Prediction ROUND 1 2023 - Pick your best team

[Jeffcrowe]

Let’s be clear.

Parnell is a 100% chance of being in the starting 22 in Rd 1. There is no universe in which he isn’t playing.

Milera is a 70% chance. There’s certainly a chance he’s left out, or starts as the sub.

This means they probably both play. But Milera starting and Parnell not starting = 0% chance.

Agree with this

Mutineer ok it’s time , I want to see your side too . Let’s go

 

[1970crow]

JUH - Games 17 / Goals 22
McDonald - Games 22 / Goals 23
Mac Andrew - Games 2/ Goals 0
Darcy - 4 Games / 3 Goals
Jackson - 52 Games / 30 Goals


TT - Games 25 / Goals 26

Seems he is at least average if not a head of the others.....

he's not ahead of Elliot Himmelberg. And all those others are certain round 1 selections, except the suspended Mac Andrew. And note that he and Darcy are from the draft the year after TT.

 

[1970crow]

Let’s be clear.

Parnell is a 100% chance of being in the starting 22 in Rd 1. There is no universe in which he isn’t playing.

Milera is a 70% chance. There’s certainly a chance he’s left out, or starts as the sub.

This means they probably both play. But Milera starting and Parnell not starting = 0% chance.

Doubtful, Milera is most likely ahead of Parnell.

 

[BunjiMC]

he's not ahead of Elliot Himmelberg. And all those others are certain round 1 selections, except the suspended Mac Andrew. And note that he and Darcy are from the draft the year after TT.

So you are only looking at the next 1 game and not the last 30....?

 

[Mostyn]

Ya gotta pump the breaks on over-reacting on TT. He is not even 21 yet. He is a 201cm bean pole. To even consider him "Failing" because he isn't a walk up start at this stage is laughable.

Of the 60 players taken in his draft, only 8 of them have played more AFL games than him across his first two seasons (I didn't count non-AFL player Rowe).

Plenty of time before TT becomes a concern.

Agreed. Ruckmen and key talls don't show what they can do until 22, minimum.

 

[Crow till I die]

Against who from the WCE?

Harry Barnett?

Bailey Williams was a late withdrawl from the main game with injury, Nic Nat?

Not sure. You can read here

Match report: Crows dominant in reserves hit-out

A comfortable 56-point win after the main game

www.afc.com.au

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I'm thinking JUH and Sam Darcy are getting a game for the Dogs in round 1 and Logan McDonald for the Swans. Not sure with currentky suspended Mc Andrew. So at this stage, it looks like TT is the only top 5 KPF from his or the next draft that is available for round 1 but not being selected. But it's not just that simple fact that is the primary concern. It's that there's a spot in the structure for a 200cm KPF/ruck chop out and that it's Elliot Himmelberg that is beating him to it.

Didn’t Himmelberg do this last year? Teased with preseason form then fell in a hole?

Do we have our new DMac? Preseason specialist?

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Read it again, “failed and failing”. Currently TT and Jones are failing. Jones is obvious but TT is a pick 2 in his 3rd year and is currently looking like being kept out of the 22 by himmelberg. It’s not failed yet, but if our coaches see more value in EH than TT in a rebuild, then it’s not looking good at the minute.

Jones is certainly failing, unfortunately and I think he will be a bust, but TT is not failing.
He's done a lot since his debut, something that can't be said about Jones. TT's pre season was a little underwhelming but I wouldn't be too concerned about that.

 

[1970crow]

So you are only looking at the next 1 game and not the last 30....?

yes, that is exactly the premise, I've been really clear and open about that. As it stands right now, with EH preferred over TT, pick 2 is a massive overpay. It's not failed yet, but right now, it's not looking good. And the only relevance of those past games is that they're not getting him selected ahead of a fringe performer like EH.

 

[1970crow]

Agreed. Ruckmen and key talls don't show what they can do until 22, minimum.

sure, but the high picked KPFs aren't playing 2s behind a player like EH in their 3rd year either.

 

[1970crow]

Didn’t Himmelberg do this last year? Teased with preseason form then fell in a hole?

Do we have our new DMac? Preseason specialist?

was it Billy last year or was that the year before?

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

yes, that is exactly the premise, I've been really clear and open about that. As it stands right now, with EH preferred over TT, pick 2 is a massive overpay. It's not failed yet, but right now, it's not looking good. And the only relevance of those past games is that they're not getting him selected ahead of a fringe performer like EH.

Wtf?

He’s 20 years old ffs. Calm the farm.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

was it Billy last year or was that the year before?

You’re right, Billy was good preseason too.

TT needs to go do those confidence building courses that Fog did.

