Prediction Round 11: Changes Vs Collingwood

[Deathly]

Do we actually think that Darcy can cover the ground that Grundy covers coming off an injury?

I'm keen for no change, but maybe I'm in the minority.

No way. He can't even cover the ground for four quarters when fit.

 

[XXRL]

No way. He can't even cover the ground for four quarters when fit.

Exactly, so why the movement to bring him in to counter Grundy? Grundy would run off him all day. At least Lobb will quell his influence in the midfield, if not in the hit-outs.

 

[FreoRicci]

Do we actually think that Darcy can cover the ground that Grundy covers coming off an injury?

I'm keen for no change, but maybe I'm in the minority.

Exactly. Ain’t coming in against elite ruck like that. Two weeks for Peel then see how fit he is for Port. Jones could be alright. But Darcy is a way off.

 

[Deathly]

Exactly, so why the movement to bring him in to counter Grundy? Grundy would run off him all day. At least Lobb will quell his influence in the midfield, if not in the hit-outs.

Not sure but I agree that he shouldn't come in. I'd personally keep him at Peel until his body language and second efforts improve. That would be awhile.

 

[Scham]

I seriously can't believe some people want to drop or 'rest' a young talented developing player like Brayshaw, talk about being impatient. He's been ordinary at times but still contributes and was pretty decent on the weekent.

I think theres an argument for managing a young developing player if he needs that. And if theres someone that deserves his spot in the team more than him, then that change needs to be made. He can't just be gifted games because he's young, talented and developing.

 

[MadEyeEmmy]

Darcy v Grundy would be a horror show. If Lobb’s body is up to it, give him this week as sole ruck and bring Darcy back for Port.

Also- it’s looking like DeGoey and Moore will be back for the Pies. Who do we have that can play on DeGoey? Nyhuis?

Also Mason Cox is listed as a test. Not sure if he’s the type of player that needs to return via VFL though.

 

[Kram]

I think theres an argument for managing a young developing player if he needs that. And if theres someone that deserves his spot in the team more than him, then that change needs to be made. He can't just be gifted games because he's young, talented and developing.

But despite being a bit ordinary he's playing well enough to be in the 22 anyway.

Also I think people at the club will know if he needs to be 'managed' over fans watching on TV or from the stands 50m away.

 

[wild side]

I reckon we'll be in this game for a lot of the time.
Probs just fall short being they are more experienced and at home, but I reckon it will be close FWIW

 

[Scham]

But despite being a bit ordinary he's playing well enough to be in the 22 anyway.

Also I think people at the club will know if he needs to be 'managed' over fans watching on TV or from the stands 50m away.

I agree but there are some that obviously don't agree that he's doing enough, or that others could do what he's doing plus more, and that's fair. He's not setting the game alight, just ok.

 

[FreoRicci]

I reckon we'll be in this game for a lot of the time.
Probs just fall short being they are more experienced and at home, but I reckon it will be close FWIW

Ross will have the set up. Watching Collingwood, if you really choke their forward play, they tend to struggle. Been lucky against Sydney, Essendon and Carlton in that regard.

Nyhuis is a good match up for Stephenson or De Gooey. Hughes will probably be on Gooey though. Can’t see a spot for Duman, he ll get found out for his lack of defence.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Ross will have the set up. Watching Collingwood, if you really choke their forward play, they tend to struggle. Been lucky against Sydney, Essendon and Carlton in that regard.

Nyhuis is a good match up for Stephenson or De Gooey. Hughes will probably be on Gooey though. Can’t see a spot for Duman, he ll get found out for his lack of defence.

I reckon you'll see some massive team numbers for uncontested marks this week from Collingwood. Fully expect them to basically pass it up and down the wing and across their half back line as they hold onto the ball trying to push through the zone.

Play all the Collingwood players in your DT this week, big numbers coming.

Expect us to go down by 20-30 after being over-run in the final qtr

 

[Boppo]

I reckon we'll be in this game for a lot of the time.
Probs just fall short being they are more experienced and at home, but I reckon it will be close FWIW

I'm going the other way..freezng cold, wide expanses to defend and the Pies love meeting us in the 'G. It will be ugly from the first bounce.

 

[Square Peg]

I remember that play well. Bloody annoying as Wilson was on his non-preferred side too. I suspect we have instructions to give the ball off to specific users (e.g. Wilson, Hill) at every opportunity. Yet Tucker was better positioned to kick it inside 50.

