Prediction ROUND 1 2020 - Pick your best team

[AFC979810]

The reason why we keep having this rebound after a new coach comes in is precisely the same reason we never become more than mediocre over time.

We fire the old coach and hire a new one with the assumption our squad is good enough, but actually we just haven't had the right coach. So the new coach refreshes the game plan but proceeds to play the oldest and most experienced team possible with no eye for developing talent.

The result is we look good to begin with, then fall away hard when our lack of improvement through the squad is exposed.

If you look back at each year immediately after we hired a coach, we rolled out in round 1 with our most experienced team possible, prioritizing older players over talented juniors.

I get the Ricky Bobby mentality I really do. To sound like Gary Ayres - "at the end of the day" its all about premierships.

But - each situation is different.

What we did at the end of 2014 was perfect. With Fagan and Walsh in charge they nailed their list analysis. Everything was built around the premiership window starting in 2017. We didn't have the massive ladder jump like we did in 2005 and 2012 and we only won 2 more games in 2015 than in 2014. It was a steady build from 11 wins in 2014 to 13 wins in 2015 to 16 wins in 2016 to the minor premiership in 2017. This culminated in us making a grand final in 2017 (right when our window was supposed to be open). Reflecting over the past 5 years I can understand why our club (wrongly) pushed so hard with the camp in 2018 and all the mental bullshit to try and grab a flag. Even the 2019 season I understood - we were sitting 3rd on the ladder after 8 rounds - you gotta push for that top 4 spot. Then things fell apart and we realized our foundation laid was crumbling and our window was shot. The playing group was fractured and players wanted out in droves.

So that lands us here in 2020. We have an unhappy playing group. Over 1/3 of the Grand Final team is gone and we have missed the finals for the past 2 years.
What is the definition of the best team? For me - the definition of the best team for round 1 is the team that has the best chance to win week 1. I really think that Nicks was not brought in because he was the best "coach" but because he was the best person to start rebuilding the culture at the AFC (alongside the soon to be appointed head of culture -whatever the F*** that is). Nicks has already changed the leadership group removing Talia and Walker and replacing them with player favorites Lynch and Smith. Its all about making the AFC a more fun place to be and using this year to rebuild the culture and assess the list.

I have a feeling that our next window will be 2024 and Nicks will only last 2-3 years to oversee the changing of the guard (retirements of Tex, Talia, Gibbs, Sloane, Mackay and Lynch) and build a positive culture. Think we will see a fast, fun, risky style of footy this year.

Start the season off with an experienced best 22. The side I selected had 7 players with under 33 games experience.

 

[Crows I Am]

Your club's starting midfield unit and depth

How is your club’s midfield unit shaping up heading into the 2020 season?

www.sen.com.au

I'm not sure who wrote this rubbish, but they couldn't find a spot for Chayce Jones, McHenry, Seed or SMith in the "Next in" section for our mids? They've got Polholke though!

Probably written by Kane Cornes, he picked Poholke as the next most likely player from the Crows to have a breakout season...

 

[crows dude]

Probably written by Kane Cornes, he picked Poholke as the next most likely player from the Crows to have a breakout season...

As well as Mackay, Gibbs and Atkins as next in line. Ummm. They are our outsiders so not next in line for a centre square spot. Put in JOnes, Poholke, McHenry, Gallucci, Knight, Crocker , Keays and even Wilson as inside mids f=before those three.

 

[1970crow]

As well as Mackay, Gibbs and Atkins as next in line. Ummm. They are our outsiders so not next in line for a centre square spot. Put in JOnes, Poholke, McHenry, Gallucci, Knight, Crocker , Keays and even Wilson as inside mids f=before those three.

I quite like Rat at stoppages. Not as contested possession winner, but he’s played some good footy around the stoppage. Reckon you can add Smith too, he’s great around the stoppage and I saw a photo with him training under ROB.

 

[crows dude]

I quite like Rat at stoppages. Not as contested possession winner, but he’s played some good footy around the stoppage. Reckon you can add Smith too, he’s great around the stoppage and I saw a photo with him training under ROB.

