Preview Round 1, 2019: St.Kilda v Gold Coast - Marvel Stadium, Sunday 24th March, 1:10PM AEDT *Parker, Wilkie & Kent Debut*

Who Wins?

  • Saints

    Votes: 74 83.1%
  • Suns

    Votes: 15 16.9%

  • Total voters
    89
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GC2015

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Thread starter #1
Hey guys. Round 1 is exactly four weeks away and I figured now was a great time to start a thread. I hope you are all getting as excited as I am for the start of the season!

I think our two teams will match up well against each other in this one and I'm sure both teams will have that fourth quarter comeback/collapse from last year front of mind during the game. I must admit I'm a little nervous about Hanners potentially dominating in the middle (great acquisition for you guys) and our younger midfielders struggling to stop him. It's a bit of a shame we won't get to see a King v King match up but no doubt we'll see that play out in the future.

What do you guys think about the match up?
_________________________________________________



Previous Meetings:
Round 13, 2018 - Gold Coast (11.12.78) lost to St.Kilda (11.14.80)
Round 14, 2017 - St.Kilda (14.19.103) defeated Gold Coast (10.12.72)
Round 15, 2016 - Gold Coast (15.18.108) defeated St.Kilda (8.20.68)
______________________________________________________________


Preview (Thanks to lewdogs)
St.Kilda v Gold Coast






St.Kilda are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2018 season and they've begun the march back in promising style, with two impressive victories against North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs in the JLT Community Series.

For the Suns, they leave the pre-season campaign with a win and a loss, beating the Bulldogs by 5 points but then falling to Sydney the week after by 42.


Let’s have a look at possible best 22s:

St.Kilda Best 22
B:
Jarryn Geary, Darragh Joyce, Shane Savage
HB: Josh Battle, Callum Wilkie, Jimmy Webster
C: Jack Billings, Jack Steven, Jade Gresham
HF: Matthew Parker, Tim Membrey, Ben Long
F: Dean Kent, Josh Bruce, Jack Lonie
Foll: Lewis Pierce, Jack Steven, Sebastian Ross
I/C: Nick Hind, Luke Dunstan, Hunter Clark, Jack Newnes

Gold Coast Best 22
B:
Charlie Ballard, Sam Collins, Jarrod Harbrow
HB: Pearce Hanley, Jack Hombsch, Jordan Murdoch
C: Brayden Fiorini, David Swallow, Jack Martin
HF: Jack Lukosius, Peter Wright, Alex Sexton
F: Darcy Macpherson, Chris Burgess, Ben Ainsworth
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Touk Miller, Anthony Miles
I/C: Jack Bowes, Lachie Weller, George Horlin-Smith, Callum Ah Chee



Medical Room




For the Saints, defender Dylan Roberton will sit out the entire season due to heart complications. Paddy McCartin spent last Sunday night in hospital and remains in doubt for round one. Steven is back training, so he seems likely to return early in the season. Blake Acres (back) and Daniel McKenzie (heel) both lined up for Sandringham last Sunday while Pierce has recovered from concussion.

As for the Suns, the problems haven't taken long to mount with bad news on Izak Rankine and Aaron Young early in the week. Corey Ellis and Josh Corbett are both chances to be available for round one but neither has played a match during the pre-season and would likely kick off their campaigns in a NEAFL practice match.





Preview




A promising pre-season. New coaches, new players, new energy and enthusiasm, and wins on the board in the JLT. Not too long ago, things were looking up as a Saints fan, or there were at least reasons to be optimistic going into the 2019 season.

Unfortunately, a series of injuries to key players has seen our seemingly sweet off-season turn suddenly sour. Jake Carlisle, a key linchpin of the defence, gone for a long time with a back injury. Jack Steven, our best midfielder, taking some time off for his mental health. The prized recruit Dan Hannebery suffering from hamstring awareness (the words akin to nails down the blackboard for Saints fans). Then Dylan Roberton’s heart plays up again and he’s gone for the season, and Paddy McCartin suffers another concussion. It has been a series of whacks to our side that will present many challenges early on in 2019. On top of these big injuries, the likes of Blake Acres and Dan McKenzie, two good players that we’d love to be able to turn to right now, are also suffering from niggles.

The big question facing the Saints right now is how can we respond to this sudden adversity. Alan Richardson and his team will certainly have a challenge on their hands to ensure the players are motivated going into round 1, with the belief they can win regularly this season and rebuild from a horror 2018. It is a comfort to know that we have the likes of Brett Ratten, Brendan Lade and Billy Slater at the club now, people that have come from cultures of success and with enormous amounts of experience.

