Preview Rnd 12 - Carlton v Fremantle Sat 15th Aug 8.10PM AEST @ Optus Stadium

[Macca43]

Freo scores this year

Round 1. 57 Round 2. 69.

Round 3. 41 Round 4. 51

Round 5. 48 Round 6. 79*

Round 7. 32. Round 8. 16*

Round 9. 61. Round 11. 48


Not quaking in my boots just yet. They’ve been better the last couple of weeks but they still struggle to kick a score. With Weiters and Jones it’s very hard to see them kicking 60+ which they’ve only done a three times for the year. They’ll need to score to beat us

Apparently Hogan played CHB in the scratch match for them, so probably won’t be returning as a forward is he comes back in this week

From the resumption until now Hawthorn's scores are 47, 71, 58, 49, 27, 48, 53, 89 & 32.

Against us they had 51 points at half time, a score they have only beaten 3 times for a full game, 2 of which were by 7 points or less.

 

[Bryce Bubbles]

After beating Geelong in Geelong, it seemed like a very good possibility.

After last weeks game against the Hawks its clear its not going to happen though.

We really were lucky to win that. A few brain fades by cats players, easy missed shots...

 

[BlueView]

From the resumption until now Hawthorn's scores are 47, 71, 58, 49, 27, 48, 53, 89 & 32.

Against us they had 51 points at half time, a score they have only beaten 3 times for a full game, 2 of which were by 7 points or less.

Yep we can be scored against heavily due to our style / lack of concentration / experience but last week we came to an absolute grinding halt

Collingwood’s in the same basket at the moment struggling to kick a score and I reckon we’ll go alright against them pending injuries to our forwards.

Think if we can hold our own in the midfield this week they’ll find it difficult to outgun us. Our defence will hold up against Taberner, Lobb and Fyfe he’s down there.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

got my tickets...On top of the ******* grandstand, will need 3 coats and a safety harness.

 

[rp84]

How long do they give Marchy before he comes back in? Same goes with Dow.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

38 weeks? His 2020 is a write off, unless we get a s**t tonne of injuries.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Liked a lot of your analysis but this observation re Gibbons and Betts isn’t true. Gibbons was second on the team for pressure acts and score involvements on Sunday. Beating betts in both areas. Betts did however have more tackles.

Not saying the call to drop Gibbo is entirely without merit (although I wouldn’t do it personally), but the stats suggest that Gibbo is one of our stronger off ball contributors pretty consistently.

These kinds of things are obviously harder to see when the vast majority of us aren’t able to go to games and I imagine his efforts might be more appreciated if we were

Gibbons gets his pressure acts by being allowed to attend more stoppages. It's not a true reflection of how much pressure he generates in open play/ when the ball is launched into the forward 50. I think your last statement can easily be twisted back to favour Betts. It's easier to rely on stats which don't tell you everything you need to know without being there. Pressure acts aren't always awarded when the ball is up for grabs either. It's a weird stat.

 

[Bluepanther]

Brisbane and Richmond lost to Hawthorn this year as well - are they also not ready to play finals football?

We're obviously up against it now when it comes to playing finals in 2020, but with 9 wins being enough to get us there, it's nowhere near as impossible as you suggest.

We've been in every game so far this year; and in many of those games we've dominated large periods.

Brisbane and Richmond both will be playing finals and both are stronger teams than Carlton ..plz we all love our club but don't let our biases get in the way of reality and rationale ...yeh we've been in most games but that is not good enough ..gotta get the job done ..big difference yeh ?? ..we are not there yet ..but we have improved to a certain degree

 

[Robertio]

got my tickets...On top of the ******* grandstand, will need 3 coats and a safety harness.

And a parachute, those Fremantle supporters are nasty little critters.

 

[Sector 7G]

I am concerned that we are missing the 2 players that give us quick ball movement and precise kicking I50 in Martin and Cuningham.

I want to see Dow come back in and compete against Brayshaw, Crowley and Cerra, Walsh against Serong. Walsh is wasted on a wing he needs to be in the action.

