Preview Round 10 - Geelong v Carlton, GMHBA, Saturday 7:25pm

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Preview by cats_09

Round 10: Geelong vs Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium
At around 7:15pm on Saturday 26 May, many in attendance at GMHBA Stadium will be experiencing a first – watching Carlton run out through their banner as Geelong will host their first genuine home match against Carlton since Saturday 16 August 1997.

Last time they met: Round 19 2017, Etihad Stadium
Geelong 18.15 123 defeated Carlton 8.10 58
Brownlow Votes: 3 – T. Hawkins, 2. J Murdoch, 1 Z. Smith
AFLCA Votes: 10 T. Hawkins, 7 M. Duncan, 4. J Murdoch, 3 P. Dangerfield, 2 S. Menegola, 2 J. Selwood & 2 Z. Smith

Clearly BOG, Hawkins went crazy playing as a higher forward as he racked up marks & disposals at will, to finish with 27 disposals, 12 marks, 6 goals & 3 goal assists. Interestingly, 2 much maligned players also found themselves in both the Brownlow & Coaches votes – so will past good history against Carlton be enough to give Murdoch & Smith another run this week?

Last time they met in Geelong: Round 20 1997
Geelong 13.17 95 defeated Carlton 9.13 67
Brownlow Votes: 3 – B. Sholl, 2 – J. Barnes, 1 – D. Hall

Not much memory of this game, but needless to say there isn’t any players on either list who played in this match, though there are 3 sons of guns on the current team lists – Sam Simpson for Geelong, Jack & Alex Silvagni for Carlton, but none of the 3 are currently featuring for their sides at senior level.

Playing at a new venue:
With 21 years between trips to Geelong, the venue & ground will be new to majority of Carlton’s players with only a few recycled players from other teams having ventured down the highway prior to Saturday to play an AFL match (excluding any VFL matches a player may have come down for). From the team that was smashed to the tune of 109 points by Melbourne on Sunday, only 6 have previous experience of playing in Geelong: obviously Darcy Lang, along with Sam Kerridge, Matthew Wright, Jed Lamb, Cam O’Shea & Liam Jones.

In their (limited) experience, will they be in a position to offer advice or recommendations for how to play the ground, because we have seen over the years how opposition teams have got strangled in matches when they try to use the wings which allows Geelong to block the space down the line, rather than teams playing quickly & more directly – a tactic well used by Sydney.

The Backlines:
Carlton currently find themselves sitting 18thon the ladder having conceded a league high 959 points across the opening 9 rounds – more points than any team has actually scored so far this year – and they have allowed the opposition to score 100+ in 6 matches. It’s safe to say that defence hasn’t been a strong suit for the Blues so far this year, and on a new ground it may well struggle again if they don’t receive support from further up the ground.

Geelong’s change in defensive prowess had been well document in the lead-up to the Essendon match, and while the 84 points against on Saturday was the 2ndmost points over the past 6 weeks (losses both times), there were positives found in the defenders with acknowledgement that better team defence is required. Even after the loss, Geelong sits 17thfor points conceded just 660 across the opening 9 rounds, and only once allowing a team to hit the century.

Geelong had a found a defensive structure which worked and that was having 2 tall defenders (Blicavs & Stewart), 2 medium defenders who can play tall or small (Henry & Kolo), 2 small defenders (Bews & Zuthrie), with assistance from the likes of Thurlow, Cunico amongst others. When Harry Taylor returned from injury, the MC made the decision to drop a small in Zuthrie and the combination of 3 tall defenders may have thrown out the balance down back – ahead of this match and going forward for the rest of the season, the MC needs to review which structure will work best going forward and a hard decision may need to be made that sees a club veteran not playing every match (especially as Taylors lack of speed was noticeable against the quicker ball & player movement of Essendon), or that a youngster like Henry continues his development in the VFL.

The Midfields:
Where the match will be won or lost for Geelong – averaging a league low 9.6 centre clearances, sitting 11thfor average total clearances with 36.4, while currently sitting 9thfor average hitouts with 38.4 per match, this is the biggest challenge for Geelong both this week and going forward for the remainder for the season. Carlton on the other hand are sitting 6thfor both centre clearances (13.2) & total clearances (37.4), yet they are 14thfor hitouts with just 34.9 per match.

The challenge to the Geelong midfield this week is to knuckle down & make a genuine contest of things in the middle – too often this year when we have lost quarters & ultimately matches, its because our midfield has just rolled over & allowed the opposition to have their way with things. The names of Selwood x 2, Dangerfield, Ablett & Duncan excited many football fans before the start of the season, and its time they stood up & showed the fans why they were excited before the start of the season. Fail to fire or play as a unit, and the likes of Cripps, Curnow & Thomas could rack up 30+ disposals each.

