Road to the 2016 American Presidential Election

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The Republicans really need to get behind one non-Trump candidate. As per usual they look on course to screw themselves over during the primaries. If Sanders gets up (I don't expect him to), then a generation younger Rubio, as the 'young' Hispanic would likely trounce an old white, socialist. Dear God for the world either way if it's Trump vs. Sanders.
 
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2 Republicans dropped out of the race overnight, NJ governor Chris Christie and businesswoman Carly Fiorina. So down to 6
The outsiders Donald Trump and the sliding Dr Ben Carson
The maverick Senator Ted Cruz
The establishment candidates, Senator Marco Rubio, current Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

Next week is South Carolina primaries - the hard right candidates will win there and then there are the Washington state caucuses but they dont give any delegates until a May vote so I dont know how that works. On the 23rd is Nevada.

Then on the 1st March is Super Tuesday
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virgina, Wyoming.

There is probably 1 or 2 states that all 6 will do well in that group of 14 states, but soon after that it will down to 3 or 4 candidates.
 

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Ford Fairlane said:
It's an uninspiring assortment on both sides.
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I reckon there is a decent bit of the Bill Clinton about John Kasich. They worked together closely on getting the budget balanced and into surplus although they were from the opposite sides. Both are good at working with people from the other side, which every other candidate of the 2 parties isn't talking about. He is refusing to go negative and his ads are preaching the positive - very Bill Clinton like - and people are saying they like that.

Kasich is like Clinton that his stump speeches go on a fair bit, they both say they want to have a 15 minute meeting which usually goes for 3 hours, they both like the details rather than the sound bite, but both can deliver a cutting sound bite, they both became massively popular governor's of their state, Clinton just winning a first two year term and then losing, and then easily winning the next one and maintaining that popularity over a decade, and Kasich just winning the first time for four year term and then won 2:1 the second time. Clinton lost his dad in an automobile accident when he was 3 months, Kasich lost his mum and dad in an automobile accident to a drunk driver when he was mid 30's. Both have said how big a factor that is in shaping their life. Clinton was left of centre on a lot of things but went to the right on cutting welfare and government spending and reforming the government in non traditional democrat areas and pissing off a big chunk of the party, Kasich is right of centre, on such issues as guns, abortion, tough on unions, and cutting taxes. The NY Times has endorsed him, but said he isn't a moderate, which Kasich agrees he isnt, but has talked about not being able to overnight kick out 11 million illegal immigrants and tearing up families, he talks about, having economic growth and then reaching out to those who "live in the shadows," and help the mentally ill, the drug addicted, the working poor, the developmentally disabled to rise and help people in minority communities, saying conservative principles mean not only a few rise but everybody rises. "so they can live their god given purposes." That sort of talk puts off a lot of conservatives in the party.

Just like Clinton was heavily inspired by Kennedy and meeting him at the Whitehouse when he was 16, Kasich is heavily inspired by Reagan and working on his 1976 campaign when he was 24. Like Reagan was able to win over blue collar Democrats, Kasich has been able to do that in Ohio. He has to get past Super Tuesday before the election cycle gets in his favour and the big states like Michigan, Texas, Pennsylvania with a big blue collar base gets to hold their primaries.
 
Americans are angry at the government over the economy, immigration and terrorism. The republicans in particular are looking for extreme and easy solutions hence the popularity of Trump and Cruz.

Moderate sensible candidates like Kasich and Bush are not being heard.
 
The conundrum for Kasich.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/02/new_national_poll_finds_john_k.html
Despite lagging in support among Republican primary voters, Ohio Gov. John Kasich currently is the GOP's best chance by far against Hillary Clinton in the November election, a new national poll found.

The USA Today / Suffolk University poll, released Wednesday, found Kasich would beat Clinton 49 percent to 38 percent in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. The next-closest Republican candidate is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who the poll shows leading Clinton 48 percent to 42 percent.

The poll showed businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as being neck-and-neck with Clinton, 44 percent to 43 percent, and 45 to 44 percent, respectively. The margin of error for the poll, conducted between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15, is plus or minus 3 percent.

But Kasich does not fare so well with likely Republican primary voters, who actually will pick the Republican presidential candidate. In this group, Kasich polled at 7 percent, good for fourth place in the six-candidate primary race. Trump received 35 percent, followed by Cruz (20 percent), Rubio (16 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (6 percent) and Dr. Ben Carson (4 percent).

The poll supports a central argument from Kasich's presidential campaign — that he stands the best chance in November against Clinton, the former U.S. senator and secretary of state who has been viewed as the most likely Democratic candidate.

