philhawk said:
LH would you happen to know where to find Wisbey's profile on McEntee ??? I recall someone saying he ranked him highly ???
I don't have McEntee's, but I have Bailey's and he draws conparisons everywhere. Read on :
Max Bailey (West Perth)
206/93 "turned 19yo a month before this draft" right foot ruck.
*STYLE LIKE: Spider Burton/ Dean Cox
*MY RANKING (not meant to reflect appropriate draft pick to use): 15
*PROBABILITY OF AFL CAREER: Definite. Ready year 3.
- Within an AFL team list, could prove capable of SUSTAINING a ranking of 5-10.
*HURT FACTORS (Offensive/Defensive/Negative): M / M / L
*TRADEMARK:
- Intelligent targeted ruckwork then 2nd and 3rd effort, if necessary, until the ball is cleared from the area, then run on.
*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
- Raw mobile giant with ethic but little development. Big upside.
- Giant from rural WA who has shown plenty of promise as a mobile tap ruckman, albeit raw, this year. As a genuine tall ruck, I rate him and Ryder behind only McEntee for best available natural ruckman and for most attractive ruck package in this year's draft, despite Bailey's lack of time in the system.
On projected promise, Ryder could be anything, perhaps better than the other two. The one major concern I have with Ryder is his reluctance to push himself, coupled with a degree of outsidedness (other than when going or a mark). McEntee and Bailey almost routinely work hard and are very inside. I do expect Ryder to fulfil his promise but there is a not insignificant does of blind faith behind that statement. The other two are much more honest in their ethic at this stage so there is less chance of them not delivering on their promise.
Bailey might be 206cm but he is no dinosaur.
In terms of specialist rucks, he is the type of ruckman suited to the modern era where a team can't afford a ruck who wins taps, takes a few grabs and does nothing else.
- I've used Spider Burton as a style comparison not simply because of height but mainly based on their similar team ethic, work rate, smarts, deceptive agility and ruckwork attributes. However, Bailey doesn't have the Burton ungainliness and, down the track, I see Bailey as a Dean Cox type.
- At centre bounce, a 206cm ruck who has the leap he sometimes displays, appears to enjoy ruck contests (unlike some other rucks), and routinely tries to direct his palm-outs, is not going to get beaten too often and will gift his team automatic clearance rights a high percentage of the time. He's not there just yet but he will be.
I believe he has a very decent upside. I have ranked him much earlier than I expect him to go but I am very confident about his AFL potential. If I was keen to draft a young ruck, McEntee would be my first choice but Bailey would be next. As a prospect just for ruck, I rate Bailey a surer bet than Ryder (i.e. ignoring Ryder's potential to play other roles). I don't find a helluva lot to separate their upside either, albeit Ryder certainly ahead there.
Bear in mind that
1. I've only seen him a few times but none of those games were in his best 3 games.
2. He often played 2nd fiddle (to the much shorter Justin Wood) rather than being able to demonstrate his best with a lot of time in the ruck as the main ruck.
3. Opposition Colts rucks were generally either on the short side or of dubious ability this year. (As a test of his AFL potential, however, I was disappointed he was beaten by the skinny, albeit rapidly improving, Atkinson late season. )
4. He played '05 in an often very poor Colts team
- He is a couple of months older than top-age but hasn't had the development in the system of most of his peers and being from the country, he clearly has a lot of scope for improvement. Did collect BOG (Clarke Medal) votes in 2 of his 13 games (R 6 where he had 15d, 8 marks and 11ho,and R23 where he had 12d, 4, 26ho) and was also listed as his team's best (in a terrible team) in R3. I didn't see any of those 3 games but was still impressed enough to rank him much earlier than he will probably go.
Restricted to 13 games this year due to injury and illness. I think he missed a year or so with an injury prior to that.
