Road to the 2016 American Presidential Election

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Tom Switzer of United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, on 7.30 talking about a Brokered Convention being a realistic possibility as "Trump is winning a plurality of votes and delegates but not a majority." :thumbsu::thumbsu:
 
Carson has officially withdrawn..

Updated Delegate estimate http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/candidates/donald-trump
Trump.. 332
Cruz .... 230
Rubio.... 113
Kasich.... 27
Carson.... 7
Bush....... 4
Fiorina.... 1
Huckabee 1
Paul........ 1
---------------
Total.... 716 of 2,472.
So Trump has 46% of the delegates and has picked up 34.25% of the vote so far. The winner take all states will become bloody important as opposed to the proportional states.

There have been 15 states votes so far. Trump has won 10 of them, Cruz 4 and Rubio 1. The states where a candidate has won a majority of delegates

Trump
South Carolina 50/50 + Alabama 36/50 + Georgia 42/76 + Massachusetts 22/42 = 150/218
Crux
Texas 102/155
 
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When Trump goes on the attack he doesnt mess around. Florida is next week - Marco Rubio's home state, its winner take all state, 99 delegates, and if Rubio loses then he surely is going to have to retire.






 

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The good ole boys of the GOP - Grand Old Party - aren't keen on Trump getting the nomination. Mark Halperin who is managing editor of Bloomberg Politics and host, of their show - With All Due Respect, and is also correspondent and executive producer of Showtime's The Circus talks to half a dozen party heavyweights. Watch this embedded video.

 
Rubio quits race after only getting about 27.0% of the votes in home state of Florida and Trump 45% and all 99 delegates.

So now down to 3 in the Republican side - Trump, Cruz and Kasich and Kasich becomes the Republican establishment's Plan C after Bush and Rubio have exited. Kasich won his home state of Ohio, and he likes to remind us - the way Ohio goes, so does the nation. He at this stage has 44% to Trump's 37% in Ohio. Trump is getting between 40% and 45% of the vote in the other 4 states - a plurality but not a majority. Kasich will stay in and probably stop both Trump and Cruz getting to 1,237 delegates before the convention in Cleveland, setting up one all mighty convention s**t fight.

Clinton gets decisive wins over Sanders in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Its tight in the other 2 states but is 5 points up in Illinois and Sanders 5 points up in Missouri. Hilary is crusing to the Democrat's nomination.
 
Pettie Bettie used to call himself a media tart. He has nothing on Trump. The media just cant help but talk about him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/u...mps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html?_r=0
Of all the ways Donald Trump has shocked the political system, one of the most significant is how he wins primary after primary with one of the smallest campaign budgets.

He still doesn’t have a super PAC. He skimped on ground organization and field offices. Most important, he spent less on television advertising — typically the single biggest expenditure for a campaign — than any other major candidate, according to an analysis by SMG Delta, a firm that tracks television advertising.
.....
Mr. Trump earned $400 million worth of free media last month, about what John McCain spent on his entire 2008 presidential campaign. Paul Senatori, mediaQuant’s chief analytics officer, says that Mr. Trump “has no weakness in any of the media segments” — in other words, he is strong in every type of earned media, from television to Twitter.

Over the course of the campaign, he has earned close to $2 billion worth of media attention, about twice the all-in price of the most expensive presidential campaigns in history. It is also twice the estimated $746 million that Hillary Clinton, the next best at earning media, took in. Senator Bernie Sanders has earned more media than any of the Republicans except Mr. Trump.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/u...mps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html?_r=0

upload_2016-3-17_10-44-57.png
 
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Well I have made a small entry into the US election process. On the 7th March I wrote to the Kasich campaign team and said you are getting a lot of endorsements from newspapers and current and previous politicians, be they governors, senator, congressmen and state representatives as well as general celebrities. I asked if there was any chance they could put an endorsement drop box so I could compare them to the other campaigns. I said something like the number itself becomes a marketing item if you have totals say for newspapers and governors etc. Well last weekend I checked his home page and saw the following under the news dropbox - see image below. Now I have to think about giving them some more advice. :p

I have come to the conclusion that Kasich is going to win enough delegates to stop both Trump and Cruz getting to 1,237 and it is all going to a brokered convention in Cleveland and he is going to get the nomination and then win the Presidency. It is a crazy situation this election campaign and Trump and Cruz the last few days going on about sexual innuendos of each others wifes have lowered the standard so low that Kasich becomes the only choice for the rational and sane voter and party officials. Kasich keeps saying I wont take the lowest path to get to the highest office in the land. The tortoise approach is starting to make traction. When I said he had a lot of Bill Clinton about him I refrained from saying he has a bit of the comeback kid about him like Clinton was called. If he wins he becomes the Comeback Kid - King!

upload_2016-3-26_16-17-25.png



 
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Ford Fairlane said:
Surely this madness has to end. I've been re-reading Stephen King's The Stand and Trump sounds more and more like Randall Flagg.



http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/30/donald-trump-women-abortions-punishment
Click to expand...