I hope Smith plays in the centre a lot this year

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Seems to be a lot more unknowns about our likely line up this year compared to other seasons

 

[crows dude]

Seems to be a lot more unknowns about our likely line up this year compared to other seasons

AFL
Jones
Crouch
Crouch
Gallucci
Kelly
Sloane (C)
Poholke
Seedsman
Talia
Walker
Brown
Stengle
Atkins
McHenry
Lynch
Laird
Milera
Fogarty
Smith
Himmelberg
Doedee
O'Brien

F Stengle Himmelberg Fogarty
HF Sloane Walker McHenry
C Seedsman Jones Gallucci
HB Milera Talia Laird
B Brown Doedee Kelly
Ruck O'Brien Smith M or B Crouch
Inter - M or B Crouch, Poholke, Atkins, Lynch


SANFL
Wright (C)
Mackay
Knight
Hartiigan
Murphy
Hamill
Gibbs
Crocker
Frampton
Mcadam
Worrell
Schoenberg
Keays
Wilson
Mcasey
Mcpherson
O'Connor
Sholl
Davis
Butts
Gollant
Strachan

F Keays Frampton Mcadam
HF Wright Macasey Knight
C Mackay Hamill MacPherson
HB Gibbs Hartigan Murphy
B Sholl Butts Davis
Ruck Strachan Crocker Wilson
Inter Worrell, Schoenberg, Oconnor, Gollant

 

[Deaneus!]

Seems to be a lot more unknowns about our likely line up this year compared to other seasons

I don't know about that.

 

[Mego Red]

F: Stengle - Fogarty - McAdam
HF: Lynch - Walker - McHenry
C: Smith - M Crouch - Milera
HB: Laird - Hartigan - Gibbs
B: Brown - Talia - Doedee

R: O’Brien - B Crouch - Jones
Int: Kelly, Sloane, Seedsman, Gallucci

Emg: Sholl, Frampton, Atkins

I'm rolling with a side without a clear 2nd ruck.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'm rolling with a side without a clear 2nd ruck.

It would be a better way for us to do things. We compromise our forward structure too much to squeeze one in.

Better for ROB to ruck 100% and then rest from a game completely every 6-7 weeks

 

[Betts are off]

Bit of a twist on the concept. I thought i'd pick my best "All Speed" Team. Replacing talent with speed and line breaking ability as the main parameters.

Smith Hartigan Hamill
Kelly Doedee McPherson
Seedsman Jones Kaeys
McHenry Lynch Gallucci
McAdam Himmelberg Stengle
ROB Milera B.Crouch

Davis, Crocker, Sloane, Knight

Note: FF was hard, not sure who'se the fastest out of Berg, Billy or FOG. Seem to remember Berg being ok top end. Also, no idea where the new batch ranks. But none of them jumped off the page in turns of game changing speed. Could be wrong there, will find out soon!

 

[cleanhands]

Stengle Frampton Fog
Keays Walker McHenry
Smith BCrouch Sloane
Gibbs Doedee Milera
Brown Talia Kelly

OB Mcrouch Jones
Int Lynch Crocker Sholl Seedsman
For the first 4 games make some assessments on players where they are at and then look to make changes

 

[Big Dub]

It would be a better way for us to do things. We compromise our forward structure too much to squeeze one in.

Better for ROB to ruck 100% and then rest from a game completely every 6-7 weeks

We would get flogged out of the centre at the end of each quarter and likely for the last half of the last quarter (or lightly beaten all game at ruck contests if ROB conserves energy during the game).

If we are that worried about four "talls" (inc Lynch) in the forward 50, how about moving Lynch to the wing, maybe something like:

F: Stengle - Fogarty - Himmelberg
HF: McAdam - Walker - McHenry
C: Seedsman - M Crouch - Lynch
HB: Laird - Hartigan - Smith
B: Brown - Talia - Doedee

R: O’Brien - B Crouch - Jones
Int: Kelly, Sloane, Milera, 1 of Gibbs/ Gallucci/ Murphy

Having good kicks like Lynch, Seedsman, Smith, Milera and Walker delivering effectively into the f50 with less f***ing around than last year should also reduce the need for forward pressure

 

[Murray2503]

Team after internal match sim:
Brown Talia Doedee(If fit)
Laird McAsey Gibbs/Sholl
Sloane BCrouch Jones
Walker Fogarty Milera
McAdam/Stengle Himmelberg Mchenry

ROB MCrouch Smith

Seedsman Keays Gallucci Worrell

 

[Thetrader15]

F: Stengle - Fogarty - McAdam
HF: Lynch - Walker - McHenry
C: Smith - M Crouch - Milera
HB: Laird - Hartigan - Gibbs
B: Brown - Talia - Doedee

R: O’Brien - B Crouch - Jones
Int: Kelly, Sloane, Seedsman, Gallucci

Emg: Sholl, Frampton, Atkins

I'm rolling with a side without a clear 2nd ruck.