The Forwards:
Having conceded the most points, Carlton also find themselves sitting 17thfor points scored having only 607 points for the season. An issue for Carlton has been finding an avenue to goal with only 5 players averaging 1 goal or more per game (McKay, C Curnow, Casboult, Wright & Lang). Against one of the strongest defensives units in the league, slow ball movement could easily see the Blues forward line struggle – the key for Carlton will be quick ball movement and repeated entries, something we have seen from both Essendon & Sydney over the past month, as that will pressure Geelong’s structure & can see things start to breakdown.

A revelation for Geelong in 2018 has been the introduction of Ratugolea playing as the second tall forward & back-up ruck, and his importance to our structure has been shown in his 2 absences in our loses to Hawthorn & Essendon. After being managed against Essendon, he will hopefully make a welcome return to the side to face Carlton as his work as a leading forward was missed on Saturday, and without a designated second ruck, structures were also thrown out of wack. His willingness to lead hard, crash packs and not give up once either the ball or himself hits the deck is a welcome sight for Geelong fans and surely teammates alike.

The Verdict:
Scott is hopeful that we will have Scooter, Parfitt, Ratugolea & Fogarty all available to return from injury, while good games in the VFL has the trio of Jamaine Jones (18 disposals & 2 goals), Ryan Abbott (18 disposals & 23 hitouts) and Stanley (13 disposals & 4 goals) pushing for inclusion and we should see multiple changes made to the side that had a humiliating 34 point loss to Essendon on Saturday. Smith, Parsons, Murdoch, Gregson, Horlin-Smith could find themselves in danger of being dropped, while a reconfiguration to the backline to drop the extra tall could see Taylor or Henry unlucky to miss.

Carlton now find themselves sitting 18thon the ladder and are coming off a humiliating 109 point loss to Melbourne, and they could yet again be without their captain Murphy who may be off for more scans on his injured foot after he returned for his first match from a plantar fasciainjury which was aggravated earlier this season.

While Carlton will be looking to bounce back & regain some respect it should be a step to far when they venture down the highway for the first time in over 20 years, as Geelong also look to return to form, make a statement at home and stamp their domination over the 18thplaced team.

Geelong by 63
 
Last time they met in Geelong: Round 20 1997
Geelong 13.17 95 defeated Carlton 9.13 67
Brownlow Votes: 3 – B. Sholl, 2 – J. Barnes, 1 – D. Hall

I hear J Barnes is having a few post-footy issues, but do you think he could pull on the hoops for this weekend to go head to head against Kreuzer?
 

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Out: Murdoch, Parsons, Gregson, Smith, GHS, Thurlow/Cunico.
In: Fogarty, Parfitt, Jones, Stanley/Abbott, S. Selwood, Ratugolea.

Not expecting this many changes of course. If Parfitt isn’t ready this week then Thurlow/Cunico stay in. Would like to see how Abbott goes at some stage.

FB: Bews - Taylor - Kolodjashnij
HB: Tuohy - Blicavs - Stewart
C: Duncan - S. Selwood - Kelly
HF: Ablett - Ratugolea - Parfitt
FF: Fogarty - Hawkins - Jones
R: Stanley/Abbott - Dangerfield - J. Selwood
INT: Menegola, Crameri, Henry, Thurlow/Cunico.
 
Nice preview!

Changes I'd make:

Sav for Smith - neither smith or Stanley deserve a game. Let's see what Blics can do. He was pretty good around the ground against West Coast and only got beaten by NicNat late when we were down men so blics was tucking the whole time. He's not needed in defence so let's see if he can complete in the ruck then run them off their feet.

O'Connor for Murdoch - give O'Connor 10 games and he'll be better than Murdoch is now. His upside is immense. Murdoch goes ok at times but his weaknesses come out at the worst moments continually.

Parfitt for Thurlow - pity for Jackson but I don't see what his strength is. Parfitt's a star.

Fogarty for Cunico/Gregson. Neither of the outs could consider themselves unlucky after last week.

Scooter for GHS. I love GHS but he's a backup only at the moment.
 
Plenty of options to come back in.
Great points made about the backline, with injury out it was meant to be a weakness but it was turned into a real strength with Stewart really leading the charge. Give Taylor a couple more games and Henry unluckily goes back to the reserves for now, see if that structure works better and if Henrys form in the Vfl combined with a drop from Blicavs, Kolo or Taylor means some changes then it least it's a healthy one and keeps some structure that works.
Surely the supposed super mega amazing midfield are embarrased and come out firing, other than some glimpses in the first couple of rounds we are yet to truely see what they should be capable of.
I hate to say it but i really want to see a huge win with some authority and then dont celebrate just move on to the next game with a balanced TEAM
 

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Nice preview!

