caesar88
Moderator
- Apr 26, 2016
- 35,838
- 70,813
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Moderator
- #1
How I felt before our run of three straight SCG games:
How I felt during our run of three straight SCG games:
Well, we did it. We made it through our run of three straight home games without notching up three straight losses, as we responded in a big way against Essendon, whose flight to Sydney was delayed and they had to send their Holograms in to play instead. I can't say the last month was totally enjoyable, but we look ahead to the next few weeks with some primetime footy coming our way and a chance to re-declare ourselves as contenders to the rest of the competition.
"This Friday night match between Sydney and Carlton will be a blockbuster and impossible to tip."
If you had the above sentence on your bingo card before the season started, then you're bloody shrewd. But thanks to the Swans (so far) failing to take the next step in season 2022, and Carlton surging into the top eight on the back of a new coach, fitness to key players and some great recruiting, this one should be a close game and a ripper to watch if both sides turn up to play.
Then again, if you look at our recent encounters against this mob, you'd find that the going hasn't always been as easy against them as it should've been.
Notable past games:
Needless to say, we have struggled to perform at our best against this team even when they're battling. Now that they are thriving and appear headed for September action, our assignment will be even tougher this week.
Where it will be won:
It kills me to have to do this, since I have about as much regard for statistics as Paddy McCartin has for his own safety, but I know many value it, and since I'm a good sailor, here are where some of the teams strengths have placed them statistically:
Carlton are ranked 1st in the comp for disposals, 3rd for disposal efficiency, 5th for clearances, and 5th for contested possessions.
Sydney are ranked 3rd in the comp for goals and 4th for tackles. (After that it's crickets...)
What does it mean? Well for starters, it means that Carlton have been more consistent and better-performing that they rate so highly in so many areas compared to us. However, most of them pertain to their midfield, and with names like Cripps, Walsh, Cerra and Kennedy, is it any wonder? But that 3rd in the comp for goals for the Swans when we rate highly in so few other categories is telling. It shows our talent and ability to put goals on the board is winning out. That's no secret to us Swans fans, we all know the talent is there but the application hasn't always been this year. For Carlton, it will likely be about winning the midfield battle so they can get the game on their terms. That is their MO and credit to them, it's worked. For us, it will be about competing and putting in a good showing in the midfield battle, so we can give all of our talented players the best chance at doing what they do best: creating goals.
Based on the above, Fox Footy LAB may have a notable change: IN - Caesar, OUT - David King (managed with a bruised ego.)
Players to watch:
The giants - Buddy. Curnow. The McCartin bros. Weitering. Petom Hickhams. There's some absolutely must-watch tall timber around the ground for both sides, and under the roof of the AFL's equivalent of a Bunnings Warehouse, it could be an ideal night for the big fellas to impact the game. However it is worth mentioning that Carlton aren't quite as fortunate as we are in this regard, with last year's Coleman Medalist Harry McKay out for six weeks, and their main ruckman Pittonet out for 6-10 weeks.
The supremos - Heeney, Cripps, Mills & Walsh. Close games between quality sides so often end up about which team's best players have the greatest impact. Heeney will be the most talented and gifted player on the ground. Cripps has been probably the best player in the competition this year, averaging 29 disposals and nearly 2 goals a game. Mills has elevated himself to a top 10 midfielder in the competition and our midfield leader. And Walsh is without a doubt the best young player in the competition. It is hard to imagine any of these guys not having a big say in the result, good or bad.
But don't forget about - Chad Warner & Adam Cerra. They are both quality youngsters playing in the shadows of bigger names, but they are the types of players that if you don't give them enough credit and pay too much attention to those bigger names, they will get you. Warner with his line-breaking and relentless attack, Cerra with his creative plays in the front half and skill in traffic.
Possible changes?
Subject to change later in the week. Mills may owe Rowbottom a beer if he misses the next week, and with Campbell managed last week, that seems a relatively straight-forward swap, and likely the only change we'd make to a strong team performance. (Could this mean Campbell pushed up the ground and potentially added to the midfield rotations? Unlikely. More likely is that Florent/JPK/McInerney spend more time on ball with Campbell returning to defence.)
And finally...
The elephant in the room, who you all knew I'd have to mention at some point. The former Swan-turned-Blue who some say we gave up too easily and he's now gone on to be a regular in Carlton's best 22. He joined the Blues with a certain sense of, "Who?", but has now earned the respect of 80,000 loyal Carlton fans, while certain portions of the Swans fan-base wonder what could've been. He's a controversial topic on this board, so I've decided it's not worth derailing this thread by talking about him. You can all discuss Nic Newman somewhere else.
Swans by 9 points.
How I felt during our run of three straight SCG games:
Well, we did it. We made it through our run of three straight home games without notching up three straight losses, as we responded in a big way against Essendon, whose flight to Sydney was delayed and they had to send their Holograms in to play instead. I can't say the last month was totally enjoyable, but we look ahead to the next few weeks with some primetime footy coming our way and a chance to re-declare ourselves as contenders to the rest of the competition.
