List Mgmt. Ross Lyon - Sacked

Is Ross still the man for the job?


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Johnny Dalmas

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Like Salim I think the club will honour its contract and Lyon will coach in 2020.

I feel, however and unfortunately, that we may have missed an opportunity to get a bit ruthless, to go back to "2011 mode" and really test the market to see if we are actually doing as well as we can.

Lyon no longer fits the profile of a premiership coach. No coach in over 150 years of VFL/AFL history has won their first premiership after 300 games.

Its going to be one hell of an outlier if he becomes a premiership coach this late in his career.

More specifically, he's been coaching for 13 years at two different clubs with a whole bunch of different players and footy ops support staff and he has only once shown himself able to construct an offense that ranked inside the top half of the league for efficiency: 2014 with us. That year we ranked 9th in the league in terms of disposals needed to generate a score. In every other year, his teams have ranked in the bottom half of the league for the number of disposals needed to generate a score (ie, total season score/total season disposals).

By way of contrast only one premiership team since 2007 has ranked in the bottom half of the league for offensive efficiency: the Bulldogs in 2016. Like I said, one hell of an outlier.

In short, his teams just need too many damn disposals to generate a score. _All_ of his teams regardless of Reiwoldt or Pavlich, or Hogan or even good ol' Tabs. Doesn't matter whether its Milne or Ballas or Walters. Lenny Hayes or Fyfe. Whether its an old team full of role players or a young team full of potential. Under the roof or at Subi or Burswood. Doesn't matter if the assistants were Kirk or Silvagni or Hale or Sumich. Both in winning seasons or in losing seasons Lyon's teams are simply too inefficient with ball in hand.

Is that a lack of emphasis on "skill"? Proritising behind-the-ball structures ahead of in-front-of-the-ball positioning? To much stoppage and contested footy and not enough forward craft? Too much fast play compared to slow play possession footy coming out of half-back? Bad luck with injuries or recruiting? Too many role players?

Well ultimately it really doesn't matter too much. What counts is that the AFL is about winning flags and after 13 years he is pretty damn unlikely to do the job. He just can't get his teams to play well enough when they have the ball.
 

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darkshines

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Like Salim I think the club will honour its contract and Lyon will coach in 2020.

I feel, however and unfortunately, that we may have missed an opportunity to get a bit ruthless, to go back to "2011 mode" and really test the market to see if we are actually doing as well as we can.

Lyon no longer fits the profile of a premiership coach. No coach in over 150 years of VFL/AFL history has won their first premiership after 300 games.

Its going to be one hell of an outlier if he becomes a premiership coach this late in his career.

More specifically, he's been coaching for 13 years at two different clubs with a whole bunch of different players and footy ops support staff and he has only once shown himself able to construct an offense that ranked inside the top half of the league for efficiency: 2014 with us. That year we ranked 9th in the league in terms of disposals needed to generate a score. In every other year, his teams have ranked in the bottom half of the league for the number of disposals needed to generate a score (ie, total season score/total season disposals).

By way of contrast only one premiership team since 2007 has ranked in the bottom half of the league for offensive efficiency: the Bulldogs in 2016. Like I said, one hell of an outlier.

In short, his teams just need too many damn disposals to generate a score. _All_ of his teams regardless of Reiwoldt or Pavlich, or Hogan or even good ol' Tabs. Doesn't matter whether its Milne or Ballas or Walters. Lenny Hayes or Fyfe. Whether its an old team full of role players or a young team full of potential. Under the roof or at Subi or Burswood. Doesn't matter if the assistants were Kirk or Silvagni or Hale or Sumich. Both in winning seasons or in losing seasons Lyon's teams are simply too inefficient with ball in hand.

Is that a lack of emphasis on "skill"? Proritising behind-the-ball structures ahead of in-front-of-the-ball positioning? To much stoppage and contested footy and not enough forward craft? Too much fast play compared to slow play possession footy coming out of half-back? Bad luck with injuries or recruiting? Too many role players?

