Prediction Round 1 2022 - Adelaide vs Fremantle, March 20, 2022

How many wins for the Crows in 2022?


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WheresGroomgone

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Hang on so is Liam Jones playing for us now??
 

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AFC979810

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Bringing this all back to where it started, it was about the selection of Billy Frampton. It doesn't matter too much if Billy is the 22nd player picked if you have a good crop of players down to about player 15 or 16 and you're winning a lot and there is no other obvious upgrade.

The risk in cementing a player like that in the side during a rebuild is that you're trying to establish that core of players. You need the elite top 5 or so, and then a really solid group of great players in the next 10. The rebuild is the time to find all of those players.

Carlton's failing was that yes, their stars weren't amazing. But they also cemented the next 10 group of players way too early, overrated their contribution and refused to move them on. This anchored the team as not good enough.

My opinion in a rebuild is that you need to pick an entire 22 of players you think will be in the top 16 players in the side. Some will make it, some will be huge busts, and some will settle at a role player bottom 6 in the 22 level.

There is no point selecting someone we already know has a ceiling as a bottom 6 role player. We're not at the stage where we need that. We need to find our stars and find our core and we'll only be limiting ourselves if we are already locking away spots on role players.

I have no problem selecting Frampton this year.

We have no idea of his ceiling. He just turned 25 is 202 cm and has only 18 games to his name and hasn't played more than 5 games in a row.

I don't think he will make it as a player, but I am not adverse to giving him another run.
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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we’ve been exactly the same as Carlton. Settled on role players and tried to build around them as if individually they’re indispensable.

Yeah - exactly the same as Carlton and the results prove it.

Since 2001 season.

Carlton bottom 4 finishes - 9
Carlton finals appearances - 3 (7th, 8th, 5th).
Carlton top 4 appearances - 0
Carlton finals wins - 2. Never made a prelim.

Over the past 20 years:

Adelaide bottom 4 finishes - 3
Adelaide Finals Appearances - 12
Adelaide Top 4 appearances - 5
Adelaide finals wins -10. Best season Grand Finalist.
 

1970crow

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Yeah - exactly the same as Carlton and the results prove it.

Since 2001 season.

Carlton bottom 4 finishes - 9
Carlton finals appearances - 3 (7th, 8th, 5th).
Carlton top 4 appearances - 0
Carlton finals wins - 2. Never made a prelim.

Over the past 20 years:

Adelaide bottom 4 finishes - 3
Adelaide Finals Appearances - 12
Adelaide Top 4 appearances - 5
Adelaide finals wins -10. Best season Grand Finalist.

in the context of identifying low range role players and locking them in as if they are irreplaceable. Same strategy as the blues except we’ve just been a much better run club over the journey so haven’t plumbed the depths that they have. You’re smart enough to follow conversations and understand context so every detail doesn’t need to continually be spelt out in every post.
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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in the context of identifying low range role players and locking them in as if they are irreplaceable. Same strategy as the blues except we’ve just been a much better run club over the journey so haven’t plumbed the depths that they have. You’re smart enough to follow conversations and understand context so every detail doesn’t need to continually be spelt out in every post.

I disagree. I think the strategies have been completely different.

You could make a point if us and Carlton had the same results.

The difference between our clubs in the past 10 years is that Carlton can't develop elite talent. Our problem is that from 09 - 19 we lost far too much elite talent.
 

Scorpus

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I have no problem selecting Frampton this year.

We have no idea of his ceiling. He just turned 25 is 202 cm and has only 18 games to his name and hasn't played more than 5 games in a row.

I don't think he will make it as a player, but I am not adverse to giving him another run.

Surely we have an idea of what a player's ceiling is and whether he'll make it after he's on a list for 7 years (his 8th year this year)
 

ams4crows

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Not sure what you're getting at here.

Carlton have a long recent history of recruiting average players like Liam and it's put them where they are.

When you have a team full of average players of course he's going to get games.
As an individual would you rather play at a top club for 3 years, where you're in and out of the 1's or 8 years at a bottom club who gives you a pay rise every 2 years and you play the majority of all 1's games.
 

hey shorty

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As an individual would you rather play at a top club for 3 years, where you're in and out of the 1's or 8 years at a bottom club who gives you a pay rise every 2 years and you play the majority of all 1's games.
It's a very interesting thought process isn't it.