 

[1970crow]

Jones is certainly failing, unfortunately and I think he will be a bust, but TT is not failing.
He's done a lot since his debut, something that can't be said about Jones. TT's pre season was a little underwhelming but I wouldn't be too concerned about that.

I honestly can't see how he doesn't get selected ahead of Berg for round 1. As you said, he's shown plenty enough in his 20 odd games to date. Another preseason and he should be progressing very strongly this year. But if we played an As and Bs v Eagles, then he's going to have to wait for injury or Berg to play badly. And before anyone says that it's a given that Berg's form will warrant dropping so TT will get plenty of opportunity, that's the exact point that I'm making. It looks like a guy that we know can't hold their form over a season is preferred ahead of a pick 2 starting their 3rd year in a rebuilding side. I sure hope it's not correct and TT was only playing 2s to get lots of ruck minutes.

 

[cleanhands]

Wtf?

He’s 20 years old ffs. Calm the farm.

Closer to 21

 

[1970crow]

Wtf?

He’s 20 years old ffs. Calm the farm.

Being beaten for KPF/ruck chopout role by fringe player Elliot Himmelberg. No other KPF from his draft class is currently behind a fringe performer like EH. They're first choice players for the Swans and Dogs. If you think it's normal for a pick 2 to be playing 2s in their third year with their exact position being played by a very average performer, then I'm sure you can point me in their direction.

 

[cleanhands]

Being beaten for KPF/ruck chopout role by fringe player Elliot Himmelberg. No other KPF from his draft class is currently behind a fringe performer like EH. They're first choice players for the Swans and Dogs. If you think it's normal for a pick 2 to be playing 2s in their third year with their exact position being played by a very average performer, then I'm sure you can point me in their direction.

A lot on here get very protective of RT

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Being beaten for KPF/ruck chopout role by fringe player Elliot Himmelberg. No other KPF from his draft class is currently behind a fringe performer like EH. They're first choice players for the Swans and Dogs. If you think it's normal for a pick 2 to be playing 2s in their third year with their exact position being played by a very average performer, then I'm sure you can point me in their direction.

No. This one is on the coaches.

They’ve clearly been seduced by Himms preseason.

They need to wake up and realise that after 6/7 years on the list, it’s time to move on.

 

[1970crow]

A lot on here get very protective of RT

if they weren't so blinded, they'd see the actual point being made. I'm a massive wrap for the kid and it'll be an outrage if he's playing 2s if Berg isn't there with him.

 

[1970crow]

No. This one is on the coaches.

They’ve clearly been seduced by Himms preseason.

They need to wake up and realise that after 6/7 years on the list, it’s time to move on.

aha, so we are actually in furious agreement.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Being beaten for KPF/ruck chopout role by fringe player Elliot Himmelberg. No other KPF from his draft class is currently behind a fringe performer like EH. They're first choice players for the Swans and Dogs. If you think it's normal for a pick 2 to be playing 2s in their third year with their exact position being played by a very average performer, then I'm sure you can point me in their direction.

Don't forget we now have a very talented forward line. Competition is going to be very tough barring injury. It won't hurt any of those hopefuls to have to fight for a spot in the 2's. I'd love Himmelburg to come on too but I have my doubts.
TT I'm not worried about. I think he just needs to believe in himself as in the way Fog has. He'll get there.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

aha, so we are actually in furious agreement.

Perhaps. There is no better opportunity to get games into TT than whilst both Tex is there and Fog is emerging.

 

[whattagun07]

Let’s be clear.

Parnell is a 100% chance of being in the starting 22 in Rd 1. There is no universe in which he isn’t playing.

Milera is a 70% chance. There’s certainly a chance he’s left out, or starts as the sub.

This means they probably both play. But Milera starting and Parnell not starting = 0% chance.

I get serious PTSD flashbacks to Trigg era when I read or hear 'lets be clear'

That was his catch cry with everything. Perhaps 'lets be absolutely clear on this'

 

[crow2crow]

Injury has cruelled Milera so far, but reality is that he’s barely returned ahead of fringe quality. Hopefully he lights it up, but he’s not there yet. TT for a pick 2 in his 3rd year not being favoured ahead of Berg is nothing short of a disaster. Assuming it actually happens though. I didn’t list McHenry, I only listed our first picks of the drafts. Pedlar looks the goods at 11 or 12. Dawson for packaged up seconds or whatever is the result of our century so far.

Milera has already shown more than pedlar although might not hit the heights of pedlar

TT is just time we all know that for tall KPF/Ruck

Jones might still make it - its 50/50 for me

 

[Burtonsgottago]

Milera has already shown more than pedlar although might not hit the heights of pedlar

TT is just time we all know that for tall KPF/Ruck

Jones might still make it - its 50/50 for me

Jones does not have a key attribute, I don’t think he’ll make it.