Rising Star Nomination's since 2020

[Aristotle Pickett]

That is correct, but that is also why we should have gotten a head start on a rebuild instead of trading away 2 years of picks.

From my experience of watching sport, it tends to be hard to get elite young talent when your picking outside the first 2 rounds. For a club that had no elite young talent to bank on, trading away our 4 best picks over 2 years was a interesting way to tackle the problem

There's not much we can do about it. We aren't going to get a top 5 pick until we finish down the bottom and I would never advocate trading Dustin, Lynch or Baker for a high pick.

 

[_RT_]

That is correct, but that is also why we should have gotten a head start on a rebuild instead of trading away 2 years of picks.

From my experience of watching sport, it tends to be hard to get elite young talent when your picking outside the first 2 rounds. For a club that had no elite young talent to bank on, trading away our 4 best picks over 2 years was a interesting way to tackle the probm

Didn't realise that Hopper D.Rioli Baker Taranto Bolton Balta & Gibcus were all in their 30s. I mean if they were still all 26 or and had at least a good 5-7 years left we'd be in reasonable shape to keep building from. Oh wait they are, then add to them the likes of Ross Ryan Cumberland Coulthard Sonsie Banks Brown & Clarke and the picture doesn't look as bad as you make out.

 

[BruceTempany14]

Players who were nominated for Rising Star whilst playing for Richmond, who played in Richmond Premierships 2017-20(12):

T Cotchin
J Riewoldt
D Martin
D Grimes
B Ellis
N Vlastuin
K McIntosh
D Rioli
D Butler
J Castagna
L Baker
S Bolton

Richmond Premiership players 2017-20 who were not nominated for the RS award(14):
D Prestia
S Edwards
K Lambert
T Nankervis
J Graham
N Broad
A Rance
J Townsend
D Astbury
M Pickett
I Soldo
J Short
T Lynch
N Balta


And Richmond players who were nominated from 2007 but did not play in our Premiership teams(8):

W Thursfield
R Conca
J Batchelor
B Lennon
J Higgins
S Stack
H Ralphsmith
N Cumberland

So we have had 20 nominees in almost 17 seasons(367 rounds.) On average, teams who were in the competition in 2007 will have roughly 21 nominees. So we are a fraction below average for RS nominees. But we have developed the overwhelming majority of our own players - probably the most in the AFL. And our club in this sample period is one of the 3 most successful in terms of Premierships and I would guess top 6-7 in terms of games won. So if the RS was a reliable indicator of future success, then you might expect to see Richmond with more than its share of nominees.



Other players who played at Richmond who were nominated for the RS Award at their original clubs:

R Petterd
B Houli
S Grigg
T Banfield
J Caddy
J Hopper(so the Hopper deal was a good one after all in RJK Tiger 's view. )
T Taranto


In all I make it 15 of our Premiership players were RS nominated. And 14 of our Premiership players were not nominated. 9 players who played for Richmond in the period were RS nominated at either Richmond or another club and were old enough to have played in our Premiership teams but did not do so.

Roughly half our Premiership teams were not nominated for the RS Award.

Players likely to be on our list in 2024 who have been nominated:

Martin, Grimes, Vlastuin, McIntosh, D Rioli, Baker, Bolton, Ralphsmith, Cumberland, Hopper, Taranto(11) So we have just enough to make up half of our 2024 Premiership team to stay in line with the trend.

RJK Tiger .....

A seriously great post. Superb analysis. I think I love you.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Didn't realise that Hopper D.Rioli Baker Taranto Bolton Balta & Gibcus were all in their 30s. I mean if they were still all 26 or and had at least a good 5-7 years left we'd be in reasonable shape to keep building from. Oh wait they are, then add to them the likes of Ross Ryan Cumberland Coulthard Sonsie Banks Brown & Clarke and the picture doesn't look as bad as you make out.

Yeah but what about the rising star nominees
Surely we need to concentrate on getting some more of these bad boys

You know that award that has one of the most convoluted set of pre requisites that has had some amazingly talented players like Stephenson & Lewis Taylor win

 

[banzai]

Barking up the wrong tree?

Its the lowest strikerate in the league, which is generally not a good sign. Club should have started rebuilding after 2021, instead we didn't play kids and it shows. It shows to me how underprepared the club is to start a rebuild. The only 2 that have earned a nomination (from 2021), are still playing more VFL than AFL, so we can't even enjoy those 2 really.


The list of players you mentioned who earned a nomination 15 years ago was very interesting. Thanks. I knew it already & it did prove nicely the value of nominated players which was my original point. Your welcome.

