Preview RND 15 - Carlton vs Adelaide (Crom) - Sunday June 27th 4:10pm (EST) @ Marvel Stadium - Team - Post #762

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BringFevBack2021

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I think Dow can run out a game, but he is so maligned by the coach that he isn’t afforded opportunity. He gets 54% TOG on average. 80% on the weekend strictly on-ball. He also had 20 pressure acts, 5 tackles and 5 clearances. I reckon rotate:
Crippa
Walsh
Kennedy
Dow
SPS

And you’ll see the explosive Paddy Wow we drafted
 

btdg

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I would bring in Newnes for Parks and SPS for Dow.

We need wins. People suggesting random young blokes on the list haven't watched enough of those guys yet - guys like Kemp, Carroll, Durdin, Honey are miles off having an impact, particularly there has only been one reserves game in a month. Young players need to do more than just have one slightly frisky magoos game.

Dow is also still miles and miles off AFL standard. His attack on the ball and contest was woeful on the weekend. He had 2 tackles and a handball in the first 69 seconds at repeat bounces. He then had 12 disposals and 1 tackle for the entirety of the match, playing midfield. He also openly shirked contests. It's time to send him down for the year to just build confidence- try and become a player that hunts the ball again.

SPS can play that role and offers more forward. Newnes is an underrated player whose form was poor earlier in the year, but helps us get a win as much as anyone.

And boy, do we need a win more than anything else....
 

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BlueLocke

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Was Ramsay held out of the VFL as an AFL emergency? If so, it’s fair to assume that means the club thinks he’s AFL ready.

Bring him in and give him on-ball minutes if that’s the case.

Would love to see Honey get a run (based on VFL vision) - has he been playing mostly HFF in the VFL or more midfield?
 

Stamos

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Dow is also still miles and miles off AFL standard. His attack on the ball and contest was woeful on the weekend. He had 2 tackles and a handball in the first 69 seconds at repeat bounces. He then had 12 disposals and 1 tackle for the entirety of the match, playing midfield. He also openly shirked contests. It's time to send him down for the year to just build confidence- try and become a player that hunts the ball again.
5 tackles, equal first for our team with Cripps. If you're going to go after someone, at least have the stats right.
Also 5 clearances. Low game-time.

He wasn't great, but he was a long way from our worst. We need to back in the kids.
 

Stamos

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Was Ramsay held out of the VFL as an AFL emergency? If so, it’s fair to assume that means the club thinks he’s AFL ready.

Bring him in and give him on-ball minutes if that’s the case.

Would love to see Honey get a run (based on VFL vision) - has he been playing mostly HFF in the VFL or more midfield?
Can't bring in a kid for debut when he didn't play last week.
 

Blue__Balls

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Martin needs game-time in the 2s to get match-fit. Let Newnes be sub again.
Reckon he can build fitness through training. And in the meantime, could be a really dynamic sub option later in a game. Martin coming in with fresh legs after half time could be a game changer if used through the middle.
 

Dadda Dave

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Hi all,
Excuse the intrusion, what is the reason for Dow getting such low TOG?
63% is staggering low and I thought the word was that he had really improved his endurance over the off-season.
There were times I thought he didn't work hard enough to get to the contest, but his tackle and pressure act numbers were actually pretty reasonable, especially considering the low TOG, and he was OK clearance-wise, and he did some good things in the third quarter surge.
Can't figure out the strategy.
Either can anyone else..
Players included.
 

Red_man2008

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Was Ramsay held out of the VFL as an AFL emergency? If so, it’s fair to assume that means the club thinks he’s AFL ready.

Bring him in and give him on-ball minutes if that’s the case.

Would love to see Honey get a run (based on VFL vision) - has he been playing mostly HFF in the VFL or more midfield?
Carlton vfl are playing northern bulla at this week and should have a chance at scoring quite heavily. Interesting to see what happens after a potential loss to Adelaide. Honey, Carroll, Murphy, Ramsay could have a day out. Crocker could kick 10.
 

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btdg

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5 tackles, equal first for our team with Cripps. If you're going to go after someone, at least have the stats right.
Also 5 clearances. Low game-time.

He wasn't great, but he was a long way from our worst. We need to back in the kids.
You are right. I must have misread the tackle stats.

Still an awful line from a full time midfielder.

3 kicks and 10 handballs - simply not enough of the ball, and reflective of him ot knowing how to get it properly - that kick to handball ratio is woeful. 54% disposal efficiency? Not good enough. 5 tackles is also awful when you are a clearances midfielder and your team is getting belted. Hopper and De Boer had 12 each. Dow wasn't alone in that area but had the most opportunity.

Right now Dow doesn't get the ball nearly enough. He doesn't gave scoreboard impact. He doesn't defend well. He has played 8 games this year and is averaging 11 disposals, 2 tackles and has kicked 1 goal for the year. He is simply off the pace.

Backing kids in doesn't mean playing them endlessly when they aren't succeeding. It means giving them what they need to develop and grow. He needs a long stretch this year in the reserves wher ehe just remembers how to get 25 touches. Then, he needs to bulk up and improve his fitness in the offseason and come back ready to do it in the seniors next year. It's painful playing him now and will destroy whatever confidence I have left. Would love to be proven wrong but I have seen literally nothing this year to indicate any other path forward.
 