But it also illustrates Kasich's main challenge — convincing Republican voters, who so far have favored candidates perceived as political outsiders, to instead support a more-moderate Republican governor with longstanding ties to the government. While Kasich has managed to raise his profile with a second-place finish in this month's New Hampshire GOP primary, he clearly still has his work cut out for him...........
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/02/new_national_poll_finds_john_k.html
 
Clinton unfortunately beat Sanders in the latest Democratic primary. Trump winning South Carolina with 32% (at present), but Bush 8% dropping out. Rubio and Cruz at 22% each gives hope that the non whack jobs (Trump and Cruz), can get most of Bush's 8% and Carsons 7% (if he drops out for the good of everyone) to finally start getting behind a decent candidate.

One or two more sure to drop out after Super Tuesday, hopefully it's not too late by then.
 
Schulzenfest said:
Imagine if the election ended up being Sanders versus Trump? Would have to be the most extremely diametrically opposed candidates in election history.
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either 30% or 75% of the electorate will turn up to vote, and not the stock standard 52%.
 
Bush and his Super Pacs have spent about $120mil in the last 6 months for less than 10% of the Republican vote in 3 primaries/caucuses.

If a lot of that is establishment monies, then Rubio and Kasich will be the big winners as the monies will move towards them.

Super Tuesday will sort out things a bit more and we will be down to 3 or 4. Carson is history. Trump and Cruz will go all the way to the convention. Kasich will go on until the big blue collar states ie Michigan 8th, home state Ohio 15th and Pennsylvania late April and then assess. Rubio will go until Florida 15th. If he doesnt do well in his home state ie 1st or 2nd then he might quit. If he goes on then he will go until late April or May, maybe all the way to the convention.
 
The Bush dynasty is over. The Washington Post confirms that about $120m was spent the last 6 months trying to make Jeb President. Bush's direct committee had spent about $24mil and the Super Pac according to the Washington Post article had spent $96mil. Trump has spent about $14mil and about 85% of that his own money as he says he is refusing monies from any official Super Pacs but the press seems to keep finding connections. Only Kasich has spent less than Trump as at the end of January, but I think he has raised more than Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics-live/liveblog/live-blog-s-c-gop-primary-and-nevada-democratic-caucuses-are-today/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_no-name:liveblog/promo#3123f21e-a3ba-4475-8e99-0e293b9e4d13
As former Florida governor Jeb Bush suspended his presidential bid Saturday night, new details were trickling in about the massive investments the Right to Rise super PAC made to prop up his candidacy. As of Saturday, the group had raced through at least $95.7 million out of the $118.6 million it had collected by the end of January, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Almost $87 million went into a barrage of television ads, online videos, slick mailers and voter phone calls. The group flew an airplane with a banner mocking Donald Trump over a rally of his supporters, produced a 15-minute documentary detailing Bush’s biography, sent Bush supporters individual video players, took out a billboard mocking Trump and crammed the airwaves in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the final days, Right to Rise kept the spigot on, dumping another $1.9 million into South Carolina and Nevada.

To no avail. Bush’s favorable rating actually plummeted over the course of the campaign, falling from 63 percent in July to 44 percent in January, according to Washington Post-ABC News polls of Republicans nationally. [Jeb Bush suspends 2016 campaign]

The super PAC’s failure to help Bush gain traction will be one of the most scrutinized aspects of his failed candidacy, in part because he built his strategy around having the well-funded group by his side. The former governor installed his longtime adviser Mike Murphy at its helm, and spent the first half of last year helping sock millions of dollars into the super PAC — all while maintaining he had still not decided to run
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics-live/liveblog/live-blog-s-c-gop-primary-and-nevada-democratic-caucuses-are-today/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_no-name:liveblog/promo#3123f21e-a3ba-4475-8e99-0e293b9e4d13
 
I mentioned the Kasich conundrum before and even he is trying to play off it so the money keeps rolling in and he can play the long game, the marathon pace not the sprint and do a classic tortoise over hare over the rest of the field. He has put these images up on his twitter account.






 

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Washington Post's up to date count on how much money is behind each campaign, ie to 20th February. So far $3/4 of a billion has been raised and you can probably times that by 5 if Trump isnt the Republican Nominee by November. If he is, it will be interesting to see how much he will accept from fundraising and Super Pacs.

