AFL Toast RND 13: Win Against The Blues

[Nuggs Bunny]

Their inside 50s are awful. They’re almost invariably shallow and produce virtually no set shots inside 50, and only one inside 25.

View attachment 1712136

Here’s a basic analysis of scoring shots that helps with interpreting the merits of various scoring shots in the chart above;

Stats and Trends: Analysing Goal Kicking in the AFL

With the re-commencement of the 2020 season just over a couple of weeks away, what better time to reacquaint ourselves with this resource and check-in on some of the stats and trends which defined the 2019 season from a shot charting perspective.

www.statsinsider.com.au

Spot on. They're not just a team that can't kick for goal, they're a team that struggles to mark inside 50 because their ball movement between the arcs is rubbish and they allow their opponents to get back all to easily. All their shots end up being from difficult positions because they're forced to go wide or to take kicks from on the 50.

 

[Run and carry]

It did concern me in the lead up to the game that all it would take is a few little things to click and Carlton would be quite dangerous. They dominated the inside 50s and scoring shots, with a little more composure they'd have probably smashed us.

I think we played well enough within our limits but we're a limited side at the moment and I think the ladder position flatters us.

I don't think the overall standard of the game was too flash from both sides.

 

[Lore]

Spot on. They're not just a team that can't kick for goal, they're a team that struggles to mark inside 50 because their ball movement between the arcs is rubbish and they allow their opponents to get back all to easily. All their shots end up being from difficult positions because they're forced to go wide or to take kicks from on the 50.

Their ball movement between the arcs - I don’t know how obvious it was watching at home but it was atrocious from where I was sitting up with the gods in GA last weekend.

Sometimes it’s like watching two entirely different games on TV vs at the ground… everyone in the game day thread is losing their minds and worries Carlton might suddenly start kicking straight.

Not something you worry about after seeing their first quarter from the stands and realising why they’ve required a minor miracle each time they’ve been allowed to kick more than 70 points this season.

Probably part of the reason fox’s analysis is so bad too.

 

[ant555]

Interesting but I'd say the exception rather than the rule. If Balders can handle monsters like Dixon and Hawkins, then I am all for giving him a go.

Not really the exception.
Weitering 195 - 101 . Has lost only 2 one on one contests this year.
Sam Collins 194-99
Charlie Ballard 196-99
Alir Alir 194-96
Grimes 194-91
Balta 194-102

Pies only have Moore at 200cm. Rest are all 190-195.
Swans KP defenders are all 192-195.

There is actually a real mix of 192-195 guys across the comp that do the job just as well as the 200cm guys.

 

[Vander18]

Not really the exception.
Weitering 195 - 101 . Has lost only 2 one on one contests this year.
Sam Collins 194-99
Charlie Ballard 196-99
Alir Alir 194-96
Grimes 194-91
Balta 194-102

Pies only have Moore at 200cm. Rest are all 190-195.
Swans KP defenders are all 192-195.

There is actually a real mix of 192-195 guys across the comp that do the job just as well as the 200cm guys.

Height is one thing, reach and leap are also a big part of it….Alir may be 194 cm but has crazy long arms and a great jump. He may as well be 203cm.

Re Balders - he looks to me like an oversized flanker, I’m doubtful he can play on many quality AFL talls. But only one way to find out for sure - he’s banging the door down and will get his opportunity soon enough.

Quality character and natural footballer, gives him half a chance to make it.

 

[citizen-erased]

No Steven May is taller than that… surely! Long arms?

May is barely taller than langford

 

[Happyskeret]

Interesting to note that it was Carlton’s second biggest loss for the year. Their biggest loss was against Adelaide by 56 points on their home deck.

 

[ant555]

Height is one thing, reach and leap are also a big part of it….Alir may be 194 cm but has crazy long arms and a great jump. He may as well be 203cm.

Re Balders - he looks to me like an oversized flanker, I’m doubtful he can play on many quality AFL talls. But only one way to find out for sure - he’s banging the door down and will get his opportunity soon enough.

Quality character and natural footballer, gives him half a chance to make it.

It is all about the core strength and ability to move your opponent off the line just enough. From what I have seen live in the VFL Baldwin has that ability. He has played on a few 200cm - 100kg rucks and has had zero issues moving them in one on one contest.
Forget what he was doing as a forward where he did look more like an over sized flanker . He has been at a different level as a defender. I would say under different circumstances he would be playing right now. He has to continue to improve but his level as a defender right now is well in front of anything Eyre and Brand where doing and also a long way in front of BZT at a stage similar stage .
Still has to keep finding improvement for sure but he is one who has taken another decent step forward. Right now he is well in front of Reid as well and I would have more confidence of him making a FB before Reid does .
His field kicking is really good as well.

As far as Alir goes yes I know his leap makes him different but it he is still in the under 195cm brigade. He just has a different one wood .

 

[Vander18]

It is all about the core strength and ability to move your opponent off the line just enough. From what I have seen live in the VFL Baldwin has that ability. He has played on a few 200cm - 100kg rucks and has had zero issues moving them in one on one contest.
Forget what he was doing as a forward where he did look more like an over sized flanker . He has been at a different level as a defender. I would say under different circumstances he would be playing right now. He has to continue to improve but his level as a defender right now is well in front of anything Eyre and Brand where doing and also a long way in front of BZT at a stage similar stage .
Still has to keep finding improvement for sure but he is one who has taken another decent step forward. Right now he is well in front of Reid as well and I would have more confidence of him making a FB before Reid does .
His field kicking is really good as well.

