AFL Rising Star award

[cryptor]

Is this a one, two, three or four horse race? Burton obviously favourite but are the next three really still in striking distance?

If you're asking the Bookies or the punters then it's pretty clear they think it's a one horse race now. The potential for a suspension (which would disqualify him) is the only thing keeping things open.

 

[mookieb]

If you're asking the Bookies or the punters then it's pretty clear they think it's a one horse race now. The potential for a suspension (which would disqualify him) is the only thing keeping things open.

I heard Healy talk about SPP how is is by far the best first year player and the favourite for the Rising Star. Now he isn't favourite and perhaps he is the best 1st year player (Burton played a bit last year) but the commentators love SPP. There was an article apparently about his tough upbringing and he has a good profile so that doesn't hurt. I'm on Burton and he seems to be powering home and fortunately SPP has had 2 shockers in a row (10 possies or less). I'm still nervy because a couple of "don't argue's" Dusty style and the commentators will be glowing about him again.

McGrath is no chance I don't think.

 

[Cynic]

I heard Healy talk about SPP how is is by far the best first year player and the favourite for the Rising Star. Now he isn't favourite and perhaps he is the best 1st year player (Burton played a bit last year) but the commentators love SPP. There was an article apparently about his tough upbringing and he has a good profile so that doesn't hurt. I'm on Burton and he seems to be powering home and fortunately SPP has had 2 shockers in a row (10 possies or less). I'm still nervy because a couple of "don't argue's" Dusty style and the commentators will be glowing about him again.

McGrath is no chance I don't think.

Honestly I agree in that everything coming from the media appears to be pro SPP which is worrying.

That said I would expect Burton to be in the 4/5 votes from all; with SPP in the 5/4/3 with Curnow & McGrath in the 4/3/2 range.

Of course three weeks in football is an awfully long time...

I'm also never betting again after this; far too stressful

 

[vanders]

After a few shockers in a row and SPP being rested this week surely it's Burtons to lose now?

Crossing my fingers

 

[Cynic]

After a few shockers in a row and SPP being rested this week surely it's Burtons to lose now?

Crossing my fingers

Should delete your slip; it's against the board rules.

Also I'm starting to agree with you. To lose it he'll need to play below average for three and one of Curnow or McGrath to have great games for the remaining and even then he should still be the firm favourite.

 

[XXRL]

When is the winner normally announced?

 

[Cynic]

After a few shockers in a row and SPP being rested this week surely it's Burtons to lose now?

Crossing my fingers

Apologies I thought this was the Hawk board so I'd say your betting slip didn't break any rules! (Although I may be wrong)

When is the winner normally announced?

23rd September I believe.

 

[Young Gun #6]

After a few shockers in a row and SPP being rested this week surely it's Burtons to lose now?

Crossing my fingers

SPP still in the squad at this stage..

 

[cryptor]

When is the winner normally announced?

End of home & away season.

 

[mookieb]

SPP still in the squad at this stage..

Being rested according to late mail on AFL site. Makes sense that he needs a rest and they are normally spot on.

 

[Cynic]

Being rested according to late mail on AFL site. Makes sense that he needs a rest and they are normally spot on.

Bookies think he's done his dash as well. Been a pretty big drop since the news.

Had money on him to offset my risk if Burton lost but not too disheartened with the news!

 

[cryptor]

Being rested according to late mail on AFL site. Makes sense that he needs a rest and they are normally spot on.

Named to play in the SANFL team. So "rested" is more likely a case of being dropped.

 

[vanders]

Named to play in the SANFL team. So "rested" is more likely a case of being dropped.

I think they name anyone that's listed on the extended bench of a Sunday AFL game

 

[vanders]

Just cashed out by bet on Ryan Burton. Got on him early in the year so still got back 9x more than I originally bet. $450 is better than $0 if he doesn't win it since he's not playing this week.

 

[cryptor]

Just cashed out by bet on Ryan Burton. Got on him early in the year so still got back 9x more than I originally bet. $450 is better than $0 if he doesn't win it since he's not playing this week.

Same. I honestly believe he should win the award; but there's just way too much media bias and campaigning in the past month from guys like Tim Watson. Pushing for McGrath to win and for the criteria of the award to be changed so only first year players are eligible. Just feels like there's too much propaganda that could influence the result. Plus with the fairly vague way it's adjudicated there's just far too many variables.

