Prediction Round 1 2022 Team

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bird_man

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I dont think 4 key forwards can play in 1 side. King, Marshall and Membrey are all picked ahead of Sharman.
It would be a similar setup to Melbourne's.

2 rucks, 2 key forwards and a third tall.

If Sharmans form was to continue from last year then we'd just had to find a way to play him.
 

Ducky Tie

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It would be a similar setup to Melbourne's.

2 rucks, 2 key forwards and a third tall.

If Sharmans form was to continue from last year then we'd just had to find a way to play him.
Yeah I think it would be ok. It's not for the whole game anyway. Ryder probably plays low 70s % time on ground leaving Marshall in the ruck in those times. Marshall as a forward doesn't play as a traditional forward. He pushes up and takes a lot of around the ground stoppages even while Ryder is on the field. Membrey goes back for the last few minutes of plenty of quarters and he roams pretty high as a forward.
 

BrutThough

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It would be a similar setup to Melbourne's.

2 rucks, 2 key forwards and a third tall.

If Sharmans form was to continue from last year then we'd just had to find a way to play him.
I'd rather the extra mid who we can rotate forward than a 4th tall.
 

bird_man

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I'd rather the extra mid who we can rotate forward than a 4th tall.
I'd definitely rather the extra forward if he can continue to average 2 to 2.5 goals a game.

No need to stack your side with average mids IMO.

Most of the time it's the same 4 or 5 mids going into 90% of the centre bounces.
 

L_W_P

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FB: Paton - Howard - Webster
HB: Sinclair - Wilkie - Highmore
C: Billings - Steele - Hill
HF: Gresham - Membrey - Higgins
FF: Marshall - King - Butler
R: Ryder - Jones - Crouch
I: Clark - Coffield - Ross - Bytel
MS: McKenzie

Battle, Byrnes, Connolly and Sharman need to push for selection.

Hanners will get a game if fit, but I'm not banking on it. Same with Kent and Wood.

Gears is depth at best.
 

BrutThough

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I'd definitely rather the extra forward if he can continue to average 2 to 2.5 goals a game.

No need to stack your side with average mids IMO.

Most of the time it's the same 4 or 5 mids go if into 90% of the centre bounces.
If he is averaging 2-2.5 goals a game, then he'd be the one of the best forwards in the comp and wouldn't be the 4th tall forward.

The same about average mids playing forward could be said about stacking too many tall forwards in the side so some need to spend time up on the wing or higher up the ground than they are suited. Thats part of how we ruined Battle last year.
 

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bird_man

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If he is averaging 2-2.5 goals a game, then he'd be the one of the best forwards in the comp and wouldn't be the 4th tall forward.

The same about average mids playing forward could be said about stacking too many tall forwards in the side so some need to spend time up on the wing or higher up the ground than they are suited. Thats part of how we ruined Battle last year.
Not if they are all quality.

We won't know if Sharman can continue to average 2 goals a game if we don't pick him

So far he's doing more than that so there is no reason to drop him.

We ruined Battle by playing him all over the shop.

Melbourne didn't ruin any of their forwards playing the same setup.
 

Jack Green

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Feb 14, 2018
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Not if they are all quality.

We won't know if Sharman can continue to average 2 goals a game if we don't pick him

So far he's doing more than that so there is no reason to drop him.

We ruined Battle by playing him all over the shop.

Melbourne didn't ruin any of their forwards playing the same setup.
Sharman Round 1 is a given for me. He looked very comfortable at AFL level from Day 1. He was 21 though not a teenager of course.
Agreed, it makes the best 22 forward line a bit top heavy , but I suspect Paddy might play a dozen games , Membrey do the swing-man back more often and Marshall ruck more minutes, so for considerable game time the forward line won't be so tall. Depends on Ryder at 34 but you suspect he might do more minutes on bench than up forward than previous years as well. [ even though a handy tall forward]

The Ross debate- been a good player but certainly no star. Also think if we are going places and not treading water, by the middle of the season if one of the younger lads has cemented a spot in front of him, that means we are doing the former :think:
 

BrutThough

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Not if they are all quality.

We won't know if Sharman can continue to average 2 goals a game if we don't pick him

So far he's doing more than that so there is no reason to drop him.

We ruined Battle by playing him all over the shop.

Melbourne didn't ruin any of their forwards playing the same setup.
There is also nothing to say right now that rotating more players through the midfield which will lead to more mids needing to spend time forward is any less quality than playing 4 key forwards, meaning one of the forwards will need to spend extra time on the bench or play up the ground more than they naturally would.

Also, Melbourne's forward set up isnt exactly comparable or the best forward line going around. Ben Brown played the last 8 games, and Tom McDonald's output completely dropped off - kicking multiple goals only twice. So you could say that McDonald's impact on games was impacted by adding in the extra key forward. Luke Jackson is being counted as a key forward despite being goalless in 14/24 games this year, including only kicking more than 1 goal in 4 games. He contributed very little up forward which is one of the reasons they wanted to bring in another big target. For us, Marshall functions as a genuine key forward when Ryder is rucking, being as dangerous and demanding as much attention as any of our forwards.