Two or three of the percentage of campaign $$$ spent ( ie non Super Pac $$$) listed below don't make sense, but I think that's because they didn't update the percentage when they updated the dollars figures.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/campaign-finance/
Democrats: $242.8 million
Of the $242.8 million donated so far to support Democratic candidates, 19 percent has been raised by super PACs and other independent groups.
TOP CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISER Clinton $130.0 million
CANDIDATE WITH THE TOP SUPER PAC Hillary Clinton $53.1 million

Republicans: $554.9 million
Of the $554.9 million donated so far to support Republican candidates, 56 percent has been raised by super PACs and other independent groups.
TOP CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISER Ben Carson $57.8 million
CANDIDATE WITH THE TOP SUPER PAC Jeb Bush $124.1 million

Those still in the race
Hillary Clinton $183.1 mil
The presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton raised $130.0 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $53.1 million. (71% campaign funds 29% Super Pacs). The campaign has $38.0 million in cash on hand, spending 68 percent of what it has raised so far.

Bernie Sanders $98.5 mil
The presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders raised $96.2 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $2.3 million. (98% campaign funds 2% Super Pacs). The campaign has $28.3 million in cash on hand, spending 62 percent of what it has raised so far.



Ted Cruz $100.8 mil
The presidential campaign of Ted Cruz raised $54.6 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $46.2 million. (54% campaign funds 46% Super Pacs). The campaign has $13.6 million in cash on hand, spending 75 percent of what it has raised so far.

Marco Rubio $87.6 mil
The presidential campaign of Marco Rubio raised $37.6 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $49.9 million. (43% campaign funds 57% Super Pacs).The campaign has $5.1 million in cash on hand, spending 88 percent of what it has raised so far.

Ben Carson $70.1 mil
The presidential campaign of Ben Carson raised $57.8 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $12.3 million. (82% campaign funds 18% Super Pacs). The campaign has $4.1 million in cash on hand, spending 93 percent of what it has raised so far.

John Kasich $28.8 mil
The presidential campaign of John Kasich raised $8.6 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $20.1 million. (30% campaign funds 70% Super Pacs). The campaign has $1.5 million in cash on hand, spending 83 percent of what it has raised so far.

Donald Trump $25.3 mil
The presidential campaign of Donald Trump raised $25.3 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $0. (100% campaign funds 0% Super Pacs). The campaign has $1.6 million in cash on hand, spending 95 percentof what it has raised so far.

=======
Jeb Bush $157.5 mil
LEFT RACE FEBRUARY 20
The presidential campaign of Jeb Bush raised $33.4 million and allied super PACs and other independent groups raised $124.1 million. (21% campaign funds 79% Super Pacs). The campaign had $2.9 million in cash on hand, spending 92 percentof what it had raised.
 
Love him or hate him Trump is great value for anyone interested in watching politics. He has confused the pundits, he doesnt care what they think and he knows there are a lot of people pissed off with the "system" so he is playing to them. I have read about 20 newspaper editorials that have endorsed Kasich and Rubio and main argument they seem to write about is they aren't Trump and therefore best chance to beat Clinton. There is a combo dread and fear in their endorsement to anyone but Trump.

And he writes his own tweets so they are funny and/or nasty. If you want to know why Trump will get a third of the vote, go watch The Big Short. There are a lot of Americans still pissed of with the financial collapse and they know Trump wont take money from special interest groups. That might change if he wins the nomination and presidency. As I type this he is romping it in Nevada and the only candidate there as the polls close and the votes counted.

After he won the South Carolina and late last year got into a brawl with Fox's Meagyn Kelly so he posted this after winning South Carolina the other day.



He wont kowtow to big media players inc Rupert and his empire


Only one place to stay in Nevada
 
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Haha just watched Trump's Nevada victory speech. He was at a fellow casino owner's hotel, went on how much a great guy he is, although his hotel/casino isn't as good as Trump's, and said "for 3 months now ...he keeps offering me money, Phil said I want to put $10mil into your campaign. I said Phil I don't want your money, I don't want to do it, I'm self funding." He then said he offers him money every time he sees him and says - its hard for me to turn down money, because that's not what I have done my whole life, I grab and grab ( using his hands to draw figurative money pile in towards his chest. You know I get greedy I want money...... I'll tell you what we are going to do, we get greedy? Right? Now we are going to get greedy for the United States, we are going to grab and grab ( hand gestures grabbing) We're going to bring in so much money and so much everything, we are going to make America great again folks, I'm telling you, we're going to make America great again.

As I said above, someone telling the average angry voter over what has happened the last 9 -10 years - that he is turning money down from special interest groups, especially those who made big money before the financial collapse and even more after it, is a very attractive candidate to a decent chunk of the population who basically like his * YOU attitude to the media, political establishment, big money special interest groups etc.