Not sure it would apply to Tucker who is a good user but in general I couldn't agree more, it is so obvious that some guys have had their kicking instinct and confidence coached out of them.
I wonder if the pose have complex statistical algorithms to prove me wrong?

 

[UYD 4 Life]

Lobb was in the bests last time he matched up on grundy.

Duman had his best game last time we played collingwood.

If Hill and Bennell get fit and in form the pressure for spots will go onto Brayshaw, Cerra, Conca and Bewley

 

[StingBitten]

Out: Pearceshaw

 

[UYD 4 Life]

Not sure it would apply to Tucker who is a good user but in general I couldn't agree more, it is so obvious that some guys have had their kicking instinct and confidence coached out of them.
I wonder if the pose have complex statistical algorithms to prove me wrong?

I think the instruction is to go long rather than short to a 50/50. Problem being a players judgement of a 50/50 is heavily dependent on there confidence in hitting targets.

I think Ross may need to place greater emphasis when reviewing and in selection on those players who are willing and able to hit kicks that others would deem to be a 50/50 over those who more consistently take the long easy option. There was definitely improvement (and sounds like a coaching emphasis) in this coming out of the back half on the weekend - front half not so much.

No doubt we currently lack the ability to consistently pick our way through a zone and hit up a short target who has a 2-3m gap on their opponent. it's something we need to improve if we want to be the best.

Currently we seem to have:
Plan A
Dominate clearances for quick entries inside 50 to score or lock it in our front half for repeat entries
Plan B
Intercept at half back and use quick ball to create scores off "fast play" inside 50 the lock it in our front half
Plan C
Intercept at half back and use our talls to mark, create a contest, create a stoppage, gain territoy

We need to add
Plan D
Intercept at half back and use short kicking to pick our way through the zone to get to half forward and hit up a lead or put it to the hotspot.

Plan D and C should swap orders and we need to improve our execution of plans A and B

 

[Scham]

I think the instruction is to go long rather than short to a 50/50. Problem being a players judgement of a 50/50 is heavily dependent on there confidence in hitting targets.

I think Ross may need to place greater emphasis when reviewing and in selection on those players who are willing and able to hit kicks that others would deem to be a 50/50 over those who more consistently take the long easy option. There was definitely improvement (and sounds like a coaching emphasis) in this coming out of the back half on the weekend - front half not so much.

No doubt we currently lack the ability to consistently pick our way through a zone and hit up a short target who has a 2-3m gap on their opponent. it's something we need to improve if we want to be the best.

Currently we seem to have:
Plan A
Dominate clearances for quick entries inside 50 to score or lock it in our front half for repeat entries
Plan B
Intercept at half back and use quick ball to create scores off "fast play" inside 50 the lock it in our front half
Plan C
Intercept at half back and use our talls to mark, create a contest, create a stoppage, gain territoy

We need to add
Plan D
Intercept at half back and use short kicking to pick our way through the zone to get to half forward and hit up a lead or put it to the hotspot.

Plan D and C should swap orders and we need to improve our execution of plans A and B

Where's the scrap for it in defence, move it to the forward line, kick it long inside 50 and allow the opposition defence to rebound, rinse and repeat plan?

 

[Scham]

No doubt we currently lack the ability to consistently pick our way through a zone and hit up a short target who has a 2-3m gap on their opponent. it's something we need to improve if we want to be the best.

We'll never improve if we don't develop our players kicking ability. If the players practised long and hard, they'd be super confident in their ability. Failure to prepare is preparing to fail.

 

[UYD 4 Life]

Where's the scrap for it in defence, move it to the forward line, kick it long inside 50 and allow the opposition defence to rebound, rinse and repeat plan?

Thats plan B executed poorly - I think john lennon had a relatable line regarding the effectiveness of planning

 

[wild side]

Anyone else see this from David Mutha#####r from WA Today :

Ruckman Sean Darcy is a shock inclusion for Saturday's match against Collingwood at the MCG after a miraculous recovery from injury that was expected to sideline him for at least another month.

Lyon said it would give the side a chance to use GWS recruit Rory Lobb up forward and again try find the right mix up forward for Fremantle.
"We think Rory has been super ... he's clearly an offensive threat and he's growing every week," Lyon said.
"He loves it (the ruck) ... you can only coach on action. His actions would suggest he's fully committed, embracing the role and ignoring the noise around that.
"I see him getting better every week ... there's incredible growth left in him, and Sean Darcy, so we'd like to see those two in tandem, and Aaron (Sandilands) behind the scenes is really helping to mentor that. Our ruck profile is very strong."

