Preview Round 10 v St Kilda @ RSEA Park (Moorabbin)

[cmndstab]

I do not believe we should be top of the ladder
I am serious about this our forward delivery and goal execution is woeful

Our goal execution isn't too bad, other than a couple of serial missers (looking at you SLT). It's the forward delivery, or more precisely, the delivery inside 30m that lets us down. The problem is, our defensive zone is so good, and our midfield so good aerially, that when the opposition rebound we tend to win it back, and so it ends up with our forward 50 being stacked full of opposition players and so we just keep bombing it in hoping for a miracle and racking up behinds. We need a better plan than that, but it is effective as long as our defence keeps holding up.

We're top of the ladder based on our elite defence. In terms of potency in attack we're ahead of most teams but clearly well behind Brisbane and Melbourne. Those two teams stack up against us well in the midfield, but our defence is a cut above.

If our forward line was functioning properly we'd win by 10+ goals every week.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Hardest schedule to easiest

1. Carlton
=2. Adelaide
=2. Melbourne
=2. North Melbourne
=5. Fremantle
=5. West Coast
=7. Western Bulldogs
=7. Greater Western Sydney
9. St Kilda
10. Brisbane
11. Collingwood
12. Richmond
13. Gold Coast
14. Geelong

 

[Caputo]

I am hating the media narratives Channel 7 "The Last Dance" whilst Advertiser "Adelaide Tear them apart" by Port incoming trying to get the song in. Yet Brisbane bounced back quickly after losing Captain and VC. freo losing players and WCE still the joke. One must commend SANFL for starting SANFLW at same time as AFLW. Plus expanded quickly even though WWT and Centrals yet to breakthrough.

 

[cmndstab]

I am hating the media narratives Channel 7 "The Last Dance" whilst Advertiser "Adelaide Tear them apart" by Port incoming trying to get the song in. Yet Brisbane bounced back quickly after losing Captain and VC. freo losing players and WCE still the joke. One must commend SANFL for starting SANFLW at same time as AFLW. Plus expanded quickly even though WWT and Centrals yet to breakthrough.

There's no doubt that keeping our core initial group together has been handy - Randall, Phillips, Marinoff, Hatchard, Allan, and to a lesser extent SLT and Mules - but much of our sustained success has come from being able to find good players up and down the draft. It hasn't just been first round picks, we've had plenty of quality picks later in the draft. Names like Jones (2017 pick 24), Rajcic (2017 pick 32), Ponter (2018 pick 48), Gould (2019 pick 68), Biddell, (2018 pick 102), Martin (2020 pick 45), Woodland (2020 pick 47), all coming well outside of the first round. Ballard and Tonon from the latest draft, even. Not to mention picks like Jess Foley, who was critical in our 2019 flag.

There's no reason to think that players of that quality won't continue to be available even with Port in the draft (admittedly they will get to pick the eyes out of it for the next couple of years). SANFLW should be able to support both clubs. It's just up to us to keep a core of high quality players at the club so we can use the draft to top up and plug gaps rather than needing to rebuild.

 

[marvin]

our accuracy for 2022:

Adelaide for 54.81 (405) accuracy 40%
Adelaide against 24.37 (181) accuracy 39.3%

In comparison

Melbourne for 67.68 (470) accuracy 49.6%
Melbourne against 35.42 (252) accuracy 45.5%

Brisbane for 69.82 (496) accuracy 45.7%
Brisbane against 37.30 (252) accuracy 55.2%

Scoring shots
Adelaide for 135 against 61
Melbourne for 135 against 77
Brisbane for 151 against 67

Some notes:

Brisbane didn’t play top 6 side Freo and lost to Melbourne and Adelaide
Melbourne didn’t play top 6 side Collingwood and lost to Adelaide
Adelaide beat all the other top 6 sides

Some observations:

Of the three top contenders, Adelaide are the least accurate team by a distance. However, they are the strongest defensively conceding the lowest number of scores at the lowest accuracy.
Brisbane generate the most scoring shots, but defensively they are either massively unlucky with their opponents accuracy, or else their attacking bent means they are vulnerable to concede high percentage shots from turnovers.
That 8.1 (49) by the Dogs is a standout as an anomaly. Take that out and we conceded 16.36 (132) from 9 games, or less than 15 points a game. By comparison, the worst attack in the league (St Kilda) averaged 21.3 points per game!