You have the American and European way of thinking, big squads and people leave to join the best. Here, you have guys who just want to play.

As a kid I was lucky enough to be an average player in very good teams that won.

I'd rather that.
 
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With Frampton I hope we take the view "Will he be part of a premiership backline that stands up against quality teams in finals on the MCG?"

Rather than asking simply "Is he capable of matching or slightly exceeding the performance of Nick Murray this week?"
 

1970crow

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I disagree. I think the strategies have been completely different.

You could make a point if us and Carlton had the same results.

The difference between our clubs in the past 10 years is that Carlton can't develop elite talent. Our problem is that from 09 - 19 we lost far too much elite talent.

best 22 strategy isn’t the only factor that determines club performance. Nor is talent development. You can’t say that just because we’ve ultimately been better performed that we couldn’t run the same ‘lock in mediocre role players’ strategy. We’ve probably been better at every other facet of putting a better 22 on the deck. From overall club culture to the lowliest of footy dept employees.
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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With Frampton I hope we take the view "Will he be part of a premiership backline that stands up against quality teams in finals on the MCG?"

Rather than asking simply "Is he capable of matching or slightly exceeding the performance of Nick Murray this week?"

Sounds good. Sounds really good.

But how exactly do you implement that view?

Surely we have an idea of what a player's ceiling is and whether he'll make it after he's on a list for 7 years (his 8th year this year)

Why?

For the first year 6.5 years he was a forward and made the switch to a defensive role for 3 games late in 2021. The club wouldn't really have an idea of what he can do in that role.

200cm AFL footballers don't grow on trees. He is uncontracted at the end of this year. Put him in the side for the first 15 games and make a decision from there.
 

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Sounds good. Sounds really good.

But how exactly do you implement that view?
Don't pick him?

He's contracted so we're stuck with him. So sure, throw him down back and if we get a few injuries to other players he's there in the SANFL ready.

Why?

For the first year 6.5 years he was a forward and made the switch to a defensive role for 3 games late in 2021. The club wouldn't really have an idea of what he can do in that role.

200cm AFL footballers don't grow on trees. He is uncontracted at the end of this year. Put him in the side for the first 15 games and make a decision from there.

The club would hopefully know that almost every single player who ever lived is better in defence, because it's easier.

It's not some magic formula they've discovered with Frampton.

The reason he's failed up forward and looks even worse in ruck is that he's not very good at football.

Our role as a club is not to find roles easy enough for our worst players to show a modicum of success. Who will be the best players? Who are the ones with the highest ceiling? Who are the ones most worthy of investing in?

**If** he's to make himself a defender then his only ticket is to do what Bock/Caven did. Torch the opposition's best tall forwards. Not find some easier niche role where other defenders take the good players and he Liam Joneses his way to a career at our expense.
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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Don't pick him?

He's contracted so we're stuck with him. So sure, throw him down back and if we get a few injuries to other players he's there in the SANFL ready.

I was more suggesting implementing a view as a club around finding "players who can stand up to quality teams in finals at the MCG".

Its one of those great sounding lines, that really has zero substance.

Maybe you should send an email to the club about a strategy to find the best 30 players that can win us a flag.

The club would hopefully know that almost every single player who ever lived is better in defence, because it's easier.

It's not some magic formula they've discovered with Frampton.

The reason he's failed up forward and looks even worse in ruck is that he's not very good at football.

Our role as a club is not to find roles easy enough for our worst players to show a modicum of success. Who will be the best players? Who are the ones with the highest ceiling? Who are the ones most worthy of investing in?

**If** he's to make himself a defender then his only ticket is to do what Bock/Caven did. Torch the opposition's best tall forwards. Not find some easier niche role where other defenders take the good players and he Liam Joneses his way to a career at our expense.

Our club is fantastic at finding the players on our list with the highest ceiling. Only need to look at the players that have come in and done well off of the rookie list.

From 2010 - these are the players that have excelled off of our rookie list - Rory Laird, Kyle Hartigan, Charlie Cameron, Jake Kelly, Reilly Obrien, Hugh Greenwood, Alex Keath, CEH, Lachie Murphy, Ben Keays, Jordan Butts. Nobody in the AFL even comes close to that.

