Prediction Round 1 2022 - Adelaide vs Fremantle, March 20, 2022

How many wins for the Crows in 2022?


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Scorpus

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When was it evident? After 8 games in 2015? When he played 24 games in 2016? When he played all 25 games in 2017 when we made a grand final?

I wouldn't say he was gifted games. I would say he was identified as a member of a squad that would push for a flag in 2017. He was a player that had a very high ceiling, but definitely struggled with consistency. Ultimately he wasn't a top 15 player in our squad. Sloane, Crouch, Crouch,Laird, Jacobs, Walker, Jenkins, Lynch, Betts, Talia, Smith, Douglas, Lever, Brown were the core of the team.

Atkins is fantastic as a bottom end player on a good list.



No surprises here. It was a great move by the club letting him go. The type of player and his age - just didn't fit in with us in 2020.

Obviously he chased the financial security of a 5 year deal and lots of $$$ to Gold Coast, but I am sure a number of Victorian clubs would have wanted him.
So if Atkins is a great player at the bottom of a good list why isn't he getting games at Gold Coast? Their list is far worse than ours in 2017. Good players in great lists should easily get games at crappy clubs

You're basically saying "he played games so it's evident he was good". No. The way he played was never conducive to high pressure matches and he consistently performed poorly in them. Merely playing games is not evident of quality
 

skam85

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When was it evident? After 8 games in 2015? When he played 24 games in 2016? When he played all 25 games in 2017 when we made a grand final?

I wouldn't say he was gifted games. I would say he was identified as a member of a squad that would push for a flag in 2017. He was a player that had a very high ceiling, but definitely struggled with consistency. Ultimately he wasn't a top 15 player in our squad. Sloane, Crouch, Crouch,Laird, Jacobs, Walker, Jenkins, Lynch, Betts, Talia, Smith, Douglas, Lever, Brown were the core of the team.

Atkins is fantastic as a bottom end player on a good list.



No surprises here. It was a great move by the club letting him go. The type of player and his age - just didn't fit in with us in 2020.

Obviously he chased the financial security of a 5 year deal and lots of $$$ to Gold Coast, but I am sure a number of Victorian clubs would have wanted him.

Anyone with two eyes could see Atkins went to water when the going got tough.

and currently he is a terrible bottom end player on a bad list.
 

James_37

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The club would hopefully know that almost every single player who ever lived is better in defence, because it's easier.

It's not some magic formula they've discovered with Frampton.

The reason he's failed up forward and looks even worse in ruck is that he's not very good at football.

Our role as a club is not to find roles easy enough for our worst players to show a modicum of success. Who will be the best players? Who are the ones with the highest ceiling? Who are the ones most worthy of investing in?

**If** he's to make himself a defender then his only ticket is to do what Bock/Caven did. Torch the opposition's best tall forwards. Not find some easier niche role where other defenders take the good players and he Liam Joneses his way to a career at our expense.

The thing with Frampton from my point of view is that there’s a good reason he’s survived so long in the AFL system. He has a lot of desirable traits at AFL, including his mix of height, athleticism, physicality, skills and when his confidence is up he’s shown himself to be a strong contested mark, he has also shown the capacity to absolutely make a mess of SANFL level footballers. The key issue IMO appears to have been the issues between his ears, in that I think there’s significant confidence issues there. One of the benefits of playing in defence is its a different focus than playing forward, less pressure on you to find the ball, the ball tends to find you a lot more.

Personally, I didn’t think he would have any hope as a defender, however having actually watched him, he’s shown a lot of promise and to come back to your last paragraph, I think he has the capacity to do a Nathan Bock. Ultimately though, we haven’t seen anywhere near enough of him as a defender to make a call one way or the other. Personally I think he showed enough such that its worth exploring seriously in 2022. The pay off is potentially a rebounding 200cm CHB who could also offer strong intercept support to Butts at FB and take a bit of pressure off Doedee backing into packs he simply shouldn’t.

Anyone with two eyes could see Atkins went to water when the going got tough.

and currently he is a terrible bottom end player on a bad list.

It was clear he was the wrong player for GC to be targeting as well. He belonged at a club with an finals side needing a bit of outside class, not at a perennial cellar dweller needing players who can stand up and show the way in a struggling side.
 

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Scorpus

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It was clear he was the wrong player for GC to be targeting as well. He belonged at a club with an finals side needing a bit of outside class, not at a perennial cellar dweller needing players who can stand up and show the way in a struggling side.

I'm not sure. We had a finals side and he wasn't right for us. His extreme outside play and lack of contested work isn't ideal for a side playing pressure finals.

