Preview Round 1: Geelong vs Essendon, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Saturday 19/03/2022 @ 2:10 PM

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eth-dog

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Observations

Geelong:

Essendon: Bombers lost their second pre-season game against St. Kilda, inaccuracy likely costing the win, kicking 9.17 to 12.10. Peter Wright had a strong showing with 3 goals and 17 hit outs, whilst Darcy Parish and Jye Caldwell had strong games in the middle with 25 and 24 disposals respectively, Essendon hoping to see a lot more of the latter this season after missing out on a lot of last year due to a bad hamstring injury.


Head to Head (last 5)

Geelong 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

Geelong: 1W 0L
Essendon: 1W 1L


Possible sides

Geelong vs Essendon

FB: Jack Henry - Mark Blicavs - Tom Stewart
FF: Kaine Baldwin - Peter Wright - Jake Stringer
HB: Mark O'Connor - Sam De Koning - Zach Tuohy
HF: Will Snelling - Harrison Jones - Devon Smith
MF: Mitch Duncan - Cameron Guthrie - Isaac Smith
MF: Kyle Langford - Dylan Shiel - Nick Martin
HF: Max Holmes - Jeremy Cameron - Brad Close
HB: Dyson Heppell - Jayden Laverde - Nick Hind
FF: Tyson Stengle - Tom Hawkins - Esava Ratugolea
FB: Jake Kelly - James Stewart - Jordan Ridley
OB: Rhys Stanley - Patrick Dangerfield - Joel Selwood
OB: Sam Draper - Andrew McGrath - Jye Caldwell
IC: Brandon Parfitt - Zach Guthrie - Sam Menegola - Cooper Stephens
IC: Archie Perkins - Darcy Parish - Zach Merrett - Mason Redman
MS: Shaun Higgins
MS: Matthew Guelfi


Geelong defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon were the second most efficient forward line in the AFL last season, kicking a goal 24.78% of the time it enters their forward 50. Geelong were the second most efficient defence last season, conceding a goal only 20.47% of the time it entered their defensive 50. Kaine Baldwin has shown a lot this pre-season and is looking like a good chance at making his Essendon debut early in the piece with his ability to pull down a contested mark whilst Peter Wright will be looking to build on his 2021 year where he kicked 29 goals, the pairing likely to get attention from Sam De Koning and Mark Blicavs respectively, whilst Zach Guthrie will look to build from his impressive pre-season form against Devon Smith in all likelihood.


Midfield/rucks battle

The engine room is really where this game will be won, and Essendon were big improvers in terms of contested ball in the second half of 2021, moving from 14th to 8th in clearance difference and 15th to 8th in contested possession difference after the bye. Geelong also had a very strong inside core, finishing second for both clearance and contested possession difference in 2021. The key for Essendon will be to limit the effectiveness of Patrick Dangerfield in particular, the former Brownlow Medalist looking a little rusty in pre-season, however his head-to-head clash with Darcy Parish could be one for the ages, whilst Cameron Guthrie may try to limit the effectiveness of Zach Merrett for the Dons. On the wings, Kyle Langford looks to continue his upwards trajectory for the Dons alongside the impressive mature aged recruit Nick Martin against the older but very skilled Mitch Duncan and Isaac Smith. Rucks wise, Sam Draper will look to bash Rhys Stanley up a bit, who in turn will try to catch Draper around the ground a bit more.


Geelong forward line vs Essendon defence

Geelong's forward line was 8th in terms of goals/inside 50 last year, kicking one 22.91% of the time it entered there. Essendon steadily improved in terms of goals per inside 50 as the season's gone on, from being clear cut bottom 2 at the bye to 12th after home and away is finished, conceding a goal 23.53% of the time. Tom Hawkins is obviously the focal point for Geelong, the big man having been one of the best key forwards of the last decade, and has enjoyed playing Essendon quite a bit, Jayden Laverde the most likely match up for him whilst former GWS teammates Jeremy Cameron and James Stewart will probably lock horns, same with former Crows Jake Kelly and Tyson Stengle at this end of the field.


X-Factor Player

Archie Perkins' pre-season was electric, the kid playing a sort of half forward/midfield role at times, his impressive athleticism a standout feature for the Dons


Key stat

Geelong: Scores from turnovers. In 21 out of 23 matches Essendon played last year, the winner of this came out on top.

Essendon: Clearances. A huge chance for the Dons to start aggressively in the midfield against an aging Geelong side.


Tip

Our pre-season form has been patchy, and nobody knows what to expect from either side this year. I think Geelong will win a tight one
 
Some potential decisions going into the round 1 side:
Cutler vs Kelly. Cutler provides a bit more drive, but isn't as good as a defender.
Francis vs Baldwin. Baldwin looks to be getting the early nod. Did some nice things vs St Kilda.
Cox vs Martin: I think Martin might have a bit more of an impact. Although I can see the desire to keep Cox's development to have greater continuity.
 