And while Bayley Fritsch is the same size as Membrey, they play completely differently. Membrey plays as a tall, marking forward despite his size while Fritsch plays a bit smaller despite being a good mark. So while was their leading goal kicker, it is a stretch to count him as a key forward given the ways he plays.
 

bird_man

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There is also nothing to say right now that rotating more players through the midfield which will lead to more mids needing to spend time forward is any less quality than playing 4 key forwards, meaning one of the forwards will need to spend extra time on the bench or play up the ground more than they naturally would.

Also, Melbourne's forward set up isnt exactly comparable or the best forward line going around. Ben Brown played the last 8 games, and Tom McDonald's output completely dropped off - kicking multiple goals only twice. So you could say that McDonald's impact on games was impacted by adding in the extra key forward. Luke Jackson is being counted as a key forward despite being goalless in 14/24 games this year, including only kicking more than 1 goal in 4 games. He contributed very little up forward which is one of the reasons they wanted to bring in another big target. For us, Marshall functions as a genuine key forward when Ryder is rucking, being as dangerous and demanding as much attention as any of our forwards.

And while Bayley Fritsch is the same size as Membrey, they play completely differently. Membrey plays as a tall, marking forward despite his size while Fritsch plays a bit smaller despite being a good mark. So while was their leading goal kicker, it is a stretch to count him as a key forward given the ways he plays.
There is when the guy you are leaving out is averaging 2.5 goals a game.

Fritch and Membrey might not be the exact type of players but both are still very mobile 3rd tall types.

You can count Jackson as a key forward or a ruck, either way we'd both be playing two rucks which is what I said in my previous post.

I can't see us leaving Sharman out. He's already one of our most promising young players and whilst it may be a small sample size has averaged more goals a game than any of our other players last year.
 

BrutThough

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There is when the guy you are leaving out is averaging 2.5 goals a game.

Fritch and Membrey might not be the exact type of players but both are still very mobile 3rd tall types.

You can count Jackson as a key forward or a ruck, either way we'd both be playing two rucks which is what I said in my previous post.

I can't see us leaving Sharman out. He's already one of our most promising young players and whilst it may be a small sample size has averaged more goals a game than any of our other players last year.
Fritch and Membrey are completely different types of forwards. Membrey plays more like Brown and McDonald than Fritch.

Also, I can't take the use of average goals seriously when it is a 3 game sample size. Sharman looks very promising and could become a very good player - he'd be first in line as a fwd replacement if there were any injures or if Ryder needed a rest - but despite that 3 game average, if you lined all our key forward types up and did a school yard pick, King, Marshall and Membrey would all be chosen ahead.
 

PostmanBish

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Sep 6, 2019
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There is when the guy you are leaving out is averaging 2.5 goals a game.

Fritch and Membrey might not be the exact type of players but both are still very mobile 3rd tall types.

You can count Jackson as a key forward or a ruck, either way we'd both be playing two rucks which is what I said in my previous post.

I can't see us leaving Sharman out. He's already one of our most promising young players and whilst it may be a small sample size has averaged more goals a game than any of our other players last year.
I like the way Sharman goes about his football - it's uncomplicated, not broken by our past failings, and very natural. If he can work in tandem with King effectively, as talls, with Butler/Higgins as smalls, it gives us a good young core. Membrey is still going to do some good work, but a strong showing from Sharman frees him up to do good work down back during time-on to stop our leakage of cheap goals, which was something he did really well in the run home.

I'd like to give Sharman at least the first 6 weeks of 2022 to really try and cement himself - he earned that chance with his end-of-season games, and showed enough to suggest he could be a good contributor, so if he did the offseason work, I would like to see him picked.
 

bird_man

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Fritch and Membrey are completely different types of forwards. Membrey plays more like Brown and McDonald than Fritch.

Also, I can't take the use of average goals seriously when it is a 3 game sample size. Sharman looks very promising and could become a very good player - he'd be first in line as a fwd replacement if there were any injures or if Ryder needed a rest - but despite that 3 game average, if you lined all our key forward types up and did a school yard pick, King, Marshall and Membrey would all be chosen ahead.
4 games

And he kicked 4 goals in his last game and got a Brownlow vote.

Would be a harsh call to drop him.
 

luca77

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Sep 5, 2010
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I like the way Sharman goes about his football - it's uncomplicated, not broken by our past failings, and very natural. If he can work in tandem with King effectively, as talls, with Butler/Higgins as smalls, it gives us a good young core. Membrey is still going to do some good work, but a strong showing from Sharman frees him up to do good work down back during time-on to stop our leakage of cheap goals, which was something he did really well in the run home.

