Strategy Round 1, 2014

[Topkent]

Spencer despite not being the modern day type of mobile ruckman he should physically manhandle the Saints ruck division, Spencer becomes so important this week.

Also I know he was being redeployed in the midfield this year but should Watts spend a fair chunk of time up forward on Saturday night?

I think Paul roos wont give a flying **** where he has told everyone Watts will play and if he is needed forward then thats where he will play, I think 70% on ball and 30% forward is about right, depending if Gawn plays or not

If Gawn can park himself in the square and ruck a little Watts isnt needed forward but if Pedo has to help out Spencer in the ruck then I would think Watts should spend some time forward

 

[PureFooty]

On the topic of betting, this will be the 4th consecutive year we've gone into round 1 as favourites.
St Kilda $1.55 ???
Port Adelaide $1.83 80+ point loss
Brisbane $1.45 40+ point loss
Sydney $1.82 Draw

Don't pay attention to betting when tipping, especially in round 1, and especially when it involves Melbourne. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'd be fairly confident that backing the team representing value which early on in the season, is most likely the underdog, will provide you with a tidy profit. Just looking at this year, Freo at 1.70 was a gift against the Pies who were missing KPP and looked to be going backwards. The GWS Syd game offered no value (couldn't have possibly put your hard earned on the giants). The GC vs Rich match, was definitely more a 1.9/1.9 than 2.5/1.5. GC are proven winners against Rich and were always going to improve more coming into their 4th season, they've also got a decent record at home. The Carlton vs Port game was the same. You can make a fair bit of cash backing against Carlton, for some reason they are always shorter than they should be. $4 flag favourites 2 years ago, should I go any further? Port represented value for mine, due to their honesty, Carlton are an unknown, and have a terrible record at etihad.

Anyway, I won't go any further as the latter of this post i s more for the punting board, but it does respect the overall view, that odds rarely mean anything, especially early on when teams haven't given away much.

 

[Bluelegs]

On the topic of betting, this will be the 4th consecutive year we've gone into round 1 as favourites.
St Kilda $1.55 ???
Port Adelaide $1.83 80+ point loss
Brisbane $1.45 40+ point loss
Sydney $1.82 Draw

Don't pay attention to betting when tipping, especially in round 1, and especially when it involves Melbourne. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'd be fairly confident that backing the team representing value which early on in the season, is most likely the underdog, will provide you with a tidy profit. Just looking at this year, Freo at 1.70 was a gift against the Pies who were missing KPP and looked to be going backwards. The GWS Syd game offered no value (couldn't have possibly put your hard earned on the giants). The GC vs Rich match, was definitely more a 1.9/1.9 than 2.5/1.5. GC are proven winners against Rich and were always going to improve more coming into their 4th season, they've also got a decent record at home. The Carlton vs Port game was the same. You can make a fair bit of cash backing against Carlton, for some reason they are always shorter than they should be. $4 flag favourites 2 years ago, should I go any further? Port represented value for mine, due to their honesty, Carlton are an unknown, and have a terrible record at etihad.

Anyway, I won't go any further as the latter of this post i s more for the punting board, but it does respect the overall view, that odds rarely mean anything, especially early on when teams haven't given away much.

Port started as favourites last year

 

[Topkent]

On the topic of betting, this will be the 4th consecutive year we've gone into round 1 as favourites.
St Kilda $1.55 ???
Port Adelaide $1.83 80+ point loss
Brisbane $1.45 40+ point loss
Sydney $1.82 Draw

Don't pay attention to betting when tipping, especially in round 1, and especially when it involves Melbourne. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'd be fairly confident that backing the team representing value which early on in the season, is most likely the underdog, will provide you with a tidy profit. Just looking at this year, Freo at 1.70 was a gift against the Pies who were missing KPP and looked to be going backwards. The GWS Syd game offered no value (couldn't have possibly put your hard earned on the giants). The GC vs Rich match, was definitely more a 1.9/1.9 than 2.5/1.5. GC are proven winners against Rich and were always going to improve more coming into their 4th season, they've also got a decent record at home. The Carlton vs Port game was the same. You can make a fair bit of cash backing against Carlton, for some reason they are always shorter than they should be. $4 flag favourites 2 years ago, should I go any further? Port represented value for mine, due to their honesty, Carlton are an unknown, and have a terrible record at etihad.