Our first match for season 2019 will be against the Gold Coast Suns, a team that many fancy for the wooden spoon this year (at least until our recent bad luck struck). I must preface this by saying I don’t know a lot about the Suns team and haven’t seen a lot of them over the past two seasons, so apologies for any erors.

The Suns will be playing a number of new players, with first-gamers and new players to the club. Izak Rankine, the number 2 draft pick from 2018, looked a certainty to play but a recent hamstring injury has delayed the start to his AFL career. Pick 3 Jack Lukosius will likely line up. ‘Brother of Max’ aka Ben King may start his career in the 2s.

The Suns are a team lacking in star-power, especially following the departure of their two most notable players in Tom Lynch and Stephen May. However, they are capable of playing some good football, and they were all over the Saints in our 2018 match at Metricon before a ridiculous last-quarter comeback (many call it the coming-of-DMac) sealed by a last minute Gresham goal gave the Saints the 4 points. They won 3 out of their first 5 last year and know how to start the season well, and they also had a good win against Sydney in round 18.

The issue facing the Suns is somewhat similar to the Saints. Going into 2019, they have no players rates as ‘elite’ and only two players rated ‘above average’, Nick Holman and Lachie Weller (Holman will likely miss this match with injury). They had no players average above 90 in Supercoach in 2018, their best performed players were Witts (88.6), Miller (88.9) and Swallow (89.9). Conversely, St Kilda’s best three were Ross (102.9), Steele (94.4) and Steven (94.6).

The Suns will have a solid team of relatively unknown players coming into the 2019 season wanting to prove the doubters wrong, so they will present a tricky opponent. Players such as Fiorini, Jack Martin and new recruit Anthony Miles (previously from Richmond) will be out to prove they belong at AFL level. The Suns have a number of good running half-backs in Hanley and Harbrow, and one of the keys to winning will be limiting these players’ run.



Potential changes



I have assumed that Jack Steven is out but obviously he slots in there immediately if available. I have gone with Marshall as first ruck, but we may see him pushed forward with Lewis Pierce to take ruck duties. Personally, I prefer a more mobile forward line and feel this could be a point of difference for us, with the likes of Long, Parker, Lonie and Kent looking dangerous this off-season.

Logan Austin must be a good chance of a run, but I’m reading between the lines from the JLT sides and suspect that Cal Wilkie may be ahead of him. Wilkie seems like an interesting player and could be a good replacement for Roberton – good mark, nice height, he even pinch-hit in the ruck in our first match. I think he could be a keeper.



Key Match-Ups



The backline
The losses of Roberton and Carlisle are enormous. I was impressed by the performance of our backline throughout the JLT series, we seemed more organised. The big question is, how much of this was down to the return of Roberton? Darragh Joyce looks like he’s really come on over the pre-season and may be a leader in the back line this year. He seems to have good poise and vision and competes very hard. Alongside Joyce it will be interesting to see how young Josh Battle goes in the backline, a marking forward that we’re trying to turn into an intercepting/distributing backman a la Sicily for the Hawks. I’ve liked what I’ve seen there. Essentially, our backline looks very poor on paper going into round 1, but I’m hopeful from what I’ve seen that we can still perform well in this area.

Young midfield needs to stand up
We go into this match missing Steven and Hannebery, arguably our best two midfielders. Thankfully, the Gold Coast aren’t much chop in that area themselves – they are a young midfield on paper with workmanlike players such as Touk Miller and David Swallow. Our young mids, led by Jack Steele and Seb Ross, will need to get their hands dirty and work hard here. Billings and Gresham, if transitioning into midfield roles, will also be important players in this match. Jarrod Witts is an accomplished ruckman, so young Rowan Marshall will have to play well. I have a lot of faith in Marshall – he is a hardworking player who seems determined to succeed. If he can develop the rucking side of his game, I think he presents an exciting ruck prospect going forward.

Matthew Parker
Ok, I admit I’m his player advocate, and as someone working in a remote Aboriginal Community in WA I have followed young Parker keenly since he signed for the Saints. I happened to get down to training over the summer and he really caught my eye, just looked so quick with an enormous kick to match. He has been exciting to watch so far in the JLT matches, his pressure and feistiness are infectious and he took an absolute hanger against the Dogs. I’m really hoping for a debut here, and would love to see Matthew kick a goal or two in his first run-out for the club. Think he has an exciting career ahead.

Josh Bruce
Bruce has been a bit of a forgotten figure at the Saints. He had some form issues in 2017, so perhaps his loss to injury in 2018 wasn’t noticed as much. However, between 2015-2017 Josh Bruce has been our best goal kicker, he is a very good forward who competes in the air and knows where the sticks are (well, usually, apart from the odd brainfart). I think he will be a huge inclusion this year and really look forward to having him back in the side.