 

[brucetiki]

I am hating the media narratives Channel 7 "The Last Dance" whilst Advertiser "Adelaide Tear them apart" by Port incoming trying to get the song in. Yet Brisbane bounced back quickly after losing Captain and VC. freo losing players and WCE still the joke. One must commend SANFL for starting SANFLW at same time as AFLW. Plus expanded quickly even though WWT and Centrals yet to breakthrough.

This! I’m surprised people still think Adelaide will fall over simply because Port will join the competition (often while commenting on our depth in the same breath).

Fremantle would’ve won the 2020 Premiership if not for COVID (the year West Coast entered the competition).

Brisbane won the 2021 premiership despite Gold Coast entering the comp the year prior.

Personally, I’d be more concerned about GWS with Sydney coming in. GWS have been perennial underachievers in the AFL since day 1. Either Sydney’s going to do more in one season than what GWS have done in 6 or both NSW sides are going to be West Coast style basket cases next season.

 

[Caputo]

Maybe this COVID year might be serendipitous for us in the expansion year.
Currently we have our 30 players plus 4 Inactive and the 10 Train on.
Even though we have had train on players in previous years, this year they had a higher chance to play.

 

[cmndstab]

Mules apparently expected to be right in time for the prelim.

 

[jenny61_99]

Mules apparently expected to be right in time for the prelim.

That’s phenomena!

 

[tiggsy]

Also nothing I could see in the media or on the AFLW website to suggest Jones was reported.

 

[cmndstab]

Also nothing I could see in the media or on the AFLW website to suggest Jones was reported.

I'm quietly hopeful but will hold off until the match review report comes out.

 

[marvin]

Also nothing I could see in the media or on the AFLW website to suggest Jones was reported.

She was clearly reported by the umpire on the field. The fact that Lucas-Rodd got straight up and took her kick (and was allowed to by the St Kilda medical team) has to be a factor in assessing severity, so hopefully it’s a reprimand at worst. But then again, it’s MRP lotto time

 

[dplggr47]

This! I’m surprised people still think Adelaide will fall over simply because Port will join the competition (often while commenting on our depth in the same breath).

Fremantle would’ve won the 2020 Premiership if not for COVID (the year West Coast entered the competition).

Brisbane won the 2021 premiership despite Gold Coast entering the comp the year prior.

Personally, I’d be more concerned about GWS with Sydney coming in. GWS have been perennial underachievers in the AFL since day 1. Either Sydney’s going to do more in one season than what GWS have done in 6 or both NSW sides are going to be West Coast style basket cases next season.

Freo only lost Hooker (and to a lesser extent Gibson) to WCE, while Brisbane lost the maximum 8 players To Gold Coast and more to other teams from what I recall. Brisbane have lost the most of any club in the league (Harris, Frederick-Traub, Ashmore, McCarthy, Randall, Stanton, etc) yet remain competitive. I think they kept their core midfield and star defenders together, but they've done very well to stay at the top.

Gold Coast have won 5 games in 3 years, while West Coast have won 4 in 3 years. Anyone wishing to join the new expansion teams should be expecting very few wins over the next few years.

 

[dplggr47]

She was clearly reported by the umpire on the field. The fact that Lucas-Rodd got straight up and took her kick (and was allowed to by the St Kilda medical team) has to be a factor in assessing severity, so hopefully it’s a reprimand at worst. But then again, it’s MRP lotto time

If she was concussed, it would've been automatic two weeks (based on Allen's result). If this was men's footy, it'd be a reprimand, but it's not and women do get concussed more easily than men, so might get the 1 week. Reprimand at best.