But he's also not right for a cellar dweller.

I think he's best as a stopgap option for a mid-table side, a team like St Kilda or Fremantle that wants to be competitive in the H&A season until all the pieces of their team are finalized. A cheap, dispensable role player to plug a hole for a few seasons.
 

Golumless

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Absolutely all of those questions are important. But the number one thing is to get AFL games into them to find out. Right now Frampton has played 18 games across 7 seasons. Admittedly - its more like 18 across 4 seasons - as he was definitely viewed as a long term prospect so Port were happy to sit on him and develop him for the first 3-4 years.

He is 25 and could play the next 4-5 years. Lets get a block of 15 games into him and see what happens. I would much prefer to see him get a go over 193cm Nick Murray.



I think that Atkins and Jenkins were perfect for that 2015 - 2017 squad. They are the type of players that won't lose you a grand final, but they could win it.

Grand Finals are funny things. Who would have predicted Shane Ellen in 97 or Jarryd Morton?

And lets be honest, both of them were a big reason why we belted Geelong in the preliminary final, as both got off the chain in the first quarter.

I don't know if I'd say perfect for both. Both could have been, had Jenkins not held us to ransom after 2016 (which unfortunately was his right to do so) and Atkins didn't regress after looking like he'd break out in 2017.

That said, you have rocks in your head if you're choosing Frampton over Nick Murray as a defender. Murray has the highest ceiling out of all of them. Showed he was a capable stopper, and is a genuine contested marking threat once he gets more confidence, seeing he's already taken some big grabs.
 

AFC979810

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So if Atkins is a great player at the bottom of a good list why isn't he getting games at Gold Coast? Their list is far worse than ours in 2017. Good players in great lists should easily get games at crappy clubs

Never said he was a great player. Said he was a fantastic player to have as part of our squad in 2015 - 2017.

Well - he did have an injury wrecked preseason which derailed his season and lead to him getting his Gold Coast debut in week 9. So I think its too early to say he a healthy rat won't get a game at Gold Coast in 2022.

Players need to also be looked at within the context of a team and their role. As the 18th - 22nd best player in a top 2 side he was great. Would I want him as a top 5 - 15 player at my club - Absolutely not.

Would a fat Stewie Dew have played any football for a bottom 4 side in 2008? Nope.

I think he will play a lot more football if healthy in 2022, but won't be anything special.

You're basically saying "he played games so it's evident he was good". No. The way he played was never conducive to high pressure matches and he consistently performed poorly in them. Merely playing games is not evident of quality

The guy had a top 10 best and fairest finish (2018) with 15 Brownlow votes. Ain't no way he was "gifted games".
 

Betts are off

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Barring injury, How many of the 5 draftees from 2020 do you all see playing round 1?

Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Berry, Rowe.

I'd be happy to predict 3, Thilthorpe and Berry for sure, and one of the other 3, but not confident in naming which one yet.

Think Rowe is fighting an uphill battle now with Rachele on the list
 

AFC979810

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And lets be honest, both of them were a big reason why we belted Geelong in the preliminary final, as both got off the chain in the first quarter.

I don't know if I'd say perfect for both. Both could have been, had Jenkins not held us to ransom after 2016 (which unfortunately was his right to do so) and Atkins didn't regress after looking like he'd break out in 2017.

I mean it all went to sh*t from October 2017 onwards, not just Atkins and Jenkins.

However, I really feel like that Sept 2014 - Sept 2017 was really a golden era for our club. We had a new CEO, Coach and Captain who were all on the same page and absolutely nailed where our list was at, when our window would open and it seemed every decision moved us towards that.
That said, you have rocks in your head if you're choosing Frampton over Nick Murray as a defender. Murray has the highest ceiling out of all of them. Showed he was a capable stopper, and is a genuine contested marking threat once he gets more confidence, seeing he's already taken some big grabs.

My worry, particularly round 1 is that if we go Murray over Frampton in round 1 - we will have only one key defender over 195cm against Tabs (198cm), Lobb (207cm) and Darcy (203cm). That can go sideways pretty quickly.
 

AFC979810

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It was clear he was the wrong player for GC to be targeting as well. He belonged at a club with an finals side needing a bit of outside class, not at a perennial cellar dweller needing players who can stand up and show the way in a struggling side.

100% correct.

Although I don't blame him. It's worse for his career, but so much better for his bank account.
 

Golumless

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I mean it all went to sh*t from October 2017 onwards, not just Atkins and Jenkins.

However, I really feel like that Sept 2014 - Sept 2017 was really a golden era for our club. We had a new CEO, Coach and Captain who were all on the same page and absolutely nailed where our list was at, when our window would open and it seemed every decision moved us towards that.


