Prediction Round 1, 2025: Starting 23

[Grahame]

Seems like it's taken forever, but Flynn over Bailey as first ruck seems to be finally happening.

Writing was on the wall for that as soon as Flynn got signed.

Which leaves Williams set for his first WAFL stint since 2022. Unless our MC is totally blind to how bad he is as a forward. Certainly hope that's not the case.

Jilliams is so far ahead of him as FWD/RCK backup to Flynn it's not even funny. That's obvious. Even though I doubt he'll play round 1, Archer Reid is probably also ahead of Bailey for this role now as well. At least he's got some forward craft to his game, despite his poor goal kicking.

I’ve said before I can’t help thinking BWill has been in the wrong place at the wrong time. A fresh start at a new club might do wonders for him.

He is big, athletic and has a go but we’ve asked him to chop and change in the ruck or forward. He may well be better suited to a KP role IF he can train there from day one.

A bit like Culley I think many respect his effort but not his output.

 

[WCErevival]

Is JWilliams out of favour due to his lack of athleticism I wonder? He was progressing last year but his output was still relatively low. Maybe mini doesn't like him. If AReid has gone past him in the pecking order it sort of ends his career at WCE doesn't it?

 

[Keys]

It may or may not be the case but it felt like yesterday was an audition for our R1 side. The line up settled on was :

Back 6: McGovern, Edwards, Ginbey, Hough, Allan, Baker
CBD: Flynn, Reid, Duggan, Graham
Wings: Hunt, Hutchinson
Front 6: Waterman, Reid, Ryan, Owies, Brockman, Long
I/C: BWilliams, Kelly, Cole, Cripps
Sub: Dewar

I feel the 22 had one forward too many and was a mid short

What changes then is McQualter likely to make/consider for R1?

Obviously, Allen (wedding) and Hewett (soreness) would be expected to come in leaving Yeo who’s still a few weeks away as the only best 22 player unavailable for R1 at this stage

Allen replaces Williams

Hewett (a mid) replaces a forward for better team balance, but who? Cripps was the least effective of the small/medium forwards but does seniority give him the nod over Long who started brightly before fading after half time. I suspect Long will be the unlucky one

With those two changes to the 23, I’d play Hewett as the sub so Dewar can play a full game and allow Hutchinson to have more CBD attendances. It also eases Hewett back in to AFL football after such a long lay off

Gives us :

Backs - McGovern, Edwards, Ginbey, Hough, Baker, Allan, Cole
Ruck - Flynn
Mids - Kelly, Reid, Duggan, Graham, Hutchinson, Hunt, Dewar
Forwards - Allen, Waterman, Reid, Ryan, Cripps, Owies, Brockman
Sub - Hewett

Questions
1) Does Maric come in to replace either Allan or Cole?
2) Has Flynn done enough to win the ruck battle with Williams?
3) Archer Reid or Jack Williams as backup ruck?
4) Does Cripps have enough carry over credits to hold out Long?
5) There’s already four unlucky omissions in the above but can someone else press their case in the next 2 weeks? Petruccelle, Johnston, Gross, Hall, Grego, Shanahan or Brock are all an outside chance but unlikely

Genuine competition for spots can only be a good thing and I’m scratching my head at who comes out when Yeo returns (Acknowledging that it’s almost inevitable that there’ll be an injury between now and then as it’s a reality in the AFL)

 

[Grahame]

Is JWilliams out of favour due to his lack of athleticism I wonder? He was progressing last year but his output was still relatively low. Maybe mini doesn't like him. If AReid has gone past him in the pecking order it sort of ends his career at WCE doesn't it?

Yes strange. Can’t believe JWill was in his strip but didn’t get a minute (same for Maric). I’d have thought that was a bit embarrassing (deliberately maybe?).

AReid (and Allan) may be the the future but surely he (they) only played yesterday for experience? Or maybe it was to put a rocket up JWill (and Maric)?

AFL players need strength and a tank - so it’ll be surprising if any of this year’s draft can make it in R1. I guess we’ll know whenever our season starts.

 

[garlic munchers]

Is JWilliams out of favour due to his lack of athleticism I wonder? He was progressing last year but his output was still relatively low. Maybe mini doesn't like him. If AReid has gone past him in the pecking order it sort of ends his career at WCE doesn't it?

It’s such a WC thing to run young KPF’s in the ruck and wonder why they are producing middling stats and are sore and banged up.