 

[cmndstab]

Gold Coast have won 5 games in 3 years, while West Coast have won 4 in 3 years. Anyone wishing to join the new expansion teams should be expecting very few wins over the next few years.

The only expansion side to have been any good at all is North Melbourne, and they were fostering relationships with players since before AFLW even started. Hawthorn might potentially be in a similar boat but the other new expansion sides are on a hiding to nothing for the first few seasons.

 

[Dirty Bird]

	W	D	L
Adelaide - 2017	36​	1​	14​	71.56863​
Melbourne - 2017	35​	0​	14​	71.42857​
North Melbourne - 2019	24​	0​	10​	70.58824​
Brisbane - 2017	32​	2​	17​	64.70588​
Fremantle - 2017	29​	1​	18​	61.45833​
Carlton - 2017	25​	1​	23​	52.04082​
Collingwood - 2017	25​	0​	24​	51.02041​
Western Bulldogs - 2017	20​	1​	26​	43.61702​
Greater Western Sydney - 2017	18​	2​	27​	40.42553​
St Kilda - 2020	7​	0​	18​	28​
Geelong - 2019	8​	0​	25​	24.24242​
Richmond - 2020	6​	0​	19​	24​
Gold Coast - 2020	5​	2​	18​	24​
West Coast - 2020	4​	0​	21​	16​
	274​	10​	274​	50​

 

[cmndstab]

Geez, that is a precipitous drop down to the expansion sides (sans Kangaroos). From 40% straight down to 28% and down from there.

 

[Scorpus]

Geez, that is a precipitous drop down to the expansion sides (sans Kangaroos). From 40% straight down to 28% and down from there.

And the AFLW does heavy fixture manipulation to ensure the bottom sides play each other as much as possible.

 

[Scorpus]

One match ban for Jones

 

[cmndstab]

One match ban for Jones

A shame but not unexpected. I wonder if they'll contest it? Definitely not if it is a chance of going to two matches.

They could only really argue it should be low impact rather than medium impact.

 

[marvin]

A shame but not unexpected. I wonder if they'll contest it? Definitely not if it is a chance of going to two matches.

They could only really argue it should be low impact rather than medium impact.

Tackle laid
7 seconds later player rolls over on to her back under her own steam.
12 seconds after tackle St Kilda trainer reaches player
16 seconds after tackle trainer helps player to her feet. Player immediately takes position to take free kick.

If the trainer’s assessment was that they player was in a state to immediately stand up and take the ball (literally 4 seconds after they arrived at the incident) it seems very hard to argue that it’s medium impact. You wouldn’t make such a snap decision to assist the player to her feet if there was any suggestion of a head injury. Still, MRP is going to MRP.

 

[dplggr47]

A shame but not unexpected. I wonder if they'll contest it? Definitely not if it is a chance of going to two matches.

They could only really argue it should be low impact rather than medium impact.

I think they'll accept it even if they don't agree. The cost of lawyers and cost to challenge is usually not worth it in the AFLW.

 

[ams4crows]

Maybe she'll learn from this, it was unnecessary to tackle like that knowing the game was won and only 30 seconds left. It's her own fault, and needs to learn to redirect her aggression into good

 

[cmndstab]

Maybe she'll learn from this, it was unnecessary to tackle like that knowing the game was won and only 30 seconds left. It's her own fault, and needs to learn to redirect her aggression into good

She's managed to control her aggression all season long, shame to let it go here. She was getting a bit shirty earlier in the match as well.

That being said, I feel for her because players really play for frees and when you do that you're prone. Yes, players have a duty of care, but it's tough when you're trying to tackle someone, trying to stop them from disposing the ball, and meanwhile they're desperately trying to fall on their stomach and have you go into their back, all in about two seconds of time.

 

[cmndstab]

Jones will be appealing the suspension tomorrow:

AFLW: Jones to challenge one-match ban

Presumably they wouldn't be doing it if there was any risk of it becoming a two match ban. Fingers crossed they pull it off!