In a country like Oz where voting is compulsory, then there is preferential voting which basically limits choice to Labor or Coalition and we never got hammered financially - I posted in another thread yesterday the survey that shows Oz is only behind Hong Kong for the most expensive housing affordability issues - losing 50-70% value of their homes value not being unusual, we dont really understand the seething anger and the attraction of a Trump and Sanders, talking at the extremes.
 
Megan Carpentier
A complete list of things for which Donald Trump proclaimed his (and his staff’s) love tonight:
  • Nevada
  • Nevada
  • Florida
  • The rifle stuff
  • The Second Amendment
  • The evangelicals
  • Liberty University
  • The poorly educated
  • The country
  • The country
  • This place
  • This state
  • Las Vegas
  • You folks

 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Haha just watched Trump's Nevada victory speech. He was at a fellow casino owner's hotel, went on how much a great guy he is, although his hotel/casino isn't as good as Trump's, and said "for 3 months now ...he keeps offering me money, Phil said I want to put $10mil into your campaign. I said Phil I don't want your money, I don't want to do it, I'm self funding." He then said he offers him money every time he sees him and says - its hard for me to turn down money, because that's not what I have done my whole life, I grab and grab ( using his hands to draw figurative money pile in towards his chest. You know I get greedy I want money...... I'll tell you what we are going to do, we get greedy? Right? Now we are going to get greedy for the United States, we are going to grab and grab ( hand gestures grabbing) We're going to bring in so much money and so much everything, we are going to make America great again folks, I'm telling you, we're going to make America great again.

As I said above, someone telling the average angry voter over what has happened the last 9 -10 years - that he is turning money down from special interest groups, especially those who made big money before the financial collapse and even more after it, is a very attractive candidate to a decent chunk of the population who basically like his **** YOU attitude to the media, political establishment, big money special interest groups etc.

In a country like Oz where voting is compulsory, then there is preferential voting which basically limits choice to Labor or Coalition and we never got hammered financially - I posted in another thread yesterday the survey that shows Oz is only behind Hong Kong for the most expensive housing affordability issues - losing 50-70% value of their homes value not being unusual, we dont really understand the seething anger and the attraction of a Trump and Sanders, talking at the extremes.
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History says a guy like Trump gets elected at a time like this. Centuries ago when things went bad people would overthrow monarchs and/or entire political systems. In modern western democracies, people vote in radicals to shake up the established way of doing things. That's how the Nazi party rose to power in Germany (not comparing the two, just saying). That's the crowd Trump is playing to. And good on him. If the other candidates want to beat him, they need to step up their game instead of dealing in empty rhetoric and same old same old policies and ideas.
 
Haha Mitt Romney reckons Trump should release his tax info which is standard stuff once a candidate becomes the nominee. So what does Trump do?

“Frankly, I think we have good reason to believe that there’s a bombshell in Donald Trump’s taxes,” Mr. Romney said in an interview with Fox News.










 
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Well looks like Trump is still on track for the nomination. And the field against him remains split. Cruz with some victories into second, but you'd think he'd struggle more once it gets out of mainly Southern states. Kasich with it looks a couple of second places, but realistically now all he's doing is stopping the anti-Trump vote having a real chance. Same with Carson (although his percentages are smaller).

Even if Cruz manages to get the nomination, given he's so religious he's going to be pushing s**t up hill to get the women's vote. Kasich would make a decent candidate / President by the looks of it, but he's not going to get there unless Cruz and Rubio are willing to get behind him. The only way I can see a non-trump Republican now is Cruz willing to get behind Rubio in return for being VP and Kasich doing the same for something like Secretary of State. Chances of that would be close to zero.
 
Andre said:
Well looks like Trump is still on track for the nomination. And the field against him remains split. Cruz with some victories into second, but you'd think he'd struggle more once it gets out of mainly Southern states. Kasich with it looks a couple of second places, but realistically now all he's doing is stopping the anti-Trump vote having a real chance. Same with Carson (although his percentages are smaller).

Even if Cruz manages to get the nomination, given he's so religious he's going to be pushing s**t up hill to get the women's vote. Kasich would make a decent candidate / President by the looks of it, but he's not going to get there unless Cruz and Rubio are willing to get behind him. The only way I can see a non-trump Republican now is Cruz willing to get behind Rubio in return for being VP and Kasich doing the same for something like Secretary of State. Chances of that would be close to zero.
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Its about accumulation of delegates. Trump needs to get 1,237 to be the nominee. He is racking up wins but as most states are proportional delegates he is only racking 30-35% with of the the 11 states today with Alaska only 1/3rd counted so far, he only got 40% or more in 2 states - the liberal Massachusetts 48% and Alabama 43%, the other 5 of the other states he won, he averaged around 34-35%, the 3 he got under 30% and is second in Alaska with 32% as I type as it hasn't finished counting.

