Preview Round 1: Essendon vs Hawthorne, Docklands, Saturday 20/03/21 @ 7:25 PM

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

Essendon: The Bombers were solid in their two pre-season hit outs but unfortunately went down in both tightly, the second on only losing to one of the pre-season favourites in Geelong by 5 points. Cale Hooker was the standout forward with 4 goals whilst Zach Merrett was dominant through the middle, collecting 37 touches, Darcy Parish also excellent in there with 32 of his own.

Hawthorne: The Hawks had two wins in their pre-season hit outs, beating a weak North Melbourne outfit by a comfortable 39 point margin in the second one. Jacob Koschitzky was impressive forward of centre, kicking six goals and is firming for a round 1 debut against the Dons, with Tyler Brockman also impressing with 3 goals. New trecruit Tom Phillips had 30 disposals through the middle, will be one to watch


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 3-2 Hawthorne


Form Guide (including pre-season)

Essendon: 0-2
Hawthorne 2-0


Sportsbet odds (unavailable)

Essendon: $2.26
Hawthorne: $1.62
Line: 7.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Essendon vs Hawthorne

FB: Jayden Laverde - James Stewart - Nick Hind
FF: Tim O'Brien - Jacob Koschitzke - Luke Breust
HB: Jordan Ridley - Aaron Francis - Ned Cahill
HF: Tyler Brockman - Mitchell Lewis - Dylan Moore
MF: Kyle Langford - Andrew McGrath - Zachary Merrett
MF: Tom Phillips - James Worpel - Harry Morrison
HF: Will Snelling - Harrison Jones - Alec Waterman
HB: Changkuath Jiath - Sam Frost - Damon Greaves
FF: Peter Wright - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Jarman Impey - Kyle Hartigan - Blake Hardwick
OB: Sam Draper - Jye Caldwell - Dylan Shiel
OB: Ben McEvoy - Jaeger O'Meara - Liam Shiels
IC: Nikolas Cox - Darcy Parish - Devon Smith - Dyson Heppell
IC: Connor Downie - Jonathon Ceglar - Will Day - Shaun Burgoyne


Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line

Hawthorne had one of the worst back line's last season, conceding a goal 24.1% of the time it entered defensive 50. Essendon struggled to kick goals once it entered their forward 50, kicking a goal just 20.1% of the time it entered their forward 50 last season. Essendon's new-look forward line may be able to change that, adding key forward/ruck Peter Wright in there and Alec Waterman as a small, taking a lot of pressure off Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. The trio will likely get the match ups of Kyle Hartigan, Changkuath Jiath and Blake Hardwick respectively, leving Sam Frost to Cale Hooker and a smaller defender like Damon Greaves to probable debutant Harrison Jones, who impressed a lot during pre-season.


Midfield/rucks battle

This is where it will be truly be settled. Neither side were fantastic on the inside, Essendon being 7th for clearance differential and 15th for contested possession differential last season but Hawthorne were arguably the worst at it, being 17th and 18th for the two statistics respectively. Essendon's midfield is better on paper, especially with the injury cloud of Tom Mitchell still hanging over their heads, and the addition of Jye Caldwell on the inside can only help them in regards to clearances, but you can't ignore the quality of players like Jaeger O'Meara and James Worpel through there. On the outside of the contest, Tom Phillips is a big addition for the Hawks and Harry Morrison has played really well on the wing in pre-season, but Kyle Langford and Zach Merrett were dominant in this regard in their contest last year, whilst probable debutants Nikolas Cox and Connor Downie round it out for them. Rucks wise, Sam Draper will have his hands full with Hawthorne playing two rucks in new captain Ben McEvoy and Jonathon Ceglar, but last season showed how good he could become, and will be keen to show it here.


Essendon defence vs Hawthorne forward line

Essendon last year conceded a goal 23.3% of the time it entered their defensive fifty, down in the bottom 4 of the AFL. Hawthorne were okay in this department last season, kicking a goal 22.1% of the time it entered their forward 50. The main match-up will be James Stewart going up against the man who kicked 6 goals in the second pre-season match in Jacob Koschitzke, but Essendon may struggle to also contain Hawthorne's other tall in Lewis Mitchell with Aaron Francis his most likely opponent giving away a couple of inches. Luke Breust always gives Essendon trouble, but Nick Hind has shown impressive discipline in defence too and will most likely get first crack at him, whilst Ned Cahill could play on the impressive Tyler Brockman, a recent addition to Hawthorne's list.


X-Factor Player

Damon Greaves came on in the second half of the pre-season game and had 18 disposals in the second half. Could be an important player for the Hawks.


Key stat

Essendon: Forward conversion. The Hawks are likely to use an undersized defence here, must be able to convert.

Hawthorne: Clearance differential. If they fail to win this they will struggle to get the win

Tip

* Hawthorne. Bombers by 27
 
Last edited:
Cahill and Waterman look like weak links based on the Geelong practice game.
Possible placeholders for Stringer and Redman.
 

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Duckworth said:
Cahill and Waterman look like weak links based on the Geelong practice game.
Possible placeholders for Stringer and Redman.
Click to expand...

Waterman played in the last quarter only.
 