I like this side. I'd probs swap Sholl for Kelly and McAsey for Hartigan but that's just me. No 2nd ruck is a tick in my book.
If Hartigan plays, he's ruck #2, and if not, then Gaucc gets the gig!

 

[Elite Crow]

It would be a better way for us to do things. We compromise our forward structure too much to squeeze one in.

Better for ROB to ruck 100% and then rest from a game completely every 6-7 weeks

It depends on who the second ruck is. Really if they are good tall then it’s the preferred option. Our issue is really Tex and Fog, really it should be Fog and a quality tall/2nd ruck.

 

[Thetrader15]

It would be a better way for us to do things. We compromise our forward structure too much to squeeze one in.

Better for ROB to ruck 100% and then rest from a game completely every 6-7 weeks

Agree - if Hartigan is playing, he's #2 for the 2 or 3 CBAs that ROB doesn't attend

 

[BRL121]

I like this side. I'd probs swap Sholl for Kelly and McAsey for Hartigan but that's just me. No 2nd ruck is a tick in my book.
If Hartigan plays, he's ruck #2, and if not, then Gaucc gets the gig!

We should have kept CEY! He was good in the ruck in the X-games last year.

 

[crows dude]

Gallucci rucking around the ground would be not so bad as hes got that huge vertical jump that we are yet to see. Could be a chance to see it.

 

[Thetrader15]

We should have kept CEY! He was good in the ruck in the X-games last year.

If we are picking a guy for 3mins to play in the ruck, I'd prefer to pick someone who does something else around the ground, hence would pick Frampton / Berg

 

[Thetrader15]

Gallucci rucking around the ground would be not so bad as hes got that huge vertical jump that we are yet to see. Could be a chance to see it.

Around the ground you get your KPPs to do that, it's really the CBA stuff we'd need to contend with. Richmond seemed to do ok knowing they would lose all the taps for 2 or 3 per game

 

[BRL121]

If we are picking a guy for 3mins to play in the ruck, I'd prefer to pick someone who does something else around the ground, hence would pick Frampton / Berg

That's very unkind. CEY was one of our best until mysteriously injured last year: he certainly does a lot more than Gooch around the ground.

 

[Thetrader15]

That's very unkind. CEY was one of our best until mysteriously injured last year: he certainly does a lot more than Gooch around the ground.

Here we go again...Crouch, Crouch, Sloane, Seed and probably Rat were all better than him. Holds his own if the ball is within arms reach, but other than that...

anyway, let's agree to disagree

 

[Mego Red]

We would get flogged out of the centre at the end of each quarter and likely for the last half of the last quarter (or lightly beaten all game at ruck contests if ROB conserves energy during the game).

Meh. I think you could put Eddie Hocking in the ruck and still most centre bounces would be almost 50/50. The hitouts to advantage number in AFL is incredibly low, considering how many contests there are throughout a game.

I just don't think it's worth compromising your side for a 2nd ruck, unless they're first selected in another position. It's like the Aussie team trying to find an all rounder.

 

[1970crow]

We would get flogged out of the centre at the end of each quarter and likely for the last half of the last quarter (or lightly beaten all game at ruck contests if ROB conserves energy during the game).

If we are that worried about four "talls" (inc Lynch) in the forward 50, how about moving Lynch to the wing, maybe something like:

F: Stengle - Fogarty - Himmelberg
HF: McAdam - Walker - McHenry
C: Seedsman - M Crouch - Lynch
HB: Laird - Hartigan - Smith
B: Brown - Talia - Doedee

R: O’Brien - B Crouch - Jones
Int: Kelly, Sloane, Milera, 1 of Gibbs/ Gallucci/ Murphy

Having good kicks like Lynch, Seedsman, Smith, Milera and Walker delivering effectively into the f50 with less f***ing around than last year should also reduce the need for forward pressure

ROB could conserve energy by not rucking inside our forward 30m arc.