Genuinely believe Simmo screwed the long term fitness of Allen by how is was used, cringed with some of the ruck contests he was sent to as skinny kid.

Leave JW as a 3rd tall and he will become a solid AFL player.

 

[Dark Sharks]

If Jilliams is out of favour after kicking 16 goals last year and being our most improved young KPP it says more about the club than it does about him.

Really hasn't put a fut wrong with his development. Very likable and coachable player IMO.


I don't buy into him being out of favour at all, although i can't explain why he wasn't playing yesterday. A.Reid has a lot more proving himself at WAFL level to do before he overtakes what Jilliams has done at AFL level. So yeah, odd.

Both Reid and Bailey should be gone from yesterdays team IMO. Allen back in and Jilliams back in is much more solid.



2 more weeks of speculation

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Genuinely believe Simmo screwed the long term fitness of Allen by how is was used, cringed with some of the ruck contests he was sent to as skinny kid.
.

I’m so sick of this argument.

Allen has been injury prone from the start. Missed 2019 finals series with injury/soreness and wasn’t ****ing muck in 2019 cos we had Hickey/Vardy spud combination in there.

In 2021 he hurt his shoulder from landing in marking contest in F50 in dogs game and then again in pies game while playing as a forward. Needed shoulder surgery at end of the year.

Was concussed in 2021 against Essendon flying for a mark and landing. Playing as a forward.

Missed 2022 because of a hot spot.

Injury in 2024 was related to his ankle (vaguely remember something to do with a knee).

Oscar played about 30 games as 2nd ruck through 2020-21. In his 3rd-4th season.

That’s not the reason he has been injury prone. Even he has attributed it to landing in marking contests (shoulder) not because simmo has him play 20% ruck for a couple of seasons.

 

[Keys]

If Jilliams is out of favour after kicking 16 goals last year and being our most improved young KPP it says more about the club than it does about him.

Really hasn't put a fut wrong with his development. Very likable and coachable player IMO.


I don't buy into him being out of favour at all, although i can't explain why he wasn't playing yesterday. A.Reid has a lot more proving himself at WAFL level to do before he overtakes what Jilliams has done at AFL level. So yeah, odd.

Both Reid and Bailey should be gone from yesterdays team IMO. Allen back in and Jilliams back in is much more solid.



2 more weeks of speculation

For whatever reason, Jack hasn’t progressed during preseason as well as I’d hoped.

I’m not sure Reid has done enough to displace him in the side but the gap between the two is negligible and far smaller than it was 3 months ago

 

[CountryLad]

For whatever reason, Jack hasn’t progressed during preseason as well as I’d hoped.

I’m not sure Reid has done enough to displace him in the side but the gap between the two is negligible and far smaller than it was 3 months ago

Simply guessing but I think it would be to do with upside in Reid.

He’s far more athletic than any of our talls and still has some size to add to his frame.

Maybe it’s simply why not get games and invest time into the player they see as the better long term prospect.

 

[Dark Sharks]

For whatever reason, Jack hasn’t progressed during preseason as well as I’d hoped.

I’m not sure Reid has done enough to displace him in the side but the gap between the two is negligible and far smaller than it was 3 months ago

How'd you come up with that opinion? Based of what, match sim and training viewings? I thought i recall you saying his body shape was looking good at one point, stripped more puppy fat off etc etc.

Pretty disappointing, looked like he was well and truly on the upwards trajectory last year. I'd be pretty bummed if he misses round 1 after being such a shining light in 2024.

Ditto Maric tbh.

 

[Monocle]

I’m so sick of this argument.

If you don't see the validity of this argument, then I would suggest that you don't understand the nuances and dangers of exposing young tall's into the most combative and physical demanding position in the game ... Ruck....before their bodies have matured and stopped growing.

Allen has been injury prone from the start.

Kinda highlights why he should have never been put into the ruck in the first place.
Put an injury prone kid into the ruck early in his career ...... surprise, surprise ... he gets injured again.

 

[wce4premiership]

That’s not the reason he has been injury prone. Even he has attributed it to landing in marking contests (shoulder) not because simmo has him play 20% ruck for a couple of seasons.

This has always been an annoyance of mine in his earlier years. He would either mark it or he'd be on the ground. Players like JK and Darling would often land on their feet and be able to impact the following play even during big marking attempts where they get buffeted around.

I think he's improved that aspect a lot though since his early years though.