Jack Billings
Billings has looked great this pre-season. He seems to have a more defined role, moving around the ground, getting involved in play where he can. There is a feeling that some fresh coaching ideas may have done wonders for him. I’m really bullish on what he can do in 2019 and look forward to him getting off to a strong start in this game.


Tip




This game has really turned into a huge moment for our club. Injuries to key players hurt on the eve of the season. On top of that, we are already under the microscope following a deplorable 2018 campaign. How we respond here may well set the tone for the 2019 season. I still feel that we will put out a side strong enough to comfortably handle the Suns. The question-marks for me are whether the players can come out in the right headspace to win the match, and whether the game-plan we have developed over the summer can stand up to the loss of key players.

I must admit, I’m glad that the game will be played at our home ground. This should give the Saints players the confidence they need to run out on Sunday feeling motivated and confident in the systems we have put in place. Adversity brings challenges, but these types of challenges can further strengthen our group if we can rise to them.

Simon Lethlean made the bold statement a few weeks ago that we are the ‘fittest team in the comp’. In terms of injuries this is clearly not the case, but if the 22 that we put out on Sunday can outrun the Suns then we will win. There have been signs that our fitness is better this year – we have run out our two JLT games well.

With all these factors in mind, I’m backing the Saints to play a good brand of football, and to run over the Suns after a tight first half. It will be a stirring victory.


Saints by 38 points.

Thoughts?
 

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GC2015

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Parker debut surely.

Hasn't put a foot wrong all pre-season and deserves a crack. Hopefully gives a rocket to the existing bunch so that they don't keep coasting along.
How many debutants do you think the Saints are looking at playing in this one? I'd say we're probably looking at playing around 4-5. Lukosius, Rankine and possibly King will all play as well as 1-2 mature agers.
 

gcsunsfc

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#5
I think this game will be pretty close to be honest.
Odds are heavily in favour of St Kilda though - $1.22 favourites

Last game late 2018 was the amazing comeback from St Kilda with Jade Gresham kicking the go ahead, game winning goal snapping from deep in the right forward pocket.
St Kilda 80 - GC 78
St Kilda with 360 disposals to 295 - only 3 suns getting the ball 20 times
- St Kilda tall forwards played well: Battle 3, McCartin 2, Membrey 2, Steven and Ross had 22 clearances between them.
- Lynch and Sexton 3 goals each


2017: St Kilda 103 - GC 72
- Riewoldt kicked 3, Billings 30 possessions 1 goal
- Lynch goalless, Lyons and Fiorini in his 9th career game both 26 possessions and a goal

Would have St Kilda the favourite but I think the game will be within 3 goals either way.
 

Murraj1966

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#6
How many debutants do you think the Saints are looking at playing in this one? I'd say we're probably looking at playing around 4-5. Lukosius, Rankine and possibly King will all play as well as 1-2 mature agers.
Hey I wanted the audition to happen once he's settled in and played a few games first ;)
 

lewdogs

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#7
I think this game will be pretty close to be honest.
Odds are heavily in favour of St Kilda though - $1.22 favourites

Last game late 2018 was the amazing comeback from St Kilda with Jade Gresham kicking the go ahead, game winning goal snapping from deep in the right forward pocket.
St Kilda 80 - GC 78
St Kilda with 360 disposals to 295 - only 3 suns getting the ball 20 times
- St Kilda tall forwards played well: Battle 3, McCartin 2, Membrey 2, Steven and Ross had 22 clearances between them.
- Lynch and Sexton 3 goals each


2017: St Kilda 103 - GC 72
- Riewoldt kicked 3, Billings 30 possessions 1 goal
- Lynch goalless, Lyons and Fiorini in his 9th career game both 26 possessions and a goal

Would have St Kilda the favourite but I think the game will be within 3 goals either way.
With the number of young players you'll have in your side, the game being at our home ground and coming off a very disappointing season, I think we would be very disappointed with a 3 goal margin. I think we'd be aiming for a 6-goal plus win.
 

gcsunsfc

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#8
With the number of young players you'll have in your side, the game being at our home ground and coming off a very disappointing season, I think we would be very disappointed with a 3 goal margin. I think we'd be aiming for a 6-goal plus win.
Really!
Maybe I'm underestimating St Kilda as much as I'm apparently overestimating GC
Don't think our team will really be that much younger than yours - although have gone with the more experienced player in a few 50/50s here (i.e. GHS over Brodie, Young over Lukosius)

Harbrow Thompson Hanley
Weller Hombsch Murdoch
Fiorini Miles Bowes
Ainsworth Day Martin
Rankine Wright Young

Witts Swallow Miller

Ah Chee Sexton Burgess GHS

2 debutants: Burgess and Rankine
1 player under 21: Rankine
Average age: 24.7 years, average games 77

If I went with the team that I would like to see I'd go a bit younger by exchanging Brodie for GHS and Ballard for Young
- Average age 24.2, average games 72

Not going to speculate on your team but the Saints team that played GC at metricon last year had an average age of 24.3 years and games 76 so pretty similar. Sounds like you'll have at least one debutant but also got more experienced with Hannebury recruited.
 

