Preview Rnd 4 - Carlton v Gold Coast, Saturday 10th Apr Metricon Stadium 7:25pm - Team post #931

[Bostonian]

Really doesn't matter what changes we make they'll all be questioned on here.

If Dow is dropped I doubt anyone would be surprised or overly annoyed.

If the team is going anywhere players have to earn their spot in the team.

As of last week Cottrell has earned his place in the side, Dow really hasn't.

 

[JustaBattler]

If Dow is dropped I doubt anyone would be surprised or overly annoyed.

If the team is going anywhere players have to earn their spot in the team.

As of last week Cottrell has earned his place in the side, Dow really hasn't.

Dow wasnt as bad as many make out but nor is he a direct swap for Cottrell - Cottrell wont be dropped to keep Dow in - he might be dropped to get Setterfield back in - and if Setterfield plays on a wing - it will advantage Suns.

 

[Coops93]

We are in a similar point of build to Swans, not Gold Coast. Their build is from last two or three drafts. Ours is from the 2015 draft. Big difference. Swans were playing new youngsters similar time we started the build with draftees like Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Silvagni and Cuningham. When I compare how we going developing our team right now we not tracking well as we should be imo. Losing to a side like Gold Coast would feel like losing to a side we got at least a two year head start of when we started on a genuine build mainly via the draft. That's the league wide perspective for me. If I look at the batches of youngsters of similar age it has always been Dogs or Swans I most track our progress compared with. Swans were behind us last year. It would be embarrassing to lose to Gold Coast or people have really slow progress expectations at our club. I've not really got over the loss to Hawks last year when I expected genuine forward steps to happen. From there we been very ordinary and a win over Fyfe less Dockers over here is our only thing to hang on right now. I want a lot more than that from my club. Even Saints I track our progress with more than a team like Gold Coast that had a complete re-set after they had May and Lynch gone.

Like I said, I think some are underestimating the Suns, and based on this you are also. They're not the easy beats of 3 years ago. There's a reason a lot of media folk are picking them and it's not because they're "haters".

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

Levi has to be dropped imo. McGov probably not fit enough for the heat and humidity. Big O seems a better choice and hopefully Gov will be right to go the following week vs Port. With Dow I am in two minds, should he be dropped for Stocker or not? I would lean to dropping him. Cottrell should stay in, his two-way running is fantastic. Hopefully he will make that wing his own in the coming weeks. Will Setters come back in, I kind of hope not as he was totally out of form anyway. We should win this, bloody well better win this. We need to get to two-two, this is a great opportunity to assert ourselves.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Prefer we should utilise Liam Jones as our relief ruck than continue to gift Levi games. Liam is a fierce 198cm competitor with a tank. Think he can equip himself quite well if given the opportunity.

From memory, Jones did some ruck work in the VFL prior to cementing his senior spot and did alright against some AFL listed players.

 

[Bostonian]

Dow wasnt as bad as many make out but nor is he a direct swap for Cottrell - Cottrell wont be dropped to keep Dow in - he might be dropped to get Setterfield back in - and if Setterfield plays on a wing - it will advantage Suns.

Easy enough to drop Dow to bring Setterfield back in and play him in the guts instead of Dow where Setters is most effective.

 

[gbatman]

Levi Casboult

30

Levi Casboult

Age

34

Ht

199cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

6.5

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.1

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

5.9

5star

T

1.3

2star

G

1.3

5star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.4

5star

's 7 odd hitouts per game and not doing much else and missing a lot of his few opportunities.

Or

McGovern who is probably likely to kick at least 3 goals per game under the new rules and in an improving side playing deep forward and be able to chase and pressure opposition and make the most of his opportunities.

We are pretty much picking Casboult for those 7 odd hitouts and to have someone to bomb to (bad footy).

The answer is pretty clear, it doesn't really matter how well McGovern rucks as long as he gives a contest, we are going to be miles and miles better as a team with this change if McGovern gives us what we know he can up forward.

As for Silvagni, his ability to play as a small and medium leading forward has been really valuable and he fits into this setup as well. One of the areas we have struggled in in recent seasons and one of the most important parts of footy is being able to get the footy in a controlled situation between 50 and 70 meters from goal. Silvagni has been awesome for us in doing this this season either by leading hard in this area or pinpointing players in this area. For what it's worth Casboult has been detrimental to achieving this as he encourages us to bomb and doesn't have the running capacity to get to this spot as a free and safe option to go to. Our improvement this year is in our short kicking game and that comes from good kicking skills and players capable of running hard enough to get free.