The AFL talent pool was already small, but with the addition of GWS/Gold Coast in the last 10 years it has shrunk even more.

Its not that as a club we try and keep our worst players finding success. Its that we haven't had players with high enough ceilings to replace the players.
 

Scorpus

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Why?

For the first year 6.5 years he was a forward and made the switch to a defensive role for 3 games late in 2021. The club wouldn't really have an idea of what he can do in that role.

200cm AFL footballers don't grow on trees. He is uncontracted at the end of this year. Put him in the side for the first 15 games and make a decision from there.

You think after seeing a player's traits at AFL level and at training for 7 years they would have absolutely no idea how that player would perform in other roles?

Come on now. Our coaches aren't that clueless.

They also have plenty of avenues to assess that outside of AFL matches, including training, match sim and SANFL.

Also to your second point, good 200cm AFL footballers don't grow on trees, but there are plenty of journeymen still in the system. Guys like Tom Campbell, Shaun McKernan, Kaiden Brand, Keegan Brooksby, Lachie Keeffe regularly get delisted every season and could slot straight in for Frampton at any time if we needed one on our list
 

SugarShane

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I was more suggesting implementing a view as a club around finding "players who can stand up to quality teams in finals at the MCG".

Its one of those great sounding lines, that really has zero substance.
The line is probably too specific, I think it's more of a vibe thing. As a viewer you get a good idea who is more likely to than others.

Does the player stand up against quality teams for starters or do they go missing? Or do they play like superstar against poor teams but are anonymous against good teams? If the game isn't on their terms can they find a way to make an impact? Can they win their position when the team is losing?
Does the player dominate SANFL but then fail to translate into AFL form?

I don't think it's such a bad thing to try and judge a player on. Pre-17 did we ever think someone like Atkins or Jenkins was going to stand up and win a Grand Final for us? At the moment though, we aren't really flush for options.
 

Scorpus

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The line is probably too specific, I think it's more of a vibe thing. As a viewer you get a good idea who is more likely to than others.

Does the player stand up against quality teams for starters or do they go missing? Or do they play like superstar against poor teams but are anonymous against good teams? If the game isn't on their terms can they find a way to make an impact? Can they win their position when the team is losing?
Does the player dominate SANFL but then fail to translate into AFL form?

I don't think it's such a bad thing to try and judge a player on. Pre-17 did we ever think someone like Atkins or Jenkins was going to stand up and win a Grand Final for us? At the moment though, we aren't really flush for options.
Atkins has to be the perfect example of us giving games to a player that we knew wouldn't contribute when the pressure was on. It was evident well before his 100th match.

Despite gifting him all those games and overrating his contribution for ages (until Matthew Nicks took one look at him) he now can't even get a game at Gold Coast. Gold Coast!
 

dylan123

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They also have plenty of avenues to assess that outside of AFL matches, including training, match sim and SANFL.
Isn't that the point if he is playing at AFL level? He has proved worth of a shot due to training, match sim/SANFL form? For Frampton in this instance, I don't think anyone is wanting us to blindly put games into him without cause but there was enough cause for him to be given a shot down back late last year from form in the seconds and his form at AFL level as a defender was a promising start. If he can pick up where he left off with that, then he's in serious contention with a couple of others for one of the 3 tall spots down back. If not, then he's depth for a year at SANFL level.
 

Scorpus

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Isn't that the point if he is playing at AFL level? He has proved worth of a shot due to training, match sim/SANFL form? For Frampton in this instance, I don't think anyone is wanting us to blindly put games into him without cause but there was enough cause for him to be given a shot down back late last year from form in the seconds and his form at AFL level as a defender was a promising start. If he can pick up where he left off with that, then he's in serious contention with a couple of others for one of the 3 tall spots down back. If not, then he's depth for a year at SANFL level.

I don't think he did enough to warrant a call up, he was beating up on 190cm SANFL players playing as a loose tall and then looked lost (defensively) when moving up to AFL level.

