Preview Round 10: Western Bulldogs vs St.Kilda - Etihad Stadium (A), Saturday 27 May 2017, 1:45pm AEST

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Time for Big Paddy to get angry, crash packs and hurt people at the top level. Fire up big fella!
Time for big Paddy to string four quarters together of first and second efforts- make space, lead, mark, kick goals, assist. If he doesn't do it tomorrow, I think he will be spending the rest of the season at Sandy.
 
My take on match-ups

McCartin - Adams
Membrey - Membrey
Weller - Johannisen
Gresham - Williams
Minchington - Murphy
resting mid - Wood

Stinger/Boyd - Brown
English/Stringer - Carlisle
Picken - Roberton
Smith - Savage
Dickson - Geary

Would run Gilbert with Bontempelli everywhere - Steele to work him over in the contest if Gilbert is R2.

Need Savage to really run the ball and break the lines - assume Picken or Smith may try to go to him and Roberton. If thats the case, McKenzie needs to be that go to guy and take ownership.

Mini, Cyclops and Gresh need to clamp down badly on their halfback line. Wood will try to be the free man - need to make sure Acres, etc. make him accountable. Membrey should be able to exploit the Morris match-up.

Longer to jump into English every chance he gets because he won't catch him on the outside.

Keys for them are Stringer, Murphy and Johannisen, Boyd and Bontempelli.

Saints by 10.
 

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Neither do I. Still had luck on their side though
Every premier has luck on their side.

However the Dog win was deserved.

Beat WCE in Perth
Beat the three time premier
Beat GWS in Sydney
Beat the minor premier.

They were a worthy premier and bezt four quality top eight teams in succession

Did they have luck? Sure. Week off they got 5 players back

Ward getting injured helped with the GWS win

Buddy and Parker (or was it Hannebery) getting injured helped in the GF.

They also had a numbers of season ending injuries to key players.

Saying they are overrated sounds envious to me.
 
How does one overrate the premier?

Do you think they were lucky to win the flag?

Very easily. I will preface this by saying I was actually going for the Dogs in GF last year so this is not sour grapes. I was wrapped that the Doggies snagged one, I can't stand the Swans. That being said, I think there is a pretty strong argument there was a solid dose of luck with how things unfolded last year:

1. A premiership always has an element of luck if you are unable to beat other sides that participate in a finals series. Sydney, GWS, Hawthorn (last year) & Geelong had all shown they were capable of beating ALL other top 8 sides. The Dogs have an absolute bogey side in the Cats, literally would have been no chance had they played them.

2. A percentage of 115% was a fair indication of where they were at. Good side, but not a great side. Very unusual to win a flag with a percentage that low. In 2012 we finished with a percentage as high as 120% from memory and didn't even make finals. They can claim injuries blah blah, but I would argue their injuries were no worse than other flag sides have had to deal with.

3. Great effort to beat GWS, that can't be disputed. Are they a better side than GWS though? I am not convinced. They played a young side in their first ever prelim, who had just obliterated Sydney 2 weeks earlier. It was assumed they were a walk up start for the GF, not a good head space for a young group to be in. If they beat them again in finals this year, I will concede they are much better than I thought. I don't see it happening personally.

4. As I said earlier, I was going for the Dogs GF day but that was comfortably the biggest bum reaming from the umps on a GF day for a long time. Normally the umpiring does not play a part GF day, but last year. Wowee. Watched the game at a BBQ where 2 fanatical Doggies supporters mates were present, and even they were gobsmacked. They were loving every minute of it, some real game changing calls went there way.

5. What are the chances Tom Boyd plays like that on GF day? Seriously 5%, maybe 10%? I would stand corrected if he had come out this year and carried on his form, like Hawkins did after the 2011 breakout GF. However, this has most definitely not happened. Straight back to being captain concrete hands.

6. Finally, the Doggies remind me of us a bit in 2010 heading into 2011. FWIW, I think we would have been pretty lucky to win in 2010 as well (definitely not 2009 when we deserved it). The game plan relies on unrelenting pressure to win, but it is no longer resulting in blowouts. It should concern Dogs that they are not beating anybody comfortably. They have to slog out almost every game in order to get the win. All of the good premiership sides of the 21st century had the ability to destroy teams. (Hawks, Swans, Cats, WC, Port, Brisbane, Essendon in 2000). Dogs just are not on that level.

At the end of the day though if you are Dogs supporter, who really cares? You won, lucky or not, you are still the premier. However, the relevance for this week though, is I am the most confident I have been playing the reigning champ since we played Hawks in 2009. Not saying we definitely win, because we are not that good yet, but I don't buy that the Dogs are anything more than a mid table team either. Should be a very good game.
 
Every premier has luck on their side.

However the Dog win was deserved.

Beat WCE in Perth
Beat the three time premier
Beat GWS in Sydney
Beat the minor premier.

They were a worthy premier and bezt four quality top eight teams in succession

Did they have luck? Sure. Week off they got 5 players back

Ward getting injured helped with the GWS win

Buddy and Parker (or was it Hannebery) getting injured helped in the GF.