 

[Jeremias]

Brisbane and Richmond both will be playing finals and both are stronger teams than Carlton ..plz we all love our club but don't let our biases get in the way of reality and rationale ...yeh we've been in most games but that is not good enough ..gotta get the job done ..big difference yeh ?? ..we are not there yet ..but we have improved to a certain degree

Of course both clubs are stronger than Carlton at the moment, but isn't that exactly the point? One game proves little in isolation...no pun intended.

Game by game results are scrutinised heavily by fans and the media but it is the entire body of work that matters most.

As for improvement, whilst we may not play finals in 2020, we have improved significantly on last season...with plenty more to come.

 

[Arr0w]

Gibbons gets his pressure acts by being allowed to attend more stoppages. It's not a true reflection of how much pressure he generates in open play/ when the ball is launched into the forward 50. I think your last statement can easily be twisted back to favour Betts. It's easier to rely on stats which don't tell you everything you need to know without being there. Pressure acts aren't always awarded when the ball is up for grabs either. It's a weird stat.

It's an interesting assumption, one the I will do some more research shortly, but this is what i have at the moment

Forward half pressure acts, game averages

Gibbons 10.30
Betts 10.11

Gibbons is more than holding his own against Betts

Will do the last 4 games, along with possible percentages based on where possessions where gained, forward 50 versus forward half

 

[james Dean]

As for improvement, whilst we may not play finals in 2020, we have improved significantly on last season...with plenty more to come.

I hope you’re right, the thought of Cripps leaving makes me sad

 

[Arr0w]

It's an interesting assumption, one the I will do some more research shortly, but this is what i have at the moment

Forward half pressure acts, game averages

Gibbons 10.30
Betts 10.11

Gibbons is more than holding his own against Betts

Will do the last 4 games, along with possible percentages based on where possessions where gained, forward 50 versus forward half

SkyhorseTamer

Last 4 games of pressure acts, percentage of where they could have possibly of taken place is what percentage of disposals happened where

Gibbons 71 PA, inside 50 - 19.17, between forward arc and centre line 32
Betts 62 PA, inside 50 - 18.6, between forward arc and centre line 31

Not far off each other

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Hell yeah. He showed his pace a couple times. Unfortunately one of the biggest issues that plagues this team seems to be the midfields ability to keep up the pressure. Players like Kennedy dominate for 2 and a half quarters and then disappear as the opposing teams start getting it out of the stoppage too easily. Then the outside mids disappear. Defense seriously cannot keep up with how piss our defensive structures are late in games. I don't know if our mids cheat forward of their opposing men or just run out of steam but it's been the biggest issue all season. I singled Kennedy out but they're all doing it.

As a result our enlightened supporter base start slagging off players like Sps who are brilliant when our midfield offers a modicum of resistance and can't do anything about the avalanche when the mids disappear...

I also believe pitto doesn't do enough to slow the exit of the ball out of stoppages when we're on the back foot. Tdk did that much better. Get a tap down that's closer to the ruck mens feet so that they can collapse down and slow the opposing momentum.

In saying that my changes pending injuries

Out: Pittonet, Martin (injured), gibbons

Betts may not be scoring goals but his forward pressure is way higher than Gibbons and its creating goals for others. With Gibbons out Newnes can play his role.

In: Mckay/McGovern whichever is fit, Dow, Marchbank

I'd play Marchbank as a defensive winger and Murphy as the offensive winger, Newnes into Gibbons slot, Mckay deep forward and Casboult the relief ruck. Get Dow rotating on ball and Kennedy more time in the f50.

Yes setterfield hardly has a touch against hawks after halftime .. maybe he and Kennedy ain't got the wheels

 

[windows1]

Taberner and Fyfe could be very dangerous

If ever a bloke was ready made to be eaten alive by Weiters it’s Taberner.

 

[JustaBattler]

Yep, but then you also need to consider Murph, JSOS, Gibbons, Cunners, Owies, Honey, hell even Philp or Phillips.

