Rolling All Australian Team 2020

[eth-dog]

Darcy Byrne-Jones was in the AA squad last year too.

Really? Huh, that shows me up then.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Naitanui set up a goal to Kennedy and a set shot (behind) to Ryan in the last quarter with one hit out and one kick. So in fantasy footy land he got 4 points and WC got 16 (one mark, two kicks, one goal, one behind). In reality the goal put us ahead and the behind if converted would've put us 9 up.

But he took 0 marks so obviously should pick Gawn who took 5 of them.

How about the play out of the middle in the last 30 seconds of the 3rd term leading to Ah Chee's goal? That was clutch.

 

[Scotland]

How about the play out of the middle in the last 30 seconds of the 3rd term leading to Ah Chee's goal? That was clutch.

Did he get a stat for it?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Did he get a stat for it?

Hit-out, I assume.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Did he get a stat for it?

meh - it’s only a hit out

delist

 

[Scotland]

Have any of you poindexters ever plotted Dream Team/Fantasy points against Champion Data/SuperCoach points?

Naitanui with a solid 70 vs 146 tonight. Apparently he is averaging 64 vs 95 for the season. Surely he is up there for career differentials.

 

[PhatBoy]

Hawkins stats are impressive. Really high in the score goal assists.

people genuinely don’t realise how good he is. Gave a goal to a teammate on a platter tonight with a sublime pass across his body

 

[Fadge]

HF: Greene Dixon Wingard
F: Butler Kennedy Papley

Maybe?

Wingard out, C. Cameron in

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Midway through the last quarter...

Nick Naitanui, just 7 disposals and one of the best rucking displays I've ever seen. Unbelievable...

BOG

It's the Rioli effect.

And what carries through, is if you don't watch them play, you simply cannot understand or do not believe their impact.

Both masters of the knock on and stoppage pressure fwd of centre too. That ability to manufacture chaos in congestion, get the ball to offensive positions and just make opposition players brains melt is invaluable.

 

[HairyO]

Not sure about the Sicily or Haynes debate. There are 2 HBF spots.

Why not both?

Wingard would be on the cusp with Gunston but Im not sure they are in yet. Kennedy and Papley are the 2 locks. Hawkins probably has CHF.

Greene and Cameron possibly there.

Im not sure Ive seen a WCE game this year so Ruck is tough to pick as I cant personally rate NicNat.

The other mid spots are open to about 20 players. Way too early to pick I think.

 

[Slysh]

I wonder how many people had JK, Dixon, Wingard and Butler in their pre season AA teams.

Anyone who did as a bloody wizard

 

[Guardian Hawk]

HF: Greene Dixon Wingard
F: Butler Kennedy Papley

Maybe?

Not sure Wingard still deserves to be in. After the first month when he had 3 standout performances absolutely. His form and influence has dropped off with the teams. A couple of decent games and 3 quiet ones since not quite AA worthy.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

It's the Rioli effect.

And what carries through, is if you don't watch them play, you simply cannot understand or do not believe their impact.

Both masters of the knock on and stoppage pressure fwd of centre too. That ability to manufacture chaos in congestion, get the ball to offensive positions and just make opposition players brains melt is invaluable.

Yep.

In modern, highly congested football there are a handful of players who can dominate in close, destroy opposition midfield sequences and create clean possessions out of congestion.

Naitanui's impact on the Geelong game was incredible, I think he was the best on ground- every time West Coast surged it was on the back of him setting up decisive ball out of the centre.

The key stats for him, to the extent that any stats measure what he does, are hitouts to advantage, clearances and pressure acts. But even that doesn't tell the full story, because when he taps the ball clear of a contest onto the chest of a midfielder running at full pace in the direction of goal, that's still as a 'hit out to advantage' the same as knocking the ball to ground in a good position for one of your mids to pick it up.

 

[eth-dog]

that's still as a 'hit out to advantage' the same as knocking the ball to ground in a good position for one of your mids to pick it up.

That's incorrect. Any hit out that doesn't result in a clean break without the ball touching the ground isn't a hitout to advantage.