My worry, particularly round 1 is that if we go Murray over Frampton in round 1 - we will have only one key defender over 195cm against Tabs (198cm), Lobb (207cm) and Darcy (203cm). That can go sideways pretty quickly.

I don't think our golden era was 14-17, it certainly could have been but we mismanged our way out of it. The sliding doors moment was draft sanctions and it's a horrible one at that. After all, does three more kids with our drafting record at the time convince Dangerfield for one more contract (especially if you want to believe the smoke we were interested in Cripps)? Unfortunately that hole probably cost us a premiership in the end of the day.

Height isn't everything at the end of the day and I'd back a defensive pairing of Butts/Murray/Doedee to do more than Butts/Frampton/Doedee. Of course the wildcard is moving Doedee away from the third tall role, and really, it's time to do so. That said the goal really should be with our defence in 2022 to develop the Murray/Butts pairing and try to add some intercepting power to both. Build the partnership and reap those rewards down the track, especially as the sky is the limit for both.
 

Scorpus

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However, I really feel like that Sept 2014 - Sept 2017 was really a golden era for our club. We had a new CEO, Coach and Captain who were all on the same page and absolutely nailed where our list was at, when our window would open and it seemed every decision moved us towards that.

I can see how you would think that, but I feel you are overrating the position we were actually in and in doing so, overrating the contributions of some of the players we had.

A club that was in a golden era and that was "nailing" the list wouldn't fail so quickly in the face of adversity. I think that adversity badly exposed a significant portion of our playing list that was being overrated internally and, in some cases, by the league at large. You have to remember that even though we performed well in 2017 it was our only top 4 finish of that era, it's not like we were dominant over a stretch of multiple seasons.

Following that in the space of a couple of seasons we've moved on nearly every player in that team. That doesn't happen if what we had at the time was a golden era. Quality should outshine that. Many of the players we moved on have gone on to perform worse at other clubs, or have simply left the AFL system.

Ultimately the decisions we made to push us towards that supposed "golden era" were also the decisions that led to a significant decline in the following years. That includes overrating players among a multitude of issues.

I think most of your posts in here have been coming from this baseline position that actually we were excellent during that period and doing that exact same thing again will lead us to success. Applying those old philosophies to our new generation (eg selecting the Framptons on the list is fine because previously we selected the Atkinses on our list and that was fine)

Fundamentally I'm disagreeing with you on so many things because of that. I don't think we should repeat what we did, because I don't think we were successful doing it last time. We need a new, better approach.
 
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My worry, particularly round 1 is that if we go Murray over Frampton in round 1 - we will have only one key defender over 195cm against Tabs (198cm), Lobb (207cm) and Darcy (203cm). That can go sideways pretty quickly.
This is the type of thinking the club has used in the past.

Who are we playing this week?

And pick a team based purely on that. That has historically been the full extent of our vision and forward thinking.

That's why a Frampton selection would frustrate me. It seems as though we've moved on from our poor decisions of the past and are starting to develop a good crop of young players with big upside. Our selections last year were mostly (Mackay > Worrell aside) of long term benefit to the club. Same with our list management calls. So much of the last 12 months has been positive. We're moving in the right direction.

A Frampton selection would be a step back in time to the limited players we've ultimately been burned by for 2+ decades.
 

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AFC979810

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This is the type of thinking the club has used in the past.

Who are we playing this week?


And pick a team based purely on that. That has historically been the full extent of our vision and forward thinking.

That's why a Frampton selection would frustrate me. It seems as though we've moved on from our poor decisions of the past and are starting to develop a good crop of young players with big upside. Our selections last year were mostly (Mackay > Worrell aside) of long term benefit to the club. Same with our list management calls. So much of the last 12 months has been positive. We're moving in the right direction.

A Frampton selection would be a step back in time to the limited players we've ultimately been burned by for 2+ decades.

So no Sloane, Walker in 2022?

While we are at it - we ain't contending until 2025 so why bother with Smith, Seedsman and Brown who will all be 33 when we compete next.

Framptoms 25 and has 18 games to his name. He showed something last year in defense. Why not give him in a run - especially when its beneficial to the team in week 1?
 
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So no Sloane, Walker in 2022?

While we are at it - we ain't contending until 2025 so why bother with Smith, Seedsman and Brown who will all be 33 when we compete next.

Framptoms 25 and has 18 games to his name. He showed something last year in defense. Why not give him in a run - especially when its beneficial to the team in week 1?
Those are good players who have played good football for years at AFL level.

