Keys
Looking for a cloud to yell at
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Preseason is over and a new challenge begins when for the 4th time in our history we begin a season as reigning premiers seeking an elusive back to back flag.
Unfortunately since we opened with a home game in 2018, it's our turn to travel first up so that Fremantle can play for the Who Cares Cup against North in a barely half full stadium whilst we wait until Round 2 to unfurl that glorious flag. And travel we do with the longest trip in football (everybody else forgets the game in China so why can't I) to face a precocious young Brisbane Lions team keen to build on the strides they made in 2018 under Chris Fagan and establish themselves as finals contenders with a home victory against a competition heavyweight.
So lets have a preview (Candiru was all set to do this until he got in more strife than Jesse Hogan preparing for a training run. His ban should expire just in time for Round 1, 2020)
Round 1 - West Coast v Brisbane (Gabba) : Saturday March 23 @ 5.20pm (WST)
Head to Head :
West Coast 35 v Brisbane 12 (+1 draw)
Last 5 :
R23 2018 : West Coast 14.14:98 def Brisbane 11.6:72 (Gabba)
R19 2017 : West Coast 17.11:113 def Brisbane 6.9:45 (Subiaco)
R13 2016 : West Coast 20.11:121 def Brisbane 12.10:82 (Gabba)
R1 2016 : West Coast 26.10:166 def Brisbane 15.12:102 (Subiaco)
R4 2015 : West Coast 17.16:118 def Brisbane 9.11:65 (Gabba)
(We have won the last 8 against Brisbane with an average winning margin just shy of 50 points)
In an odd fixturing quirk we didn't play Brisbane until Round 23 in 2018 and we now play them in Round 1 in our only H&A meeting for 2019. Both games at the Gabba
Likely Line-ups :
Brisbane (I stole this from Fox Footy so won't vouch for it's accuracy)
B : Hodge, Gardiner, Rich
HB : Bailey, Andrews, Witherden
C : Robinson, Neale, McCluggage
HF : Rayner, Hipwood, Zorko
F : Cameron, McStay, McInerney
R : Martin, Berry, Lyons
I/C : Christensen, Taylor, Mathieson, McCarthy
West Coast :
B : Sheppard, Barrass, Hurn
HB : Jetta, McGovern, Duggan
C : Redden, Shuey, Sheed
HF : Rioli, Darling, Petrucelle
F : Ryan, Allen, Vardy
R : Hickey, Yeo, Hutchings
I/C : Cole, Masten, Venables, Waterman
(Waterman to miss if Kennedy plays)
From our GF winning side -
Out : Lecras (ret), Lycett (PA), Kennedy (leg), Cripps (toe), Schofield (quad)
In : Waterman, Hickey, Allen, Petrucelle, Sheppard
Preseason Form :
Both teams had impressive JLT matches with West Coast overpowering Geelong and Fremantle to record comfortable victories whilst Brisbane dispatched Hawthorn comprehensively before a hard fought win over finals
Key Matchups :
Andrews v Darling
One of the best young defenders in the game, Andrews, will likely stand the Eagles most dangerous forward Jack Darling and will have his hands full. In the expected absence of Josh Kennedy as he overcomes leg soreness, Darling will spearhead an inexperienced Eagles attack that boasts just one player (Darling) with more than 25 games. Prior to an untimely leg injury mid-season, Darling was THE dominant key forward in the AFL and indications during the preseason are that he is primed to replicate that form. If Andrews can quell his influence then the flotilla of eagles smalls will need to find the goals usually provided by forward stalwarts Kennedy, Cripps (both injured) and Lecras (retired)
Martin v Varkey
Martin is a near AA calibre ruckman and the new look Eagles ruck combination of Nathan Vardy and Tom Hickey will be looking to wear him down over the course of the game. Expect Hickey to do the bulk of the ruckwork as Vardy pushes forward to provide a deep marking target in the absence of Kennedy. The new 6-6-6 rule places newfound importance on centre clearances so getting first hands on the ball will be pivotal. It'll be a good first up test for Hickey
Hutchings v Zorko/Neale
In the R23 match last year Hutch was able to keep the usually prolific Zorko to 16 touches, however that allowed Beams off the leash with a game high 32 possessions. The Eagles know new Brisbane Lion and ball magnet, Lachie Neale, all too well and may decide to put the clamps on him rather than Zorko. My guess is that Hutch will go to Zorko due to his greater capacity to run and carry and that Neale may not have had time to develop an understanding with the outside mids he'll be hoping to connect with. Either way if Hutchings can take one of this pair out of the equation it will make it hard for a Brisbane midfield group lacking depth to match an Eagles group boasting the combined talents of Yeo, Shuey, Redden and Sheed
Hipwood v Barrass
As has become custom now, Barrass will take the oppositions most dangerous forward allowing McGovern to float off his man to read the incoming ball. A tall mobile forward can be something of an achilles heel for the Eagles tall defenders as neither are blessed with great pace although sexual has trimmed down noticeably over summer which has resulted in improved mobility. I'm sure Barrass still has nightmares of Franklin tearing him a new one in round 1 last year and he'll be keen to avoid a repeat dose from Buddy-lite
Prediction :
As always Round 1 is the most difficult round to predict with no true formline to go by. West Coast go into this game with their mids and backs virtually unchanged (Shep replacing Schoey and Hickey in for Slyce), however, the forwardline is significantly different - it's exciting in that it gives us a glimpse into the future but as mentioned there's a real dearth of experience. Simpson will be hoping that our midfield can get enough supply to them in space where the speed of Petch, Venables, Rioli and Ryan can create havoc. Oscar Allen has big twinkle toed shoes to fill but he's a confident young man who will relish the challenge and expect he'll announce himself as the future star I believe he'll be.
At the other end of the ground unless Hipwood gets completely off the chain I don't see how Brisbane have enough firepower against a settled and frugal Eagles defence to kick a winning score. This won't be a walk in the park for the Eagles by any stretch and they'll be challenged, however I think as we saw in the JLT the Eagles have another gear that most sides can't match and that will eventually overcome these young Lions.
West Coast by 24