I was pleased he got a fair bit of ground time this year, spending time being "rested" in the FP instead of the normal practice these days of rucks always rotating off the bench. (Perhaps that is the advantage in playing in a team so poor, they need their best players out there as much as possible). There is certainly no indication at this stage that Bailey is like a young Everitt (ie. as dangerous up forward as in ruck) and nor is he as fluent but, when resting in the FP, he does at least work hard to keep the ball in and to ride shotgun when a team mate has, or is going for, the ball. And he can take a grab up there, even though he is not prolific.
What you are buying is an under-developed (in all regards) but very coachable kid who is tall even for a ruck but has very good coordination. For my money, his most appealing attribute though is his terrific "one-percenter/2nd effort" mentality and his rate of effectiveness with it.
*RUCKWORK:
- He does routinely try to direct his hitouts, varies his methods, and has a good feel for where his hitout options are around him. As to be expected at this early stage, doesn't always get it quite right but he has the right mentality, seems to enjoy ruck contests (not all rucks do), has been very effective at U18 level much of the time, and shows definite AFL promise.
- At ball-ups, he often comes off a short or virtually no run-up. He often also jumps a bit late. I'm inclined to think that he loses some of his height advantage in doing so as his opponent has more momentum up when he jumps and is also more likely to "stake claim to the vertical path" (i.e. forcing Bailey to have to jump with his opponent's body already providing some resistance, from slightly above, to Bailey's jump. Bailey also goes for the bent arm palm-out a fair bit. Theoretically it gives a ruckman more control of his direction but, again, a smaller ruck with arm more outstretched can finish up with his hand higher than Bailey's. None of those things happen all the time or even almost all the time. Just fairly often. He usually gets away with it at U18 level but you want to use all your attributes to the max and one of Bailey's is his height. He's still only new and all concerns are fairly minor and should be fixable so I'm not concerned. Also he has copped injury and illness so I'm not sure whether he had to make some short-term concessions.
*DISPOSAL:
- Generally accurate kick, fairly often with a good hurt factor. Fluent kicking style. Economical action.
- Reliable by hand. Sometimes quick hands.
*DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Won't be found wanting for footy smarts. Intelligent player. Reliable decision-maker. Good poise. Routinely looks for options.
- Routinely terrific evasion for his size (mainly sharp, unannounced side-step)
- Has plenty of other cleverness in him. eg (1) in a crowded pack marking contest, flicking the ball behind to a team mate running past, instead of trying for the very low percentage mark. (2) Even while under great pressure almost sitting on the ground, delaying his feed until a team mate running past has got a little break on his opponent, then deftly weighting his handball so it goes over the head of both and allows the team mate to run onto it in his flight path.
- Usually keeps his feet during a tackle and keeps his arms-free.
*HANDS:
- He is certainly no Judd but he is very clean for a big bloke, let alone a giant. He has a fair way to bend down for the ground ball but he doesn't often fumble, even under great pressure, and gets his share of genuine hardball gets.
*OVERHEAD MARKING:
- Marking judgement can sometimes be a bit off at this stage. Whether that is intrinsic or just a function of growing into his body, I can't say. At the moment he is inclined to too often either run under the ball or fly from too far back, mainly the former.
- As with all giants (I'm talking guys over 200cm here), some pack marks present a greater challenge than they do for slightly smaller guys in that the collective mass of the pack often dictate the "pack's" positioning and collective timing of leaps. If the giant is in front, he has some control but, if not, he often has to try to take the ball at an awkward "neck" height with arms trying to reach "through" other arms. The principal contract for the not-as-tall players is essentially a simpler one - who can reach the highest, almost straight up over their head, a more natural and less interference-affected arm posture. Footballers choosing to kick to a contest usually intrinsically kick on top of the heads of a pack. Many giants are good overhead one-on-one or in front of the pack. I have observed that when caught mid-pack or if the ball isn't kicked "too high" for the pack, a giant's strike rate in holding marks doesn't seem to be as good as the "smaller" talls. Bailey is very coordinated for a giant and he will be good overhead in various situations. I just have this general belief that most giants are not as effective overhead in as many different scenarios as KPP talls are.