As far as Alir goes yes I know his leap makes him different but it he is still in the under 195cm brigade. He just has a different one wood .

My point is that height is one thing, leap and reach another. Alir’s height is misleading because he’s so long and so athletic. Playing on 200 cm forwards is a non-issue for him.

Baldwin, as you say, is a different beast. He needs to play like a Stephen May type KPD who can shift people off the line….what you said. I’m not as confident as you that he can do that with the biggest and best AFL behemoths.

I’m open to giving him a shot however - his composure and ball use in defence was impressive. If he can defend well enough then I see him as an upgrade on BZT.

 

[ant555]

My point is that height is one thing, leap and reach another. Alir’s height is misleading because he’s so long and so athletic. Playing on 200 cm forwards is a non-issue for him.

Baldwin, as you say, is a different beast. He needs to play like a Stephen May type KPD who can shift people off the line….what you said. I’m not as confident as you that he can do that with the biggest and best AFL behemoths.

I’m open to giving him a shot however - his composure and ball use in defence was impressive. If he can defend well enough then I see him as an upgrade on BZT.

I did name several others apart from Alir and I did not go through every side. They play on the 200cm blokes.
It can be easier for the shorter blokes in one on one contested to move the 200cm blokes off the line .
The agile blokes will be more match for the likes of Cox .

 

[Squeaky]

I think we need to take this win with a grain of salt. It was great fun but we’d being doing ourselves a disservice if we overlook the fact that Carlton controlled at least half the game, maybe a touch more.

The difference was that we were competent and efficient in the periods we had control. Carlton were, on the other hand, absolutely incompetent inside 50.

Good summation.
As good as the third qtr was - they had their chances too. Sometimes we were split up the middle but they would somehow chose the wrong option or made an unforced error.

 

[supportyourteam]

May is barely taller than langford

memories of an Adelaide goal.

 

[Ati Tude]

Good summation.
As good as the third qtr was - they had their chances too. Sometimes we were split up the middle but they would somehow chose the wrong option or made an unforced error.

Yep, have also had a bit of a half glass empty view of this win. It is always good to beat Carlton of course and any win is really a good win, but we did it in 12 minutes of great footy (and of the 6 goals, 2 were frees that were probably there but barely and a 50m penalty leading to Merrett passing to 2MP that I still have no idea what the 50 was for).

Whilst they beat us for forward 50 entries that worries me less because we were so efficient inside 50 and had 19 tackles in forward 50. They smashed us for contested ball, we had only 2 contested marks and we were on the right side of lop sided free kick count. We did work our backsides off in fairness and that was probably the difference in the end, along with them butchering basically everything they did forward of centre.

 

[citizen-erased]

memories of an Adelaide goal.

My favourite goal this season

 

[Runk]

 

[fairbump_playon]

May is barely taller than langford

I feel like I'm pretty good with the height and weight of players but this one has really surprised me. He plays big!

Interesting that May is 193, Lever 194 and Zerk-Thatcher 195.

May seems to manage the big boys well. Maybe Zerk just needs to do some more push ups.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

I feel like I'm pretty good with the height and weight of players but this one has really surprised me. He plays big!

Interesting that May is 193, Lever 194 and Zerk-Thatcher 195.

May seems to manage the big boys well. Maybe Zerk just needs to do some more push ups.

may has a much bigger build physically than most, reminds me sizewise of simon prestigiacomo

 

[mcgrath_truther]

SOON

 

[MNC Bomber]

Hi, apologies if this has been asked before, but does anyone know how to download (not stream) the game?
I have limited access to any sort of connection but I can get 30min of hi speed soon

On SM-T835 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lore]

Hi, apologies if this has been asked before, but does anyone know how to download (not stream) the game?
I have limited access to any sort of connection but I can get 30min of hi speed soon

On SM-T835 using BigFooty.com mobile app

This is a public link to stream the game:

2023 AFL Match Replays

Sit back and enjoy the full replay of every match from every round during the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season, as 18 teams battle it out for premiership glory.

www.afl.com.au

You could probably find a way to download it using that link, but I don’t know how and it’s against the terms of service on BigFooty to share such information on the forum anyway.

 

[MNC Bomber]

This is a public link to stream the game:

2023 AFL Match Replays

Sit back and enjoy the full replay of every match from every round during the 2023 Toyota AFL Premiership Season, as 18 teams battle it out for premiership glory.

www.afl.com.au

You could probably find a way to download it using that link, but I don’t know how and it’s against the terms of service on BigFooty to share such information on the forum anyway.

Thanks

On SM-T835 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[HirdyLannister]

I'm a sick person, I get too much enjoyment from these videos.

 

[ant555]

I'm a sick person, I get too much enjoyment from these videos.

Probably as much enjoyment as they have been getting out of our train wreck over the last 15 years.

 

[HirdyLannister]

Probably as much enjoyment as they have been getting out of our train wreck over the last 15 years.

Even with our saga, we have had more enjoyment than Carlton over the last 15 years.

 

[Ati Tude]

Even with our saga, we have had more enjoyment than Carlton over the last 15 years.

That's actually probably right. They have won 4 spoons in past 20 years. Even as dire as Melb and Norf have been, they only won 2 each.