Blue__Balls

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Openly shirks contests? He is ranked as elite for contested possession ratio.

Oh.. you mean that one contest where the 110kg Pittonet was running the other way and in a better position to collect the footy and release? Right.
Pitto was coming from the wrong side of the ball, running back towards the opposition goals, wasn't he? And he's a ruckman, not the cleanest below their knees.

I agree with you that it wasn't Dow "shirking contact" though. He just defaulted to what most of our players do....letting someone else take responsibility.
 

Stamos

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You are right. I must have misread the tackle stats.

Still an awful line from a full time midfielder.

3 kicks and 10 handballs - simply not enough of the ball, and reflective of him ot knowing how to get it properly - that kick to handball ratio is woeful. 54% disposal efficiency? Not good enough. 5 tackles is also awful when you are a clearances midfielder and your team is getting belted. Hopper and De Boer had 12 each. Dow wasn't alone in that area but had the most opportunity.

Right now Dow doesn't get the ball nearly enough. He doesn't gave scoreboard impact. He doesn't defend well. He has played 8 games this year and is averaging 11 disposals, 2 tackles and has kicked 1 goal for the year. He is simply off the pace.

Backing kids in doesn't mean playing them endlessly when they aren't succeeding. It means giving them what they need to develop and grow. He needs a long stretch this year in the reserves wher ehe just remembers how to get 25 touches. Then, he needs to bulk up and improve his fitness in the offseason and come back ready to do it in the seniors next year. It's painful playing him now and will destroy whatever confidence I have left. Would love to be proven wrong but I have seen literally nothing this year to indicate any other path forward.
How did his stats compare with Curnow, or Martin, or Williams, or Newman?
Senior players.
 

btdg

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How did his stats compare with Curnow, or Martin, or Williams, or Newman?
Senior players.
They were also bad. Dow is a center square midfielder though. Martin and Williams play different roles. God knows what we are doing to Ed Curnow at the moment too.

All 3 were pretty awful too. All 3 have more runs on the board, and have previously shown they are more capable. Dow hasn't, and his numbers are tracking down over time.

As I said, not giving up. He just has to go back and get back into the habit of hunting the ball again, and probably bulk up a bit too
 

Stamos

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They were also bad. Dow is a center square midfielder though. Martin and Williams play different roles. God knows what we are doing to Ed Curnow at the moment too.

All 3 were pretty awful too. All 3 have more runs on the board, and have previously shown they are more capable. Dow hasn't, and his numbers are tracking down over time.

As I said, not giving up. He just has to go back and get back into the habit of hunting the ball again, and probably bulk up a bit too
He needs to build confidence. Better chance of getting that in the ones at the moment.
 

BringFevBack2021

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Pitto was coming from the wrong side of the ball, running back towards the opposition goals, wasn't he? And he's a ruckman, not the cleanest below their knees.

I agree with you that it wasn't Dow "shirking contact" though. He just defaulted to what most of our players do....letting someone else take responsibility.
I see your point too, I read it as Pitto to collect and dish to Dow so Dow could kick it cleanly out of defence
 

Blue__Balls

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I see your point too, I read it as Pitto to collect and dish to Dow so Dow could kick it cleanly out of defence
I think relying on a ruckman to cleanly take a ground ball and then handball to a stationary teammate, while in our defensive 50, would be the lowest percentage play.

Contested mid to collect the ball on the move towards the corridor, ruckman to provide a block if necessary...much better.

Ultimately though, the fact that neither went for it indicates that we're both poorly drilled and the players don't trust their instincts. Well drilled and the players would know who goes, and any on-ballers instinct should be to secure a ground ball. Failed both tests.
 

btdg

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He needs to build confidence. Better chance of getting that in the ones at the moment.
Earlier in the year, Dow was given a run of games in the ones. I don't htink it helped build confidence at all - and that was when the team was travelling 'well'.

A measure I like to use for mid/forwards is pretty simple: disposals + tackles + score (ie goal = 6, pt = 1). Measure of 30 is a good game. 25-30 is minimum baseline for a midfielder. As a measuring stick: Sam Walsh has only had two games under 30 for the year (GWS was the first under 25).Ed Curnow: up until the Sydney game, had been above 25 every game, and 7/10 were above 30).

When Dow had a run of games earlier, using that metric he went:
Rd 1: 28
Rd 2: 15
Rd 3: 14
Rd 4: 11

No sign of confidence there. He had one 'pass' game, dropped to a level that is off the pace, and actually got worse. Rather than building confidence, it fell off.

Now he is back, with 19 (WC) then 18 (GWS). I just can't see how continually churning out sub-par midfield performances helps build confidence - particularly for a bloke who has now played 50 games at senior level.

MAybe we just have to agree to disagree, but I just think he needs to go back, rack up a string of games with 25+ touches and some scoreboard and tackle impact at reserves level, stop worrying about the AFL stuff this year and just get back to being a good footy player, without doing that as part of a team under massive scrutiny that is badly underperforming.

Let Ed Curnow, Williams, Martin etc wear the pressure - they are older and in the case of the latter two, well, a great big pile of money helps with resilience even if you are getting ripped in the media. Dow doesn't have past success to draw on, doesn't even have a history of playing well at AFL level... if he is to be saved I reckon we have to get him out of the spotlight asap.
 
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