 

[AnyDanger]

Mini has previously said something along the lines everybody starts with a clean slate and has to prove themselves. Everyone who has spoken publicly has mentioned how impressive Archer has been so it looks like that will be rewarded for rd1. I think he'll quickly discover that Jwiiliams is more advanced and I predict that spot will be his inside the first month.

I fear for our midfield a bit if we're running duggan and graham at the same time, I think you can only afford one of those guys in there at once. The more midfield time we can get hewett this year the better.

 

[jdisc]

Think it's a bit early to be melting over JWill, if he really is excluded R1 and he's as good as we think he is, he will make his case in the WAFL and find himself in the 22 in no time

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

If you don't see the validity of this argument, then I would suggest that you don't understand the nuances and dangers of exposing young tall's into the most combative and physical demanding position in the game ... Ruck....before their bodies have matured and stopped growing.




Kinda highlights why he should have never been put into the ruck in the first place.
Put an injury prone kid into the ruck early in his career ...... surprise, surprise ... he gets injured again.

Yawn… talls across the competition take ruck contests in years 3-4 and don’t spend seasons on the sidelines and develop degenerative knee conditions, yet a small amount of people in here attribute Oscar doing a very small amount of work in the ruck for being the reason he’s inured now.

Van Rooyen rucks, Cadman rucks, Jackson has rucked against AFL bodies since he was 19 , and is undersized.

Those guys don’t miss seasons due to injuries.

The sport is demanding, and some guys just aren’t up to the demands of AFL footy. If your body isn’t up to it (and it appears Oscar’s isn’t), that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

Think some blokes in here need to put their big boy pants on re: Oscar instead of blaming Simmo for Oscar’s shortcomings.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

This has always been an annoyance of mine in his earlier years. He would either mark it or he'd be on the ground. Players like JK and Darling would often land on their feet and be able to impact the following play even during big marking attempts where they get buffeted around.

I think he's improved that aspect a lot though since his early years though.

The amount of times Oscar has launched frkm 3 blokes deep and landed on his head/shoulder and looked like he’s done a serious injury is too many to count.

Bloke throws himself around. He has even spoken about this and needing to learn how to land.

 

[Keys]

How'd you come up with that opinion? Based of what, match sim and training viewings? I thought i recall you saying his body shape was looking good at one point, stripped more puppy fat off etc etc.

Pretty disappointing, looked like he was well and truly on the upwards trajectory last year. I'd be pretty bummed if he misses round 1 after being such a shining light in 2024.

Ditto Maric tbh.

I made it up

Yeah based off watching the preseason- training/match sims etc

And I did say Williams looked good - that was at either the first or second session I attended back in November

Which is why I posted he hasn’t come on as well as I’d hoped. Has struggled to impact when playing - to be fair he’s usually been in the B team which probably hasn’t helped

Just my observation

 

[sharps24]

The amount of times Oscar has launched frkm 3 blokes deep and landed on his head/shoulder and looked like he’s done a serious injury is too many to count.

Bloke throws himself around. He has even spoken about this and needing to learn how to land.

Truth. Was always clear to me from the way he plays he'd spend more of his career on the sidelines than on the ground and is just another of the many reasons why we should either be unloading him while his price is high or moving him to defence where he could be an excellent fullback and greatly reduce the self inflicted injuries that come from his marking attempts.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

For whatever reason, Jack hasn’t progressed during preseason as well as I’d hoped.

I’m not sure Reid has done enough to displace him in the side but the gap between the two is negligible and far smaller than it was 3 months ago

Re-watching the game yesterday with a focus on Archer and his game is far more impressive than what I thought on first watch. He went into the ruck in the 2nd quarter and really stemmed some of the influence Xerri was having on the game and a lot of our goals started with clearance work out of the middle off the back of Reid.

He took a good contested mark opposed to Comben, and another play where he wasn't able to complete the mark but smartly tapped it to Waterman for a short on goal (should have been a goal but Waterman kicks across the face for a point).

The two marks he's took late while cramping were smart too. They look basic but his leading patterns in both show he is a natural forward, one where he leads towards space for the ball carrier at the right time off of a quick play from our back half and the other was where he doubled back and left Comben in his dust.

If Mini is really favouring Reid over Jack Williams, a closer look at yesterday's game gives good indication why.

I thought he played really well for a 19 year old KPF/Ruck.

 

[Monocle]

Yawn… talls across the competition take ruck contests in years 3-4 and don’t spend seasons on the sidelines and develop degenerative knee conditions, yet a small amount of people in here attribute Oscar doing a very small amount of work in the ruck for being the reason he’s inured now.