Well ultimately it really doesn't matter too much. What counts is that the AFL is about winning flags and after 13 years he is pretty damn unlikely to do the job. He just can't get his teams to play well enough when they have the ball.
Possibly the best I've ever seen it put.
 

tacopavlich

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Like Salim I think the club will honour its contract and Lyon will coach in 2020.

I feel, however and unfortunately, that we may have missed an opportunity to get a bit ruthless, to go back to "2011 mode" and really test the market to see if we are actually doing as well as we can.

Lyon no longer fits the profile of a premiership coach. No coach in over 150 years of VFL/AFL history has won their first premiership after 300 games.

Its going to be one hell of an outlier if he becomes a premiership coach this late in his career.

More specifically, he's been coaching for 13 years at two different clubs with a whole bunch of different players and footy ops support staff and he has only once shown himself able to construct an offense that ranked inside the top half of the league for efficiency: 2014 with us. That year we ranked 9th in the league in terms of disposals needed to generate a score. In every other year, his teams have ranked in the bottom half of the league for the number of disposals needed to generate a score (ie, total season score/total season disposals).

By way of contrast only one premiership team since 2007 has ranked in the bottom half of the league for offensive efficiency: the Bulldogs in 2016. Like I said, one hell of an outlier.

In short, his teams just need too many damn disposals to generate a score. _All_ of his teams regardless of Reiwoldt or Pavlich, or Hogan or even good ol' Tabs. Doesn't matter whether its Milne or Ballas or Walters. Lenny Hayes or Fyfe. Whether its an old team full of role players or a young team full of potential. Under the roof or at Subi or Burswood. Doesn't matter if the assistants were Kirk or Silvagni or Hale or Sumich. Both in winning seasons or in losing seasons Lyon's teams are simply too inefficient with ball in hand.

Is that a lack of emphasis on "skill"? Proritising behind-the-ball structures ahead of in-front-of-the-ball positioning? To much stoppage and contested footy and not enough forward craft? Too much fast play compared to slow play possession footy coming out of half-back? Bad luck with injuries or recruiting? Too many role players?

Well ultimately it really doesn't matter too much. What counts is that the AFL is about winning flags and after 13 years he is pretty damn unlikely to do the job. He just can't get his teams to play well enough when they have the ball.
Your stat is a self fulfilling prophecy. Coaches rarely last a few years without a premiership simply because most fans and administrations scapegoat the coach because it's just easy to do so. Richmond are an example of a club that bucked the trend and persisted with Hardwick despite enormous pressure externally he wasn't up to it, his team showing pretty much nothing for 8 years until they finally won.

The narrative you paint is a coach that has been in the system for 13 years and has shown nothing, which is objectively false. What we actually have is a person that has made two grand finals with two separate teams, and is only a few years into his first rebuild. I explain this to my friends that don't follow AFL and they are confounded why our fans want to get rid of him so quickly.

a 2011 style coup is likely never going to happen soon. Lyon has weaknesses as a coach, every coach does. Even Geelong fans criticize Chris Scott on their board. Go on West Coasts board before 2018 and there were plenty of bigfooty experts delineating all of Simpsons flaws and how West Coast would go no where under him and the current administration. But until you actually name who else could possibly be available to coach us and do a better job, it's a moot discussion.
 
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nurries

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Your stat is a self fulfilling prophecy. Coaches rarely last a few years without a premiership simply because most fans and administrations scapegoat the coach because it's just easy to do so. Richmond are an example of a club that bucked the trend and persisted with Hardwick despite enormous pressure externally he wasn't up to it, his team showing pretty much nothing for 8 years until they finally won.