St Pauls

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#9
Looking at the GC team I think that Austin will probably get the nod over Joyce even though I have been super impressed by the Irishman. If Carlisle doesn’t get up, I think the extra height of Austin will help to tackle 2M Peter.

Pierce also might be favoured against a very strong Witts.
 
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#10
Hey guys. Round 1 is exactly four weeks away and I figured now was a great time to start a thread. I hope you are all getting as excited as I am for the start of the season!

I think our two teams will match up well against each other in this one and I'm sure both teams will have that fourth quarter comeback/collapse from last year front of mind during the game. I must admit I'm a little nervous about Hanners potentially dominating in the middle (great acquisition for you guys) and our younger midfielders struggling to stop him. It's a bit of a shame we won't get to see a King v King match up but no doubt we'll see that play out in the future.

What do you guys think about the match up?
I was lucky enough to be at Metricon for our come from behind win last year, hopefully it's not going to be so close round 1 because I don't think my heart can take a close finish so early in the season.
Going off intra club match yesterday and unavailability I would see our Rd 1 team as..

Geary Austin Battle
Webster Roberton Savage
Newnes. Dunstan Clark
Billings. McCartin. Kent
Gresham. Bruce. Membrey

Pierce. Ross. Steven
Parker. Steele Hannerberry. McKenzie
 

gcsunsfc

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#11
I was lucky enough to be at Metricon for our come from behind win last year, hopefully it's not going to be so close round 1 because I don't think my heart can take a close finish so early in the season.
Going off intra club match yesterday and unavailability I would see our Rd 1 team as..

Geary Austin Battle
Webster Roberton Savage
Newnes. Dunstan Clark
Billings. McCartin. Kent
Gresham. Bruce. Membrey

Pierce. Ross. Steven
Parker. Steele Hannerberry. McKenzie
I watched a few snippets of the practice match and heard Ben Mcglynn ?I think say that Hyannebury will be bought along slowly and didn't seem to be a certainty for round 1 - injured?
 

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#12
I watched a few snippets of the practice match and heard Ben Mcglynn ?I think say that Hyannebury will be bought along slowly and didn't seem to be a certainty for round 1 - injured?
Wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see him till round 2-3 but I think unlike last season we have more depth so I'm comfortable with not rushing him.
We have a few handy blokes fit and able eg...Acres , Sinclair , Armitage, Hind , Phillips.

I'm looking forward to Rankine making his debut.
Not looking forward to watching Harbrow , Weller , Hanley , Martin running off half back , they smashed us last game.
Hopefully Parker and Kent stop the clean run . Exciting stuff 👍
 

gcsunsfc

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#13
Going off that St Kilda team above experience levels will be pretty similar compared with the GC team I posted above
- same average age 24.7
- St Kilda with marginally more games 82 vs. 77 average
- GC 2 debutant, St Kilda 1
- Players <21 years: GC 1, St Kilda 2
- Players <25 games: St Kilda 5, GC 2


Don't think you can pencil in a win based on us playing kids.
Best of luck for the rest of the pre-season for no injuries.
See you round 1.
 

Choppers

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#14
I was lucky enough to be at Metricon for our come from behind win last year, hopefully it's not going to be so close round 1 because I don't think my heart can take a close finish so early in the season.
Going off intra club match yesterday and unavailability I would see our Rd 1 team as..

Geary Austin Battle
Webster Roberton Savage
Newnes. Dunstan Clark
Billings. McCartin. Kent
Gresham. Bruce. Membrey

Pierce. Ross. Steven
Parker. Steele Hannerberry. McKenzie


Solid looking squad. I know we're still a way to go to kick off but I've thrown this side together. Who wins?

Geary Austin Battle
Ainsworth Wright Rankine

Webster Roberton Savage
Martin Day Sexton

Newnes Dunstan Clark
Weller Miles Ah Chee

Billings McCartin Kent
Hanley Collins Bowes

Gresham Bruce Membrey
Harbrow Thompson Hombsch

Pierce Ross Steven
Witts Swallow Miller

Parker Steele Hannebery McKenzie
Fiorini Murdoch Brodie Burgess
 
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#15
Solid looking squad. I know we're still a way to go to kick off but I've thrown this side together. Who wins?