 

[UYD 4 Life]

Anyone else see this from David Mutha#####r from WA Today :

Ruckman Sean Darcy is a shock inclusion for Saturday's match against Collingwood at the MCG after a miraculous recovery from injury that was expected to sideline him for at least another month.

Lyon said it would give the side a chance to use GWS recruit Rory Lobb up forward and again try find the right mix up forward for Fremantle.
"We think Rory has been super ... he's clearly an offensive threat and he's growing every week," Lyon said.
"He loves it (the ruck) ... you can only coach on action. His actions would suggest he's fully committed, embracing the role and ignoring the noise around that.
"I see him getting better every week ... there's incredible growth left in him, and Sean Darcy, so we'd like to see those two in tandem, and Aaron (Sandilands) behind the scenes is really helping to mentor that. Our ruck profile is very strong."

I'm still trying to work out what the headline meant and how it related to the article.

Break the wheel: Lyon refuses to play Game on Thrones at Freo

 

[Docker82]

No changes.

 

[Dale147]

David Knobhead probably didn’t even attend the presser, just looked at the one on the Freo web site and went from there. Gee, it must be an easy gig being a media person WA Today, don’t even have to leave your seat.

 

[Frigate]

Good thread everyone. Well discussed IMO.

So we head into the bye rounds and we are 5-5. At the start of the year most betting agencies had us at $4 (to make the 8), we are now at $2.50. I only mention this as they do the analytics without any bias. So from that, they believe we have performed above expectations relative to other teams. It has been a year of close calls - we have probably lost more than we have won in close contests, but one stat that is important is that our biggest losing margin is by 25 points (Richmond in round 8). Also, relative to the competition, we have similar scorelines for the most part in around the 70-80 point range - some lower, some higher.
We have the best percentage that I can remember since our "rebuild" as well.

The indicators suggest we are doing ok. On top of that we have played 5 teams in the 8, and 5 teams out of the 8.

That is why this game is the "litmus test" for our team. Collingwood are second on the ladder, 5 wins in a row (even if some unconvincing), and last years grand finalists (close but no cigar). We rarely play at the G, and this is one of our 2 matches for the year. It does not get much bigger for us.

How do we approach this game? Do we look at what has us in the 8 and what has worked for the year, and keep our goals (whatever they may be) for the year, or do we adjust and change our approach.

I was one to criticise Brayshaw for disposal, however I like the fact that he scored an early goal which was difficult and his attack on the footy has not faltered, and I think he is improving. For that he stays now, when I was calling for a rest earlier. This is too big an opportunity for experience for him to rest. It makes no sense now in development. The same goes for Cerra. The difference here is the versatility. He seems to have all the time in the world, and he is a good contested grab, so I like the coaches moving him around the ground. No doubt he will be Mundy's replacement if he hangs around. Same thing, this game you do not rest him for. His disposal is an issue at times, but it will click and the WAFL is no place for him IMO now.

Hogan. Forget McCarthy, forget Lobb as genuine key forwards. Hogan is a genuine A grade key forward. Now you could put Tom Hawkins into our team and he would struggle to kick 20 goals for the year (so far) because the delivery is rubbish and the game plan is adjusting. Our whole game plan has changed and I like the look of it - we just need some changes offensively, and a big part of that is the entry into 50. The pass to Walters in the dying minute only became available because we played to the fat side of the ground, and we had no forward dragging a host of defenders into the space.

Is our game plan changing? This time last year at this point we had been beaten by 50 points, 77 points, and 59 points. This round (round 10 , 2018) we were beaten by 28 point by the Roos at home. For a comparison - The Roos were 7th on the ladder (and not expected to be in the 8). 2019 Brisbane were 5th (and not expected to be in the 8). Yep we played a higher placed side in the 8 and instead of losing by 28 points, we won, albeit after the siren (we did deserve to win overall IMO). Round 11 we played Collingwood at the G (same game different day - was Sunday) and we were beaten by 61 points.

I do not expect to win this game (Pies), however if we can avoid our biggest loss of the year that would be massive IMO. Make no mistake, Collingwood are genuine flag contenders and we are not. Pies are $3.50 to win the whole thing and we are $67. The line is 33.5 points for this match. It is not a bad bet (for Freo) considering our form this year, especially our competitiveness away from home.

Changes....none from me. Well done if you got this far. This post could be an epic fail, or it could prove to have some merit. Go Freo!

 

[vidwhal]

Is punishing for a lack of confidence a good way to build confidence given his personal game was not terrible?

Need to punish him for a lack of confidence

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