For Trump to stoop to the low of making public comments about Cruz's wife and her lack of physical appeal is unbelievable o_O.
Anyone who is standing for the number one office in still arguably the most powerful country in the world ( although China is rapidly bridging the gap ), or any country for that matter, should never be involved in stupid schoolyard crap like that.

Surprisingly though as bizarre as Trump is, Cruz is seen by some americans as even more bizarre, eg his father, who is some sort of religious leader wants to enclose all moslems in some type of controlled areas so they can be monitored for any dissident activities, and that is just one of his out there wtf ideas.

Basically all Hillary Clinton has to do now is keep playing a straight bat, let the two clowns continually embarass themselves, and she will win the american presidency in a canter.
 
These latest comments from Trumnp and the outrage that follows will yet again only serve to increase his lead in the polls. The problem for the establishment and the 'politically correct class' is that the more they condemn Trump, the more it mobilises the millions and millions of Americans that agree with him and sends them to the ballot boxes to make sure they are being heard.
 
Bernie - in your best Brooklyn accent - had a YUGE (or is it YOOJ) Saturday at the primaries. He won in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington state with between 70% and 80% of the vote in each of the 3 states. He is only trailing Hillary in elected delegates 1,020 to 1,259 but she has a big lead in Super delegates ie party officials 483 to 31.

So its 1,742 v 1,051 for Hillary on the race to 2,383 majority delegates. There are about 20 states to go including California and their 475 delegates and in mid April NY 247 and Pennsylvania 189 are the biggest 3 left. Cant see Bernie winning as none of these are winner take all primaries but he is going to cause some heartburn for Hillary.
 

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Donald Trump - they cannot be serious.

Trump's campaign manager has been arrested for assault, he has had to backdown on his threats to punish women who have abortions. Is nothing beyond this man?

I think it will be Hillary v Trump and all Hillary will have to do is keep her mouth shut, Trump will do the rest for her.
 
raptalia said:
Donald Trump - they cannot be serious.

Trump's campaign manager has been arrested for assault, Trump's campaign office has had to backdown on his threats to 'punish' women who have abortions. Is nothing beyond this man? There is something almost sharian in a belief that women should be punished.

I think it will be Hillary v Trump and all Hillary will have to do is keep her mouth shut, Trump will do the rest for her.
Click to expand...
 
This post I put in the Hamish Hartlett Hat thread really belongs here

Far Kern said:
Sorry to talk about politics everyone but the Republican Convention could be, well, anything: funny, farcical, nasty, dangerous, anything.
Click to expand...
Trump keeps getting pluralities but not majorities. He wont get the delegates to win before the convention so then all bets are off in Cleveland. The Republican Party establishment wont be ignoring the following, if they want to win in November. This is the year that mad crazy unexpected things are happening so why not continue.





The following article talks about Kasich staying in to get the Vice Presidency nomination from Trump, but Kasich has said he wont accept it. I am of the belief that Kasich will put Rubio on his ticket and collect his delegates and put real pressure on the Republican establishment to back in that ticket at the convention. With Rubio they could pick up the Hispanics in November, that Trump has pissed off so far.

And this is another reason why Kasich wont pull out as per the above mentioned article

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/19/11450706/why-is-kasich-still-running-for-president
There's a counterargument, though, that Kasich can actually hurt Trump by depriving him of some delegates in a region where Cruz is weak — the Northeast. Even though Kasich appears unlikely to win any more Northeastern states, he could win certain congressional districts. His presence could also make a difference in contests that have "winner-take-all triggers" — awarding all delegates in a state or district only to a candidate who tops 50 percent of the vote — by holding Trump under that 50 percent threshold.
Click to expand...
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/19/11450706/why-is-kasich-still-running-for-president

What happened today in the 12th Congressional district of New York ie the part of Manhattan where Trump lives?? Kasich beats Trump.

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20...ow-ues-murray-hill-e-village-voted-ny-primary
Campaigning is over, and residents of the 12th Congressional District have chosen Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. But John Kasich was leading Donald Trump by 70 votes with 100 percent of precincts reporting. The vote tally is unofficial. Trump's home in Trump Tower falls within the 12th Congressional District.

 
RussellEbertHandball said:
This post I put in the Hamish Hartlett Hat thread really belongs here


Trump keeps getting pluralities but not majorities. He wont get the delegates to win before the convention so then all bets are off in Cleveland. The Republican Party establishment wont be ignoring the following, if they want to win in November. This is the year that mad crazy unexpected things are happening so why not continue.





The following article talks about Kasich staying in to get the Vice Presidency nomination from Trump, but Kasich has said he wont accept it. I am of the belief that Kasich will put Rubio on his ticket and collect his delegates and put real pressure on the Republican establishment to back in that ticket at the convention. With Rubio they could pick up the Hispanics in November, that Trump has pissed off so far.

