Preview Rnd 6 - Carlton v Hawthorn Sunday April 28th 3.20PM @ UTAS

Benaly28

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Just to keep expectations in check, Hawthorn kicked a score against Geelong that would have beaten us in all but one match in about the last 18 months.

It doesn’t mean we can’t win. But for where we are at right now, it does mean we have to bring our very best.
That says a lot about their defence,pretty confident ours holds up.
 

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Very true...They are so clean with the ball and have mastered the practice of keeping possession and patiently getting the ball into their 50. They have scored 87, 87, 87, 69 and 90 so far. So we probably need to score a decent score to get over them.
Very good analysis Accidental. Four of their five scores this year beat us in all but one game over the last 18 months.

I thought people were unnecessarily downbeat after Gold Coast, and now the pendulum looks to have swung the other way.
 
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Very good analysis Accidental. Four of their five scores this year beat us in all but one game over the last 18 months.

I thought people were unnecessarily downbeat after Gold Coast, and now the pendulum looks to have swung the other way.
We’ll be up and about and you’ll like it.
 

Blue and Blue

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Very true...They are so clean with the ball and have mastered the practice of keeping possession and patiently getting the ball into their 50. They have scored 87, 87, 87, 69 and 90 so far. So we probably need to score a decent score to get over them.
Isn't it funny. Not a word about them not kicking 100...or other teams.
 
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Warning: for those with an aversion to boxes or ticking, there’s a lot of hypothetical box ticking in the post that follows.

Despite the Tassie factor, I believe that if we play to our potential we’re every chance to beat an under-strength Hawks this week, and in the process to tick the “back-to-back wins” box for the first time since June 2017. If we do get up, then at the same time we’d also be ticking the “win outside of Melbourne and the Gold Coast” box for the first time in three years, and for only the second time under Bolton’s reign (no doubt most of us will recall the glorious but ugly 4 point win over the Dockers in Perth in April 2016).

Anyway, even if we can’t quite manage a win against the Hawks, as a bare minimum I’m hoping that we’ll be able to tick the “competitive after a win” box. I realise that this particular box might not get the pulse racing, but in all seriousness I think it’s crucial, because in the week immediately following our last 3 wins (dating back to round 22 in 2017), we’ve lost to the staggering aggregate tune of 294 points - that is, after our last 3 wins, we went on to lose the very next week by 81 points, 109 points, and 104 points respectively. What this sobering pattern suggests to me is that over the past 22 months, we’ve struggled so damned hard to achieve a win that having finally done so we’ve collapsed in a collective psychological heap the very next game. Even if we lose against the Hawks then, as long as we start switched on and we remain competitive throughout then it’s another meaningful sign of progress, in a season where (as Bolts is always reminding us) our win-loss ratio is important, but not all important.
 

Blue and Blue

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Warning: for those with an aversion to boxes or ticking, there’s a lot of hypothetical box ticking in the post that follows.

Despite the Tassie factor, I believe that if we play to our potential we’re every chance to beat an under-strength Hawks this week, and in the process to tick the “back-to-back wins” box for the first time since June 2017. If we do get up, then at the same time we’d also be ticking the “win outside of Melbourne and the Gold Coast” box for the first time in three years, and for only the second time under Bolton’s reign (no doubt most of us will recall the glorious but ugly 4 point win over the Dockers in Perth in April 2016).

Anyway, even if we can’t quite manage a win against the Hawks, as a bare minimum I’m hoping that we’ll be able to tick the “competitive after a win” box. I realise that this particular box might not get the pulse racing, but in all seriousness I think it’s crucial, because in the week immediately following our last 3 wins (dating back to round 22 in 2017), we’ve lost to the staggering aggregate tune of 294 points - that is, after our last 3 wins, we went on to lose the very next week by 81 points, 109 points, and 104 points respectively. What this sobering pattern suggests to me is that over the past 22 months, we’ve struggled so damned hard to achieve a win that having finally done so we’ve collapsed in a collective psychological heap the very next game. Even if we lose against the Hawks then, as long as we start switched on and we remain competitive throughout then it’s another meaningful sign of progress, in a season where (as Bolts is always reminding us) our win-loss ratio is important, but not all important.
I reckon none of that will be mentioned. They will prepare and play their own game that is quite well defined now. And that should be enough to be in it. A win is on the cards simply because we are no longer that easybeat side of experienced battlers and not fit enough yet young triers.
 