Brad Moran has played more good AFL football than Frampton.

What would it take for us to put a line through a player?

We need to set higher standards.
 

AFC979810

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Those are good players who have played good football for years at AFL level.

Brad Moran has played more good AFL football than Frampton.

What would it take for us to put a line through a player?

We need to set higher standards.

We do it. Look at the Gooch. First rounder. Lasted 3 years on our list. We forced some games into him in 2019 to see what he had and cut him.

Our talent identification of KPP is 2nd to none in the AFL over the past 20 years. Rutten, Bock, Hentschel, Butts from the rookie draft, Davis, Lever, Talia, Tippett from the regular draft - Jenkins & Lynch from other clubs - not to mention Walker.

Its why I think its prudent to give the club the benefit of the doubt with McAsey and Frampton. Obviously the club still sees something with them.

Frampton is only 25 and is yet to be given more than 5 AFL games in a row. We have put 3 years into him. He is out of contract at the end of this year. Can't understand why anyone would be upset if we gave him a decent run of games to find out.
 
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Frampton is only 25 and is yet to be given more than 5 AFL games in a row. We have put 3 years into him. He is out of contract at the end of this year. Can't understand why anyone would be upset if we gave him a decent run of games to find out.
The reason is that while we're taking this decent run of games to find out what we already know, we're also missing out on using those games on someone who is a chance to succeed.

We have to take half a season to start over. For a developing team that is absolute poison.

Carlton would pick Billy Frampton.

I'm going to pause my melt though. We haven't even picked him yet. I'm worried that we will but I'll hold fire for now.
 

AFC979810

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I can see how you would think that, but I feel you are overrating the position we were actually in and in doing so, overrating the contributions of some of the players we had.

A club that was in a golden era and that was "nailing" the list wouldn't fail so quickly in the face of adversity. I think that adversity badly exposed a significant portion of our playing list that was being overrated internally and, in some cases, by the league at large. You have to remember that even though we performed well in 2017 it was our only top 4 finish of that era, it's not like we were dominant over a stretch of multiple seasons.

Following that in the space of a couple of seasons we've moved on nearly every player in that team. That doesn't happen if what we had at the time was a golden era. Quality should outshine that. Many of the players we moved on have gone on to perform worse at other clubs, or have simply left the AFL system.

Ultimately the decisions we made to push us towards that supposed "golden era" were also the decisions that led to a significant decline in the following years. That includes overrating players among a multitude of issues.

Jesus. We were building. From 2014 - 2017. We went from 10th to 7th to 5th to 1st. In 2017 we were the 7th oldest list in terms of age and 15th oldest in terms of games played. That list was built to dominate and was brilliantly balanced. We were younger than Richmond in both games played and average age and they went on to win another 2 flags.

Also - do you think we join with Collective Minds if Walsh isn't murdered?

What other Grand Final side has 12 of its 22 Grand Final players go on to play for other clubs within 5 years of the Grand Final. That doesn't include a further 2 players who played in 2017, but missed the grand final but still left (McGovern, Keath). You massively underestimate how damaging our cultish collective minds camp was on our entire club.

What we went through in the aftermath of 2017 has not happened to any other club. What Fagan/Walsh/Walker implemented was brilliant. Listen to Walsh's early press conferences in Oct/Nov of 2014. He talked about building a club that's premiership window would OPEN in 2017.

I think most of your posts in here have been coming from this baseline position that actually we were excellent during that period and doing that exact same thing again will lead us to success. Applying those old philosophies to our new generation (eg selecting the Framptons on the list is fine because previously we selected the Atkinses on our list and that was fine)

Fundamentally I'm disagreeing with you on so many things because of that. I don't think we should repeat what we did, because I don't think we were successful doing it last time. We need a new, better approach.

I 100% would love to see us do at the end of this year what we did at the end of 2014. New Coach & New Captain and say we are aiming to challenge for a flag from 2024 / 2025 onwards. And then actually go out and build a squad that does it.
 

Golumless

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We do it. Look at the Gooch. First rounder. Lasted 3 years on our list. We forced some games into him in 2019 to see what he had and cut him.

Our talent identification of KPP is 2nd to none in the AFL over the past 20 years. Rutten, Bock, Hentschel, Butts from the rookie draft, Davis, Lever, Talia, Tippett from the regular draft - Jenkins & Lynch from other clubs - not to mention Walker.

Its why I think its prudent to give the club the benefit of the doubt with McAsey and Frampton. Obviously the club still sees something with them.

Frampton is only 25 and is yet to be given more than 5 AFL games in a row. We have put 3 years into him. He is out of contract at the end of this year. Can't understand why anyone would be upset if we gave him a decent run of games to find out.

