maka
All Australian
- Jan 15, 2011
- 899
- 330
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
bare assertion fallacy......
who doesn't, Carlton maybe?
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bare assertion fallacy......
Your post man ...you provide the evidence of which teams pencil in a victory against us......who doesn't, Carlton maybe?
Posting here rather than the Hogan thread because the point is more relevant to coaching -
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Every year of his career so far, Hogan has been able to maintain a 2 goal/game average (1.9 in 2016). This is throughout periods of injuries, drops in form and personal issues. This is also under 2 different coaches (Roos, Goodwin) with differing game styles. There have been games where Jesse has struggled but he always bounces back because class is permanent. 4 consecutive years of averaging 2 goals a game or more is pretty clear evidence of class and consistency.
Jesse himself looks as fit and hungry as ever. He looks capable of scoring 45+ goals this year and beyond. IF he does struggle to impact the scoreboard, based on either lack of/poor forward 50 entries or being played too far up the ground, than we need serious reflection on our coaching methods. The proof is in the pudding.
This is not something to judge right now after 3 games, but after a full season. I'm just putting this out there now.
IMO, it would be a serious indictment on Lyon and forward coach David Hale if he drops below 2 gpg this year.
You are being unreasonably selective to suit your argument.
You are right ... it isn't something to judge right now.
How much different would that likely look if Hogan had have played in our high scoring Round 1 win?
And people accuse me of choosing selective data when I use the last 20 years as my sample.
If you have a life and forums don't interest you, why bother posting now? All you do is trash the club. It's hardly surprising you get called a troll.
Please indicate where I have praised failure.
dunno what you thought those stats were proving.. Eagles had 7 more players with more than 150 games, they were a full year older and had played 40 more games on average.
Add Saints in 5th and they are a handful of the teams the experts had fighting it out for the spoon.
At least the experts were right about Carlton.
I enjoy your analysis, and generally agree with what you are saying. I think Brisbane is an okay club for us to benchmark against. Different paths and list profiles for sure. A key factor for our club is that there is some wholesale renovations happening in particular areas of the ground, which this year includes the forward line. If anyone expects a recovering Hogan to come in and immediately dominate the goal scoring then they are showing a lack of football perspective. But I have no doubt that he will be a weapon for us and structural game changer. Similarly I have no doubt Lobb will be a key component of how we structure our attack, but don't expect it to happen until we actually can predict who his forward line team mates will be, and even whether he will be lining up as a forward or a ruck.I'm not sure why Freo is being compared to Brisbane Lions.
BL currently have a team with 8 players 22years and younger. Those young talented players are there because of Brisbane's sustained failures in the past providing them with top draft picks.
Remember BL got a priority pick in 2016.
BL's 8 young players include 5 first rounders, 2 Academy players, a 2nd round pick and a high 3rd round pick.
(Meanwhile, Freo have 6 players 22years and under, including 2 first round picks, 1 second round pick, 1 fourth round, 1 fifth round and a rookie)
Any difference in success between Brisbane Lions and Fremantle can be easily argued to be the quality of the lists.
In any case, Fremantle are currently still in their 3rd year of a rebuild after being minor premiers in 2015.
Brisbane Lions have been rebuilding since 2010/11. They went from 2011 to late 2017 fielding teams with 10 or less 50+ club game players.
But now during Chris Fagan's coaching, they have reduced their team changes.
On the weekend, their player with the least career games was a 24 year old backup ruckman with 20 AFL career games. Freo had 3 players aged 22years or younger with less than 20 career games.
Comparisons between the two is totally useless when debating the quality of each team's coaches because we are not comparing apples with apples.
I'm not sure why Freo is being compared to Brisbane Lions.
BL currently have a team with 8 players 22years and younger. Those young talented players are there because of Brisbane's sustained failures in the past providing them with top draft picks.
Remember BL got a priority pick in 2016.
BL's 8 young players include 5 first rounders, 2 Academy players, a 2nd round pick and a high 3rd round pick.
(Meanwhile, Freo have 6 players 22years and under, including 2 first round picks, 1 second round pick, 1 fourth round, 1 fifth round and a rookie)
Any difference in success between Brisbane Lions and Fremantle can be easily argued to be the quality of the lists.
In any case, Fremantle are currently still in their 3rd year of a rebuild after being minor premiers in 2015.
Brisbane Lions have been rebuilding since 2010/11. They went from 2011 to late 2017 fielding teams with 10 or less 50+ club game players.
But now during Chris Fagan's coaching, they have reduced their team changes.
On the weekend, their player with the least career games was a 24 year old backup ruckman with 20 AFL career games. Freo had 3 players aged 22years or younger with less than 20 career games.
Comparisons between the two is totally useless when debating the quality of each team's coaches because we are not comparing apples with apples.
Who do you think is our best comparison in the league then? I'd worry greatly if you're suggesting we should be comparing ourselves to the 4th year of Brisbane/St.Kilda/Melbourne's rebuild because that's suggesting we're in for a 10 yr rebuild. I reckon the age range for the team on the weekend is on the younger side but definitely nearing contention. Our average games played looks a bit young but that's only because we're missing the 150+ game guys. The average age of the team would probably be pretty comparable to others like Brisbane/St.Kilda I'd have thought.
Obviously it's a little early to take anything meaningful from the comparison but come seasons end if Brisbane make finals and we're sitting in the bottom 6 you'd have to b a little disappointed.