Geary Austin Battle
Ainsworth Wright Rankine

Webster Roberton Savage
Martin Day Sexton

Newnes Dunstan Clark
Weller Miles Ah Chee

Billings McCartin Kent
Hanley Collins Bowes

Gresham Bruce Membrey
Harbrow Thompson Hombsch

Pierce Ross Steven
Witts Swallow Miller

Parker Steele Hannebery McKenzie
Fiorini Murdoch Brodie Burgess
The game will be won on who supplies the forward line often and with class.
Witt's , Fiorini, Swallow, Miller , Miles , Brodie , AhChee, Weller , Martin
Vs
Pierce , Ross , Steven Dunstan, Hannerberry, Newnes, Clark , Billings, Gresham, Steele

I'm Biased , we win by 18pts , however no room for error in this game.
Gold Coast ( Metricon game )really impressed me for 3 quarters with their ball use and excellent transition from defence.
Lots to like from Gold Coast rebuild.
 
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#18
Miles is a good in for the Suns, he can get massive numbers of clearances and contested possessions on the right day, maybe a good match up for Steele.

Tall backs are a weakness for the Saints if neither Carlisle nor Brown are available. Roberton is more suited to a rebounding role. I don't think Austin is a great option as a full back, he'd let a few past IMO. Battle hasn't yet played as a back, but possibly this is a good game to try him, Clavarino is injured.
Irishman Joyce ( 1 game ) is a possibility. I don't mind the idea of our tall utility Marshall playing on Peter Wright, purely to try to match his height, but i'm not sure he's trained with the backs during the pre-season.
 
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#19
Miles is a good in for the Suns, he can get massive numbers of clearances and contested possessions on the right day, maybe a good match up for Steele.

Tall backs are a weakness for the Saints if neither Carlisle nor Brown are available. Roberton is more suited to a rebounding role. I don't think Austin is a great option as a full back, he'd let a few past IMO. Battle hasn't yet played as a back, but possibly this is a good game to try him, Clavarino is injured.
Irishman Joyce ( 1 game ) is a possibility. I don't mind the idea of our tall utility Marshall playing on Peter Wright, purely to try to match his height, but i'm not sure he's trained with the backs during the pre-season.
yep. Marshall to Wright. I like that.
Joyce looked fantastic. Have him take out lukosious and then let battle and roberton chop off everything then give it to savage for a 60m punt to Bruce -- goal. In any event we cannot lose this game. or we cooked for the year and become laughing stock of afl.
 

TheEnsign

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#20
Although I think we'll end up blooding some players / playing young players due to needs not choice - particularly in the backline - I can't see this one being all that close tbh.

I get the GC has some points to prove of its' own, but for Richo this is a must-win game; if we can't knock GC off at home the usual media flogs will go ape for weeks about it won't be a case of jungle drums beating - Richo will be a dead man walking.

Also full credit the GC posters in here keeping it very respectful.
 
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#23
Cant wait to see our future CHB Ben King play. Hope you Gold Coast nufties are looking after him. We want him back here in great condition for 2021 season. Or at least ok condition. Dont expect much obviously but try not to ruin him.
SEN touched on this today , not sure who he was ( returned to car half way discussion) but he said GC already know B King is StKilda bound , Do Saints make a play for him season's end ?
 

gcsunsfc

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#24
I wonder how GC is going to cover Bruce, Membrey, McCartin , Parker , they love having run and carry from half back and they might have to lock down more than usual.
Not too sure
Thompson, hombsch both pretty defensive bigs.
Joyce pretty defensive small.
Harbrow,Hanley, Weller providing the run.

We don’t have a standout 3rd defensive tall to play on membrey is my main concern.

Charlie Ballard has shown a lot of promise as an intercepter, but he is only a 10 gamer and couldn’t match membrey on the lead.
Newcomer Burgess may play back
We may play 3 talls with collins, hombsch and Thompson (the quickest) playing on membrey.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Saintbloke

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#25
Looked at the intra club game the other day, and I was interested to see if the less experienced and recruits were really putting their hands up. A few fellas seemed to have that extra little bit of determination. I though Marshall played with a lot of confidence as did Pierce and Clark. Parker looked mighty good running through the midfield- could almost be used in an Acres role. Kent is a walk up for sure. I think we may get a lot more on the scoreboard this season if injuries don't get in the way.. Roberton will make a big contribution down back, and Battle could be a good find down back. I had a micro warm and fuzzy feeling
 
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