The you paint is a coach that has been in the system for 13 years and has shown nothing, which is objectively false. What we actually have is a person that has made two grand finals with two separate teams, and is only a few years into his first rebuild. I explain this to my friends that don't follow AFL and they are confounded why our fans want to get rid of him so quickly.

a 2011 style coup is likely never going to happen soon. Lyon has weaknesses as a coach, every coach does. Even Geelong fans criticize Chris Scott on their board. Go on West Coasts board before 2018 and there were plenty of bigfooty experts delineating all of Simpsons flaws and how West Coast would go no where under him and the current administration. But until you actually name who else could possibly be available to coach us and do a better job, it's a moot discussion.
The difference is Hardwick and Simpson and Scott for that matter were willing to change, to listen to others and not be Martyrs. They surrounded themselves with capable assistants and great football management teams. Ross hasn’t yet done these things and we don’t have those great teams yet. I am not sure whether he would be willing to change at this late stage.
 

PurpleEyes

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Like Salim I think the club will honour its contract and Lyon will coach in 2020.

I feel, however and unfortunately, that we may have missed an opportunity to get a bit ruthless, to go back to "2011 mode" and really test the market to see if we are actually doing as well as we can.

Lyon no longer fits the profile of a premiership coach. No coach in over 150 years of VFL/AFL history has won their first premiership after 300 games.

Its going to be one hell of an outlier if he becomes a premiership coach this late in his career.

More specifically, he's been coaching for 13 years at two different clubs with a whole bunch of different players and footy ops support staff and he has only once shown himself able to construct an offense that ranked inside the top half of the league for efficiency: 2014 with us. That year we ranked 9th in the league in terms of disposals needed to generate a score. In every other year, his teams have ranked in the bottom half of the league for the number of disposals needed to generate a score (ie, total season score/total season disposals).

By way of contrast only one premiership team since 2007 has ranked in the bottom half of the league for offensive efficiency: the Bulldogs in 2016. Like I said, one hell of an outlier.

In short, his teams just need too many damn disposals to generate a score. _All_ of his teams regardless of Reiwoldt or Pavlich, or Hogan or even good ol' Tabs. Doesn't matter whether its Milne or Ballas or Walters. Lenny Hayes or Fyfe. Whether its an old team full of role players or a young team full of potential. Under the roof or at Subi or Burswood. Doesn't matter if the assistants were Kirk or Silvagni or Hale or Sumich. Both in winning seasons or in losing seasons Lyon's teams are simply too inefficient with ball in hand.

Is that a lack of emphasis on "skill"? Proritising behind-the-ball structures ahead of in-front-of-the-ball positioning? To much stoppage and contested footy and not enough forward craft? Too much fast play compared to slow play possession footy coming out of half-back? Bad luck with injuries or recruiting? Too many role players?

Well ultimately it really doesn't matter too much. What counts is that the AFL is about winning flags and after 13 years he is pretty damn unlikely to do the job. He just can't get his teams to play well enough when they have the ball.
Sounds like a great story ... if not for the fact that Lyon got within 1 point of winning a premiership.

Also, there has only been a total of 96 games coached by 3 coaches with over 300 games coached with no premierships. Statistically speaking, 0 premierships in 96 games is an expected result. Cherry picking such a small sample data and then presenting it as "going to be one hell of an outlier" shows a complete lack of objectivity and understanding of statistics and probabilities.

"disposals needed to generate a score" ... why does that obscure statistic even matter?
By your own admission, the Western Bulldogs, in as recently as 2016, managed to win a premiership with a poor "disposals per score".
They also had a poor points scored ranking of 12th.
In the last 13 years, the worst ranking of any premier for points against has been 6th, which is stronger evidence and supports an argument that it is more important for a premiership coach to be defensive, not offensive with their game plan.
Nevermind, I believe Freo were ranked 1st (or 2nd) in 2010 for this quite ridiculous disposals per score ranking. We finished 6th on the H&A ladder and lost a Semi Final, while Lyon's St Kilda, "ranked in the bottom half" finished 3rd in the H&A and missed out on a premiership by 1 point.
 
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Johnny Dalmas

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...
The you paint is a coach that has been in the system for 13 years and has shown nothing, which is objectively false.
....
Absolute tosh. I never said he has shown nothing. In fact I've said in several bigfooty posts that I think he us a good coach (not great or even very good, but "good").

