Roby's betting tips and other stuff

[Roby]

I only realised there was such a board so I am going to be posting betting tips here.

Round 15
GWS v Saints 330 1.9 8.5 Saints Away TAB
Dogs v Suns 230 1.92 -5.5 Dogs Home Luxbet
Dons v Dees 180 1.62 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Port v Pies 70 1.96 WIN Port Home Betstar

 

[Spads]

How about you put your bets in units like an adult.

 

[anabac]

How about if you dont like it shut up. ?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Good to have you on the BT, Roby.

I can see you giving Lenny a run for his money in terms of greatest BT ever.

 

[Roby]

Round 15

Hawks line moving back out, Betstar the best. Hawks weather permitting can cover it. Real test for Freo after a month of poor opponents not including Richmond who they lost by five goals at home.

Hawks v Freo 210 1.91 -14.5 Hawks Home Betstar

How about you put your bets in units like an adult.

If you can divide by 100 you will be fine.

Example:

Round 15
GWS v Saints 330/100=3.3 U 1.9 8.5 Saints Away TAB
Dogs v Suns 230/100= 2.3 U 1.92 -5.5 Dogs Home Luxbet
Hawks v Freo 210/100 = 2.1 U 1.91 -14.5 Hawks Home Betstar
Dons v Dees 180/100=1.8 U 1.62 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Port v Pies 70/100= .7 U 1.96 WIN Port Home Betstar

If anyone is interested below are my tips.

Round 15 tips

Port Adelaide
Richmond
Melbourne
Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne
West Coast
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Sydney

2015 tip tally: 81/116

 

[Roby]

Tigers v Blues 200 1.91 -19.5 Tigers Home Betstar

 

[Roby]

Port v Pies 70 1.85 WIN Port Home Betstar

 

[Roby]

Dons v Dees 70 1.6 WIN Dees Away Betstar

 

[Roby]

Eagles v Crows 180 1.22 WIN Eagles Home Betstar

 

[Roby]

Round 15 summary

GWS v Saints 330 1.9 8.5 Saints Away TAB
Dogs v Suns 230 1.92 -5.5 Dogs Home Luxbet
Hawks v Freo 210 1.91 -14.5 Hawks Home Betstar
Tigers v Blues 200 1.91 -19.5 Tigers Home Betstar
Dons v Dees 180 1.62 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Dons v Dees 70 1.6 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Port v Pies 70 1.96 WIN Port Home Betstar
Port v Pies 70 1.85 WIN Port Home Betstar
Eagles v Crows 180 1.22 WIN Eagles Home Betstar

 

[freo_leo29]

Any reason for tipping Essendon but betting on the Dees?

 

[iluvparis]

Any reason for tipping Essendon but betting on the Dees?

Price

 

[nooblet]

but if he's tipping essendon surely that would suggest he thinks they're >50%?

 

[freo_leo29]

but if he's tipping essendon surely that would suggest he thinks they're >50%?

This is what i would have thought, meaning Bombers would be value at ~2.30~?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Mistype, has to have been. If he's bet on Melbourne as a fav he's tipped Melbourne for sure.

 

[Roby]

Any reason for tipping Essendon but betting on the Dees?

Mistake, Melbourne should win this easy, Essendon still too many outs. The Bombers easily the most injured team in the competition right now. I'm predicting they'll finish second last on the ladder. Might be worth putting something on them for the wooden spoon.


Tonight, very lucky, the umpires really helped Port but we'll take it!

 

[Lensen]

you're far too sloppy, any edge anyone has is fine enough without the volume of errors you make

 

[Roby]

Essendon looks like they're tanking for the rest of the year.

Dons v Dees 170 1.55 WIN Dees Away Betstar

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

More 'sloppy' winners for Roby, genius.

 

[KardiniaPark]

you're far too sloppy, any edge anyone has is fine enough without the volume of errors you make

'Input error'

 

[Roby]

More 'sloppy' winners for Roby, genius.

Yes they can laugh at input errors all day long but last week was perfect in tipping and would've got probably nine if it wasn't for the sudden tragedy. Would be currently ranked third and only one behind second in the age tipsters. Which interestingly have their own error. http://www.theage.com.au/afl/expert-tipsters. They've listed GWS 7 St Kilda 17 when most people tipped GWS. You'd think by just reversing it you would get the right numbers but it's actually GWS 16 St Kilda 8. Two errors in one go!

But you'd think that would be the last error, most of them tipped GWS! Every single mathematical model tipped GWS and no wonder why they lag in tipping.

Squiggle, Footymathsblog -5
Footyforecaster -6

Believe it or not I have picked the exact margins in the first two games of the round. Although I think that roll is about to end with your boys against Essendon picking a margin of 66 points and the Dees haven't won a game by over 40 points this year. Then again they did beat the Dogs by 39 points, the Dogs hadn't lost by bigger margin then when they lost to Hawthorn earlier in the year but were actually missing their whole midfield and half their side. And Essendon last week did lose by the highest margin of any team this year. So are we not believing what happened last week? Hence:

GWS v Saints 330 1.9 8.5 Saints Away TAB
Dogs v Suns 230 1.92 -5.5 Dogs Home Luxbet
Hawks v Freo 210 1.91 -14.5 Hawks Home Betstar
Tigers v Blues 200 1.91 -19.5 Tigers Home Betstar
Dons v Dees 180 1.62 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Dons v Dees 170 1.55 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Dons v Dees 70 1.6 WIN Dees Away Betstar
Port v Pies 70 1.96 WIN Port Home Betstar
Port v Pies 70 1.85 WIN Port Home Betstar
Eagles v Crows 180 1.22 WIN Eagles Home Betstar

 

[Roby]

St Kilda could make finals

Betfair St Kilda top 8
8 @ $40
6 @ $26
20 @ $20

Sorry guys I took it all. Wait till the end of the round you should get some good odds still.

 

[Roby]

I'd take anything over $5-6 for saints if they beat GWS today.

 

[Lensen]

Who was laughing, it was an attempt at a constructive criticism

 

[Roby]

Who was laughing, it was an attempt at a constructive criticism

How is that constructive if you're using the word "sloppy" to pretty much sum everything up. And not just sloppy you said:

too sloppy

. How is that constructive, what are we supposed to do with that comment?

A11dAtP0w3R your Dees, will they learn to play four quarters?

Anyway who would've thought the shot in the arm that Essendon actually needed was just an injection of youth. Bombers were paying $3.5 and only 5 points down.