Changes I'd make:

Sav for Smith - neither smith or Stanley deserve a game. Let's see what Blics can do. He was pretty good around the ground against West Coast and only got beaten by NicNat late when we were down men so blics was tucking the whole time. He's not needed in defence so let's see if he can complete in the ruck then run them off their feet.

O'Connor for Murdoch - give O'Connor 10 games and he'll be better than Murdoch is now. His upside is immense. Murdoch goes ok at times but his weaknesses come out at the worst moments continually.

Parfitt for Thurlow - pity for Jackson but I don't see what his strength is. Parfitt's a star.

Fogarty for Cunico/Gregson. Neither of the outs could consider themselves unlucky after last week.

Scooter for GHS. I love GHS but he's a backup only at the moment.
O’conner does not deserve a game. I wouldn’t even call him best 25. Has no idea what he is doing out there.
 
I’d love to see

Smith, Gregson, Parsons, GHS, murdoch and thurlow out. But no way the MC make 6 changes. Too unstabalising. So I reckon

Smith - Ratugolea
Gregson - JJ
GHS - Scooter
 
Out: Murdoch, Parsons, Gregson, Smith, GHS, Thurlow/Cunico.
In: Fogarty, Parfitt, Jones, Stanley/Abbott, S. Selwood, Ratugolea.

Not expecting this many changes of course. If Parfitt isn’t ready this week then Thurlow/Cunico stay in. Would like to see how Abbott goes at some stage.

FB: Bews - Taylor - Kolodjashnij
HB: Tuohy - Blicavs - Stewart
C: Duncan - S. Selwood - Kelly
HF: Ablett - Ratugolea - Parfitt
FF: Fogarty - Hawkins - Jones
R: Stanley/Abbott - Dangerfield - J. Selwood
INT: Menegola, Crameri, Henry, Thurlow/Cunico.

Here's mine:

Out: Murdoch, Parsons, Gregson, GHS.
In: Jones, Abbott, S. Selwood, Ratugolea.

FB: Bews - Taylor - Kolodjashnij
HB: Tuohy - Blitz - Stewart
C: Duncan - S. Selwood - Kelly
HF: Ablett - Ratugolea - Menegola
FF: Crameri - Hawkins - Jones
R: Smith - Dangerfield - J. Selwood
INT: Abbott, Cunico, Henry, Thurlow.

EDIT: On reflection two debutantes? Hmm, not sure they will do that. Prefer Abbot to Jones if down to a choice and leave Gregson in with a rocket firmly up his bum.

LATE EDIT: Bwuce has just emailed and told me it's Menengola not Menegola
 
Last edited:
Here's mine:

Out: Murdoch, Parsons, Gregson, GHS.
In: Jones, Abbott, S. Selwood, Ratugolea.

FB: Bews - Taylor - Kolodjashnij
HB: Tuohy - Blitz - Stewart
C: Duncan - S. Selwood - Kelly
HF: Ablett - Ratugolea - Menegola
FF: Crameri - Hawkins - Jones
R: Smith - Dangerfield - J. Selwood
INT: Abbott, Cunico, Henry, Thurlow.

EDIT: On reflection two debutantes? Hmm, not sure they will do that. Prefer Abbot to Jones if down to a choice and leave Gregson in with a rocket firmly up his bum.

LATE EDIT: Bwuce has just emailed and told me it's Menengola not Menegola
That's a very, very tall team. I'd like to see Abbott named as #1 ruckman with Sav and Blitz giving chopouts. Can't be worse than Smith or Stanley
 
Fogerty must surely be straight back in after being rested for 2 weeks. Really need his defensive pressure. Give JJ a run and drop parsons and gregson for those 2.

Give abbott a run and drop smith. Rat back in. Not sure who for. Scooter for ghs if he is fit.

Parfitt if he is fit for someone like murdoch.

A lot of changes will depend on the fitness of parfitt, scooter and fog.

Sav is the only definate at this stage. And JJ deserves a game on form.
 
Based on this comment alone

I think we'll see something special from Gaz
Then one must ask why he can't say and do that every week. It's not the fact that he played a bad game it's more that he refused to
Tackle and chase and looked disinterested.

I shake my head when I hear players and coaches say that ... that just reaffirms that they went into the Essendon game with the mindset that they'd already had the game won. It happens all too often.
 
I can't wait. I don't think Gary's the type to drop a line like that and not back it up.

Remember when he was cooked last year after the Giants game?
Week after he got 36 touches, 2 goals, 10 clearances and 3 Bronwlow votes against the Hawks.

He's not a normal footballer, so I'm very interested to see his response.
 
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