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Preview Round 10, 2025 Brisbane Lions v Narrm

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Not open for further replies.
When
Saturday 18th May
Where
Gabba, Brisbane / Yuggera - Toorabul
First Bounce
3:20pm

3KZ’s ‘Best Guess’ Line-up
FB: Lester, Payne, Answerth
HB: Zorko, Andrews, Wilmot
C: Fletcher, Bailey, McCluggage
HF: Cameron, Hipwood, Rayner
FF: Ah Chee, Morris, Lohmann
Fol: Fort, Neale, Dunkley
Int: McKenna, W.Ashcroft, L.Ashcroft, Robertson or Coleman
Sub: McInerney

It goes against the grain to suggest leaving McInerney out of the starting 24, but to me it looks like he needs a rest and this might be the game to do it. I actually thought Fort held his own against Xerri and he did really well against Gawn on the big stage, when we beat Melbourne in the 2022 Semi Final. With Berry out, we have a chance to reward good VFL form by including Dev Robertson for his first senior game this year. This strikes me as the best ‘like for like’ replacement for Berry.

Edit: Alternatively, we could include Coleman instead of Robertson. If you want to find a game to work him back into the side, this is just about perfect.

Other than Gardiner, there is nobody in the side I would leave out. If not selected this round, Coleman and Doedee have to come under consideration at some stage. The question is, does Fagan have the appetite to drop a defender or do they only come in if there is an injury. If he were to drop a player out of defence, they would be the unluckiest players of all time. Basically everyone who played last round, apart from Gardiner, L. Ashcroft and McInerney, are PREMIERSHIP HEROES, we are sitting on top of the ladder and we actually have more ‘form issues’ in our forward line. Time will tell.

To put us in the mood.

IMG_4191.jpeg
Saturday 28th July, 1979.


Friday 9th September, 2022

Our opponents
Narrm are really struggling. With only three wins this season and having run up the ‘white flag’ conceding 7 of the last 8 goals against Hawthorn, they wouldn’t be welcoming the game this week. Their wins this year have come against Richmond, West Coast and Fremantle, not much to get excited about there and I can’t see them troubling us. That said, we need to consult Elixuh, who was spot on about the threat posed by North Melbourne.

Where we win it and why?
It seems a bold prediction, but you would have to expect a big lift out of our midfield this week. Neale seldom puts in two ‘quiet’ games and Dunkley is in stellar form. In fact Josh Dunkley is so underrated by the football world, but he is a dual premiership winner and one of the bravest and most consistent players in the competition. Hugh McCluggage has been getting plenty of the ball and while his decision making and disposal have been a little off, he is still a total GUN. Rayner’s midfield minutes have been productive and W.Ashcroft is an absolute ACE IN THE HOLE! Narrm on the other hand are really struggling in the midfield and where they were once feared, they are now in serious decline. This weekend we see a Premiership Midfield that is still developing against one that is in disintegrating. Special shout out to Jasper Fletcher, who has been one of our best this year and must be doing well in the B&F voting to date.

In defence, Lester, Andrews and Payne, supported by Zorko, Answerth, Wilmot should be too strong. All the interest is in whether Doedee and Coleman get a run, but that won’t change the selection and dominance of our ESTABLISHED THREE PILLARS.

Up forward is a bit of another story, but with Lohmann able to play a full game and Ah Chee apparently a bit less hampered by his knee, I’m tipping these two to dominate. Hipwood and Rayner have both been super consistent for us this year and we have Morris, Bailey and Cameron ready to go and with a little bit to prove.

My word of warning to Narrm would be to BEWARE THE LIONS - ON THE REBOUND, AT HOME AND HUNTING A BIG WIN!

LIONS IN A LANDSLIDE!

🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁
BREAKING NEWS STOP THE PRESSES.
I have just been informed that BOTH Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner are playing their 150th games this weekend! Congratulations to both. Wishing them all the very best!
 
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I'd play Doedee if ready. Let him get used to playing with our backline and push Fletcher back out to wing. Demons will use their wings very well so we better put someone who has played there consistently rather than stop gap.

Agree with playing Fort solo and giving Big O a break - but this won't happen. It means Fort goes out and bring on the Gallopppppppp !!!!!
 
With Oscars interrupted preseason he is down a bit on the basic ruck stats.
It does not appear his shoulder is giving him trouble, but we don't see what's happening after the game.