If he does go on to win then I will still be really happy even though the difference between cashing out and letting it ride would be ~$3k

If he weren't to win and I hadn't cashed out then I'd have nothing, be down my original stake and probably bitter than he didn't win.

 

[Cynic]

Just cashed out by bet on Ryan Burton. Got on him early in the year so still got back 9x more than I originally bet. $450 is better than $0 if he doesn't win it since he's not playing this week.

Same. I honestly believe he should win the award; but there's just way too much media bias and campaigning in the past month from guys like Tim Watson. Pushing for McGrath to win and for the criteria of the award to be changed so only first year players are eligible. Just feels like there's too much propaganda that could influence the result. Plus with the fairly vague way it's adjudicated there's just far too many variables.

If he does go on to win then I will still be really happy even though the difference between cashing out and letting it ride would be ~$3k

If he weren't to win and I hadn't cashed out then I'd have nothing, be down my original stake and probably bitter than he didn't win.

Sportsbet won't let me cash out

 

[cryptor]

Sportsbet won't let me cash out

If it makes you feel better I honestly think he'll win. I just had to look at it logically with these options on the table:

1. Ride the bet and Burton wins.

2. Cashout (take 65%) and Burton wins.

3. Cashout and Burton loses.

4. Ride the bet and Burton loses (down ~$400 plus what could've been)

I could happily live with any of the first 3 options (in that order). Option 4, which is light years behind the first 3 would have been bitterly disappointing and I'd be kicking myself for ages.

I've got my fingers crossed for you! But do also keep checking because they might unfreeze it once things settle down.

 

[Cynic]

If it makes you feel better I honestly think he'll win. I just had to look at it logically with these options on the table:

1. Ride the bet and Burton wins.

2. Cashout (take 65%) and Burton wins.

3. Cashout and Burton loses.

4. Ride the bet and Burton loses (down ~$400 plus what could've been)

I could happily live with any of the first 3 options (in that order). Option 4, which is light years behind the first 3 would have been bitterly disappointing and I'd be kicking myself for ages.

I've got my fingers crossed for you! But do also keep checking because they might unfreeze it once things settle down.

I don't think I'm able to because it was placed before it became a Cashout market sadly.

All I can do is hope for a minor miracle -.-

 

[iluvparis]

I don't think I'm able to because it was placed before it became a Cashout market sadly.

All I can do is hope for a minor miracle -.-

There is $37 available to lay on betfair at a $1.72 to provide some cover

 

[Cynic]

There is $37 available to lay on betfair at a $1.72 to provide some cover

I only have a Sportsbet account sadly. Does Lay All mean anyone but Burton? I'm not a punter by any stretch sorry.

 

[iluvparis]

I only have a Sportsbet account sadly. Does Lay All mean anyone but Burton? I'm not a punter by any stretch sorry.

Basically yes - if he loses you get the $37, if he wins you have to pay out $26.64

 

[Cynic]

Basically yes - if he loses you get the $37, if he wins you have to pay out $26.64

Cheers; appreciate the advice, know nothing about punting other than this bet is killing me. So I couldn't say put a $1k on him?

 

[iluvparis]

Cheers; appreciate the advice, know nothing about punting other than this bet is killing me. So I couldn't say put a $1k on him?

You could offer the odds yourself and hope someone matches them. I'm not sure how much liquidity there is in the market generally.

 

[mookieb]

Burtons odds have blown out a bit to $1.55 and McGrath and SPP have shortened a bit. Fortunately SPP didn't do much (16 possies in a massive win), McGrath was fairly innocuous with 21 possies (15 handballs) and Curnow had 11 possies (2 goals).

You would think Burton deserves to be a strong fav although there are multiple media fanboys of SPP who trot out the comparisons at the same age to Selwood and Dangerfield.

 

[Cynic]

Burtons odds have blown out a bit to $1.55 and McGrath and SPP have shortened a bit. Fortunately SPP didn't do much (16 possies in a massive win), McGrath was fairly innocuous with 21 possies (15 handballs) and Curnow had 11 possies (2 goals).

You would think Burton deserves to be a strong fav although there are multiple media fanboys of SPP who trot out the comparisons at the same age to Selwood and Dangerfield.

Barring any massive media push I'd say Burton should take it home. If any of the others had had a massive game I reckon he was gone but no one really took the opportunity...luckily