Round 1 2012

[Footypie32]

And that he couldnt get a game at essendon either

Essendon has Hille, Ryder and Bellchambers. He wouldn't have got a game anytime soon. Even though I havent seen him play, I still cant believe Jenkins is that much better than Maric. Maybe his leg speed would make him more versatile though. Has to earn his spot in the SANFL for mine though.

 

[Lawrst]

Essendon has Hille, Ryder and Bellchambers.

Yea because Hille was in fantasic form last year.

Round 1 for jenkins to play he would need to dominate the Preseason cup.

 

[Footypie32]

Yea because Hille was in fantasic form last year.

Round 1 for jenkins to play he would need to dominate the Preseason cup.

Even if you rank Hille last out of those 3, he was still infront of Jenkins.

 

[PyroCrow]

Even if you rank Hille last out of those 3, he was still infront of Jenkins.

They are also getting Joe Daniher next year and you would think that he would be higher up in the ruck stocks than Jenkins would have been if he had stayed. I will wait to see how he goes before passing judgement but I doubt that he will be a walkup for the Round 1 team.

 

[Geoffa32]

Its got me baffled that Maric couldnt get a game at the AFC and now Jenkins is a walk up start for round 1.

How did Sam Jacobs fare at Carlton?

That 22 was more a guess at Sando's thinking.

Gunston leaving leaves a hole in the forward line. The obvious selection is Smack for that spot IMO.

But Jenkins is a more solid player and I reckon Sando likes this kind of player.

 

[PykeDream]

It probably works something like this

Carlton 2010/11:
Warnock > Kreuzer > Jacobs > Hampson

Adelaide 2010/11:
Maric > Griffin > Tippett? > Sellar

Essendon 2011/12:
Ryder > Hille > Bellchambers > Jenkins

Adelaide 2011:
Jacobs > Tippett? > Sellar > McKernan etc.

So it works out something like:
Jacobs > Tippett? > Jenkins > McKernan etc.

Which probably means Jenkins isn't really best 22, and shows our lack of ruck depth v Essendon and Carlton following the extensive trading/delisting that has occurred at the club in the past few years. Still its not too bad, until Jacobs is injured that is.

 

[Allefgib]

Still its not too bad, until Jacobs is injured that is.

hello top 5 draft pick!

 

[Footypie32]

hello top 5 draft pick!

Actually reckon worst case scenario this year is to finish 9th or 10th! Means we miss finals again or miss a low pick in a bumper draft!

 

[Allefgib]

even with jacobs out?

 

[Footypie32]

even with jacobs out?

No, Im not saying I think we'll finish 9th or 10th. If Jacobs goes down, we're ****ed! Im saying I dont want us to finish middle of the pack again! And no, I am not endorsing tanking.

 

[Allefgib]

Exactly....jacobs out = hello top 5 draft pick

 

[Vader]

Exactly....jacobs out = hello top 5 draft pick

That would depend on how early in the season he went down, how many teams qualify for a pre-1st round PP (Brisbane, GC & Port could all qualify) - and how many teams below us cash in their GC/GWS compo draft picks.

My guess is that finishing 14th (out of 18) would still see us without a top-10 draft pick this year.

 

[WAG]

I agree Vader. Isn't that part of the reason we went after Crouch this year, so we could secure a top 5 draft prospect from the 2012 crop?

 

[Allefgib]

Just a flippant comment for the, funny coz its possibly true lols, as a reflection of my thoughts on how important jacobs is to us... Not a desire to chase or realistically get such a pick.

 

[Hank93]

Port and GC could realisticly get PP before the first round, GWS have a compo pick from us and GC so they could use both of those next year.

Many other teams will also be granted compo picks for losing more players to GWS and via free agency.

Crouch is an excellent get considering the probability of us nabbing a top 5 pick. Tippett is really the only way we could get a top 5 pick (Barring us finishing bottom 4 again).

Anyone have an idea of which of our new draftees could feature in the round 1 team vs Gold Coast. Kerridge sounds the most likely by the reports I have read.

 

[Footypie32]

Port and GC could realisticly get PP before the first round, GWS have a compo pick from us and GC so they could use both of those next year.

Many other teams will also be granted compo picks for losing more players to GWS and via free agency.

Crouch is an excellent get considering the probability of us nabbing a top 5 pick. Tippett is really the only way we could get a top 5 pick (Barring us finishing bottom 4 again).

Anyone have an idea of which of our new draftees could feature in the round 1 team vs Gold Coast. Kerridge sounds the most likely by the reports I have read.

Would make an absolute mockery of the system if GC were awarded a PP! Priority picks are designed to help struggling clubs that have been down the bottom of the league for a few seasons.

On Kerridge, seems like the complete opposite to Crouch. Not sure how the club rates his overrall potential, but seems like they wanted to draft a bloke that could play right away. Even the way he speaks is like he's been in the league for years! Doesnt seem intimidated at all. Reckon he could play 10+ games this year barring injury.

 

[PykeDream]

Would make an absolute mockery of the system if GC were awarded a PP! Priority picks are designed to help struggling clubs that have been down the bottom of the league for a few seasons.