Below the averages with the ranking in brackets.
Oscar really needs to take more marks but that is unlikely.
His best marks averages were in 2018 with 2.81 then 2.61, 1.74, 2.3, 2.05, 1.76, 1.92 & so far this year 1.88.
Because of these low mark numbers i added a column 1%.

Had a look at Forts mark averages and not much better. Admittingly it is from just 3 games last year and 3 this year
2024 was 2.3 with 2025 being 1.7.
His 18 game 2022 season average was 1.7.

YearHit OutsDisposalsMarksClearances
1%
202526.62 (14)10.88 (20)1.88 (22)4.75 (7)3.5 (5)
202432.36 (8)12.76 (17)1.92 (31)5.24 (5)3.6 (4)
 

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What role is Tom Doedee playing. Feels like we are pretty full across the halfback line at present. I like Fletcher there as he adds speed and run and carry to a pretty slow group.
 
What role is Tom Doedee playing. Feels like we are pretty full across the halfback line at present. I like Fletcher there as he adds speed and run and carry to a pretty slow group.
I still think we should be trying him or Lester up forward, not necessarily because I expect it to work, but I’m pretty worried about what we’re showing up there and the options we have in reserve (albeit injured).

Given our win/loss start to the season, albeit whilst continuing to play pretty average, it has given us the flexibility to trial a few things. I think would it be beneficial for down the track.
 
What role is Tom Doedee playing. Feels like we are pretty full across the halfback line at present. I like Fletcher there as he adds speed and run and carry to a pretty slow group.
Doedee would be our 3rd tall in defense similar to Lester and Gardiner (if not playing forward). Much closer to Lesters role.
The three get similar stat numbers with Doedee ahead in disposals over Lester then Gardiner. All other stats very similar.

I think our team can be fine running a few of those combinations

PlayerHeight cmWeight kgType
Gardiner19291Dour defender makes opposition player earn every possession
Doedee19090Adelaide: Excellent defense intercept and contested mark player. Very similar stats as Lester over their last 3 seasons. Better at ground level than the other 2
Lester19084+Lester very smart and positions himself well. Because of this he actually takes more marks than Deedee. Rarely makes wrong decisions
 
No kick2kick again for those that partake.

Round 10 Runsheet:​

10:00am: Lions Shop Opens
1:00pm:
Lions Park
2:00pm:
Public Gates
TBCpm: Jem Cassar-Daley performance
TBCpm: On-field Warmup
TBCpm: Lions run out/smoking ceremony
3:20pm: Bounce
QTR Time: Swyftx Challenge
HALF Time: Auskick, Birthdays & Community Champion
3/4 Time: XXXX Handball Challenge - Nominate yourself now!
POST Game: Player interviews, NO Kick2Kick unfortunately.
 
We have played Melbourne a huge 9 times since 2021 being 7 H&A and 2 finals.

Finals: one win each
H&A: Melbourne 4 wins to Lions 3 wins

Last 2 years: Lions by 5 (Gabba), Lions by 22 (MCG), Melbourne by 1 (MCG), Lions by 11 (Gabba)

Pickett has only played in two of the last 4 times we meet.
He kicked 4 and 3 goals in those two games

Rayner was just average in the August 2024 encounter but was huge in the April 2024 game at the MCG.

Oscar did okay against Gawn in the Aug 2024 game but Gawn well on top in the April 2024 game
 

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Dom Fay on his Podcast today was tipping Kiddy and Beecken in for Berry and Gardiner.

Looks like too many small to medium back half players to me.

How so? We had one tall too many and this'll essentially put Fletcher to the wing, Kiddy off HBF and Beecken sub. Looks like it's back to our previous much better balance to me.
 
Was interesting, On the couch had Leigh Matthews on, in a brief discussion about ruckman's role now, Leigh pointed out that ruckman don't run and jump any more, it's basically just a wrestle. He did mention the Lions playing 2 traditional ruckman on the weekend and it didn't work or left Brisbane too tall and slow. In a short discussion they were saying a strong 6 footer could be a ruckman now.

They had a very brief conversation about Cripps at Carlton taking some ruck contests to break his tag with allows another midfielder to come in. Would be the same as Dunkly taking some secondary rucks and us having an extra mid in the middle when Big O is not there. Mind you Geelong tried it with Jeremy Cameron on the weekend and that didn't go well, even christ Scott said that.

Our weekend will be about how we keep Big O against Gawn then then what we do if he is off the ground. Van Rooyen seemed their second help out ruckman and he seems 193 cm
 
Channel 10 just had a short clip on indigenous round and mentioned Cal Ah-Chee older brother designed the kit.

