Prediction ROUND 1 2023 - Pick your best team

[1970crow]

I’d say it’s 50-50 RE round 1

Wouldn’t jump to conclusions that Himmelberg plays over TT yet

yeh, 15 posts in on the subject and it dawned on me that with Strachan out, they may have used the opportunity to give TT more time in the ruck.

 

[Gtowncrow]

Himmelberg has played some good footy, there's no doubt about that. But even his best hasn't been that good that he should be keeping an elite talent in the 2s. This is not just a failure of TT, it's also a failure of the coaches having no patience/courage to wear a miniscule (if any) current performance reduction in favour of developing high end talent.

Playing Berg over TT makes sense for now. He's more mature and has better form just now. In a decision between the two, TT didn't win.

But he does have talent and patience is still required.

This year, TT can play in either team and still develop. He can also use the year to further build his body and craft. My rationale is simply that this luxury of development probably won't exist next year after Tex retires. At this point, TT becomes indispensable.

I've posted previously about the utter naivety and foolishness in not believing that practice at lower levels is the foundation of learning. Not just "throw em in the deep end". I can't think of a single example where this is accepted wisdom.

TT will need to play senior football to fully realise his potential but at his age, physique and experience, I'm completely comfortable with a development plan which is patient, nuanced and focussed on the longer career outcome.

 

[Gtowncrow]

I’d say it’s 50-50 RE round 1

Wouldn’t jump to conclusions that Himmelberg plays over TT yet

Hard to see it but what a surprise if true.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Playing Berg over TT makes sense for now. He's more mature and has better form just now. In a decision between the two, TT didn't win.

But he does have talent and patience is still required.

This year, TT can play in either team and still develop. He can also use the year to further build his body and craft. My rationale is simply that this luxury of development probably won't exist next year after Tex retires. At this point, TT becomes indispensable.

I've posted previously about the utter naivety and foolishness in not believing that practice at lower levels is the foundation of learning. Not just "throw em in the deep end". I can't think of a single example where this is accepted wisdom.

TT will need to play senior football to fully realise his potential but at his age, physique and experience, I'm completely comfortable with a development plan which is patient, nuanced and focussed on the longer career outcome.

I’d be finding any excuse to play TT over Himmelberg

Hopefully it’s because he was more competitive on Friday night than prev 2 hit outs … didn’t see it so can’t comment

 

[crow2crow]

mcasey 6, Jones 9, TT 2. Throw in Gooch and Milera and that's a hell of a wasteland of first picks against the wins, being Rachele, Rankine and Fog.

Gooch and mcasey and mchenry fair enough but the others you are way too harsh

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I'm thinking JUH and Sam Darcy are getting a game for the Dogs in round 1 and Logan McDonald for the Swans. Not sure with currentky suspended Mc Andrew. So at this stage, it looks like TT is the only top 5 KPF from his or the next draft that is available for round 1 but not being selected. But it's not just that simple fact that is the primary concern. It's that there's a spot in the structure for a 200cm KPF/ruck chop out and that it's Elliot Himmelberg that is beating him to it.

One thing is for sure TT will never reach a Darcy level

That kid is a freak and most likely even ends up a better player than Daicos in my opinion which is pretty phenomenal given how good Daicos is

Poor old Jase might be 3rd from that draft and he’s going to be super too

 

[FullyBigKPro]

To be fair - this is a make or break year for Himmelburg... been on the list for what feels like ages and is what 24/25? has at least 3 more preseasons than TT.

Not surprised he is playing with a bit more desperation and presence.

 

[Big Dub]

The difference is that every one of those players are locks for round 1 and all of 2023. TT is going to need bad form from EH or injury to get a game. As I said, if it was just Tex and Fog keeping him out, there'd be significantly less to be concerned about. Being kept out by EH is very bad though. But, maybe he was in the 2s to ruck most of the game in the absence of Strachan and he's actually ahead of EH and then all these posts have been a complete waste of time.

Wash your mouth out!

Having uninformed discussions about things we have no control over is why bigfooty exists.

I think TT is going to be fine, but needs to work on attacking the ball in the air and clunking his marks. He, Tex and Easy will share 2 roles in the 1's until one of them plays themselves out of a role (= Easy). Source: nothing.

 

[whattagun07]

Where is Cook at!?

 

[cleanhands]

Where is Cook at!?

He’d be in Mutineer side

 

[George Kramer]

He’d be in Mutineer side

No one misses in Mutineers side

 

[Crow till I die]

yeh, 15 posts in on the subject and it dawned on me that with Strachan out, they may have used the opportunity to give TT more time in the ruck.

Apparently TT rucked a fair bit in the second game and did quite well

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Where is Cook at!?