 

[footyfan1978]

Like I said, I think some are underestimating the Suns, and based on this you are also. They're not the easy beats of 3 years ago. There's a reason a lot of media folk are picking them and it's not because they're "haters".

I'm not underestimating the Suns at all. I question our progress and think we should have a lot higher expectations for a team that has been building from the 2015 draft to be a premiership outfit this decade. It is time we expect to be not just in middle of ladder but pushing for top 4 status but right now we barely count as middle of ladder side with most. That is really poor progress if we are scratching around expecting losses as our norm.

 

[BlueBlood15]

No competition?

I hope the players respect the opposition a little more than that.

They’ve got injuries (so do we) but they’re a good up and coming side. Cannot afford to take them lightly.

Agreed.

They’re young but well drilled. Number 1 in the competition for tackles and number 4 for contested possessions. They will have a crack. We need to be switched on otherwise they very well may expose us.

 

[Blue since 72]

Carlton desperately need to move on from Casboult and also get McGovern into that team. I feel McGovern working with McKay as a leading target would be dynamite up forward. The way we are playing and the way the game is with the new rules should suit McGovern big time. It definitely does not suit Casboult types at all and to be honest having a big tall player we can bomb to doesn't encourage us to play good football.

The new rules have brought in tallish quick leading forwards into the game and that is what McGovern is and IMO he's the best player to get the ball to because unlike Silvagni, McKay and especially Casboult he is a very good kick for goal.

However this means we need to use McGovern as a relief ruckman and he just may not be fit enough for this this week. IMO this is the change we absolutely must be making.

To put it into perspective, Casboult had 7 hitouts last week and kicked no goals. I'd gladly give the opposition those 7 hitouts to have McGovern in the side who is going to kick goals and provide some forward pressure. I do not rate the second ruck at all if they can't play footy. It's an overrated position.

On Dow. He and Stocker are probably at similar levels. I have always liked Stocker better as he's harder at it and a better kick. Stocker is a year younger and that can mean a lot for young players. Both are good enough to get a game but are still not good enough to be set in stone inside our best 22. IMO we need to rotate both players in and out of the side. Dow has had a good run in the seniors but is due to go back to the reserves and play a bit of footy there where he can get good numbers and work on his outside game which needs to improve. Stocker needs to have a good taste of senior footy. IMO we need to keep doing this until it gets to a point where one or both of them are performing to a level where we really want them in the seniors. At this stage it's important for us to play both.

I think we need to give both these players exposure but perhaps not at the same time. We also need to give them time as primary onballers where we use them at stoppages a bit because we aren't really doing that. We're using guys like Cripps, Walsh, Williams and Curnow and these guys have to play around them which is fair, they are the senior crew but I can't help but think that this isn't overly good for their development. Dow was drafted as a primary onballer but comes in and plays half forward and as a midfielder who has to play around our other midfielders rather than be the target of our ruck setup or as a tagger where he's at the coal face. I get he needs to be able to play that role however this is not what got him drafted and not what we drafted him as. Tricky situation, play to win or play to develop or find a happy balance.

I'd love to see some changes come to this side but I am not getting my hopes up. As is often the case you get exposed against two decent sides then you cop a crap one and belt them and all is forgotten, the heat is off and the changes that need to happen don't. I think Setterfield will come in for Dow and we will beat a lowly Gold coast team and next week we will come up against a strong Port side and those players who let us down against Richmond and Collingwood will bob up again in discussion. Hopefully not but time will tell. Fingers crossed we win, we have guys in the VFL put their hands up and we improve.

Well said.

While I've been pretty hot on Setters for Dow this week am absolutely warming to Stocker as another option for Dow. Think McGov will come in for Levi if the MC believe Pitt can go it alone with perhaps some token rucking by a JSOS or Jones (Mitch can go back to cover) for example.

Would be a good warmer for Mitch for next week against Port (surely the MC will look at how West Coast took Port apart), and just on that Lloyd showed some great vision of how WC's forward line sets up, something we could certainly take note of with our forward talls.

Totally agree on Dow and will continue to rant about this preoccupation with every player having to be able to play multiple roles. Your second last paragraph has nailed it as far as I'm concerned, Dow is a mid and that's that and needs to be given some lead responsibility at the coal face (if they want to find out what he's really capable of).

Perhaps the club needs to look at who it is drafting going forward if they want a team of utilities.

 

[thylacine60]

Think Carlton of the last (insert number of years here) or so. "Inconsistent" in the dictionary has a picture of Carlton next to it.

You have to earn sustained favouritism.

those were the days.........

 

[thylacine60]

Agreed.

