Preview Round 1, Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants, Sat 26th March 2016, 1.40pm, MCG

[Land of the Giants]

OK, General Giant, I have heard the call. Here is the preview for Round 1.

According to the betting markets, we're paying 34.00 to win the flag this year, as opposed to 101.00 for the Demons. For this particular game, we're paying $1.63 as opposed to $2.25 for them, even though it's their home game.

In other words, we're expected to win a game like this, and looking at the respective lists, there's no excuse for us not to. That will be a common refrain this year.

However, Melbourne are not wanting for some serious talent. Jesse Hogan is a standout in the forward line. Our old mate Dom Tyson is in the midfield. He has good company in Angus Brayshaw and ex-Crow Bernie Vince. Ruckman Max Gawn is more than serviceable.

But their backline is regarded as unexceptional. And with the talent we've got up front - even without Jeremy for a few weeks - we shouldn't have anything to fear. Especially having picked up Steve Johnson, in what's already looking like a very shrewd move.

My biggest worry is how Shane Mumford is going to be managed as the season unfolds. I think we should use him sparingly in games like this, and keep him fresh for as long as possible.

So we should open our account with a win on Saturday. As for the margin, I'm usually conservative about things like that, but this time I'll be adventurous, and say Giants by 30 at least.

Over to you General.

 

[Colonial]

Haha thanks mate
Footy is BACK BABY!!!

Gotta say im surprised at the short odds for us.
Even if it was our home game, there is to much talent in the Demons and are missing Jezza. But this is a Melbourne game and only round 1 so makes it even more strange.

I think we can win but will be very close. 6 to 12 points.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Haha thanks mate
Footy is BACK BABY!!!

Gotta say im surprised at the short odds for us.
Even if it was our home game, there is to much talent in the Demons and are missing Jezza. But this is a Melbourne game and only round 1 so makes it even more strange.

I think we can win but will be very close. 6 to 12 points.

I think the short odds being media driven as guys like Gerard Healy have been gushing over us.

We will improve again but we have lost some top line talent losing Treloar and I worry if Patful or Davis (he will he always does) goes down how we can cover and off course Mummy.

Encouragingly Rory Lobb has looked very promising and could be a real goodun whilst Marchbank and Corr do look to have also improved sharply. We really need to re-sign those buggers quick.

I see a close win, Demons are no bunnies anymore and have some really high end young talent.

 

[Danny88]

Agreed they have some super young players

But I'm looking at the age profile. I remember the days when we had super young guys but we didn't have the size or the legs to win games. That might be Melbournes problem this year.... Their young guns aren't quite ripe yet

Still, it should be a good game anyway and I'm backing us to win by 3 goals

 

[_GT_]

One of the things I'll be looking for is better starts consistently (starting the game and at the start of each quarter). These young sides can get a run on early and their confidence rockets (we've seen it with our own boys). We end up playing catchup, and sometimes you can't quite reel in the score (especially in Melbourne's changeable weather and outdoors at the G). It will be good to see us begin to control more games from start to end.

We should win this, but it is no lay down. Two goal win, after Demons get out to a three goal lead early in the game

 

[Tex200]

Backing the Giants here. Thought D's NAB campaign looked better than it was.

They caught Port with experienced players first run and using the 90 rotation cap. Port destroyed them early before predictably running out of gas. Only just got over the Dogs who had 16 first choice players rested, and then were not special in getting past the saints who missed NAB 2 and was the first hit out for a number of players.

I think GWS has had a better prep overall and should sneak past by 2-4 goals.

 

[Giant Pete]

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. You'd think McDonald will match up on Tomlinson. Cameron doesn't normally matchup well on McDonald whereas Tomlinson is basically a carbon copy of him.
Dunn will probably go to Stewart. He is stronger in the one on ones but Stewart is taller and more agile.
Garland will go to Johnson probably, which could work well for us. Jetta to Smith and Palmer will play a defensive role on Salem. Whitfield/Kelly and a couple of others will rotate through there as well.
I see the key being our defensive pressure. If that is of a high standard we have a great chance.
As for the Dee's, they are certainly on the improve. They are starting to get more of a balance between offence and defence. In saying that, I'll be interested to see what their attack looks like under real pressure.
They won all of their NAB games but that doesn't mean a whole lot. Watching their game against the dogs, I thought they should've won easily. I thought their ball use in that game was pretty ordinary... They were lucky the dogs had most of their stars out. Then again, it was only NAB so I'm not going to read into it too much.
I'll be at the game. Looking forward to it.

 

[gee whiz giant]

Wilson, Kelly and Steele are all in fantastic form and here's hoping they carry that into the game.
Wilson could be the key to opening up our run.
Our ol mate Buggy will lock down and negate either Shiel or Ward but Jack Steele is the dark horse and could prosper.
And Kelly could be in for big improve this year.

