Preview RND 17 - Carlton v Sydney Saturday 13th July 1.45PM (EST) @ SCG - Team Post #466

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FRUMPY

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 18, 2006
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Our numbers are skewed by the likes of Simmo at the top. Take him out and I'd be curious to see the averages are.
Funny these type of responses. People like to use the Ave Age, games played etc stats as proof we are so young. Then they show we are similar or older and then we have excuses - simpson skewes the stats etc. makes me laugh.
 

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FRUMPY

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 18, 2006
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About half their team is 6'2", give or take an inch, and no Sinclair/Naismith/Cameron, Buddy, Grundy.

Comparisons sorted by height:

McKay 204 / Reid 196
Casboult 201 / Melican 195
Kreuzer 200 / Aliir 195
Jones 199 / Blakey 195
Goddard 198 / McCartin 193
Cripps 195 / Dawson 192
Silvagni 194 / Rampe 189
Plowman 193 / Mills / 189
Setterfield 192 / Kennedy 189
Kennedy 190 / O'Riordan 187
Newman 187 / Hayward 187
Dow 187 / Hewett 187
Thomas 185 / Heeney 186
O'Brien 185 / Rowbottom 186
Walsh 184 / Florent 185
Lang 183 / Parker 183
Simpson 183 / Ronke 181
SPS 182 / Jones 181
Curnow 180 / Lloyd 181
Murphy 180 / Cunningham 181
Fisher 177 / Jack 178
Gibbons 175 / Papley 178
Im lost, do we win or lose based on the above or is it all just bullcrap statistics? good waste of 5-10mins of your time im tipping
 
Nov 8, 2000
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This is why you can't take too much notice of averages or statistical data that is presented. The parameters are open to manipulation to present whatever picture you want to present.
I think by and large we can look at physical development and experience side by side. We can consider that what a heap of 30+ year olds give us in experience, they may hand back in deterioration compared to a 150 game, 26 year old from the opposition.

We can see that our 21 year olds still need bigger bodies. We know that mature aged draftees have the body but not always the conditioning or experience.

It helps to see the names side by side.
 

FRUMPY

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 18, 2006
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I think by and large we can look at physical development and experience side by side. We can consider that what a heap of 30+ year olds give us in experience, they may hand back in deterioration compared to a 150 game, 26 year old from the opposition.

We can see that our 21 year olds still need bigger bodies. We know that mature aged draftees have the body but not always the conditioning or experience.

It helps to see the names side by side.
Is that because you read the name and base it on known ability/physical attributes (from having watched them play - and then allow for the personal bias towards such team/player) more than the age number or height/weight number?
 

CaptainCharisma

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Funny these type of responses. People like to use the Ave Age, games played etc stats as proof we are so young. Then they show we are similar or older and then we have excuses - simpson skewes the stats etc. makes me laugh.
I think overall averages for age/games can sometimes not mean much and you can get outliers that skew it a touch.

The way footywire.com groups games played into 50 brackets is definitely interesting to me, usually it shows most clubs we play have a lot more players in the 100-150 and 150+ brackets but this week it is almost the same in all categories.
 

Coops93

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Funny these type of responses. People like to use the Ave Age, games played etc stats as proof we are so young. Then they show we are similar or older and then we have excuses - simpson skewes the stats etc. makes me laugh.
Excuses or reasons?

1 guy who's 35 and has played 320 games is going to skew the averages fairly substantially. Even with that we're still the younger team majority of the time.
 

FRUMPY

Norm Smith Medallist
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Excuses or reasons?

1 guy who's 35 and has played 320 games is going to skew the averages fairly substantially. Even with that we're still the younger team majority of the time.
So when you or someone else uses these stats to prove us being younger against another team (ill use Brisbane) - you then also highlight the fact Hodge is skewing the results our way? Yeah, didn't think so.
 

Coops93

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So when you or someone else uses these stats to prove us being younger against another team (ill use Brisbane) - you then also highlight the fact Hodge is skewing the results our way? Yeah, didn't think so.
I don't make those arguments. Unless it's a particularly glaring difference I don't put much value in it at all.

However, if I was to make the argument I certainly would take that into consideration. Why wouldn't I? If McVeigh was playing this week the difference would virtually be cancelled out, but our senior vet is playing and there's isn't, so we look younger.
 

The Dominator7

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Sinclair had 40 hit outs, 16 possessions 8 marks (season high) and a goal this year and 26 hit outs 22 possessions (season high) 7 marks (equal season high) and 2 goals last year.
Franklin has 17 goals in his last 4 games against us.