And this is another reason why Kasich wont pull out as per the above mentioned article

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/19/11450706/why-is-kasich-still-running-for-president

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/19/11450706/why-is-kasich-still-running-for-president

What happened today in the 12th Congressional district of New York ie the part of Manhattan where Trump lives?? Kasich beats Trump.

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20...ow-ues-murray-hill-e-village-voted-ny-primary
Campaigning is over, and residents of the 12th Congressional District have chosen Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. But John Kasich was leading Donald Trump by 70 votes with 100 percent of precincts reporting. The vote tally is unofficial. Trump's home in Trump Tower falls within the 12th Congressional District.

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Interesting, thanks for the Vox link. I knew Kasich was doing much better in the polling than in delegates but hadn't considered what he might be up to in detail. It's all about not letting Trump get a majority before the convention. I think it was a Guardian article that I read about the rules and possible machinations of this. There's no guarantee that all of his delegates have to even support him, one analysis I read his absence of a grassroots campaign potentially really hurting him with this, as they race to screen delegates they can't know they can trust.

I didn't know about this thread, I'd be interested to follow up on anything you find and might post links to anything good I find.
 
Cruz and Kasich teaming up to stop Trump winning and both of them having a crack at winning at the convention. Kasich has pulled out of the Indiana primary which is a winner take all the delegates primary.

Kasich has a tweet that says republicans have had 10 brokered conventions and 7 times the one with the most delegates hasnt been the nominee.
 
This is the map from the WSJ of the last 15 primaries before the latest 5 primaries held Tuesday US time. But looks like Trump might not need a big victory in California after the 5 results today, unless Cruz and Kasich do something special in the last 10 primaries.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/map-shrinks-for-donald-trumps-foes-1461626904


P1-BX218A_LIOND_11U_20160425192417.jpg
 
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Today's 5 primaries

Connecticut 28 delegates, winner most - Trump 58%, Kasich 28%, Cruz 12% - Trump gets all 28 delegates
Delaware 16 delegates, winner take all - Trump 61%, Kasich 20%, Cruz 16% - Trump gets all 16 delegates
Maryland 38 delegates, winner take most - Trump 55%, Kasich 23%, Cruz 19% - Trump has 35 of 38 delegates none to others at this stage
Pennsylvania 71 delegates 17 pledged and 54 unpledged - Trump 57%, Cruz, 22%, Kasich 19% - Trump has taken all 17 pledged delegates
Rhode Island 19 delegates proportional - Trump 64%, Kasich 24%, Cruz 10%. Trump 9 delegates, Kasich 5 and Cruz 1.

So far out of these primaries
Trump.............. 105
Kasich................ 5
Cruz................... 1
not alocated yet... 3
unpledged.......... 54

CNN totals slightly different to WSJ + above and they say Trump 951, Cruz, 564, Kasich 152.

So Trump has to get approx 286 of the 502 left.
 
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Hillary won 4 of the 5 primaries

Connecticut 71 delegates, proportional 55 + 16 super delegates - Clinton 51.5% Sanders 46.8% - Clinton 27 delegates, Sanders 25
Delaware 31 delegates, proportional 21 + 10 super delegates - Clinton 59.8% Sanders 39.2% - Clinton 12 delegates, Sanders 9
Maryland 118 delegates, proportional 95 + 23 super delegates - Clinton 63.0% Sanders 33.3% - Clinton 57 delegates, Sanders 27
Pennsylvania 210 delegates, proportional 189 + 21 super delegates - Clinton 55.6% Sanders 43.6% - Clinton 95 delegates, Sanders 59
Rhode Island 33 delegates, proportional 24 + 9 super delegates - Clinton 43.3% Sanders 55.0% - Clinton 11 delegates, Sanders 13

According to CNN Hillary has 1,654 delegates + 502 super delegates = 2,156 on her way to 2,383 and Bernie has 1,332 + 42 = 1,374.
 
Trump has the nomination in the bag now, El Rato and Golly Gee have been BTFO. Serves them right for colluding.

Trump will get to 1237 easily.
 
hazard said:
Trump has the nomination in the bag now, El Rato and Golly Gee have been BTFO. Serves them right for colluding.

Trump will get to 1237 easily.
Click to expand...
Depends on Indiana and those rocky mountain/mid west winner take all states. If Cruz wins them, then it will be down to California and the winner take all results in each congressional district for Trump to get over the line. Anyway the Cruz-Kasich pact isnt for the voters, its for the Republican Party unpledged delegates and a signal to them to not to commit to Trump.
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Depends on Indiana and those rocky mountain/mid west winner take all states. If Cruz wins them, then it will be down to California and the winner take all results in each congressional district for Trump to get over the line. Anyway the Cruz-Kasich pact isnt for the voters, its for the Republican Party unpledged delegates and a signal to them to not to commit to Trump.
Click to expand...

Trump is about 8 points ahead in the Indiana polls, and has a heap of momentum behind him. Will probably win Indiana by 15+.
 
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