Van Rooyen rucks, Cadman rucks, Jackson has rucked against AFL bodies since he was 19 , and is undersized.

Those guys don’t miss seasons due to injuries.

The sport is demanding, and some guys just aren’t up to the demands of AFL footy. If your body isn’t up to it (and it appears Oscar’s isn’t), that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

Think some blokes in here need to put their big boy pants on re: Oscar instead of blaming Simmo for Oscar’s shortcomings.

Ignorance is bliss.

As part of my AFL Coaching Accreditation Course, at AFL house in Melbourne, it was was covered in a cautionary overview, that addressed, specific injury susceptibility in young players, that were still growing and ruck contest's were highlighted as a major watch point.

I will take the research and advise of the AFL Doctors, Physiotherapist's, Strength and Conditioning Specialists as being more informed and knowledgable that most outside the Industry.

Not surprisingly its why most rucks of quality don't usually blossom until after they turn 25 or 26, after carefully managed loads over successive years.

At the course two players were highlighted in particular, as having their careers negatively impacted, by having been rucked before their core muscle frame had adequately been developed and tendons and ligaments were reinforced by mature muscle growth and tone.
It was commented that had the research and findings, that are available today, been available when theses two played, then their workloads and developmental programs would have been managed much differently.

The two players were: Josh Fraser and Matthew Kreuzer



NN himself has spoken that an afternoon in the ruck at AFL is like an afternoon loading fridges on and off trucks and then having to carry them up stairs time after time, after time ...... simply put if you are not strong enough, you get hurt.

 

[Grahame]

Truth. Was always clear to me from the way he plays he'd spend more of his career on the sidelines than on the ground and is just another of the many reasons why we should either be unloading him while his price is high or moving him to defence where he could be an excellent fullback and greatly reduce the self inflicted injuries that come from his marking attempts.

Just an observation, I seem to remember one reason Ashley McIntosh went to defence was because he was in danger of seriously injuring himself going for marks. And what a great move.

 

[navi_]

Ignorance is bliss.

As part of my AFL Coaching Accreditation Course, at AFL house in Melbourne, it was was covered in a cautionary overview, that addressed, specific injury susceptibility in young players, that were still growing and ruck contest's were highlighted as a major watch point.

I will take the research and advise of the AFL Doctors, Physiotherapist's, Strength and Conditioning Specialists as being more informed and knowledgable that most outside the Industry.

Not surprisingly its why most rucks of quality don't usually blossom until after they turn 25 or 26, after carefully managed loads over successive years.

At the course two players were highlighted in particular, as having their careers negatively impacted, by having been rucked before their core muscle frame had adequately been developed and tendons and ligaments were reinforced by mature muscle growth and tone.
It was commented that had the research and findings, that are available today, been available when theses two played, then their workloads and developmental programs would have been managed much differently.

The two players were: Josh Fraser and Matthew Kreuzer

View attachment 2238682 View attachment 2238683

NN himself has spoken that an afternoon in the ruck at AFL is like an afternoon loading fridges on and off trucks and then having to carry them up stairs time after time, after time ...... simply put if you are not strong enough, you get hurt.

Yeah all good and well but those blokes were ruck 1 at their club for 22 games a year - Oscar was pinch hitting.

Fraser and Kreuzer also battled knee injuries which makes a lot more sense to me. Oscars problems are his shoulders.

I agree with your overall point/sentiment but these examples suck.

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Ignorance is bliss.

As part of my AFL Coaching Accreditation Course, at AFL house in Melbourne, it was was covered in a cautionary overview, that addressed, specific injury susceptibility in young players, that were still growing and ruck contest's were highlighted as a major watch point.

I will take the research and advise of the AFL Doctors, Physiotherapist's, Strength and Conditioning Specialists as being more informed and knowledgable that most outside the Industry.

Not surprisingly its why most rucks of quality don't usually blossom until after they turn 25 or 26, after carefully managed loads over successive years.

At the course two players were highlighted in particular, as having their careers negatively impacted, by having been rucked before their core muscle frame had adequately been developed and tendons and ligaments were reinforced by mature muscle growth and tone.
It was commented that had the research and findings, that are available today, been available when theses two played, then their workloads and developmental programs would have been managed much differently.