His appointment in 2011 was categorically the right decision. His performance between 2012-2015 showed him to be the best coach we have had (although that may be a low bar).

But it's 2019 not 2013. Is the club doing everything it can right now to be the best it can? That's the disappointing part of what has happened over the last few years. We were ambitious for 5 minutes but quickly fell back into complacency.
 

tacopavlich

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The difference is Hardwick and Simpson and Scott for that matter were willing to change, to listen to others and not be Martyrs. They surrounded themselves with capable assistants and great football management teams. Ross hasn’t yet done these things and we don’t have those great teams yet. I am not sure whether he would be willing to change at this late stage.
Hardwick and Simpson certainly were not considered to be surrounded by great football management teams and assistants until "after" they won a flag, it's called outcome bias. The truth is we won't know if Lyon can rebuild a side to win a premiership until he has actually been given a chance to see out a rebuild. Making a deterministic argument based on an obscure stat is beyond unreasonable.
 

tacopavlich

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But it's 2019 not 2013. Is the club doing everything it can right now to be the best it can? That's the disappointing part of what has happened over the last few years. We were ambitious for 5 minutes but quickly fell back into complacency.
If an amazing coach was available then that would change the discussion, but this isn't actually the scenario or the debate.
 

PurpleReign

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I haven’t read many posts in this thread so hopefully I’m not reapeating something that someone else has already said, but I have noticed something very interesting with RTB. Champion players that he has coached hold him in the highest regard. You only have to listen to how Riewoldt, Montagna and Dal Santo speak about him. Pav once said he was exactly the type of coach he hoped for. Fyfe speaks highly of him. But dud players speak about him with contempt. I don’t know why but I find that interesting.
 

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Johnny Dalmas

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Hardwick and Simpson certainly were not considered to be surrounded by great football management teams and assistants until "after" they won a flag, it's called outcome bias. The truth is we won't know if Lyon can rebuild a side to win a premiership until he has actually been given a chance to see out a rebuild. Making a deterministic argument based on an obscure stat is beyond unreasonable.
No we don't, but we will get the chance to see how it all pans out next year: there is little doubt the club will let him, at least, coach out his current contract.
If we have a strong winning season there is every chance he will get renewed: without going through an open selection process.
Although I don't know if he will publicly volunteer to revisit his claim that there will be "no excuses" for not winning a flag by 2020.

BTW: just a heads up. I don't think you know "deterministic" means. You may want to do a bit of research on that word.
 

dockerfemme

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I haven’t read many posts in this thread so hopefully I’m not reapeating something that someone else has already said, but I have noticed something very interesting with RTB. Champion players that he has coached hold him in the highest regard. You only have to listen to how Riewoldt, Montagna and Dal Santo speak about him. Pav once said he was exactly the type of coach he hoped for. Fyfe speaks highly of him. But dud players speak about him with contempt. I don’t know why but I find that interesting.
Who has spoken of him with contempt?
 

Johnny Dalmas

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If an amazing coach was available then that would change the discussion, but this isn't actually the scenario or the debate.
But my post was all about returning to what we did in 2011 when we actively sought out an alternative.

When we first approached Lyon in 2011 we didnt even know he was available for 2012. Our initial contact to him was about taking over in 2013 (because Harvey's last contracted year was 2012).

When you ask questions sometimes you get a surprising answer.
 

Johnny Dalmas

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I haven’t read many posts in this thread so hopefully I’m not reapeating something that someone else has already said, but I have noticed something very interesting with RTB. Champion players that he has coached hold him in the highest regard. You only have to listen to how Riewoldt, Montagna and Dal Santo speak about him. Pav once said he was exactly the type of coach he hoped for. Fyfe speaks highly of him. But dud players speak about him with contempt. I don’t know why but I find that interesting.
I think there is a perception about that he focusses a lot of attention on those players who are playing (or likely to play) senior football right now. But the more junior players on the list who are developing or there for depth only don't get as much attention.

Whether that is true or not. Who knows? Probably no-one here.