I like what Kennedy offers, but I'm not sure where he fits in the 22 in the medium term. We've got lots of developing mids, and we've got some elite tall forwards, so he's gotta do a lot to hold a spot over guys with more perceived upside.

I'd have Kennedy in ahead of Murphy any day of the week and twice on Saturdays or Sundays tbh.

I agree though that next year will be tough for blokes like Kennedy - Teague will have blokes like Kemp/Stocker/Philp/LoB and maybe even young Jack if he is still around - pushing for inclusion with another pre-season under their belts.

I don't see Kennedy as a starting inside mid long term - more a rotation and capable of playing forward if required - but his limitation is his lack of leg speed and endurance at this stage- that's not a good combination - against which his contested marking/kicking and footy brain is a positive.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

But butchering the ball for our I50s is our game as well...

With 18 tackles in F50 how many goals we get from all the stoppages

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

SkyhorseTamer

Last 4 games of pressure acts, percentage of where they could have possibly of taken place is what percentage of disposals happened where

Gibbons 71 PA, inside 50 - 19.17, between forward arc and centre line 32
Betts 62 PA, inside 50 - 18.6, between forward arc and centre line 31

Not far off each other

Thanks for both of those little statlines. Intriguing really. Our f50 generally works pretty well I think.

 

[windows1]

And if we lose this week we'll be languishing in 14th. The only saving grace is those below us have a tough few weeks. Given our season that would be disappointing. We remain a mentally weak side.

I actually think we remain a side that gets dispirited by easy goals. Easy goals caused by lack of pace. It’s demoralising. Nothing really to do with OUR guys. It’s players in all teams- it’s real head dropping stuff. Conversely watching one of your team mates mow down someone on the break is uplifting.

this side will NOT seem mentally weak when we fix pace across the half back line.

 

[Tjblues]

Gibbons gets his pressure acts by being allowed to attend more stoppages. It's not a true reflection of how much pressure he generates in open play/ when the ball is launched into the forward 50. I think your last statement can easily be twisted back to favour Betts. It's easier to rely on stats which don't tell you everything you need to know without being there. Pressure acts aren't always awarded when the ball is up for grabs either. It's a weird stat.

Flawed it may be, but it’s one of the only indicators we’ve got, and if you look at the season as a whole, there’s only 1 or 2 games where Gibbons isn’t in the top 4 or 5 Carlton players for pressure acts. I think he’d be right to be pretty confused should he get dropped for a lack of pressure.

Don’t see relevance in the bolded statement either. If you’re only putting pressure on when the ball is up for grabs, you’re a conditional footballer at best.

The best stat I’ve ever been told as a player is that the average time per possession is roughly 4 seconds. That includes everything from quick handballs to set shots. A player who gets 30 touches is often seen to have dominated a game. When in reality he’s still only held the ball for 2 minutes out of 120.

It’s a long winded way of saying that what you do without the ball is massively important, and the majority of your work. All of the stats, flawed as they are, tell us that Gibbons is one of our harder workers off the ball. Lack of pressure isn’t a valid reason to drop him.

 

[Benaly28]

So after the injury report it looks like only Harry will get up.Hopefully now TDK stays in.

Martin out
Harry in.

Dow must come in you’d think for Cottrel.


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[bigm386]

Russell on McGovern:

Russell also ruled out returns for Mitch McGovern and David Cuningham, with the duo to undergo conditioning blocks in readiness for the Round 13 match against Gold Coast at TIO Stadium.

He has needed conditioning since he grazed over from Adelaide. Needs to be sorted.

 

[LanceRomance]

So after the injury report it looks like only Harry will get up.Hopefully now TDK stays in.

Martin out
Harry in.

Dow must come in you’d think for Cottrel.


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Guessing we will hear about pinot's hand sooner or later.

 

[katmanblue]

Our mids are nothing to be ashamed about..we occasionally have brain farts and stuff sh*t up.

Especially when they can't even get in the team

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[myblueroan]

I have personal experience of conditioning
My coat was sooooo glossy!
Guv will love al those extra oats and 4am runs around the track.