 

[Yojimbo]

people genuinely don’t realise how good he is. Gave a goal to a teammate on a platter tonight with a sublime pass across his body

Technically Tom Hawkins should have been watching the game with Joel Selwood last night how he got off a blatant elbow to his
opponent the previous week is a bigger mystery than the Bermuda Triangle. Obvious that Tom Hawkins took a lot of learning
out of costing his team a chance at a flag last year.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

That's incorrect. Any hit out that doesn't result in a clean break without the ball touching the ground isn't a hitout to advantage.

The champion data definition is just any hitout that reaches an intended teammate?
https://www.afl.com.au/news/144837/...O ADVANTAGE,that reaches an intended teammate.

 

[eth-dog]

The champion data definition is just any hitout that reaches an intended teammate?
https://www.afl.com.au/news/144837/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained#:~:text=an opponent's possession.-,HIT-OUT TO ADVANTAGE,that reaches an intended teammate.

Really? Huh. Then how come teams record 40 clearances with a dominant ruckman and often only have 10 hitouts to advantage? How do they know who the intended teammate is?

 

[If it Aint Boak]

Okay, now here's a debate that isn't the ruckmen. Key forwards. Three candidates, two spots. Using goals and goal assists totals as well as marks, inside 50's, score involvements, marks inside 50 and contested marks by averages as the guide.

Hawkins: 16 goals, 13 goal assists, 4.8 marks, 1.7 inside 50's, 6.3 score involvements, 2.3 marks inside 50, 1.3 contested marks
Kennedy: 22 goals, 1 GA, 4.1 marks, 0.7 I50's, 4.9 SI, 2.9 MI50, 1.4 CM
Dixon: 17 goals, 4 GA, 4.5 marks, 1.5 I50's, 5.6 SI, 2.6 MI50, 3.4 CM

I'm leaning Hawkins/Kennedy but Dixon is very close

Contested marks are super important because of the way it forces the oppo defence to triple team you.

Look how many goals Port scores vs Melbourne because they were too Dixon focused, freeing up Georgiadis etc.

I’d still take Dixon in the AA team but let’s see how the second half of the season shakes out.

 

[If it Aint Boak]

I disagree with the bolded bit.

Nick Naitanui is streets ahead when it comes to dominating hitouts, putting the ball on a silver plate for his midfielders and following up with 2nd and 3rd efforts to help win the clearance. It's no coincidence the Eagles are clearly the no.1 team for Clearances won & lost

Avg Clearance Differential (for/against)

1. WCE +6.0
2. N.M. +4.8
3. Geel +4.4
4. Carl +2.6
5. Melb +2.4
6. Port +2.2
7. G.C. +2.1
8. Bris +1.8
9. St K +1.5
10. Coll +0.5
The other teams are <0.00

^^ That's with Oscar Allen providing relief for Nicnat on 25% of the ruck contests and losing almost every hitout
The +6.0 differential for WCE would be even higher if we just focused on Naitanui's time in the ruck.


Hitouts (Top 20)

275 Brodie Grundy
273 Todd Goldstein
256 Max Gawn
236 Jarrod Witts
232 Nic Naitanui
191 Reilly O'Brien
181 Marc Pittonet
161 Ivan Soldo
145 Scott Lycett
142 Rowan Marshall
136 Tim English
135 Jonathon Ceglar
123 Oscar McInerney
123 Sean Darcy
108 Sam Jacobs
108 Paddy Ryder
107 Darcy Fort
104 Callum Sinclair
100 Tom Bellchambers
_93 Stefan Martin

Goldstein and Grundy are no.1 and no.2 for hitouts, but if you delve a little deeper into the stats, a different picture emerges.



Hitouts Win %

62.9% Nic Naitanui
58.7% Paddy Ryder
56.6% Max Gawn
54.0% Brodie Grundy
52.6% Sean Darcy
52.4% Ivan Soldo
48.7% Jonathon Ceglar
47.3% Jarrod Witts
47.0% Todd Goldstein
46.4% Sam Jacobs
46.1% Tom Bellchambers
45.7% Scott Lycett
45.1% Stefan Martin
43.9% Marc Pittonet
43.6% Rowan Marshall
43.2% Ben McEvoy
41.5% Darcy Fort
40.1% Reilly O'Brien
39.8% Callum Sinclair
37.6% Oscar McInerney