 

[Giant Pete]

I wonder if they'll give Cogs the run-with on Jones again.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey guys, just wondering why Toby Greene's production and output decreased from 2013-2014, and from 2014-2015? Is it because of his form, or just being played out of position?

If he was played out of position, is he likely to return as a full time midfielder with Treloar's departure?

 

[Giant Strides]

Hey guys, just wondering why Toby Greene's production and output decreased from 2013-2014, and from 2014-2015? Is it because of his form, or just being played out of position?
If he was played out of position, is he likely to return as a full time midfielder with Treloar's departure?

Do you mean decreased from 2012 to 2013, then again 2014 to 2015? Quite startling, really, his disposal stats going 28 to 22, and repeating. In 2013, I'd say it was being played out of position. He seemed to be put into the backline by Sheeds, and he really didn't seem suited to it to me, and it harmed his possession and general play. Plus probably a bit of second year blues and the opposition doing some homework on him after his stellar first year. He then bounced back in 2014. Not entirely sure why he dropped again last year. He was played in the forward line a bit, which would account for some of it, but he still seemed in pretty good form when he was doing the grunt work on the bottom of packs. I suspect that he'll still rotate between inside mid and forward at times (saw that in NAB). Treloar's departure will see him doing the grunt work, but probably more so an opportunity for Jack Steele to showcase his wares.

 

[_GT_]

Hey guys, just wondering why Toby Greene's production and output decreased from 2013-2014, and from 2014-2015? Is it because of his form, or just being played out of position?

If he was played out of position, is he likely to return as a full time midfielder with Treloar's departure?

Toby has definitely been spending more time in the forward line recently. With Stevie J, Palmer and Smith all fit one would think he'll spend a little more time in the mid field. The interchange changes will see a bit of impact on some stats from this point forward as well.

 

[Tulip]

Backing the Giants here. Thought D's NAB campaign looked better than it was.

They caught Port with experienced players first run and using the 90 rotation cap. Port destroyed them early before predictably running out of gas. Only just got over the Dogs who had 16 first choice players rested, and then were not special in getting past the saints who missed NAB 2 and was the first hit out for a number of players.

I think GWS has had a better prep overall and should sneak past by 2-4 goals.

Erm, sorry to interrupt - but if it was our less talented players' first run, and Ports' seniors first run - how did they run out of gas?

 

[Gift]

They stayed within the 90 rotation cap whereas Melbourne didn't.

 

[Tex200]

Erm, sorry to interrupt - but if it was our less talented players' first run, and Ports' seniors first run - how did they run out of gas?

Read the post. They worked within the 90 rotation limit.

 

[Danny88]

Wilson, Kelly and Steele are all in fantastic form and here's hoping they carry that into the game.
Wilson could be the key to opening up our run.
Our ol mate Buggy will lock down and negate either Shiel or Ward but Jack Steele is the dark horse and could prosper.
And Kelly could be in for big improve this year.

Don't know that bug is a good enough shut down player to do that. They have better options if they want to do that... Bugg won't hurt us

 

[Ellie Aquitaine]

Bugg won't hurt us

Except if he backs into you. He took out Reiwoldt and Heeney that way.

 

[Danny88]

Except if he backs into you. He took out Reiwoldt and Heeney that way.

yeah he does seem to have hard body parts...lol

 

[Drezdyn]

Except if he backs into you. He took out Reiwoldt and Heeney that way.

Man, I'm gonna miss him

 

[Cmarsh]

Would be more confident of a win in previous years but they seem to have a pretty well rounded team this year with good developing youngsters.

 

[Colonial]

Man, I'm gonna miss him

The tears he would bring to opposition supporters was just beautiful.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

Except if he backs into you. He took out Reiwoldt and Heeney that way.

Don't forget he ended Jonathon Brown's career with his hip.

 

[TheCount]

The tears he would bring to opposition supporters was just beautiful.

I'm already enjoying him greatly, had a great laugh at Reiwoldt having a cry in NAB3, tho admittedly, low bar.

Good luck to you guys this weekend, it'll be a ripping contest that could go either way in my opinion.

Mummy v Gawn is the most important contest on the ground, Mummy is a beast, but Fear the Beard!

 

[Land of the Giants]

Would be more confident of a win in previous years but they seem to have a pretty well rounded team this year with good developing youngsters.

The last time we played them was Round 23 last year, when we matched them until half time, then they ran away with it in the third quarter.

But half the team were missing that day - Buntine, Coniglio, Davis, Griffen, Haynes, Hoskin-Elliott, Mumford, Patfull, Scully, Shiel, Patton. As far as I know, only Nick Haynes from that group is out injured this time. Of course Cameron is suspended, and Treloar has gone, but we're pretty close to full strength.

We should be confident of a win - provided we treat them with respect.

 

[LeverPuller]

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...branch-opposition-supporters-welcome.1125926/

Banter thread if you are interested