My team vs Hawthorn (with Stringer unlikely to play):

B: J.Stewart 17 A.Francis 10 J.Laverde 15

HB: N.Hind 19 J.Ridley 14 D.Heppell - C 21

C: K.Langford 4 A.McGrath 1 Z.Merrett 7

HF: D.Smith 5 H.Jones 23 W.Snelling 40

F: A.McDonald-Tipungwuti 43 P.Wright 20 C.Hooker 26

FOLL: S.Draper 2 D.Parish 3 D.Shiel 9

I/C: J.Caldwell 6 M.Guelfi 35 N.Cox 13 A. Waterman 42

I really wanted Perkins to play a full preseason game so that he plays round 1, but they may be easing him into the year.
 
JayJ20 said:
My team vs Hawthorn (with Stringer unlikely to play):

B: J.Stewart 17 A.Francis 10 J.Laverde 15

HB: N.Hind 19 J.Ridley 14 D.Heppell - C 21

C: K.Langford 4 A.McGrath 1 Z.Merrett 7

HF: D.Smith 5 H.Jones 23 W.Snelling 40

F: A.McDonald-Tipungwuti 43 P.Wright 20 C.Hooker 26

FOLL: S.Draper 2 D.Parish 3 D.Shiel 9

I/C: J.Caldwell 6 M.Guelfi 35 N.Cox 13 A. Waterman 42

I really wanted Perkins to play a full preseason game so that he plays round 1, but they may be easing him into the year.
Click to expand...

I’d be very surprised if Waterman gets a game based on one quarter against Blues on a game that was well and truly over. No chance
 
boncer34 said:
I thought Cahill was decent
Click to expand...
Agreed, his poise coming off half back stood out to me.
JayJ20 said:
My team vs Hawthorn (with Stringer unlikely to play):

B: J.Stewart 17 A.Francis 10 J.Laverde 15

HB: N.Hind 19 J.Ridley 14 D.Heppell - C 21

C: K.Langford 4 A.McGrath 1 Z.Merrett 7

HF: D.Smith 5 H.Jones 23 W.Snelling 40

F: A.McDonald-Tipungwuti 43 P.Wright 20 C.Hooker 26

FOLL: S.Draper 2 D.Parish 3 D.Shiel 9

I/C: J.Caldwell 6 M.Guelfi 35 N.Cox 13 A. Waterman 42

I really wanted Perkins to play a full preseason game so that he plays round 1, but they may be easing him into the year.
Click to expand...
I think Cahill gets in ahead of Guelfi but otherwise agree
 
The Dustbin said:
Waterman played in the last quarter only.
Click to expand...
Yeah I know. I'm not sure he's done enough. I was hoping for a backup performance from the Carlton game.

Cahill was OK. Guelfi was among the best in the early stages of the Carlton game and still got dropped. I have Cahill behind Redman (if fit) and also Guelfi.
 

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Honestly I’m not overly fussed with what lineup we roll out with round 1 as long as we don’t decide to fall back on the likes of Gleeson and Cutler when there are options who are younger, better and have more upside available.
 
Confident it will look like:

Laverde Stewart Francis
Heppell Ridley Hind
Langford Parish Merrett
Waterman Jones Smith
Tipungwuti Hooker Wright
Draper Shiel McGrath
Caldwell Ham Cox Cahill
 
I’m thinking The Waterboy will be more like a round 2 or 3 prospect.

Round one v HFC Rutton will probably go similar with the first half lineup against Geelong.

Guelfi must’ve had a niggle to be left total out of selection on Saturday.

Round 2 or 3 for him too depending on how we go with injuries or team selection.

I have a feeling there will be a lot of ins and outs the first half dozen rounds trying to find the best 22
 
DallasCrane316 said:
SEN saying that Stewart’s hamstring injury was more severe than first thought. Could be out for 3-4 weeks.
Click to expand...
Our depth is really getting tested here.

Presumably that means Hooker back, although I'm not sure who steps into the forward line to replace him... Bryan? Eyre?
 
Old Campaigner said:
Our depth is really getting tested here.

Presumably that means Hooker back, although I'm not sure who steps into the forward line to replace him... Bryan? Eyre?
Click to expand...
I suppose if Stringer comes back (doubtful) then Hooker back. s**t luck with Stewart, thought he looked good playing back
 
Old Campaigner said:
Our depth is really getting tested here.

Presumably that means Hooker back, although I'm not sure who steps into the forward line to replace him... Bryan? Eyre?
Click to expand...
Play two talls and 4 medium/smalls. Draper spends time forward
 
Hawks arent that tall up forward and they will be without Gunstan. Start Hooker forward and send him back if needs be. I like the idea of being quick out of defence anyway and rely on Ridley, Francis and Redman/Gleeson to get the job done.
 
Old Campaigner said:
Our depth is really getting tested here.

Presumably that means Hooker back, although I'm not sure who steps into the forward line to replace him... Bryan? Eyre?
Click to expand...
Either BZT in or Hooker back and we go a little bit smaller up forward. Say something like

B Ridley - Hooker - Laverde
HB Heppell - Francis - Hind (Cahill)

HF Smith - Jones - Snelling
F Tippa - Wright - Waterman (resting mids/wings/Draper)
 
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