They ended with saying Tunstill likely to replace Berry.
Who knows where they got that from.

But Tunstill did have his best AFL game on the wing v Pies.
He was pushed to sub the following week when Lohmann returned.

If neither Kiddy nor Doedee are being considered than Fletcher stays at HBF.
 
Was interesting, On the couch had Leigh Matthews on, in a brief discussion about ruckman's role now, Leigh pointed out that ruckman don't run and jump any more, it's basically just a wrestle. He did mention the Lions playing 2 traditional ruckman on the weekend and it didn't work or left Brisbane too tall and slow. In a short discussion they were saying a strong 6 footer could be a ruckman now.

They had a very brief conversation about Cripps at Carlton taking some ruck contests to break his tag with allows another midfielder to come in. Would be the same as Dunkly taking some secondary rucks and us having an extra mid in the middle when Big O is not there. Mind you Geelong tried it with Jeremy Cameron on the weekend and that didn't go well, even christ Scott said that.

Our weekend will be about how we keep Big O against Gawn then then what we do if he is off the ground. Van Rooyen seemed their second help out ruckman and he seems 193 cm

Left field, but Dunks as relief ruck around the ground does have some appeal. Would need O to play every minute that Gawn does, but the extra run from Kiddy/Beeken/Dodee is appealing.
 
Channel 10 just had a short clip on indigenous round and mentioned Cal Ah-Chee older brother designed the kit.
They ended with saying Tunstill likely to replace Berry.
Who knows where they got that from.
Seems likely to be Fletcher or Tunstill to replace Bez with Dizzy out as sub. This is what Fish said in the AFL Injury List Update:
Berry’s absence with concussion could open the door for Keidean Coleman to return to the senior team. Coleman has played two matches in the VFL after overcoming his knee reconstruction and could slot in at his preferred half-back spot with Jaspa Fletcher pushing to the wing to replace Berry. The Lions would likely stick with two rucks to confront white-hot Max Gawn. Darcy Gardiner was used as the sub last week, but a more versatile player might be a better option this time around with James Tunstill and Will McLachlan at the head of the queue. – Michael Whiting
 

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Can you imagine the selection committee meeting before the suns game for example.

Soooo, what's everyone thinking about Dunkley for this weekend?

Person A) I was thinking we play him on Matt Rowell. You know, try to nullify his hard ball gets, contested possessions & clearances.

Person B) Yeah maybe I guess that might work, who knows......but rather than that, maybe we should have him as our second ruck.....
 
What role is Tom Doedee playing. Feels like we are pretty full across the halfback line at present. I like Fletcher there as he adds speed and run and carry to a pretty slow group.
Agree. This game against Melbourne is going to be a tough game especially as Gawn is playing so well in the ruck. Doedee is still an unknown.
 
Left field, but Dunks as relief ruck around the ground does have some appeal. Would need O to play every minute that Gawn does, but the extra run from Kiddy/Beeken/Dodee is appealing.
Dunks is our only real defensively minded mid, too valuable in that role.
 
Didn’t see Coleman’s second game back, but I’d be bringing him in if he recovered well. Without a reliable marking option for the long down the line bail out, his precision kicking and ability to open the game up will be a big point of difference for us. His skills really compliment our uncontested mark game beautifully.

It’s been a while since he played, but the start of last year he was being spoken about as the next All Australian HBF before lasting a half in 2024. We’ve been lucky to have depth there, but he is almost the best kick in the comp. Fitness has never been his greatest asset anyway, so I’d pull the trigger if he’s feeling confident.

I’m also excited to see Fletcher further up the ground. He has been playing beautifully so far, but I think he’ll he just as effective delivering inside 50 as he is rebounding out.
 
i dont even think its worth using the dual ruck setup to contest gawn - his dominance isnt really from his tapwork but his contributions around the ground, particularly his marking. does having two rucks really work to resolve that? i don't think so. bring in a forward and look to exploit melbourne's leaky defence with lever missing and may cooked.
 
Gawn's clutch marking all over the ground is such an asset, I'd love to see how we can use Payne to get to those contents and nullify him in the air as much as possible (especially against a weaker tall forward line)
i dont even think its worth using the dual ruck setup to contest gawn - his dominance isnt really from his tapwork but his contributions around the ground, particularly his marking. does having two rucks really work to resolve that? i don't think so. bring in a forward and look to exploit melbourne's leaky defence with lever missing and may cooked.
 
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