They’re young but well drilled. Number 1 in the competition for tackles and number 4 for contested possessions. They will have a crack. We need to be switched on otherwise they very well may expose us.

rankine terrifies me............

 

[__Bobcat__]

You clearly didn’t pay any attention to the work Eddie does without the ball. I don’t blame you, not many do.

 

[Gethelred]

Think Carlton of the last (insert number of years here) or so. "Inconsistent" in the dictionary has a picture of Carlton next to it.

You have to earn sustained favouritism.

I mean, I quite agree with that. Just, GC have an awful lot of injuries, and QLD teams (where the majority of the games were played last year) should hold zero fear for the sides that hubbed up there.

It's not being treated as a coin toss by pundits, it's being treated as a probable GC win. I don't see how they can on one hand say that Carlton should be making finals this season (otherwise, catastrophe and mayhem ensue) but that we should go into a game against a bottom 8 team suffering an injury crisis to their KPP stocks as underdogs.

 

[Gethelred]

rankine terrifies me............

If we get Rankined (akin to the way teams sometimes get Buddied) I'm probably going to be mad for all of five minutes, before watching the highlights and dreaming of Eddie getting him for us.

 

[Bostonian]

Levi Casboult's 7 odd hitouts per game and not doing much else and missing a lot of his few opportunities.

Or

McGovern who is probably likely to kick at least 3 goals per game under the new rules and in an improving side playing deep forward and be able to chase and pressure opposition and make the most of his opportunities.

We are pretty much picking Casboult for those 7 odd hitouts and to have someone to bomb to (bad footy).

The answer is pretty clear, it doesn't really matter how well McGovern rucks as long as he gives a contest, we are going to be miles and miles better as a team with this change if McGovern gives us what we know he can up forward.

As for Silvagni, his ability to play as a small and medium leading forward has been really valuable and he fits into this setup as well. One of the areas we have struggled in in recent seasons and one of the most important parts of footy is being able to get the footy in a controlled situation between 50 and 70 meters from goal. Silvagni has been awesome for us in doing this this season either by leading hard in this area or pinpointing players in this area. For what it's worth Casboult has been detrimental to achieving this as he encourages us to bomb and doesn't have the running capacity to get to this spot as a free and safe option to go to. Our improvement this year is in our short kicking game and that comes from good kicking skills and players capable of running hard enough to get free.

Casboult is there to either clunk a mark, crash a pack or bring the ball to the ground for our small forwards.

He also demands a bigger bodied defender to stand him which takes them away from a forward like a McGovern or Silvagni who can then potentially get a size mismatch.

 

[17SetMeFree]

The other conundrum is that it's hard to adjust to the speed and intensity of the seniors if you aren't playing in them.
It even took Walsh time to adjust to this and he was ready made, playing from day dot and breaking records. His disposal wasn't great because he was always rushed from misjudging time and space. We're only starting to see big improvement from him now.
If Stocker is knocking down the door now, then now is when he needs his chance(omissions permitting of course). He will adapt in time. The problem I have with the young guys or the guys that have been on the list a few years but haven't played many senior games, when they do get a chance, if they play one poor game, they're straight back out again. Then they go back to the VFL, dominate and wait for their next chance. A player like that should be getting 2-4 games in a row to have a chance to adapt, adjust and show some improvement at that level.
If they show no improvement over those 2-4 games, they go back having had a decent taste and identifying some areas to improve on.
IMO the senior players are the ones that need to be dropped quicker when they are out of form. Levi, for example, shouldn't be getting 3 absolute stinkers in a row (not like his preseason form was much better). The danger for him now, is that after his 3rd stinker, we've had a big win and there's every possibility we don't make any changes for this week's game and Levi gets a chance to have an OK game because GC have no ruck.

Good Points you make.

and i agree that young players should be blooded, in blocks of 3 games x 1 at a time , If they bang on the door to stay, then they select themselves
It seems, they are blooded only when an opportunity opens through injury, rather than the principles of meritocracy. Its why we are what we are after 17 years

 

[17SetMeFree]

I am intrigued a bit by how many people externally think we'll lose this.

The question should be "how many think they will beat us"

there's a difference

 

[blue healer]

If we get Rankined (akin to the way teams sometimes get Buddied) I'm probably going to be mad for all of five minutes, before watching the highlights and dreaming of Eddie getting him for us.

Hopefully after Eddied Betts'es GCS

 

[Blue since 72]

I mean, I quite agree with that. Just, GC have an awful lot of injuries, and QLD teams (where the majority of the games were played last year) should hold zero fear for the sides that hubbed up there.