The two players were: Josh Fraser and Matthew Kreuzer

View attachment 2238682 View attachment 2238683

NN himself has spoken that an afternoon in the ruck at AFL is like an afternoon loading fridges on and off trucks and then having to carry them up stairs time after time, after time ...... simply put if you are not strong enough, you get hurt.

I guess Simmo (and all the other AFL coaches) wasn't paying attention that day..... Ooopsies!

On a more serious note - the issue with your example is you've used two guys who were specialist rucks, who played predominantly ruck for their entire careers... (And both had long careers mind you). While playing in the ruck was certainly demanding for both, they were still among the very elite in the game who played 200 (or close to) games in AFL.


Oscar, on the other hand, was playing ruck for about 20 ruck contests per game, for a period of about 40 games from 2020-21 when he was in his 3rd-4th year, something talls across the competition do. Not to mention there are very plausible explanations for Oscars injuries that have nothing to do with spending a small amount of time in the ruck, over a small period of his career.

The examples you provided are not analogous to what we did with Oscar in any shape or form. In fact they are terrible argument.

I really think you're missing a bit of perspective here.

 

[Grahame]

Backs: HEd, Gov, Hough, Baker, Ginbey, Maric, Cole, Duggan
Mids: Hunt (wing), Dewar (wing), Flynn, Hutchinson, Yeo, Reid, Hewett, Graham
Forwards: Oscar, JW, JWill, Ryan, Long, Owies, Brockman, Kelly

3 x 8 so one to be sub. Brockman? Sub might depend on 'team balance' or opposition matchups.

JWill second ruck.
Duggan and Kelly could be mids (as others might play elsewhere).
Not sure if Ginbey is KPD#3, what does that mean for Maric? But I do see him as best 24.
Don't think the latest draftees will have the strength or tank for R1 - but before R23?
Most prominent to miss out: Cripps, Bazzo, Cripps, BWill, Petro.

PS: assuming no injuries.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

It may or may not be the case but it felt like yesterday was an audition for our R1 side. The line up settled on was :

Back 6: McGovern, Edwards, Ginbey, Hough, Allan, Baker
CBD: Flynn, Reid, Duggan, Graham
Wings: Hunt, Hutchinson
Front 6: Waterman, Reid, Ryan, Owies, Brockman, Long
I/C: BWilliams, Kelly, Cole, Cripps
Sub: Dewar

I feel the 22 had one forward too many and was a mid short

What changes then is McQualter likely to make/consider for R1?

Obviously, Allen (wedding) and Hewett (soreness) would be expected to come in leaving Yeo who’s still a few weeks away as the only best 22 player unavailable for R1 at this stage

Allen replaces Williams

Hewett (a mid) replaces a forward for better team balance, but who? Cripps was the least effective of the small/medium forwards but does seniority give him the nod over Long who started brightly before fading after half time. I suspect Long will be the unlucky one

With those two changes to the 23, I’d play Hewett as the sub so Dewar can play a full game and allow Hutchinson to have more CBD attendances. It also eases Hewett back in to AFL football after such a long lay off

Gives us :

Backs - McGovern, Edwards, Ginbey, Hough, Baker, Allan, Cole
Ruck - Flynn
Mids - Kelly, Reid, Duggan, Graham, Hutchinson, Hunt, Dewar
Forwards - Allen, Waterman, Reid, Ryan, Cripps, Owies, Brockman
Sub - Hewett

Questions
1) Does Maric come in to replace either Allan or Cole?
2) Has Flynn done enough to win the ruck battle with Williams?
3) Archer Reid or Jack Williams as backup ruck?
4) Does Cripps have enough carry over credits to hold out Long?
5) There’s already four unlucky omissions in the above but can someone else press their case in the next 2 weeks? Petruccelle, Johnston, Gross, Hall, Grego, Shanahan or Brock are all an outside chance but unlikely

Genuine competition for spots can only be a good thing and I’m scratching my head at who comes out when Yeo returns (Acknowledging that it’s almost inevitable that there’ll be an injury between now and then as it’s a reality in the AFL)

I think Hewitt comes in for Long
I am a Long fan but yesterday North was able to run the ball away from him too easy.
I don't think he laid a tackle in that game
Hewitt gives the side better balance and another mid option
I believe Cole and Cripps get a game on seniority, don't like it but it is what it is
Also feel McQualter like to have experience mixed with youth
Agree on Allen for B Williams
Defence would like a third tall either a Maric or a Brock
It is just good there is a lot of good options not getting a game