Cruz is comfortably second and isn't leaving after winning his home state of Texas and Oklahoma today.

If Rubio does well in his home state of Florida ie wins - its a winner take all state and has 99 delegates, and Kasich wins his home state of Ohio and that like Florida is a winner take all state and has 66 delegates and as both states vote on the 15th March and Kasich probably has to finish a close 2nd in Michigan on the 8th which is a proportional delegates state, then I reckon both will stay in the race and I can see this going all the way to the Convention in Cleveland in July and Trump only getting between 1,100 and 1,150 delegates and an old fashion Brokered Convention happens and deals are done to get a nomination. See the Wiki link re how a brokered convention works. Its been a long time since the Republicans or Democrats have had one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

So if after the 15th March we still have 4 candidates at it, and even if Carson stays in and picks up a few delegates here and there, I can see the party establishment and the Super Pacs throwing lots of money at the non Trump candidates to stop him getting to 1,237 delegates. There are super delegates which are party officials and they can vote how they want, and they could also be used to stop Trump. The fear has to be that he gets 35+% of the vote all across the country, a brokered convention doesn't select him and he says * it, I'm going to run as a 3rd party candidate in November, then Clinton will be assured winning in November.

I will wait until the vote on the 15th, as between now and then you have 706 delegates to be allocated and you have the big states with winner take all of
Florida 99, Illinois 69, Ohio 66. Keep these 234 delegate away from Trump and who knows what he will end up with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
Mar 5 Kansas 3[g] 25 12 40 0 40 Caucus (closed) Proportional
Kentucky 3 25 18 46 3 43 Caucus (closed) Proportional
Louisiana 3 25 18 46 3 43 Primary (closed) Proportional
Maine 3 14 6 23 0 23 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-most
Mar 6 Puerto Rico 3 20 0 23 3 20 Primary (open) Winner-take-most
Mar 8 Hawaii 3 10 6 19 3 16 Caucus (closed) Proportional
Idaho 3 29 0 32 0 32 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-most
Michigan 3 14 42 59 0 59 Primary (open) Proportional
Mississippi 3 25 12 40 3 37 Primary (open) Proportional
Mar 12 Washington D.C. 3 16 0 19 0 19 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-most
Guam 3 6 0 9 9 0 Caucus (closed) (No allocation) N/A N/A N/A Mar 12 Convention N/A
Mar 15 Florida 0 18 81 99 0 99 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all
Illinois 3[g] 12 54 69 69 Primary (open) Winner-take-all
Missouri 3 25 24 52 0 52 Caucus (semi-closed) Winner-take-all
North. Mariana Is. 3 6 0 9 0 9 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-all
North Carolina 3 52 0 55 3 52 Primary (semi-closed) Proportional
Ohio 3 66 0 66 0 66 Primary (semi-closed) Winner-take-all

And then you still have the big states of California 172 winner take all on the last primary day of 7 June along with 3 small states total delegates 80 delegates and New jersey 51 and all are winner take all delegate states, New York 95 winner take most and in between them is Pennsylvania with 71 and winner take all.

The other interesting thing is that the delegates aren't in proportion to the population of each state to the USA total. Some smaller states who vote strongly for republicans get a lot more delegates than their population suggests over more populated states who heavily vote democrats. Eg Liberal Massachusetts 2010 Census population 6.55 million people get 42 delegates where as Alabama strong republican territory 2010 Census population 4.78 million people get 50 delegates. South Carolina which was a winner take all state and voted 11 days ago and staunchly republican had 50 delegates and 2010 Census population 4.63 million. North Carolina which will vote on the 15th as well is a republican state but not as heavy as South Carolina had 2010 Census population 9.54 million and only has 52 delegates. The parties are obviously allowed to weight things how they want, but the Electoral College for the Presidential Election in November is based on the previous Census population data which is done every 10 years and the last one was in 2010 so you don't get this situation in November.

So if you are watching Oz commentators or even US ones and they don't understand the delegate maths, then I'd be very skeptical of their predictions and opinions. This year is like no other presidential campaign in living memory, so expect the unexpected.

CNN election page is a good one to keep tabs of the delegates etc http://edition.cnn.com/election/
and according to the republican page the current delegate count is
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/republican
Trump 302 (he got majority delegates in 50/50 South Carolina and today Alabama 36/50, Georgia 40/76, Massachusetts 22/42, Tennessee 31/58)
Cruz.. 174
Rubio 104
Kasich 27
Carson 7
Bush 4 - wouldn't it be funny if Bush's 4 delegates made the difference, it'd be shades of 2000 presidential election with Florida and his brother.
 
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