Preview Rnd 21 - Carlton v Richmond - Sunday 11th August 3:20PM @ MCG - Final Team - Post #399

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Bamboo Harvester

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HUGE challenge for the boys coming up against the premiership favorites. Both sides have been in good form after the bye, with Teaguey giving the Baggers a new lease of life and a sense of belief. A month and a half back, not many of us would have given us any chance, but we're now a big chance to be competitive and push them all the way.

It doesn't get any better than the traditional rivals coming up against each other at the G, with a crowd of 65-70,000 not out of the question on a Sunday twilight. For those of us who were around to see the rivalry from back in the 70's will appreciate the battles we've had over the years.....from the record score to win the 1972 Grand Final, to Balme knocking out Southby and Fowler shirtfronting Big Nick in the 1973 Grand Final.....Helen D'Amico baring it all in the 1982 Grand Final win....and the semi final in 2001 where Kouta went down with a serious knee injury, missing most of the 2002 season....through to the Judd vs Cousins showdown in round 1, 2009....and the Elimination Final in 2013 with Judd leading the revival, and Duigan heading down from the grandstand after munching down a pie as a last minute change, to kick 4 snags and be a match winner.

Just a bit of a collage of a few images that'll jog a few memories....

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Anyway, who will win and why....

Out most recent encounters don't work in our favour, so we will have to be at our best to take it up to them. For mine, they have system in their game that has been developed over the past few years that will win games more that they'll lose....regardless of the personnel they have at hand, similar to Melbourne Storm. If everyone know and plays their role, they're more than a 50/50 chance to win. We're probably not quite at that stage yet with our list build and new players coming in along with a new coach....but I see the Tigers as what we'll be in a few years once we have stability with our list and game strategy.

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source: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_comparison?mid=3521&team1_id=15&team2_id=4


I'm not a huge stats person, so won't go a Dermie type of analysis. For those who are, here are the important stats for the year, courtesy of Footywire (same link as above).
One thing that does stand out though is the uncontested possessions and average handballs comparison shows the outside game they play so well once they have the ball....force the turnover and swarm in numbers. Not easy to stop...

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Carlton
How we win
Team selection will be huge on the Thursday night, although again we won't know the final team until the day after. The addition of Jonesy will be vital to combat the twin 'towers' in the Richmond forward line, although Chol has also been up there in recent weeks, giving them three genuine marking forwards. The heat will be on Weiters and Jonesy....and a decision to be made if we go with an extra tall down back. Goddard's game against WCE will largely determine if he'll be retained, although his speed may become an issue with the swarm of Richmond smalls in the forward half. Hopefully Krooz will be back as well.

We need to be mindful of Richmond's relentless pressure and turnover, where they more often than not attack down the middle to open up the forward line. Similarly, we can't just bomb the ball into our forward half - Vlastuin/Astbury/Grimes just eat that stuff for breakfast. We've got to get the ball to the deck if we're not in a position to mark, and let Gibbo and his band of smalls create the pressure to keep the ball in the forward half. Harry needs to start clunking the marks and creating contest overhead, while Levi's form has been fantastic, and needs to keep hitting those packs at speed, and jagging 2 or 3 goals during the course. We've shown that we can create scoring opportunities now under Teague....since he took over the reigns, we're now sitting 4th in the AFL for 'points for' behind the Lions, Eagles and Tiges; ie 3 out of the top 4 teams currently on the ladder.

The midfield battle should be epic, with Crippa, Murph and Ed up against Dusty, Prestia and Lambert right in the guts. Richmond not really a side to tag or 'go with', so Crippa could have a field day. The Oxygen Brothers will also be crucial in running both offensively and defensively on the wide expanses of the G.

How they win
They're not the current premiership favorites for no reason.

They've won their last half a dozen or so games by an average of around 6-7 goals, so are building into the second half of the season. The possibly inclusion of Stack and Nankervis would also help bolster the side.

Richmond play a high pressure game that will eventually wear the opposition down, and open up the game during the second half. Cause the turnover, handball, kick to the spare in the guts, and a goal opportunity is created. The running style of game in waves with players like Rioli, Bolton, Castagna, Prestia and Edwards creates a swarm that can be impossible to defend for the entirety of the game.

The twin towers up forward are starting to gel as a unit, and Lynch has a history of tearing us a new one when he was with GCS.

The defence is also well organised, so if we just bomb it up forward under pressure, it'll bounce back with interest. Even without Rance, Astbury and Grimes have stepped up; and Vlastuin and Houli can carve you to pieces off half back if they're not accountable.

Key Players...

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Key match ups...

Crippa vs Martin
Ed vs Prestia
Weiters vs Reiwoldt
Jonesy vs Lynch
Walsh vs Castagna
SPS vs Stack
Plow vs Rioli
H vs Grimes
Levi vs Astbury
JSOS vs Vlastuin

Who wins
The heart says the Blues by 4 points, the head says maybe that's wishful thinking.
 
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spry

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Watching the dee’s play them gives me hope that we will ROLL them out of the centre and have the advantage with clearances. The tigs didn’t like the pressure and if the dees were a little cleaner they could have really challenged them.

Our recent tackling pressure has been good compared to dee’s and also think we are cleaner in spades.