View attachment 1769492

Which clubs start a rebuild 12 months after a dynasty? It doesn't happen, last year we would have finished top 4 if Lynch didn't miss crucial games (Swans, North, GC, Freo) and who knows from there. This year was more ambitious to go again, but we seemed to have followed pretty much what Hawthorn tried. It's taken them 8 years since their last flag to put together a young group again, our coach has left earlier though so maybe we can do it a bit faster. Its time now to start bringing in lots of young players.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Which clubs start a rebuild 12 months after a dynasty? It doesn't happen, last year we would have finished top 4 if Lynch didn't miss crucial games (Swans, North, GC, Freo) and who knows from there. This year was more ambitious to go again, but we seemed to have followed pretty much what Hawthorn tried. It's taken them 8 years since their last flag to put together a young group again, our coach has left earlier though so maybe we can do it a bit faster. Its time now to start bringing in lots of young players.

By rebuilding i mainly meant started playing the kids. Instead of playing Aaarts, they should have been playing Cumberland & MRJ etc. The club let the 2 up and coming young forwards leave at the same time at the age to take on bigger roles, then did sweet FA to replace them. When i say in 2021 they needed to start to rebuild, i just mean retain their picks and put more games into Ross, Cumberland, MRJ, RCD, Naish, Dow, CCJ, Stack, Mansell, Miller, NRS.

 

[damicky]

Since and including 2015, players nominated who are currently on our list:

McIntosh
D Rioli
J Hopper
T Taranto
L Baker
S Bolton
H Ralphsmith
N Cumberland.

8 players from 191 games. We are 2.6 nominations short of AFL average in that time - if no players were nominated twice. But quite a few have been. So we might be about 2 nominations down on AFL average in the last 4 seasons.

Players already on our list who are eligible by age to be nominated in 2023 and 2024:

Sonsie
Banks
*Gibcus
Brown
**Clarke
Green
Smith
Campbell

* Disqualified for having played too many games
** Disqualified in 2024 only


Players who missed nomination in recent years but look a strong chance to be become best 22 players for us in future and are currently under 25yo:

Young
*Balta
Ross
Ryan
**M Rioli Jnr

* Played in a Premiership team when eligible
** Played well in a final when eligible

RJK Tiger why don't you show the correlation between Premiership teams and not having a 4 year window with 2 or less nominations at some relevant earlier point?

Cats for instance won the 2022 AFL Toyota Premiership with 5 players on their list who were nominated whilst playing for them over the previous 11 seasons.

Demons won the 2021 flag after zero nominations across the 2017-18-19 seasons, and 2 nominations in 2020 - so just the 2 nominations in a 4 year window prior to their flag year.

Eagles won the 2018 flag with 2 nominations in the 6 years 2012-2017 leading up to their flag year.

Hawks 2013-15 Premiership teams contained only 4 players who were nominated whilst playing for the Hawks between the years 2007-2015(9 seasons). Those were Rioli 2008, Stratton 2010, Breust 2011, Hill 2013.

So where does this leave us at this point in time RJK? It appears to me our 2 nominations over the past 4 years is telling us we are likely to win the 2024 Premiership and were a decent chance for a 3 peat.

But but but RJK says....

How did Balta miss out on a nomination?

 

[_RT_]

By rebuilding i mainly meant started playing the kids. Instead of playing Aaarts, they should have been playing Cumberland & MRJ etc. The club let the 2 up and coming young forwards leave at the same time at the age to take on bigger roles, then did sweet FA to replace them. When i say in 2021 they needed to start to rebuild, i just mean retain their picks and put more games into Ross, Cumberland, MRJ, RCD, Naish, Dow, CCJ, Stack, Mansell, Miller, NRS.

2021 games:
Ross - 15
Cumberland - missed most of the season recovering from 2020 ACL
Rioli Jr - 2 games in first year
RCD - 9 games
Naish - 6 games
Dow - 5 games
CCJ - 8 games
Stack - 7 games
Mansell - 13 games
Miller - 1 game
Ralphsmith - 6 games

For a side that was in the season following it's 3rd flag in 4 years plenty of the kids we had at the time were afforded opportunities to step in to the side and stake a claim for a spot moving forward. Unfortunately some of them weren't able to step up and claim a spot and either found themselves delisted or they requested a trade looking for an opportunity.

FWIW since start of 2021 season
Ross - 46 games
Cumberland - 18 games
Rioli Jr - 25 games
Dow - 14 games
Mansell - 30 games
Miller - 25 games
Ralphsmith - 32 games
Sonsie - 10 games (in 2nd season)
Banks - 5 games (in 2nd season)
Clarke - 16 games (in 2nd season)
Ryan - 15 games
Young - 16 games (first season)
Bauer - 2 games (in 2nd season but only been at club 1.5 seasons as MSD)
Coulthard - 3 games (MSD pick this year)


I've been saying for at least 2 years that we've been rebuilding on the fly and that the way we've been going about it has been the best way to do it. We have maintained a core of experienced players and filtered through the younger kids as opportunities present so that we're not throwing the kids to the wolves.