They also had a numbers of season ending injuries to key players.

Saying they are overrated sounds envious to me.

As much as i hated them winning the flag before us, credit were credit is due. They made their own luck and things did fall into place for them finals time. But the saying goes 'you make your own luck' and with the injuries that had, they certainly worked harder than most for it.
 
You guys must be stoked that Roo won't be tormenting you after 15 years.
He's a huge out, I'd love/hate to know what his goal average vs the Bulldogs is, surely it's higher than his career average.

Morris would be happy too, always gets Roo even though he gives up a bit of height as he's the only defender we've had over the journey that can run with him in the F50 because he times his leads so well.
 

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In terms of footy knowledge, the spectrum is thus:

First hand (people involved).
Current players & coaches.

Daylight.

Recently retired players & coaches.
Players & coaches of bygone eras.
Intelligent commentators/journalists.

Daylight.

BigFooty.
Other forums.
Clueless commentators/journalists.

Daylight.

The intelligent but uninformed citizen drawing conclusions based on info given to them.
The average footy fan.

Daylight.

Facebook commenters to footy posts.
Infants.

NEVER EVER read Facebook comments!

I wouldn't say there is daylight between intelligent commentators/journalists and bigfooty posters.
 
In terms of footy knowledge, the spectrum is thus:

First hand (people involved).
Current players & coaches.

Daylight.

Recently retired players & coaches.
Players & coaches of bygone eras.
Intelligent commentators/journalists.

Daylight.

BigFooty.
Other forums.
Clueless commentators/journalists.

Daylight.

The intelligent but uninformed citizen drawing conclusions based on info given to them.
The average footy fan.

Daylight.

Facebook commenters to footy posts.
Infants.

NEVER EVER read Facebook comments!
Pretty much how I rate myself from the time I first see the game, "hey I'm being first hand!", to the end of the week where I'm all, "oh look, Facebook needs my attention". Then I cry like a baby

Rinse repeat ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
He's a huge out, I'd love/hate to know what his goal average vs the Bulldogs is, surely it's higher than his career average.

Morris would be happy too, always gets Roo even though he gives up a bit of height as he's the only defender we've had over the journey that can run with him in the F50 because he times his leads so well.
Hopefully his heir apparent will usher in a new era of molestation.
 
Yet another massive game. I feel like I'm saying that every week.

Bulldogs have the knack of always finding a way to stay in the contest and be close enough to mount a challenge in the last quarter. I doubt we will blow them away.

If we can bring the clearance work and contested ball numbers from last week whilst cleaning up our disposal and controlling the tempo I'll back us in.

Mattress to kick 4
Ross yet another 30+
JB to continue his great form with 25 and 3
JC 7 intercept marks and 5 rebound 50s
Gilbo to run with bont and close down his space. Will hold him to under 20 disposals and zero influence (ok maybe I'm getting hopeful here)


Saints by 16
 
Riewoldt's career average is 2.16 goals per game. Against the Doggies its 2.32.
Weird, he always seems to have massive games against us
 
He has higher goals per game averages against Melbourne, Brisbane, Essendon & Richmond.

He only kicked 4 goals in his first 7 games against the Doggies. He averages 3 goals per game against the Doggies after that.
I think early on Morris and Lake did pretty well on him. Maybe not quite in the Harry Taylor mould, but I seem to recall the Dogs defense doing well against Roo.

I think the aura of Riewoldt against the Dogs well and truly comes into play come finals time.
 
Every premier has luck on their side.

However the Dog win was deserved.

Beat WCE in Perth
Beat the three time premier
Beat GWS in Sydney
Beat the minor premier.

They were a worthy premier and bezt four quality top eight teams in succession

Did they have luck? Sure. Week off they got 5 players back

Ward getting injured helped with the GWS win

Buddy and Parker (or was it Hannebery) getting injured helped in the GF.

They also had a numbers of season ending injuries to key players.

Saying they are overrated sounds envious to me.
I am envious.
Envious as *.

I never said they didnt deserve it.
They did. I was baracking for them against sydney.

But luck always plays a part.
They weren't the best team last year but the got the job done at the time when it counts.
On the other hand 2009 we were the best team in the comp but got unlucky when it counted.

We beat them last year and i think since then we have improved overall (although a bad week last week)

They improved September last year but i dont think they are as good right now as they were then.

They are overrated right now for what they have produced this year.
 
Every premier has luck on their side.

However the Dog win was deserved.

Beat WCE in Perth
Beat the three time premier
Beat GWS in Sydney
Beat the minor premier.

They were a worthy premier and bezt four quality top eight teams in succession

Did they have luck? Sure. Week off they got 5 players back

Ward getting injured helped with the GWS win

Buddy and Parker (or was it Hannebery) getting injured helped in the GF.

They also had a numbers of season ending injuries to key players.

Saying they are overrated sounds envious to me.
Why are you putting words in my mouth?

I'm not saying they didn't deserve it because they absolutely did.

I also didn't say they are overrated.

I simply said they were lucky and you've just agreed with me in your post?
 
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