Not that you asked me but I think if we have 2 of Fyfe, Hill, Blakely, Sandi/Darcy, Ballas, Bennell then Brisbane are a fine comparison. Comparing the teams when we are missing the top end talent through injury and they are missing Marcus Adams (who is arguably the only best 22 missing) makes for a false comparison. Over the course of the season, I expect Brisbane to be ahead of us because I don't expect to get enough of that list on the park often enough.
Fair enough. I personally have basically written off Hill, Sandi, Ballas and Bennel (and Darcy was dropped because he doesn't have the fitness, he could have been in the team). We've had Fyfe for the first three so Blakely is the only real miss (although he's a big one imo). You can't keep injury prone players on your list (with little hope of them ever playing) and then use them as excuses for losses.
Assuming we get Fyfe and Blakely back soon and Brisbane revert to the mean injury wise I reckon it's still a very fair comparison. I don't think we necessarily need to equal them on the W-L column, just have to put up performances on a similar level.
Well Bennell, Sandi and Ballas will be gone by years end, but I generally agree with you.
With Neale gone Blakely out is a huge hole though.
I'd prefer Ross was fast tracking Cerra in this time TBH, or bringing Nyhuis in and pushing Conca midfield
Blakely in does give us another option at half back as well though - and he is proven ball winner there. So gives us a lot more versatility. Conca and Cerra were both stuck at HB on the weekend because Hamling got injured. Hamling comes back in, Blakely comes in, and then we have the ability to rotate Blakely, Conca and Cerra all as mid/defs. Given Nyhuis was the emergency last week I think they considered bringing him in to release both Conca and Cerra to the midfield. If Hamling is an out I think Nyhuis or Cox comes in to push Conca/Cerra to mid.I do worry we're putting a little too much pressure on Blakely considering he's never actually been that full-time A-grade mid. We basically need him to be a Neale level player, I'm not sure he's there yet tbh.
Both Cerra and Conca are big for me yeah.
Who do you think is our best comparison in the league then? I'd worry greatly if you're suggesting we should be comparing ourselves to the 4th year of Brisbane/St.Kilda/Melbourne's rebuild because that's suggesting we're in for a 10 yr rebuild. I reckon the age range for the team on the weekend is on the younger side but definitely nearing contention. Our average games played looks a bit young but that's only because we're missing the 150+ game guys. The average age of the team would probably be pretty comparable to others like Brisbane/St.Kilda I'd have thought.
Obviously it's a little early to take anything meaningful from the comparison but come seasons end if Brisbane make finals and we're sitting in the bottom 6 you'd have to b a little disappointed.
I am really liking what my 50+ club games stats tell me.
Teams that find themselves in long term rebuilds will typically, rarely get above 10 50+ club game players each week.
But you can also see when clubs appear to be healthier, turning and seeing benefits of their rebuilds. Their teams become more stable and they show a gradual increase in their 50+ club game numbers.
Right now, Freo's starting 22 has 5. That is extremely low and reflects our recent high list turnover in the last 3 years, compounded by our current injuries to our experienced players ... and although we may further add to that high turnover with future retirements to the likes of Sandilands, Ballas, Mundy, SHill ... we are very much at the bottom of our 50+ club game players stat and that will continue to increase in 2019 & 2020. But injuries, losses and lack of form/development shown by our newer players will inhibit the increase in that stat and hence prolong the rebuild. On the flip side, with limited injuries, wins and a stable starting 22, Freo's rebuild could easily be classed as completed during the 2020 season (even 2019 if the football gods shine on us).
Check out the differences with the two Freo teams below, the first being as we were in Round 4, with games played for Freo in brackets, the second being a possible (but highly unlikely) Freo Round 22 team;
Round 4, 5 players with 50+ club games;
B: Hamling(44), Pearce(46), Ryan(35)
HB: Conca(4), Wilson(25), Hughes(33)
C: Langdon(50), Cerra(25), B.Hill(36)
HF: Walters(133), Switkowski(3), Schultz(3)
F: Hogan(3), Taberner(69), Matera(20)
Fol: Lobb(4), Tucker(52), Mundy(298)
I/C: Brayshaw(21), McCarthy(40), Colyer(4), Duman(12)
Round 22, 16 players with 50+ club games;
B: Hamling(51), Pearce(63), Ryan(52)
HB: Tucker(69), Wilson(42), Hughes(50)
C: Langdon(67), Fyfe(173), B.Hill(53)
HF: Walters(150), Lobb(21), Mundy(315)
F: Hogan(20), Taberner(86), Ballantynes(175)
Fol: Sandilands(280), S.Hill(217), Blakely(60)
I/C: Cerra(42), Brayshaw(38), McCarthy(57), Colyer(21)
(With these players trying to get a game; Darcy, Cox, Conca, Logue, Bennell)
Did you see all three draws? I mean the only out of sorts one is our loss to Suns and the Brisbanes win over WC, Brisbane loss to Essendon and I hate to tell you this, but outside this Forum we still are the joke of the competition most clubs pencil us down for a Victory over us
Richmond had 13 players who have played 50+ games for the club on the weekend.
Freo had 5.
The average for all 18 teams for Round 4 was between 11 & 12.
Freo have had 5 in all four rounds so far in 2019, the lowest in every round.
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round 3 teams age brackets I believe , not sure all the youth excuses are all that valid looking at that ..... pretty much exactly the same as Richmond
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Except you have proven the youth excuses are right. Freo are pretty much the same as Richmond. The team that got beaten by GWS by 50 points in round 3. So if we get within 50 points of GWS, then we're on the right track?