Anyway, I won't go any further as the latter of this post i s more for the punting board, but it does respect the overall view, that odds rarely mean anything, especially early on when teams haven't given away much.

Speaking off odds for no reason I decided to have a multibet flutter on the remaining games

I have Geelong to beat Adelaide at Simonds
Hawthorn to beat Brisbane at It doesnt matter
West Coast to beat the Dogs at Subiaco

And

...... Melbourne to beat the Saints for the tempting odds of 2.89 for the 4 way Multi

I put 100 down, Its probably stupid on my part for giving Melbourne another chance to take my money for no returns but I think that bet hinges on the Melbourne result

 

[Bluelegs]

Honestly not that confident Geelong will beat Adelaide. Sounds ridiculous I know

 

[Topkent]

Honestly not that confident Geelong will beat Adelaide. Sounds ridiculous I know

I think Geelongs injuries have been way over exaggerated

Menzel hasnt player for 2 years, Vardy is a good young player but McIntosh and Hawkins being fit means they can cover it , Christensen is a C+ B- player at best and Motlop is a freak but he wont win games on their own

They are still a supremely strong team and they dont lose very often at the Cattery

 

[PureFooty]

Port started as favourites last year

Nope. We started favourites as of the first bounce.

 

[Demon 16]

Speaking off odds for no reason I decided to have a multibet flutter on the remaining games

I have Geelong to beat Adelaide at Simonds
Hawthorn to beat Brisbane at It doesnt matter
West Coast to beat the Dogs at Subiaco

And

...... Melbourne to beat the Saints for the tempting odds of 2.89 for the 4 way Multi

I put 100 down, Its probably stupid on my part for giving Melbourne another chance to take my money for no returns but I think that bet hinges on the Melbourne result

Th dogs are your danger game I reckon - otherwise looks like a pretty good bet.

 

[Dez!]

I think Paul roos wont give a flying **** where he has told everyone Watts will play and if he is needed forward then thats where he will play, I think 70% on ball and 30% forward is about right, depending if Gawn plays or not

I never mentioned Roos caring what he told people, my query was about does Roos backflip for a week and use Watts up forward because we're struggling for targets?

If Gawn can park himself in the square and ruck a little Watts isnt needed forward but if Pedo has to help out Spencer in the ruck then I would think Watts should spend some time forward

Gawn isn't playing, Roos already said this.

 

[Dez!]

I think Geelongs injuries have been way over exaggerated

Menzel hasnt player for 2 years, Vardy is a good young player but McIntosh and Hawkins being fit means they can cover it , Christensen is a C+ B- player at best and Motlop is a freak but he wont win games on their own

They are still a supremely strong team and they dont lose very often at the Cattery

You're underrating Christensen quite heavily and Motlop has already shown he can turn a game on it's head.

 

[Topkent]

I never mentioned Roos caring what he told people, my query was about does Roos backflip for a week and use Watts up forward because we're struggling for targets?



Gawn isn't playing, Roos already said this.

I never said you did I pointed out that Just cause Roos said he would play in the midfield I dont expect him to stubbornly stick to his guns and play him in the Middle

Well I must have missed the Roos Quote where he ruled him out completely so Yes I do think Watts will spend time forward.

 

[Topkent]

You're underrating Christensen quite heavily and Motlop has already shown he can turn a game on it's head.

Christensen and Motlop are not the difference between Geelong winning and losing

 

[Dez!]