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Duckworth said:
Some potential decisions going into the round 1 side:
Cutler vs Kelly. Cutler provides a bit more drive, but isn't as good as a defender.
Francis vs Baldwin. Baldwin looks to be getting the early nod. Did some nice things vs St Kilda.
Cox vs Martin: I think Martin might have a bit more of an impact. Although I can see the desire to keep Cox's development to have greater continuity.
Click to expand...
Cutler vs Kelly: I think Kelly frees up our other defenders more and played well in our first match, Cutler might get a run or two off but is otherwise pretty useless.

Francis vs Baldwin: I'm torn on this one, I think on instant impact Francis will be better but 5 or so games into Baldwin and he could get real comfy, He showed enough to earn a spot that's for sure. But I also feel like we should give Francis a solid chance to prove himself too, For most of his career he's been switched around or otherwise injured. He's showed plenty of glimpses of elite footy he just needs to bring it all together and if he can't step up then he just becomes depth and Baldwin comes in.

Cox vs Martin: Whilst Cox looks off compared to last year and Martin hasn't put a foot wrong all off season I really feel like Cox is someone you want to invest games into.

Durham vs Smith: Smith has lost some pace and agility and isn't the tackling machine he use to be, Plus he annoys me.
 
Last edited:
Think could also be Martin vs Guelfi vs Dev Smith. Pick 2 and the one who misses as sub except in the case when its Dev Smith (As i think he will be a terrible sulking sub)

Im picking Francis at all cost. Albeit he is the easiest leave out option for Rutten and the selection team.

Think it should be HJ vs Baldwin.

Fracnis has had an exceptional preseason of work load. HJ hasnt and hasnt really done a whole heap on the games. Was Baldwins 2 goals enough on the last game? Im not so sure
 
Kelly - Stewart - Ridley
McGrath - Laverde - Redman (Hind)
Heppell - Shiel - Langford (N.Cox)
Perkins - HJ - Caldwell
Francis - P.Wright - Snelling (N.Martin)
Draper - Parish - Stringer (Z.Merrett)
Sub: Guelfi

Hind/Kelly over Cutler

N.Martin over Guelfi and Dev Smith

N.Cox over Guelfi

HJ over Baldwin

All very unlucky to miss
 
Cats without Henry, Miers, Menegola, Ceglar and there may have been another or theyre picking them seriously under done

Oh Duncan in a battle

We can even hope Stewarts new born comes on the saturday but i believe its closer ETA than that as hes not playing tomorrow
 
Keystone agony said:
Think could also be Martin vs Guelfi vs Dev Smith. Pick 2 and the one who misses as sub except in the case when its Dev Smith (As i think he will be a terrible sulking sub)

Im picking Francis at all cost. Albeit he is the easiest leave out option for Rutten and the selection team.

Think it should be HJ vs Baldwin.

Fracnis has had an exceptional preseason of work load. HJ hasnt and hasnt really done a whole heap on the games. Was Baldwins 2 goals enough on the last game? Im not so sure
Click to expand...

Whilst it may be true Francis has had a good pre season he’s just not a natural forward or goal kicker. In fact in one per season game Baldwin has equaled Francis’s entire goal tally for 2021 - 2 goals….!! I know who I am picking here…The rest of the team picks itself pretty much - Smith whilst annoying as f***k stays as we just don’t have enough small forward options right now, and like others on here I’d have Martin over Cox. Team;-

Laverde Stewart Redman
Heppell Ridley Hind
McGrath Merrett Langford
Perkins Jones Snelling
2MP Baldwin Smith

Draper Parish Caldwell

Bench: Shiel Kelly Martin Stringer
SUB: Guelfi


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Last edited:
Keystone agony said:
Think could also be Martin vs Guelfi vs Dev Smith. Pick 2 and the one who misses as sub except in the case when its Dev Smith (As i think he will be a terrible sulking sub)

Im picking Francis at all cost. Albeit he is the easiest leave out option for Rutten and the selection team.

Think it should be HJ vs Baldwin.

Fracnis has had an exceptional preseason of work load. HJ hasnt and hasnt really done a whole heap on the games. Was Baldwins 2 goals enough on the last game? Im not so sure
Click to expand...
Unless Francis is injured, for now, he should play ahead of Baldwin simply on his strong preseason form. On competition for spots though, I'd sooner see Jones and Wright stay in the team for their capacity to work up the ground. Baldwin doesn't do this. It won't hurt to make him play VFL for a few weeks, kick some goals and build his athletic capacity, but I think Francis's spot is his to take.
 

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Ambrosia said:
I prefer Cutler to Kelly. He’s a better ball user and can be pushed to a wing if we decide we want to play Heppell back.
Click to expand...
It isn't that simple. Cutler playing forces Ridley into a more defensive role, which Kelly is better at. Cutler is also inferior than Ridley offensively.

Kelly vs Cutler isn't even close to being a debate. It's Kelly every day
 
eth-dog said:
It isn't that simple. Cutler playing forces Ridley into a more defensive role, which Kelly is better at. Cutler is also inferior than Ridley offensively.

Kelly vs Cutler isn't even close to being a debate. It's Kelly every day
Click to expand...
As well, Ridley will be busy trying to intercept mark all night with Geelong's tall forwardline leading everywhere.
 
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