205.9, Parish 148.8, Mills 145.5, Petracca 145.1, Weitering 133.5, Acres 132.6, Blakely 120.3.

However the people who vote are just random media/retired AFL players who will just pick players off the top of their head.

Last year media went nuts over Hogan so he won by a mile, but really the voting should have been much closer between him and Cripps.

No point analysing it this far out unless you can predict who the media will wank over at the end of the season.
 

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Youdy

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#87
Daniel 205.9, Parish 148.8, Mills 145.5, Petracca 145.1, Weitering 133.5, Acres 132.6, Blakely 120.3.

However the people who vote are just random media/retired AFL players who will just pick players off the top of their head.

Last year media went nuts over Hogan so he won by a mile, but really the voting should have been much closer between him and Cripps.

No point analysing it this far out unless you can predict who the media will wank over at the end of the season.
Parish, A shining Light for the bombers in a season of despair etc etc

Seems like the sort of thing the media would get behind

In saying that, Lewis Taylor beat Bontompelli who from memory was getting all of the media attention?
 

Gift

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#88
Parish, A shining Light for the bombers in a season of despair etc etc

Seems like the sort of thing the media would get behind
Exactly. Or they could have articles on midget pride with Caleb overcoming adversity etc. Whatever they think will sell more papers.

In saying that, Lewis Taylor beat Bontompelli who from memory was getting all of the media attention?
Bontempelli got more media attention because he was playing for a Victorian team.

In the end it was a close result with Taylor winning by one vote but some suspect it was a dodgy result involving people who voted and gambling which you can google.
 

FallingLiefs

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#89
Wheres this? On the afl site it has Caleb Daniel leading pretty much all the nominees in the player ratings by Champion Data.
AFL player ratings which is basically CD. due to his age his actual output is below expected for just an average AFL player.

upload_2016-7-26_15-0-54.png
 

freo_leo29

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#90
Blakely a chance to get some media attention with big games like freo v sydney, the derby, freo v crows, freo v gws and freo v dogs

Should receive media attention if we keep playing competitively against these top sides, I don't think he will win it from here on out but he has been storming home since being at 100-1 odds in round 9
 

Youdy

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#91
Exactly. Or they could have articles on midget pride with Caleb overcoming adversity etc. Whatever they think will sell more papers.



Bontempelli got more media attention because he was playing for a Victorian team.

In the end it was a close result with Taylor winning by one vote but some suspect it was a dodgy result involving people who voted and gambling which you can google.
Yeah i was aware of that, involved King from memory, betting at the tab whilst pumping up LT on camera every chance he got.
 

X_box_X

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#93
Does anyone know who is on the panel to vote on this years Rising Star Award? Wanna see if there are many short blokes that will vote for Daniel. Cheers
Similarly, I would like to know if there are any on the panel with slow twitch fibres who will vote for Mills, and anyone with large thighs who will vote for Petracca.
 
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#95
hey guys, I put $100 on Callum Mills to win the Rising Star back when he was paying $13.
cashout value is now $325, i'm wondering if that's worth doing or if you'd recommend waiting a few more weeks. the bet is with Bet365 so I can do partial cashout.
I've also got a further $50 on him with Crownbet that I can't cashout.
my thinking was maybe to cashout $150 worth - ie my stake - and let the rest ride.
is it worth getting a betfair account and laying Mills - i don't have any experience with laying so would appreciate any help.
what would you suggest?
 

iluvparis

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#96
Just eyeballing Betfair there is pretty limited liquidity in the rising star market - especially given how much you want to lay off - so I probably wouldn't set up an account just for that.
 

FallingLiefs

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#97
hey guys, I put $100 on Callum Mills to win the Rising Star back when he was paying $13.
cashout value is now $325, i'm wondering if that's worth doing or if you'd recommend waiting a few more weeks. the bet is with Bet365 so I can do partial cashout.
I've also got a further $50 on him with Crownbet that I can't cashout.
my thinking was maybe to cashout $150 worth - ie my stake - and let the rest ride.
is it worth getting a betfair account and laying Mills - i don't have any experience with laying so would appreciate any help.
what would you suggest?
General cash out rules:
if you'd back him at current price, cash out none.
If he's the right price, cash out stake
If he's too short for what you'd normally bet, cash the lot out.

If you're comfortable of having $325 on a $4 shot I'd be keeping it, it's all about how much you wanna risk.
 

asanque

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Well it looks like it's down to 4. Who do you guys predict your top 5 is right now?

I'd go:

1. Caleb Daniel
2. Darcy Parish
3. Callum Mills
4. Christian Petracca
5. Jacob Weitering

Still an outside chance: Peter Wright

I also think if any of those top 4 have a best on ground performance in the last 5 rounds, that would most likely be enough to win the whole thing, that's how close this is.
Right now:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Caleb Daniel
3. Christian Petracca
4. Callum Mills
5. Darcy Parish

I expect Petracca to be favourite by the end of the season.
 
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