As a strategy though it makes some sense. The head coach should focus on those who can impact right now. You can only ever win this week's game this week. There are plenty of development coaches to spend lots of face-to-face time with the more junior players.
 

FreoMonocle

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But it's 2019 not 2013. Is the club doing everything it can right now to be the best it can? That's the disappointing part of what has happened over the last few years. We were ambitious for 5 minutes but quickly fell back into complacency.
Turning over the majority of your list in a short time frame to replenish talent for the next decade isn't complacent, it's a hard nosed thing to do. It's difficult to measure how successful a rebuild is until after it's completed, we view success by the immediate year instead of the journey through several years of hardship that a rebuild is. Until our gun recruits in Brayshaw, Cerra, Logue and Valente etc have enough experience and built their bodies up, playing them is a liability in terms of an objective to win this match and this season (kids don't start out as a star 30+ possession beast, even those with the talent struggle to hit 20 on a good day).

Carlton for example, if it is in a rebuild, is on a different trajectory altogether than Freo. We say that they're rebuilding because they have been crap for a long time. But that isn't a rebuild like Freo embarked upon, they were getting their good draft picks by virtue of their putrescence, not a rebuild by design.

Same with Freo's truly crap years (not counting these last few) where we were just crap, as opposed to what we have been doing. The club accepts that it get's a bloody nose for a few years to get a list that is capable for the next decade (the intention, yet to be seen if that is how it pans out).

We shouldn't have been in the position that we needed to go so drastic - it's 30 players or similar that have been culled, but given that a good player is on your list for 10-12 years (eons in the case of Sandi), but at the end of 2016 we had SFA first round picks on our list, a list mismanagement issue that mostly predated the Steves at that point (first rounders only being up to age 22-23 for the steves tenure, aside from Hill we had no senior first round picks and were just plain lucky that we had Fyfe and Walters quality). As for our recruiting in the Steves tenure, GC and GWS hampered it for a few years and then in our contending window we had poor picks because we were doing well. Without enough talent, we gambled in recruiting and trading, to try and get good players for cheap and it didn't pay off e.g. Simpson, Gumbleton, Bennell, Sylvia, probably add Apeness as a gamble too.
 

Scham

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Your stat is a self fulfilling prophecy. Coaches rarely last a few years without a premiership simply because most fans and administrations scapegoat the coach because it's just easy to do so. Richmond are an example of a club that bucked the trend and persisted with Hardwick despite enormous pressure externally he wasn't up to it, his team showing pretty much nothing for 8 years until they finally won.

The narrative you paint is a coach that has been in the system for 13 years and has shown nothing, which is objectively false. What we actually have is a person that has made two grand finals with two separate teams, and is only a few years into his first rebuild. I explain this to my friends that don't follow AFL and they are confounded why our fans want to get rid of him so quickly.

a 2011 style coup is likely never going to happen soon. Lyon has weaknesses as a coach, every coach does. Even Geelong fans criticize Chris Scott on their board. Go on West Coasts board before 2018 and there were plenty of bigfooty experts delineating all of Simpsons flaws and how West Coast would go no where under him and the current administration. But until you actually name who else could possibly be available to coach us and do a better job, it's a moot discussion.
What’s a moot discussion?

Whether Ross will coach us next year? Yes, I agree that is a moot discussion and that point was made on the first page or two of this thread. Says a lot about Bigfooty that it’s still being discussed 580 odd pages later.