To do so ignores 2021, and the big thing we achieved in 2021 is we've found our long term key defensive pairing in Butts/Murray.

The only reason you consider McAsey or Frampton is you're willing to move Doedee into Kellys role, and to free up the 3rd tall role (and you don't want Worrell there, which I think is a mistake), or Murray/Butts have a case of 2nd year blues. Other than that, the best thing for the club right now is to consider them depth, try them in other roles, and prepare to move them on at the end of 2022-23 if they don't take. In Framptons case, we've already answered that question by moving him into defense, it's time to move on.
 

AFC979810

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The reason is that while we're taking this decent run of games to find out what we already know, we're also missing out on using those games on someone who is a chance to succeed.

We have to take half a season to start over. For a developing team that is absolute poison.

Carlton would pick Billy Frampton.

I'm going to pause my melt though. We haven't even picked him yet. I'm worried that we will but I'll hold fire for now.

Any particular players we have missed on giving games to that have gone on to succeed?
 

skam85

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Jesus. We were building. From 2014 - 2017. We went from 10th to 7th to 5th to 1st. In 2017 we were the 7th oldest list in terms of age and 15th oldest in terms of games played. That list was built to dominate and was brilliantly balanced. We were younger than Richmond in both games played and average age and they went on to win another 2 flags.

Also - do you think we join with Collective Minds if Walsh isn't murdered?

What other Grand Final side has 12 of its 22 Grand Final players go on to play for other clubs within 5 years of the Grand Final. That doesn't include a further 2 players who played in 2017, but missed the grand final but still left (McGovern, Keath). You massively underestimate how damaging our cultish collective minds camp was on our entire club.

What we went through in the aftermath of 2017 has not happened to any other club. What Fagan/Walsh/Walker implemented was brilliant. Listen to Walsh's early press conferences in Oct/Nov of 2014. He talked about building a club that's premiership window would OPEN in 2017.



I 100% would love to see us do at the end of this year what we did at the end of 2014. New Coach & New Captain and say we are aiming to challenge for a flag from 2024 / 2025 onwards. And then actually go out and build a squad that does it.

You've really missed the papering over the cracks of our poor performances in 2016/17 and just gone straight to the Collective Minds blame

Yeah that was bad and is a big reason for a lot of what happened after but don't pretend for a second we didn't drop the ball badly at key times in 2016/17 which turned from a worrying trend into the norm.
 

Scorpus

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Jesus. We were building. From 2014 - 2017. We went from 10th to 7th to 5th to 1st. In 2017 we were the 7th oldest list in terms of age and 15th oldest in terms of games played. That list was built to dominate and was brilliantly balanced. We were younger than Richmond in both games played and average age and they went on to win another 2 flags.

Also - do you think we join with Collective Minds if Walsh isn't murdered?

What other Grand Final side has 12 of its 22 Grand Final players go on to play for other clubs within 5 years of the Grand Final. That doesn't include a further 2 players who played in 2017, but missed the grand final but still left (McGovern, Keath). You massively underestimate how damaging our cultish collective minds camp was on our entire club.

What we went through in the aftermath of 2017 has not happened to any other club. What Fagan/Walsh/Walker implemented was brilliant. Listen to Walsh's early press conferences in Oct/Nov of 2014. He talked about building a club that's premiership window would OPEN in 2017.

So you're attributing everything to the camp?

I think there's more to it than just a single event. There were cultural issues brewing away well before the events of the camp, exacerbated by it and then hurt further by the club's atrocious response.

Clubs don't just fall apart after a single bit of adversity. We're not the only club to be challenged
 

AFC979810

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7 years in the AFL system and yet to play more than five games in a row.

Tells you everything you need to know

Does it?

Take Reilly O'Brien. When he was 25 (Framptons age) he was entering his 6th year on our list and had played 20 games. Who is to say Frampton can't come in and cement himself this year?

These 200cm take time. They are also physical specimens that are rare. They are worth the extra time/investment/risk - because if they become quality its a massive advantage for your list.
 

Scorpus

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Does it?

Take Reilly O'Brien. When he was 25 (Framptons age) he was entering his 6th year on our list and had played 20 games. Who is to say Frampton can't come in and cement himself this year?

These 200cm take time. They are also physical specimens that are rare. They are worth the extra time/investment/risk - because if they become quality its a massive advantage for your list.
Reilly O'Brien was a clear best 22 player and solid contributor half way through his 5th season after a dozen games

The upcoming season is Frampton's 8th and he's not at that level.

Huge difference