- Currently sometimes struggles to hold his ground under pressure sometimes, due mainly to lack of strength (which will come) but what I like about him in such situations is his ability to very quickly re-adjust his position and come again and still be able to have a crack at the pill. i.e. Even when he is initially squeezed off-balance, he is seldom robbed of all opportunity to contest. That's a big plus.
- Perhaps not unrelated to the above, his hands overhead are not routinely clean either, at this stage at least. He does take his share of 50/50 marks though and from the front (particularly) or from behind.
- He does attack his marks with purpose. He has a good leap and is not awkward or inclined to rely on his height advantage. Despite all being giants, it would be a mistake to think of him as another Sandilands or Street.
*ATHLETICISM:
- Surprising pace over a short-medium distance for his size. (about slowish, certainly not sluggish, AFL midfielder pace). Off the mark, his DC 5m time of 1.04 would suggest he is genuinely quick (not just for his size). However, although genuinely impressive for his size, his speed off the mark in a game is not as quick as that time may suggest. Ryder is very athletic. At this stage, I would back Bailey to be at least competitive in a run with Ryder and I would not be at all surprised if he beat Ryder.
- Very mobile.
- Surprising agility in all areas - recovery, defensive and offensive. Not special per se, but special for a 206cm virtually 18yo still growing into his body and fairly undeveloped footy-wise. Just to give an isolated example, an opponent came charging at him with menace, a la Archer/Pickett, from 20m away and from the angle off Bailey's flight path. Just as he was about to put Bailey into tomorrow land, Bailey casually did a Robert Harvey sideways dance step and, matador-like, waived the opponent through, the opponent sailing straight past with a momentum that took 20m to arrest. And Bailey's view of the opponent had been obscured until the last moment.
- I'm not convinced about Bailey's leap on a routine basis. I have seen him do a couple of huge leaps but there have also been a number of times where he appeared to be out-leapt. At 206cm you don't need a huge leap but it is still a fairly important asset if you have it.
- Slim but not seriously skinny. Is currently 96kg but doesn't looks it. (May have bulked up a bit in recent months). Unlike some of the young ruck prospects, there should be no query about his ability to bulk up well beyond 100kg. Holds his ground reasonably OK against other 18y.o.'s at this stage but should have no trouble holding his ground in time. Like most 18yo giants, he will improve a lot once he bulks up but. He needs more strength / power in his legs to give him more power in his jump.
- Already covers a fair bit of ground and works quite hard but his endurance, while not bad, possibly has some way to go.
*INTENSITY, ETHIC:
- Very impressive intensity. In traditional terminology, he shows almost "ruck-rover" intensity and agility. Does all the 1%ers, big on 2nd efforts, reacts fairly quickly, blocks/ smothers (!) etc whenever possible. Quite often shows real desperation. Fights for the ball on the ground. Prepared to launch his body horizontally at ball or opponent. Runs quite hard both ways and runs on.
Usually attacks the ball. Wins probably more than his share of 50/50 ground contests
Attacks a marking spoil and is effective in doing so.
- I like a ruckman who doesn't think his job at a stop-play is over once the hitout has been contested. I want ruckmen who take the attitude that
"My job at every stop play is to do all I can to help clear the ball to our advantage, or at least to stop the opposition clearing it to their advantage. My job there starts at the ruck contest but doesn't end until the ball has moved well out of range from the traffic".
Bailey has that attitude.
- Of good character. A well-rounded kid off-field.
*CONSISTENCY:
- Hard to judge as he was often 2nd string ruck, played in a poor team and is new to the system. Took 8 marks in at least 2 of his games but only 1 in 2 other games.
*AFL VERSATILITY:
- Natural ruck.
*CSI (COMPARATIVE SCOPE for IMPROVEMENT):
- High. Although 2 months older than top-age, his main experience is country WA and he has has missed a fair bit of time through injury. Should have huge scope for improvement through both skills development, bulking up, and experience.
*QUERY:
- Consistency of leap.
*SOME STATS:
- 13 Colts games '05. Avg 10d, 4m.
*OTHER STUFF:
- Been playing country footy prior to this year and also missed a big chunk of development time due to an injury.