Heading into 2024 I expect the kids will continue to get opportunities with some being asked to step into more important roles as older guys start to come to the end of their careers.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How did Balta miss out on a nomination?

Key position or ruck players from Balta's draft who were nominated for the RS:

2018 - Sam Taylor, Aaron Naughton

2019 - Oscar Allen

2020 - nil


Key position players from Balta's draft not nominated for the RS:

Darcy Fogarty, Jarrod Brander, Callum Coleman-Jones, Balta, Tom DeKoning, Tom McCartin, Harrison Petty, Nathan Murphy, Charles Ballard, Connor Ballenden, Sam Hayes, Brayden Crossley, Jack Payne, Ben Miller, Brandon Zerk, Lloyd Meek, Tristan Xerri.

So it isn't easy to get nominated as a key position player or ruck. Balta probably sits below the 3 who were nominated and above the other 16 or so who were not nominated.

But the nomination process has missed Balta, Fogarty, McCartin, Petty, Ballard who have all shown significant form, but somehow captured the following players from the same draft who were not key position and have not really done anything significant to date, or not even nailed down a best 22 spot for their club:

Hunter Clark, Paddy Dow, Jack Petrucelle, Charles Constable.

So amongst other things the award doesn't know how to rate key position prospects versus prospects who play in other positions.

 

[RJK Tiger]

2021 games:
Ross - 15
Cumberland - missed most of the season recovering from 2020 ACL
Rioli Jr - 2 games in first year
RCD - 9 games
Naish - 6 games
Dow - 5 games
CCJ - 8 games
Stack - 7 games
Mansell - 13 games
Miller - 1 game
Ralphsmith - 6 games

For a side that was in the season following it's 3rd flag in 4 years plenty of the kids we had at the time were afforded opportunities to step in to the side and stake a claim for a spot moving forward. Unfortunately some of them weren't able to step up and claim a spot and either found themselves delisted or they requested a trade looking for an opportunity.

FWIW since start of 2021 season
Ross - 46 games
Cumberland - 18 games
Rioli Jr - 25 games
Dow - 14 games
Mansell - 30 games
Miller - 25 games
Ralphsmith - 32 games
Sonsie - 10 games (in 2nd season)
Banks - 5 games (in 2nd season)
Clarke - 16 games (in 2nd season)
Ryan - 15 games
Young - 16 games (first season)
Bauer - 2 games (in 2nd season but only been at club 1.5 seasons as MSD)
Coulthard - 3 games (MSD pick this year)


I've been saying for at least 2 years that we've been rebuilding on the fly and that the way we've been going about it has been the best way to do it. We have maintained a core of experienced players and filtered through the younger kids as opportunities present so that we're not throwing the kids to the wolves.

Heading into 2024 I expect the kids will continue to get opportunities with some being asked to step into more important roles as older guys start to come to the end of their careers.

Righto - so if you reckon this proves something, then what is it? As all these kids turned to trash? Of those blokes they played in 2021, why are all of them except for Ross still not even close to being senior starting 18 regulars? There has to be a reason - as i said, 2 Rising Star nominations, both of which are still VFL level. So whats your explanation?


Mine is....


How many of these games were "in a row"?

How many games were as a Medical sub?

How many times were they dropped after a single poor performance?

How much was their TOG and were they played out of their position to fill huge gaps caused my massive injury tolls. The only reason any of those kids got played was because we literally had no fit players left.

Playing the kids and trusting them to grow in your team are 2 very different things. Truth be told, RCD & Naish were both consistently getting BOG in the VFL team with 25 - 30+ possessions & leading the side to wins and still were not getting played. If both were performing at that same level this season, they would easily be outperforming Sonsie, Dow, etc .

 

[_RT_]

Righto - so if you reckon this proves something, then what is it? As all these kids turned to trash? Of those blokes they played in 2021, why are all of them except for Ross still not even close to being senior starting 18 regulars? There has to be a reason - as i said, 2 Rising Star nominations, both of which are still VFL level. So whats your explanation?


Mine is....


How many of these games were "in a row"?

How many games were as a Medical sub?

How many times were they dropped after a single poor performance?

How much was their TOG and were they played out of their position to fill huge gaps caused my massive injury tolls. The only reason any of those kids got played was because we literally had no fit players left.

Playing the kids and trusting them to grow in your team are 2 very different things. Truth be told, RCD & Naish were both consistently getting BOG in the VFL team with 25 - 30+ possessions & leading the side to wins and still were not getting played. If both were performing at that same level this season, they would easily be outperforming Sonsie, Dow, etc .

It proves that we've been playing the kids and continue to play them, but we've done it in a way where the kids haven't thrown to the wolves where we asked them to carry the load. We've given them opportunities, and the majority have grabbed their chance and are slowly becoming regulars i the senior side as we transition to the next generation. While others are now plying their trade at state league level or lower because they weren't good enough.