Roger Federer is not the GOAT

Lethality

I AM THE Geelong Cats
Joined
Oct 23, 2014
Posts
29,513
Likes
34,418
Location
Top of the AFLM ladder
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory, NY Rangers
Rafas record is seriously inflated by the French Open, and his USOpen win last in 2017 in which he didn't meet a single top20 player.

If anyone's challenging Roger, with all that considered, it's Djokovic.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Roobs321

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Apr 28, 2008
Posts
6,952
Likes
4,228
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Arsenal Sydney Swans GWS CBR United
Rafas record is seriously inflated by the French Open, and his USOpen win last in 2017 in which he didn't meet a single top20 player.

If anyone's challenging Roger, with all that considered, it's Djokovic.
To be fair though, his form in the 2017 USO was very good. I watched his last few matches and that is the best I've seen from his recent slams (and slam finals). In 2017 AO he was a veteran battler for the most part, fighting his way deep into the tournament, almost winning it and winning a lot of hearts along the way. By 2017 USO he was #1 and looked every bit of it.

The biggest slight against Rafa really is that the periods when he is the best player are brief, it doesn't sustain. Mid 2008-Mid 2009; most of 2010 until early 2011 when Godovic was unmistakable; a couple months in 2013 when Novak became his mental vassal, and arguably for a period in 2017-18 (although Federer's reduced tournament load and the h2h in that period gives that an asterisk). Other than that, he hasn't been the best, or has been injured. He never had that 2-3 year period when he won virtually everything. His 2008 FO through 2012 FO was generally a strong period for him when fit.
 
Last edited:

bato

The Quarterly ⭐️ UBL_fp
Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Posts
6,979
Likes
6,972
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Denver Nuggets, Novak Djokovic
Federer fans can rest easy knowing whatever happens, their man is easily the most talented player of all time.
How did you come to that conclusion? He's probably the smoothest operator but I wouldn't be confidently saying he's 'more talented' than Nadal or Djokovic.
 

Lethality

I AM THE Geelong Cats
Joined
Oct 23, 2014
Posts
29,513
Likes
34,418
Location
Top of the AFLM ladder
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory, NY Rangers
How did you come to that conclusion? He's probably the smoothest operator but I wouldn't be confidently saying he's 'more talented' than Nadal or Djokovic.
Being a smooth operator, the ability to make the difficult look mundane, is a manifestation of talent. Aside from that he pretty much has it all, could play just as well if not better in any other era. If we went back to wooden racquets it would affect him the least.
 

Maester

Team Captain
Joined
Oct 15, 2014
Posts
372
Likes
235
AFL Club
Sydney
Recency bias is a significant factor here, Djokovic has been on fire since Wimbledon and it seems like that will continue indefinitely. But Djokovic winning another 5+ slams after his 32nd birthday is not likely historically speaking. History suggests something is likely to get in his way, whether injury, loss of form or a new dominant player or 2 taking over. And any of these things could happen very quickly.

But there's been no great players in the generation that came after Nadal and Djokovic, and the jury's also out on the guys currently 19-22. If one or two of them is going to turn out to be a true great of the game you'd expect them to win a slam pretty soon. So who knows. Right now I think it's reasonably likely that Djokovic will break Federer's weeks at number 1 record, and I'd give him something like a 30-40% chance of breaking the slam record. If he breaks both he'll be a pretty definitive GOAT. If he breaks 1 (by a little bit) but not the other (by a little bit) I think it'll be debatable.
 

Lethality

I AM THE Geelong Cats
Joined
Oct 23, 2014
Posts
29,513
Likes
34,418
Location
Top of the AFLM ladder
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory, NY Rangers
Recency bias is a significant factor here, Djokovic has been on fire since Wimbledon and it seems like that will continue indefinitely. But Djokovic winning another 5+ slams after his 32nd birthday is not likely historically speaking. History suggests something is likely to get in his way, whether injury, loss of form or a new dominant player or 2 taking over. And any of these things could happen very quickly.

But there's been no great players in the generation that came after Nadal and Djokovic, and the jury's also out on the guys currently 19-22. If one or two of them is going to turn out to be a true great of the game you'd expect them to win a slam pretty soon. So who knows. Right now I think it's reasonably likely that Djokovic will break Federer's weeks at number 1 record, and I'd give him something like a 30-40% chance of breaking the slam record. If he breaks both he'll be a pretty definitive GOAT. If he breaks 1 (by a little bit) but not the other (by a little bit) I think it'll be debatable.
He would need another 80 weeks at No.1, having 232 so far. Statistically it seems unlikely.
 

bato

The Quarterly ⭐️ UBL_fp
Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Posts
6,979
Likes
6,972
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Denver Nuggets, Novak Djokovic
Being a smooth operator, the ability to make the difficult look mundane, is a manifestation of talent. Aside from that he pretty much has it all, could play just as well if not better in any other era. If we went back to wooden racquets it would affect him the least.
I don’t entirely disagree, I just think when it comes to talent all 3 guys are all pretty much the same. I would argue that Novak’s ability to dethrone both Roger and Rafa takes a hell of a lot ‘talent’ too. I would argue that Rafa’s ability to put so much top spin on each ball is just a different level of talent all together. Could argue a lot for all 3 tbh.
 

bato

The Quarterly ⭐️ UBL_fp
Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Posts
6,979
Likes
6,972
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Denver Nuggets, Novak Djokovic
He would need another 80 weeks at No.1, having 232 so far. Statistically it seems unlikely.
He’s staying number one until Wimbledon next year. That’s when he’s expected to overtake Roger at weeks at number one. The guy has basically nothing to defend until the second half of the year. He’ll lead the pack by a good 6000 points by season’s end.
 

Socrates2

Premiership Player
Joined
Aug 11, 2015
Posts
3,821
Likes
4,494
AFL Club
Richmond
Forget Rafa, it's the Joker we all want.Djokervich can break the Slam record and pass Federer.People are already making a get out clause, saying Federer is the best regardless.The Djoker's athleticism is incredible. For mine,I've always ranked Bjorn Borg in the top few. He retired at only 26yo with 11 grand slams.He played the Australian open only once as a 18yo.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Thrawn

Hall of Famer
Joined
Jul 21, 2001
Posts
31,867
Likes
22,687
Location
Melbourne, Australia.
AFL Club
Carlton
Djokovic won't.

He can't be sliding left to right like that throughout his mid-30s, the younger players who have already beaten him in the past couple of years will start to enter an age where they'll begin hitting a physical and mental peak.
 

Thrawn

Hall of Famer
Joined
Jul 21, 2001
Posts
31,867
Likes
22,687
Location
Melbourne, Australia.
AFL Club
Carlton
He’s staying number one until Wimbledon next year. That’s when he’s expected to overtake Roger at weeks at number one. The guy has basically nothing to defend until the second half of the year. He’ll lead the pack by a good 6000 points by season’s end.
That depends entirely on him going deep at Wimbledon, US and Aus Opens. One or two upsets and he's suddenly back in the pack again. At that age nothing's a given.
 

bato

The Quarterly ⭐️ UBL_fp
Joined
Oct 7, 2011
Posts
6,979
Likes
6,972
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Denver Nuggets, Novak Djokovic
That depends entirely on him going deep at Wimbledon, US and Aus Opens. One or two upsets and he's suddenly back in the pack again. At that age nothing's a given.
He'll make enough points at the tournaments previous to that, then has some to make at the two big finals he lost at the end of the year.
 
Top Bottom