Go blues


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THE_GUN

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Changes for the tigers would most likely be

Out: Chol , Butler ,Baker
In's : Nankervis , Stack (if fit) , McIntosh

Richmond were very untidy against the Dee's and should have put them away in the 1st quarter 15 scoring shots to 28 and inside 50's melb 37 - Richmond 70


Richmond 23 points
 

Mr_Plow

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Pending injury report.

In: Kreuzer, Jones, Thomas, McGovern
Out: Phillips, Goddard, Schumacher, Lang

Game on if these changes eventuate.

Cuningham also a consideration, but his VFL form today didn't warrant selection and he wasn't his usual light footed elusive self. Kennedy was really ineffective, so they might favour Cuningham's mobility for this one.

Cuningham's game against Richmond earlier in the year was stellar, that is also worth considering.
 

BigFrizz36

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Pending injury report.

In: Kreuzer, Jones, Thomas, McGovern
Out: Phillips, Goddard, Schumacher, Lang

Game on if these changes eventuate.

Cuningham also a consideration, but his VFL form today didn't warrant selection and he wasn't his usual light footed elusive self. Kennedy was really ineffective, so they might favour Cuningham's mobility for this one.

Cuningham's game against Richmond earlier in the year was stellar, that is also worth considering.
Pretty much agree with your changes (if Liam is available). Think that the opposition isn't as good as today's. Our side would be 20% better with these changes so we would be an outside chance.
 

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F_therest

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I know we're somewhat afraid of making changes, but....

IN: Kreuzer, Cuningham, Dow, Jones, McGovern and Thomas.
OUT: Phillips, Deluca, Kennedy, Schumacher, O'Brien & Lang.

It has nothing to do with dropping players but more to do with the promotion of some that may make a difference.
Not sure about Kreuzer but based on today's VFL game Cuningham isn't ready.
And wouldn't be dropping Kennedy unless he's injured...avg game today but had a number of handy games before that.

Also you have Jones in but Goddard not out?

Assuming Krooz & Cunners aren't ready...

IN: Jones/Thomas/McGovern
OUT: Goddard/Schumacher/Lang or Deluca

Dow was quite good today when the ball was in his area, but again his defensive running was poor and Richmond will carve him up...prefer the harder running Deluca for this week.
 

HARKER

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Not sure about Kreuzer but based on today's VFL game Cuningham isn't ready.
And wouldn't be dropping Kennedy unless he's injured...avg game today but had a number of handy games before that.

Also you have Jones in but Goddard not out?

Assuming Krooz & Cunners aren't ready...

IN: Jones/Thomas/McGovern
OUT: Goddard/Schumacher/Lang or Deluca

Dow was quite good today when the ball was in his area, but again his defensive running was poor and Richmond will carve him up...prefer the harder running Deluca for this week.
Cuningham is ready.
Basing any form on what is shown up via the NB's doesn't amount to much at all.

Cuningham vs Lang? Come on now. :)
 

F_therest

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Pending injury report.

In: Kreuzer, Jones, Thomas, McGovern
Out: Phillips, Goddard, Schumacher, Lang

Game on if these changes eventuate.

Cuningham also a consideration, but his VFL form today didn't warrant selection and he wasn't his usual light footed elusive self. Kennedy was really ineffective, so they might favour Cuningham's mobility for this one.

Cuningham's game against Richmond earlier in the year was stellar, that is also worth considering.
Agree if Kreuzer fit.

Cunners no way ready based on today's game...limited impact and limited minutes. Can't carry any underdone players against a hard running Richmond.
 

Mr_Plow

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Agree if Kreuzer fit.

Cunners no way ready based on today's game...limited impact and limited minutes. Can't carry any underdone players against a hard running Richmond.
Kreuzer certainly a priority against Nankervis, if he plays. Phillips is not a great match up there.

Agree about Cuningham, unfortunate, as he would have been really handy here.

I am certainly happy to persist with Deluca in preference to Lang.
 

Mr_Plow

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A couple of inclusions and we are right in this game
I agree. Structurally against Richmond, we need one extra tall target who can play deep when McKay leads to the wing. McGovern.

The rest of the inclusions are self explanatory.

If we can slow their ball movement through the corridor, a win is certainly possible.
 

Soapy V

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With any luck Kruezer Jones Thomas McGovern (Mk II) and Cuningham are fit and available.

It's just so important we keep up the good form for the rest of the year. 3 games to go. Also reckon we enjoy the MCG

Early call but I'd like to see

B: Thomas Jones Plowman
HB: SPS Weitering Newman
Foll: Kruezer Curnow Murphy
C: Setterfield Cripps O'Brien
HF: Cuningham Casboult Gibbons
F: McGovern McKay Garlett
Int: Simpson Walsh Jack Kennedy

Few changes but some needed and I want to see a few players. Schumacher unlucky

Hope see Cottrell and/or Owies before season is over
 
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No1Suspect

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Personally i think we match up well against the tigs. Im pretty bullish tbh, No cotchin no tag for cripps id say and we should go ok, i think Teagues game style will fair pretty well...

Crippa to run amok, gov to come in and kick 3.

Id also give Deluca a Job on Houli and obviously Ed to Dusty.

Baggers by 17.
 
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