"This Friday night match between Sydney and Carlton will be a blockbuster and impossible to tip."
If you had the above sentence on your bingo card before the season started, then you're bloody shrewd. But thanks to the Swans (so far) failing to take the next step in season 2022, and Carlton surging into the top eight on the back of a new coach, fitness to key players and some great recruiting, this one should be a close game and a ripper to watch if both sides turn up to play.
Then again, if you look at our recent encounters against this mob, you'd find that the going hasn't always been as easy against them as it should've been.
Notable past games:
- There was a narrow 6 point victory against the Blues in 2016, the year we finished minor premiers and made the grand final whilst Carlton finished 14th. This match was the debut appearance of Jordan Foote for the Swans. You asked for notable games.
- In 2017 we suffered an infamous loss to the Blues at the MCG, which famously helped secure the recruitment of Owen Six, who had a bright start to his career with us before fizzling as the season wore on.
- We faced them again later that year where we flogged them by 81 points, but most importantly, Buddy got his only double-digit haul as a Swan. (A repeat of that would be nice this week!)
- They beat us by 7 points in round 17 of the 2019 season, which kick-started a streak of six consecutive losses for us that season which condemned us to a bottom four finish for the first time this century.
- In 2020, they beat us by 5 points, after we blew a massive lead and somehow let Matthew Cottrell kick the match-winning goal. The fact that more than half of his Google Image results are of his celebration that night tells you all you need to know about what he's gone on to do since then.
Needless to say, we have struggled to perform at our best against this team even when they're battling. Now that they are thriving and appear headed for September action, our assignment will be even tougher this week.
Where it will be won:
It kills me to have to do this, since I have about as much regard for statistics as Paddy McCartin has for his own safety, but I know many value it, and since I'm a good sailor, here are where some of the teams strengths have placed them statistically:
Carlton are ranked 1st in the comp for disposals, 3rd for disposal efficiency, 5th for clearances, and 5th for contested possessions.
Sydney are ranked 3rd in the comp for goals and 4th for tackles. (After that it's crickets...)
What does it mean? Well for starters, it means that Carlton have been more consistent and better-performing that they rate so highly in so many areas compared to us. However, most of them pertain to their midfield, and with names like Cripps, Walsh, Cerra and Kennedy, is it any wonder? But that 3rd in the comp for goals for the Swans when we rate highly in so few other categories is telling. It shows our talent and ability to put goals on the board is winning out. That's no secret to us Swans fans, we all know the talent is there but the application hasn't always been this year. For Carlton, it will likely be about winning the midfield battle so they can get the game on their terms. That is their MO and credit to them, it's worked. For us, it will be about competing and putting in a good showing in the midfield battle, so we can give all of our talented players the best chance at doing what they do best: creating goals.
Based on the above, Fox Footy LAB may have a notable change: IN - Caesar, OUT - David King (managed with a bruised ego.)
Players to watch:
The giants - Buddy. Curnow. The McCartin bros. Weitering. Petom Hickhams. There's some absolutely must-watch tall timber around the ground for both sides, and under the roof of the AFL's equivalent of a Bunnings Warehouse, it could be an ideal night for the big fellas to impact the game. However it is worth mentioning that Carlton aren't quite as fortunate as we are in this regard, with last year's Coleman Medalist Harry McKay out for six weeks, and their main ruckman Pittonet out for 6-10 weeks.
The supremos - Heeney, Cripps, Mills & Walsh. Close games between quality sides so often end up about which team's best players have the greatest impact. Heeney will be the most talented and gifted player on the ground. Cripps has been probably the best player in the competition this year, averaging 29 disposals and nearly 2 goals a game. Mills has elevated himself to a top 10 midfielder in the competition and our midfield leader. And Walsh is without a doubt the best young player in the competition. It is hard to imagine any of these guys not having a big say in the result, good or bad.
But don't forget about - Chad Warner & Adam Cerra. They are both quality youngsters playing in the shadows of bigger names, but they are the types of players that if you don't give them enough credit and pay too much attention to those bigger names, they will get you. Warner with his line-breaking and relentless attack, Cerra with his creative plays in the front half and skill in traffic.
Possible changes?
Subject to change later in the week. Mills may owe Rowbottom a beer if he misses the next week, and with Campbell managed last week, that seems a relatively straight-forward swap, and likely the only change we'd make to a strong team performance. (Could this mean Campbell pushed up the ground and potentially added to the midfield rotations? Unlikely. More likely is that Florent/JPK/McInerney spend more time on ball with Campbell returning to defence.)
And finally...
The elephant in the room, who you all knew I'd have to mention at some point. The former Swan-turned-Blue who some say we gave up too easily and he's now gone on to be a regular in Carlton's best 22. He joined the Blues with a certain sense of, "Who?", but has now earned the respect of 80,000 loyal Carlton fans, while certain portions of the Swans fan-base wonder what could've been. He's a controversial topic on this board, so I've decided it's not worth derailing this thread by talking about him. You can all discuss Nic Newman somewhere else.
Swans by 9 points.