Incredibly happy they aren't playing!
Following that train Macca43 I’m actually really interested in the game style we bring to the Swans this week given how they destroyed us off half back in R3. You can’t always read too much onto the stats we mugs have access to, but sometimes they don’t lie:
  • They had 4 of the top 6 ball getters, but it wasn’t midfielders, 3 of those 4 were Swans running backmen:
    • Lloyd 32 (2019 average 30.7)
    • Jones 31 (2019 average 23.3)
    • Kennedy 31
    • Crippa 28
    • Mills 28 (2019 average 18.6)
    • Walsh 28
  • So not only did they all have better than average disposal games (hugely improved in the case of Jones and Mills) they did so with less midfield time and a greater amount of time in the defensive half according to their heatmaps:
    • Lloyd 89% defensive half - season average 85%
    • Jones 64% defensive half - season average 56%
    • Mills 93% defensive half - season average 89%
So basically that tells me on a simplistic level that Horse went to school on Boltons shortening of the ground and just loaded up off half back, multiple switches, sharing around defensively to move our “zone” etc etc etc.

I really hope our MC has gone to school on how the Swans played us last time, note their specific injuries and structural changes and actually plan to take advantage rather than just react like we have been in game so far under DT....noting that we also have changed our style and lengthening the ground.

So what would I like to see (other than continuing to back ourselves or a midget dressed as a cowboy riding a tricycle)
  • Crippa and Ed head to head with Kennedy and Parker
  • Gibbo to play a lock down role on Lloyd - stop his cheapies
  • Kennedy V Mills
  • Fish and Sammy rotating on Jones - creative guys on HFF make him accountable and angry...
  • Jack to Heeney around the ground
  • Kruze to knee Aliir every centre bounce contest, make him pay Jared Brennan style for coming in the big man zone. Also have a specific plan for when Aliir stays down in the ruck contest. He got multiple clearances last week by roving. Kruze actually watches his opponent well so should pick this up, so please have a plan to either grab it from the ruck when he does this, or hit it past the congestion to pre-determined spots to the advantage of one of our wingers/on ballers - only need a touch of separation to get some good fwd 50 entries here.

TLDR: Don’t let their HBF’s run rampant this time (whoever they rotate through there) and don’t let Allir get away with staying down at ruck contests.

Go Blues!!
 

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Nov 8, 2000
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Ask me tomorrow
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Is that because you read the name and base it on known ability/physical attributes (from having watched them play - and then allow for the personal bias towards such team/player) more than the age number or height/weight number?
I look more towards the age ranges than the names although some of the names present or missing naturally add further weight.

I try not to let personal biases influence my thinking and if they do, it is not weighed in favour of the players I like i.e my own team.

Not all 24 year olds are equal in ability for example. However, that is a list management issue. If our lists are comparable in terms of age and experience and we lose, then we asked questions of our recruiters, coaches, fitness team etc. We just can't use youth and inexperience as an excuse on those occasions.
 

blue healer

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Excuses or reasons?

1 guy who's 35 and has played 320 games is going to skew the averages fairly substantially. Even with that we're still the younger team majority of the time.
Take out the oldest player in both sides and think you'll find we're still older.

Never been able to understand the glory of being the youngest team.
 

CJMB

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Aug 30, 2017
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Im lost, do we win or lose based on the above or is it all just bullcrap statistics? good waste of 5-10mins of your time im tipping
If it takes you 5-10 minutes to read and type 430 characters you probably need to get in touch with these fine folk: https://www.readingwritinghotline.edu.au/

If you think that somehow looking at a height comparison can predict game results then you might need more help than they can provide.
 

Healer

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Apr 16, 2018
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yeh, nah... forget all the ages, heights, starsigns... doing my head in for no particularly good reason, or practical benefit.
Talent, commitment, fitness and mongrel will get us over the line.
About time we really pounded a game home... no come from behind, head start stuff.
Crush em from go to whao. that will really give the boys some confidence.
 

F_therest

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 3, 2013
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Sinclair had 40 hit outs, 16 possessions 8 marks (season high) and a goal this year and 26 hit outs 22 possessions (season high) 7 marks (equal season high) and 2 goals last year.
Franklin has 17 goals in his last 4 games against us.

Incredibly happy they aren't playing!
Those 2, McVeigh, Jones & Heeney always seem to have good games against us.

Jones & Heeney have had inconsistent seasons but will probably be near BOG tomorrow...need to shut them down.
 
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