Last spotted playing on half back

Seemingly miles off it currently

Nank and Dowling would be ahead

 

[Alwaysacrow]

You have to seriously wonder about any coach that reckons pushing him ahead of the ball is a good idea. But we've seen them think having him as the outlet 15m off a forward 50 stoppage is primo too, so we know there's some strange ideas in that group somewhere. Looks like we can add Jones and TT to the list of failed/failing first picks. One can't beat out a recycled/state league players for wing/half back role and the other can't get past Himmelberg. Of the last 8-10 years we've got Fog, who we nearly stuffed up, Milera, on name/experience points only, Rachele and Rankine. This is the foundation of a group that will max out at the bottom half of the 8.

We've done well with later picks and criminally underpaying for Dawson, but you don't genuinely compete for flags without a few elite talents. We might have 2, but at this stage they're both small forwards.

You're calling TT a failed 1st round pick???
Jones perhaps, but TT is still developing and has had some awesome games already so far.
Give him a chance please.

 

[Mutineer]

Apparently TT rucked a fair bit in the second game and did quite well

Against who from the WCE?

Harry Barnett?

Bailey Williams was a late withdrawl from the main game with injury, Nic Nat?

 

[1970crow]

Gooch and mcasey and mchenry fair enough but the others you are way too harsh

Injury has cruelled Milera so far, but reality is that he’s barely returned ahead of fringe quality. Hopefully he lights it up, but he’s not there yet. TT for a pick 2 in his 3rd year not being favoured ahead of Berg is nothing short of a disaster. Assuming it actually happens though. I didn’t list McHenry, I only listed our first picks of the drafts. Pedlar looks the goods at 11 or 12. Dawson for packaged up seconds or whatever is the result of our century so far.

 

[1970crow]

To be fair - this is a make or break year for Himmelburg... been on the list for what feels like ages and is what 24/25? has at least 3 more preseasons than TT.

Not surprised he is playing with a bit more desperation and presence.

And no matter how desperate he is, he shouldn’t be ahead of a 3rd year KPF drafted at 2. His role on the list should be limited to reliable enough depth. Not consigning our highest ever draft pick in their 3rd year to the 2s.

 

[1970crow]

He’d be in Mutineer side

With 30 others from our list and about 15 kids that went undrafted. He’s the only poster I know that can fit 40 odd players into a single 22.

 

[1970crow]

No one misses in Mutineers side

Beat me to it.

 

[George Kramer]

With 30 others from our list and about 15 kids that went undrafted. He’s the only poster I know that can fit 40 odd players into a single 22.

You missed the 15 we delisted already

 

[ams4crows]

Against who from the WCE?

Harry Barnett?

Bailey Williams was a late withdrawl from the main game with injury, Nic Nat?

Did Barnett play? Does anyone know how he went, happy for him to do an apprentice out west and come home when we need him

 

[cleanhands]

With 30 others from our list and about 15 kids that went undrafted. He’s the only poster I know that can fit 40 odd players into a single 22.

You wouldn’t be feeling to good about yourself if you missed out on his side

 

[1970crow]

You're calling TT a failed 1st round pick???
Jones perhaps, but TT is still developing and has had some awesome games already so far.
Give him a chance please.

Read it again, “failed and failing”. Currently TT and Jones are failing. Jones is obvious but TT is a pick 2 in his 3rd year and is currently looking like being kept out of the 22 by himmelberg. It’s not failed yet, but if our coaches see more value in EH than TT in a rebuild, then it’s not looking good at the minute.

 

[BunjiMC]

I'm thinking JUH and Sam Darcy are getting a game for the Dogs in round 1 and Logan McDonald for the Swans. Not sure with currentky suspended Mc Andrew. So at this stage, it looks like TT is the only top 5 KPF from his or the next draft that is available for round 1 but not being selected. But it's not just that simple fact that is the primary concern. It's that there's a spot in the structure for a 200cm KPF/ruck chop out and that it's Elliot Himmelberg that is beating him to it.

JUH - Games 17 / Goals 22
McDonald - Games 22 / Goals 23
Mac Andrew - Games 2/ Goals 0
Darcy - 4 Games / 3 Goals
Jackson - 52 Games / 30 Goals


TT - Games 25 / Goals 26

Seems he is at least average if not a head of the others.....

 

[huludicidal]

he can, but he won't. Milera will be given at least a couple of months to find form.

Let’s be clear.

Parnell is a 100% chance of being in the starting 22 in Rd 1. There is no universe in which he isn’t playing.

Milera is a 70% chance. There’s certainly a chance he’s left out, or starts as the sub.

This means they probably both play. But Milera starting and Parnell not starting = 0% chance.