I think he needs to prove himself as a defender in the lower levels before being called up again and IMO he's clearly shown less as a defender than our other options

I don't think there's much point playing him as a 200cm loose unaccountable defender in an easy position just so we can salvage something out of his contract. Make him a genuine 2nd tall to complement Butts and make him beat Murray for that position.
 

dylan123

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One of the benefits of getting another tall into our backline is it would allow us to move Doedee into Kelly's position - this would mean he no longer has to man 200cm+ resting rucks etc and would have free roam to be as influential as he can in the contest.

The difficulty with this is it means you lose out on some run and carry in the backline as someone like Milera could have been the swap for Kelly but I would like to see whether it works for us.
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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The line is probably too specific, I think it's more of a vibe thing. As a viewer you get a good idea who is more likely to than others.

Does the player stand up against quality teams for starters or do they go missing? Or do they play like superstar against poor teams but are anonymous against good teams? If the game isn't on their terms can they find a way to make an impact? Can they win their position when the team is losing?
Does the player dominate SANFL but then fail to translate into AFL form?

Absolutely all of those questions are important. But the number one thing is to get AFL games into them to find out. Right now Frampton has played 18 games across 7 seasons. Admittedly - its more like 18 across 4 seasons - as he was definitely viewed as a long term prospect so Port were happy to sit on him and develop him for the first 3-4 years.

He is 25 and could play the next 4-5 years. Lets get a block of 15 games into him and see what happens. I would much prefer to see him get a go over 193cm Nick Murray.

I don't think it's such a bad thing to try and judge a player on. Pre-17 did we ever think someone like Atkins or Jenkins was going to stand up and win a Grand Final for us? At the moment though, we aren't really flush for options.

I think that Atkins and Jenkins were perfect for that 2015 - 2017 squad. They are the type of players that won't lose you a grand final, but they could win it.

Grand Finals are funny things. Who would have predicted Shane Ellen in 97 or Jarryd Morton?
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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Atkins has to be the perfect example of us giving games to a player that we knew wouldn't contribute when the pressure was on. It was evident well before his 100th match.

When was it evident? After 8 games in 2015? When he played 24 games in 2016? When he played all 25 games in 2017 when we made a grand final?

I wouldn't say he was gifted games. I would say he was identified as a member of a squad that would push for a flag in 2017. He was a player that had a very high ceiling, but definitely struggled with consistency. Ultimately he wasn't a top 15 player in our squad. Sloane, Crouch, Crouch,Laird, Jacobs, Walker, Jenkins, Lynch, Betts, Talia, Smith, Douglas, Lever, Brown were the core of the team.

Atkins is fantastic as a bottom end player on a good list.

Despite gifting him all those games and overrating his contribution for ages (until Matthew Nicks took one look at him) he now can't even get a game at Gold Coast. Gold Coast!

No surprises here. It was a great move by the club letting him go. The type of player and his age - just didn't fit in with us in 2020.

Obviously he chased the financial security of a 5 year deal and lots of $$$ to Gold Coast, but I am sure a number of Victorian clubs would have wanted him.
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
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One of the benefits of getting another tall into our backline is it would allow us to move Doedee into Kelly's position - this would mean he no longer has to man 200cm+ resting rucks etc and would have free roam to be as influential as he can in the contest.

The difficulty with this is it means you lose out on some run and carry in the backline as someone like Milera could have been the swap for Kelly but I would like to see whether it works for us.

Great point. This is especially important rd 1.

Butts will go to Taberner and its likely that Freo will rotate Lobb (207cm) and Darcy (203) in the forward line all game. With McAsey having an interrupted preseason I think we will start Bad Boy Billy round 1.
 

Ciao Giacomo

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I don't think he did enough to warrant a call up, he was beating up on 190cm SANFL players playing as a loose tall and then looked lost (defensively) when moving up to AFL level.
A very Trump-like approach. It doesn’t matter how many times that you make this statement, it is not correct to say he was playing as a loose tall in the SANFL.

Please quote all the posters that physically attend SANFL matches that support your contention.

I have never been a Frampton fan and I was absolutely shocked that he played so well in his limited appearances as a key defender in the SANFL (though he also had some dominant games as a key forward in the Twos so he is probably a classic tweeter).

Frampton’s efforts to single handedly repel the Roosters at Prospect was the exact opposite to playing as a loose defender. There are plenty of reasons to not play Frampton in the AFL but there is no good reason to make up stuff.