But if you’re referring to the subject of whether Ross is the best person to take us into the future beyond 2020 and ultimately to our first flag, then you’re massively wrong. That debate will continue until he achieves that elusive flag or until the memory of him fades into our history and all of the Ross supporters on here are gone.
 

malpaso

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I like our 'change' or 'rebuild' in the last 3 years. I think we are headed in the right direction albeit let down by some speculative recruiting prior to last off-season and untimely injuries to the wrong personnel.
We have a legit shot at 10 wins this season, hell that's more than I thought at the beginning. But what was important to me was that we didn't get absolutely wiped off the field like in 2017 and 2018 and we haven't bar one game.
Our second half of the season whilst disappointing in terms of wins hasn't be a complete whitewash.
As far as the naysayer's in this thread, where did you actually have us this year if it was so drastically different than it is currently? Must be a huge disparity given the ranting in here.
 

nurries

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I like our 'change' or 'rebuild' in the last 3 years. I think we are headed in the right direction albeit let down by some speculative recruiting prior to last off-season and untimely injuries to the wrong personnel.
We have a legit shot at 10 wins this season, hell that's more than I thought at the beginning. But what was important to me was that we didn't get absolutely wiped off the field like in 2017 and 2018 and we haven't bar one game.
Our second half of the season whilst disappointing in terms of wins hasn't be a complete whitewash.
As far as the naysayer's in this thread, where did you actually have us this year if it was so drastically different than it is currently? Must be a huge disparity given the ranting in here.
With the players we recruited and looking at the draw I had us 12-13 Wins which we should of had imo
 

BlueE

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The difference is Hardwick and Simpson and Scott for that matter were willing to change, to listen to others and not be Martyrs. They surrounded themselves with capable assistants and great football management teams. Ross hasn’t yet done these things and we don’t have those great teams yet. I am not sure whether he would be willing to change at this late stage.
Even now for 2020 he's surrounded himself with assistants Hale and Rock (and Webb?) and Rosich who overrules Bell.
 

poshman

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I like our 'change' or 'rebuild' in the last 3 years. I think we are headed in the right direction albeit let down by some speculative recruiting prior to last off-season and untimely injuries to the wrong personnel.
We have a legit shot at 10 wins this season, hell that's more than I thought at the beginning. But what was important to me was that we didn't get absolutely wiped off the field like in 2017 and 2018 and we haven't bar one game.
Our second half of the season whilst disappointing in terms of wins hasn't be a complete whitewash.
As far as the naysayer's in this thread, where did you actually have us this year if it was so drastically different than it is currently? Must be a huge disparity given the ranting in here.
This is what I find strange - most people had us winning 8-9 games at best and most footy experts less. A heap on here would have been happy with 9-11 wins which is right where we are at. I am hoping we get our tenth this week. I can't see us beating Port in Adelaide but ten wins, an improved percentage, wins over top teams, injuries to key players (this week 7 of our first 12 selected out) - No one has demonstrated a reasonable argument as to why they are upset other than a vague prediction that they don't think Ross can take us to a flag. Which as an argument is almost impossible to prove or disprove. As far as rebuilds go we have been exceptional up to this point. We should win 12-14 games next year or maybe the expectation should be 11-13? Our list will be younger again with Sandi and Ballas going, we have developed a backline that would be the envy of almost all in the league. Have KPF options and a strong young ruckman, excellent ruck/fwd in place. Our mid is led by one of the best in the game and we are adding pieces around him that will continue to improve. Our midfield is the are of concern. If Brayshaw continues to improve I think he will be at least a solid B+ player with the potential to be an A grader.

We may lose Langdon, although I am not as concerned as he has said he likes to leave his contract until the end of term anyway, and if he does leave we will get something decent in return. Hill would be a big loss, but I don't see how we wouldn't get a high first plus something for him. On top of that, we have the NGA picks coming through. and even if none are out and out stars, Liam Henry projects as he could at least be a skilful B grader, picking those types up for essentially late selections makes a massive difference to a list.

I can't wait to see our progress next year. I am hoping for a 50 plus goal season from Hogan and two other forwards in the 30 plus goal range. And Fyfe for the Brownlow.
 

poshman

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Even now for 2020 he's surrounded himself with assistants Hale and Rock (and Webb?) and Rosich who overrules Bell.
How the hell anyone here would know if Rosich overrules Bell...

In leadership terms, he outranks Bell and is only accountable to the board. If you think that on a daily basis Rosich over-rules Bell you are kidding yourself.

The Hagdorn like muck racking around here is ridiculous.
 

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