Christensen and Motlop are not the difference between Geelong winning and losing

Motlop is a match winner.

 

[Topkent]

Motlop is a match winner.

So are aboout 15 other Geelong blokes

 

[Topkent]

Th dogs are your danger game I reckon - otherwise looks like a pretty good bet.

In Melbourne id consider backing them on what would be good odds but fingers cross the eagles get the chocolates

 

[Bluelegs]

Fisher, Schneider both out.

I'd say the stars are aligning against the Saints but lets be honest this is what happens when you overly rely on older players, their bodies start to crumble and your kids aren't developed enough to step up. Happened to us in 07-09.

 

[Bluelegs]

Nope. We started favourites as of the first bounce.

Wrong. Unless there were multiple odds from bookies. i remember we were favs about a week out and it got progressively in Ports favour until it was about 2.10 - 1.80 their way.

 

[Demon 16]

I never mentioned Roos caring what he told people, my query was about does Roos backflip for a week and use Watts up forward because we're struggling for targets?

It would be tempting, but yeh although he won't be too proud to change direction/strategy as and when needed, I'd be pretty surprised if he played Watts as a genuine tall forward.

Nothing to do with what he's told the media and public, but more because he's told Watts that he's going to give him a proper run in the midfield.

It couldn't be good for poor Wattsy to do the whole preseason as a mid/wing, then get shoved around to plug holes as soon as the season starts.

I'll be shocked if Watts does anything more than drift forward occasionally during general play.

 

[steve0908]

Alright. Season about to begin and no time to waste. Here is the line-up we could have given our outs.

Terlich Frawley Georgiou
Grimes McDonald Toumpas
Trengrove Jones Tyson
Blease Pederson Watts
Howe Fitzpatrick Kennedy-Harris
Jamar Cross Vince
Viney McKenzie Michie Tapscott

 

[melbournemartin]

Alright. Season about to begin and no time to waste. Here is the line-up we could have given our outs.

Terlich Frawley Georgiou
Grimes McDonald Toumpas
Trengrove Jones Tyson
Blease Pederson Watts
Howe Fitzpatrick Kennedy-Harris
Jamar Cross Vince
Viney McKenzie Michie Tapscott

I decided to go through and bold what I really liked and it turns out I don't mind this team. It's not perfect, and the forward line overall will struggle to kick goals, but it's still going to be competitive against weaker sides.

 

[Bluelegs]

I forgot Jamar even existed. I don't think I've heard anyone at the club talk about him in months.

 

[dee_mac]

Jamar is listed as 2 to 3 weeks away I think. I fully expect Dunn to be in that side, possibly at the expense of McKenzie as I dont think we need to place a hard tag anywhere this week. Tapscott would be lucky to get a game at this point. Otherwise I reckon you're pretty spot on

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[Praetorian]

It would be tempting, but yeh although he won't be too proud to change direction/strategy as and when needed, I'd be pretty surprised if he played Watts as a genuine tall forward.

Nothing to do with what he's told the media and public, but more because he's told Watts that he's going to give him a proper run in the midfield.

It couldn't be good for poor Wattsy to do the whole preseason as a mid/wing, then get shoved around to plug holes as soon as the season starts.

I'll be shocked if Watts does anything more than drift forward occasionally during general play.

That's exactly right, I think Roos sees watts as a player that doesn't need to be part of the forward line to kick goals. Ideally he will be an attacking winger who can push forward and really stretch the defence.

 

[Headless]

Jamar is listed as 2 to 3 weeks away I think. I fully expect Dunn to be in that side, possibly at the expense of McKenzie as I dont think we need to place a hard tag anywhere this week. Tapscott would be lucky to get a game at this point. Otherwise I reckon you're pretty spot on

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I would be more than happy to put a hard tag on Armitage.

 

[Tulip]

I would be more than happy to put a hard tag on Armitage.

Same as, don't see why Dunn would be the man to wake way though.