Hits to Advantage %

25.0% Paddy Ryder (from only 5 games and 184 ruck contests. Need a bigger sample)
18.6% Max Gawn
16.5% Nic Naitanui
15.1% Scott Lycett
15.0% Sam Jacobs
14.5% Brodie Grundy
13.7% Ben McEvoy
13.6% Darcy Fort
13.3% Marc Pittonet
13.2% Sean Darcy
13.0% Ivan Soldo
12.9% Tom Bellchambers
12.9% Rowan Marshall
12.8% Jarrod Witts
12.4% Todd Goldstein
11.8% Reilly O'Brien
11.1% Callum Sinclair
10.8% Jonathon Ceglar
10.4% Oscar McInerney



Clearance % (individual clearances divided by tot. ruck contests)

11.9% Nic Naitanui
9.0% Todd Goldstein
8.3% Jonathon Ceglar
7.9% Scott Lycett
7.4% Darcy Fort
6.7% Rowan Marshall
6.6% Peter Ladhams
6.3% Andrew Phillips
6.3% Marc Pittonet
6.3% Stefan Martin
6.3% Brodie Grundy
6.0% Max Gawn
5.6% Sam Jacobs
5.5% Ivan Soldo
5.4% Jarrod Witts
5.3% Esava Ratugolea
5.2% Oscar McInerney
5.0% Oscar Allen
4.7% Sean Darcy



Clearances + Hits to Advantage %

29.3% Paddy Ryder
28.5% Nic Naitanui
24.6% Max Gawn
23.0% Scott Lycett
21.3% Todd Goldstein
20.9% Darcy Fort
20.8% Brodie Grundy
20.6% Sam Jacobs
19.7% Marc Pittonet
19.6% Rowan Marshall
19.1% Jonathon Ceglar
18.6% Ivan Soldo
18.2% Jarrod Witts
17.9% Sean Darcy
17.8% Ben McEvoy
17.5% Tom Bellchambers
15.6% Oscar McInerney
15.0% Stefan Martin
14.9% Callum Sinclair
14.5% Reilly O'Brien


I essentially agree with your main point. To be the AA ruckman, Naitanui needs to do more work in general play, take a few more marks and maybe kick a few goals. But he is better than Gawn, Goldy and Grundy when it comes to dominating ruck contests (in the air and on the ground). Maybe also a few points off for sitting on the bench & getting his breath back while Gawn, Goldy and Grundy are rucking solo for 4 quarters.

It all gets back to fitness & endurance. The others have that over Naitanui. But he is a powerful beast when he's up & going.

I don’t think you should adjust all of the stats for number of ruck contests attended. NN can’t play close to 100% TOG like Goldstein etc. that’s part of what should be factored into AA calculations.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Nah, it's not about goals. Ask Kreuuuzeurns.

0,0,1,4,0,1 before the last 3 weeks.

He deserves to be in the side now. You went early.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

0,0,1,4,0,1 before the last 3 weeks.

He deserves to be in the side now. You went early.

How the worm turns.

I thought it wasn't about goals?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Yep.

In modern, highly congested football there are a handful of players who can dominate in close, destroy opposition midfield sequences and create clean possessions out of congestion.

Naitanui's impact on the Geelong game was incredible, I think he was the best on ground- every time West Coast surged it was on the back of him setting up decisive ball out of the centre.

The key stats for him, to the extent that any stats measure what he does, are hitouts to advantage, clearances and pressure acts. But even that doesn't tell the full story, because when he taps the ball clear of a contest onto the chest of a midfielder running at full pace in the direction of goal, that's still as a 'hit out to advantage' the same as knocking the ball to ground in a good position for one of your mids to pick it up.

Basically there are "hitouts to advantage" and then there's silver service.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

How the worm turns.

I thought it wasn't about goals?

Of course goals are important, but if it’s the only thing you’re going to offer you’d want to be absolutely head and shoulders above the rest, playing more than 2 above average games, before you are considered.

Or are we still going with Grundy in the ruck?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Of course goals are important, but if it’s the only thing you’re going to offer you’d want to be absolutely head and shoulders above the rest, playing more than 2 above average games, before you are considered.

But what about goal assists?

Are you saying Kennedy has gone from "not being considered" to now being in the team in the space of a week?

Or are we still going with Grundy in the ruck?

Huh?

 

[Ducky Tie]

This shows why Butler should be in I think.

Right up there with goals but his pressure is miles above anyone else so far.