Technically GC, Port and Brisbane all obtained Priority Picks this year - though GWS' draft concessions meant that they all came after the First Round (in the late 20's). Pretty sure GC used theirs in the O'Meara deal. GWS almost a certainty to pick up two top five picks this year.

 

[Hank93]

Technically GC, Port and Brisbane all obtained Priority Picks this year - though GWS' draft concessions meant that they all came after the First Round (in the late 20's). Pretty sure GC used theirs in the O'Meara deal. GWS almost a certainty to pick up two top five picks this year.

But if Port, GC and Bris all finish 2012 with less than 4.5 wins, they will receive a PP before the first round, like Melbourne got with Scully and Trengove, and Carlton with Kreuzer.

The compo picks GWS received are all linked to the original clubs, so their 2nd pick will probably be outside the top 10.

 

[PykeDream]

So it's probably best to hope no one finishes with less than 4.5 wins (if that's even statistically possible) or multiple teams do. Would be a travesty if GWS secured picks one and two.

 

[Hank93]

So it's probably best to hope no one finishes with less than 4.5 wins (if that's even statistically possible) or multiple teams do. Would be a travesty if GWS secured picks one and two.

4 wins and a draw.

GWS can't get picks 1 and 2 as this would be their first year of sucking. Gold Coast technically have this possibility as they could finish last and also win less than 5 games.

 

[PykeDream]

4 wins and a draw.

GWS can't get picks 1 and 2 as this would be their first year of sucking. Gold Coast technically have this possibility as they could finish last and also win less than 5 games.

Ah, so they must finish with four and a half wins or less in two consecutive years. I misunderstood that, and I guess it was meant to be a safeguard against 'short-term' tanking. They probably should have altered it further with the arrival of GWS. So i guess as it stands, that GC could realistically obtain two top five picks in 2012 and GWS two in 2013.

For anyone confused as I was, this is a good resource.

The number 1 draft pick is currently awarded to the team that has earnt the rights to it through the drafting rules. Generally, the bottom-placed team will have the first selection, however when a team wins less than 4.5 wins in two consecutive seasons (the .5 being considered a draw), then it is awarded the number 1 pick of the second year, regardless of whether the team finished bottom of the ladder or not. This was the case in the 2007 AFL Season when Richmond finished on the bottom of the ladder but was awarded the second overall pick due to Carlton's two successive years with less than 4.5 wins. This number 1 pick was a "priority pick" and following this draft choice the order proceeded as normal, with Richmond having the second selection, and Carlton having their second selection at pick number 3 in the draft. The number 1 pick has also been traded before, as seen when Fremantle traded the number 1 overall pick of the 2001 AFL Draft to Hawthorn for Trent Croad.

 

[Hank93]

Ah, so they must finish with four and a half wins or less in two consecutive years. I misunderstood that, and I guess it was meant to be a safeguard against 'short-term' tanking. They probably should have altered it further with the arrival of GWS. So i guess as it stands, that GC could realistically obtain two top five picks in 2012 and GWS two in 2013.

For anyone confused as I was, this is a good resource.

Yep thats correct. If GC win less than 5 games next year (A very strong possibility), then it's safe to assume they'll have pick 1 or 2 as a PP, and then pick 4 or 5 as their first regular pick.

The amount of First round talent GC would have will be down right wrong if this scenario took place (Including O'Meara)

 

[Vader]

Actually, it's not "4.5 wins", as in 4 wins and a draw. The cutoff point is 16.5 premiership points, noting that they don't give out half points - it's 4 points for a win, 2 points for a draw.

Teams need to win 4 games, or the equivalent thereof in premiership points (eg 3 wins, 2 draws) or less in order to qualify for a PP. Any team which scores 4 wins + 1 draw would miss out on a PP.

As for GC's prospects.. I think they will avoid PP qualification this year, with their youngsters benefiting from having another 12 months of development under their belts. Port & Brisbane, I'm not so sure about - I think Port have a VERY good chance of claiming a pre-1st round PP.

 

[Hank93]

Actually, it's not "4.5 wins", as in 4 wins and a draw. The cutoff point is 16.5 premiership points, noting that they don't give out half points - it's 4 points for a win, 2 points for a draw.

Teams need to win 4 games, or the equivalent thereof in premiership points (eg 3 wins, 2 draws) or less in order to qualify for a PP. Any team which scores 4 wins + 1 draw would miss out on a PP.

As for GC's prospects.. I think they will avoid PP qualification this year, with their youngsters benefiting from having another 12 months of development under their belts. Port & Brisbane, I'm not so sure about - I think Port have a VERY good chance of claiming a pre-1st round PP.

Yeh I saw that on another thread. Thanks for correcting me

It's pretty hard to predict which of those three teams are most likely to get a pre first round PP, if any of them win 4 or less games.

Port fans would find it extremly hard to endure another woeful year, but the addition of possibly Whitfield and Grundy would boost their future enormously.

 

[WALL-e]

GC will roll some teams this year. Too much talent. GWS will steal 1 or 2, if that. Port......God knows, may depend on how long Primus lasts and the development of Lobbe. Brisbane.....have some good midfield talent coming through that will help. BEsides Leuey, Brown and (maybe) Merrett, their spine may hurt them.

Hard to tell pre-season, but I think all those teams bar GWS should get over 4.