I'd like to give Sharman at least the first 6 weeks of 2022 to really try and cement himself - he earned that chance with his end-of-season games, and showed enough to suggest he could be a good contributor, so if he did the offseason work, I would like to see him picked.
There should be a few preseason games for Sharman to make himself undroppable.
Despite his end to the year, if he doesn't do much in those games, he might have to wait a couple of weeks for a crack at it. If he keeps doing what he did in that last few rounds, and there are no injuries, the club will have a tough call to make on the forward setup.
Birdy and Brut are both making valid points, I don't think it's clear cut - but it doesn't really need to be at this stage.
Membrey dropping back to defence last year might give us a little bit more flexibility with team balance, and Gresh or Hanners going forward could give us enough small presence to justify an extra tall in the 22.
RyMa together does make it a pretty damn tall forward line already though. Will be interesting to see what they try.
Maybe King can be told to stay low and play small.
 

RobbieMuir

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Oct 28, 2013
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4 games

And he kicked 4 goals in his last game and got a Brownlow vote.

Would be a harsh call to drop him.
Hopefully my maths is correct, but Sharman actually only played three and a third games (coming on late as a sub in his debut) for a total of ten goals, so his goals-per-game average is actually higher than what everyone is quoting at 3.3 goals per game.

A small sample size as Brut said, but a higher average than any other player in the comp. I can’t possibly see them leaving out of our round one side.
 

phantom13

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FB: Paton - Howard - Wilkie
HB: Sinclair - Battle - Highmore
C: Billings - Steele - Hill
HF: Sharman - Membrey - Higgins
FF: Gresham - King - Butler
R: Ryder - Jones - Crouch
I: Clark - Coffield - Marshall - Bytel
MS: McKenzie

Notes:

- I sincerely hope that Battle becomes our permanent CHB, hes a tiny bit undersized but run and field kicking makes up for that (not too many teams with real monster CHF's anyway)
- Backline has some chops and changes if needed (Coff-Highmore, Hill-Sinclair, Geary/Webster-Paton)
- Im not sold on the wings, both very attacking and pretty horrible defensively, Clark or Coff may be better options there but we will see
- Gresh stays forward, all year, unless were going hail mary centre clearance with 5 left on the clock, hes a bad field kick and in spite of being good in traffic tend to just kick it over his shoulder in hope. Could be the best small forward in the comp
- Like everyone else i assume Hanners doesnt play
- Probably hoping the likes of Conolly and Bytel go past some
- Marshall can swing forward when King rests or if we want a mismatch but Ryder should ruck then rest on the bench, hes a great forward but we need to give him managed gametime

I think our 22 looks really good, can undervalue how difficult this year has been (Paton, Jones, Gresh, Ryder, Marshall, Clark all missing huge chunks was brutal) so im pretty glad weve kept our powder dry with trading and backed this group in. We need some injury luck (surely we spent alllllll the bad luck last year) and hope that any injuries hit our deeper parts of the list (If Howard, King, Marshall/Ryder go down were pretty f’ed again)
 

bird_man

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FB: Paton - Howard - Wilkie
HB: Sinclair - Battle - Highmore
C: Billings - Steele - Hill
HF: Sharman - Membrey - Higgins
FF: Gresham - King - Butler
R: Ryder - Jones - Crouch
I: Clark - Coffield - Marshall - Bytel
MS: McKenzie

Notes:

- I sincerely hope that Battle becomes our permanent CHB, hes a tiny bit undersized but run and field kicking makes up for that (not too many teams with real monster CHF's anyway)
- Backline has some chops and changes if needed (Coff-Highmore, Hill-Sinclair, Geary/Webster-Paton)
- Im not sold on the wings, both very attacking and pretty horrible defensively, Clark or Coff may be better options there but we will see
- Gresh stays forward, all year, unless were going hail mary centre clearance with 5 left on the clock, hes a bad field kick and in spite of being good in traffic tend to just kick it over his shoulder in hope. Could be the best small forward in the comp
- Like everyone else i assume Hanners doesnt play
- Probably hoping the likes of Conolly and Bytel go past some
- Marshall can swing forward when King rests or if we want a mismatch but Ryder should ruck then rest on the bench, hes a great forward but we need to give him managed gametime

I think our 22 looks really good, can undervalue how difficult this year has been (Paton, Jones, Gresh, Ryder, Marshall, Clark all missing huge chunks was brutal) so im pretty glad weve kept our powder dry with trading and backed this group in. We need some injury luck (surely we spent alllllll the bad luck last year) and hope that any injuries hit our deeper parts of the list (If Howard, King, Marshall/Ryder go down were pretty f’ed again)
Bytel is going to have to show a fair bit of improvement if he's going to take Ross's spot.

He also probably needs to show he can be more versatile.

Ross was top 7 again in the best and fairest. I'll be amazed if he isn't in the 22 round one
 

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