It's not being treated as a coin toss by pundits, it's being treated as a probable GC win. I don't see how they can on one hand say that Carlton should be making finals this season (otherwise, catastrophe and mayhem ensue) but that we should go into a game against a bottom 8 team suffering an injury crisis to their KPP stocks as underdogs.

People look at us as essentially a laughing stock over the last 20 years.

Once again I'll mention West Coast's summation of Carlton someone recently quoted from I think the Amazon series, "Carlton, up for the contest but not the fight". They wouldn't be the only club out there that think this and you can include numerous "experts", supporters and neighbour's dogs in that too.

We have such a storied history of success prior to that period we became a club everyone loved to hate. To date this century we have achieved nothing worth noting and a lot of people are loving that and it will still colour people's views of Carlton as anything but a serious contender and tbh rightly so.

The pressure on this team is enormous from all quarters but they need to find a way to suck that up and spit it back out in wins and then more wins.

 

[CJMB]

Despite Levi's short comings he evidenced increased mobility in the game against Freo V complete immobility against Collingwood and Richmond. If he is on the improve I think we can then go to Teague's favoured 3 contested marking forward set up - and not compromise some emerging regularity regarding center ball structures.

My main concern with forward line stucture is that none of Dow | Murphy| Fogarty| Gibbons | Jack are reliable kicks at goal - and none of them is a good contested mark. We are playing with midfielders in the forward lines and that is why the side rarely scores easy - despite pressure on the improve - most non Harry goals last week were scrappy.

So adding McGovern who knows how to lead and mark and is a better than 50/50 chance of kicking set shots is a no brainer improvement to the forward line.

From a structural point of view - it ends up being a choice between dropping Dow or Jack for a McGovern inclusion. Gibbo offers more general field play than Dow. If Levi gets dropped it will to get him fit for the next two games - if he is fit he shoudl play - I dont beleive in weakening a structure to make way for questionable part timers already filling forward roles.

I think if we sacrifice Levi because thtey have no rucks - we are playing into their hands and levelling teh playing field too much. Better to drop one of the mid/forwards to add a genuine forward who can also mark further upfield on opposiute side of Cripps - since neither Newnes ( in good form) or Cottrell on wings are contested marking players - unless in clear space they dont represent exit options from defense.

From that group - Dow | Murphy| Fogarty| Gibbons | Jack - there's two names I'd consider but one definitely won't be dropped.

Dow wasnt as bad as many make out but nor is he a direct swap for Cottrell - Cottrell wont be dropped to keep Dow in - he might be dropped to get Setterfield back in - and if Setterfield plays on a wing - it will advantage Suns.

Yep. Let the wings be split between Newnes & Cottrell as the 'full timers' (more or less) with Walsh/Williams/Fogarty/Gibbons/SPS/Murph/etc making up the difference.

 

[__Bobcat__]

6 tackles in 3 games too

Don't get fooled by the tackle stat.
Its an attempted tackle.

 

[Blue__Balls]

McGovern is a one trick pony.

Not sure he offers any more than Casboult does.

There's several things Casboult can bring to the team that McGovern doesn't.

That's not to say Casboult should hold his spot but we're a better team with him firing than we are with McGovern if you have to pick between the two.

Not sure that's the case.

Gov can jump, mark, is decent at ground level, is a very good set shot, is a very good field kick, covers ground quickly and can lay some very strong tackles. He's also (generally) a smarter forward foil and applies some decent blocks for teammates.

Levi can crunch a pack harder, can chip in for 5-10 ruck contests a game, and gives us a passable stationary target in the square.

The biggest issue with Gov seems to be in consistency of application/impact. But that's not exactly a strength of Levi's either.

Horses for courses - if Gov is four-quarter-fit then we should be getting him in to try and make the most of the new rules, and because after kicking 7.5 Harry is going to be attracting a heap of attention which should allow Gov to get on his bike for a few easy marks on the lead.

 

[Stephene]

same pressure, same intent,= same result..... IMHO....GO BLUES

 

[CJMB]

Good Points you make.

and i agree that young players should be blooded, in blocks of 3 games x 1 at a time , If they bang on the door to stay, then they select themselves
It seems, they are blooded only when an opportunity opens through injury, rather than the principles of meritocracy. Its why we are what we are after 17 years

What if, for arguments sake, we've got a really settled lineup with no changes and Cripps/Walsh/Williams/Harry/Weitering/etc miss one week due to a suspension or personal leave?

Do we drop someone else to bring them back in and allow the younger player to get his 'mandatory' 3 game block?

Or what if they come in and they're absolutely f****** terrible and clearly need to go back to the reserves and work on their game or fitness?

Best available 22 is a week to week proposition.