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I reckon none of that will be mentioned. They will prepare and play their own game that is quite well defined now. And that should be enough to be in it. A win is on the cards simply because we are no longer that easybeat side of experienced battlers and not fit enough yet young triers.
Yeah, I’ve wondered B&B whether it would be mentioned by the coaches or senior players, to serve as a cautionary tale and to set a challenge for the players, or whether the emphasis would simply be on replicating the usual process. Even if it’s not raised with the players though, I think it’s worth us supporters keeping in mind, so that if a - dare I say it? - “honourable loss” eventuates against the Hawks it doesn’t lead to a forum meltdown.
 
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Jabba73

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A win can do funny things to young players who have experienced plenty of losses. Some will think they have finally made it and drop off slightly in intensity or effort while others will find the belief or confidence that has been lacking.

Backing up the win with another one will show we are maturing as a club. Expectations will change, as will the external narrative about the club.
 

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A win can do funny things to young players who have experienced plenty of losses. Some will think they have finally made it and drop off slightly in intensity or effort while others will find the belief or confidence that has been lacking.

Backing up the win with another one will show we are maturing as a club. Expectations will change, as will the external narrative about the club.
If they want to experience that feeling again as much as we do I think we will see a very competitive game.


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Not great on paper but Hawks play a team game as well as anyone

Jack on Sicily might be an option
LOB could play on Scully or Smith
Our defence matches up well and is in great form
Midfield the key for us and our use inside 50
If we are focussed and disciplined we can win

Win this and it's a big step forward
And win by 26 points. The percentage is the next ton we need to break.
 
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A win can do funny things to young players who have experienced plenty of losses. Some will think they have finally made it and drop off slightly in intensity or effort while others will find the belief or confidence that has been lacking.

Backing up the win with another one will show we are maturing as a club. Expectations will change, as will the external narrative about the club.
Agree with all of that Jabba, and I think that the bit in bold is a really important point.

While I’m in stats mode, if we can manage it, a victory over the Hawks would see Bolts’s win ratio tracking at 33% for the season, which would be better than it was at the end of his three previous seasons with us (it was 32% in 2016, 27% in 2017, and just 9% last year). I think that stat alone places our supposedly disastrous start to the season into context, especially if you also factor in our significant improvement in percentage. The ship is turning, even if some of the BF crew can sometimes seem on the verge of mutiny.
 
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haveago

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lets talk about Sunday, light rain in Launceston. Hope it is not enough to curtail BIG HARRY's marking. Does Sicily go to him? He will be too strong/tall for him. Charlie on Henderson on one wing , I don't reckon Clarko would like that match up. Charlie might though. And I would like to see Ed go to young Worpol. He has become IMO their most important clearance player with Mitchell going down. Play him tight and let Crippa and SPS do what they did last week, dominate the clearances!!!!! It will be tough but I firmly believe we will win and the odds are a joke.
Our defence is going as well, if not better than anybody's and the Hawks forwards are only just going. Take it on like last week and run em off their legs.
GO BLUEBOYS
 
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HBF

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From the AFL Injury List:

Stratton, who was a late withdrawal against Geelong, and Shiels are set to provide the Hawks with a welcome boost against Carlton. The club also allayed fears in-form ruckman McEvoy could be out for several weeks and he will play this weekend if he passes a fitness test. Burgoyne is another week off. Minchington is set to turn out in brown and gold for the first time in the VFL on Saturday, while Koschitzke, Ross and Walker have to pass tests to join him at Box Hill.
No Burgoyne helps. If we play like we did on Sunday we're a big chance.
 
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