Preview Round 11: Port Adelaide vs Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Sunday 29/05/2022 @ 4:40 PM

Can we win?


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Bombers36

Premiership Player
Jul 15, 2008
3,095
1,247
Essendon
AFL Club
Essendon
I’d like to see Stewart come in as forward but apparently he’s not ready…cupboard getting pretty bare now…

OUT: Redman, Kelly, Waterman, Francis, Smith, Guelfi
IN: Ridley, Zerk, Jones, Baldwin, Wanga, Caldwell

Ridley Reid Lav
Heppell Zerk Hind
Durham McGrath Martin
Parkins Baldwin Hobbs
Jones 2MP Wanga

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Shiel Caldwell Cutler Bryan
SUB: Brand
 

eth-dog

Tier 1 WW Player
Jan 11, 2007
106,664
63,535
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
I’d like to see Stewart come in as forward but apparently he’s not ready…cupboard getting pretty bare now…

OUT: Redman, Kelly, Waterman, Francis, Smith, Guelfi
IN: Ridley, Zerk, Jones, Baldwin, Wanga, Caldwell

Ridley Reid Lav
Heppell Zerk Hind
Durham McGrath Martin
Parkins Baldwin Hobbs
Jones 2MP Wanga

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Shiel Caldwell Cutler Bryan
SUB: Brand
Why would a key defender be the sub? And why would we drop Kelly, who would be top 5 in our BnF right now?
 

Halftimehero

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 26, 2012
11,765
10,726
Front and Square
AFL Club
Essendon
Why would a key defender be the sub? And why would we drop Kelly, who would be top 5 in our BnF right now?

Who out of Parish, Merrett, Mcgrath, Wright, Martin and Redman is Kelly ahead of in the B&F? Would be touch and go if he’s ahead of Laverde, Caldwell, Perkins, Guelfi and Heppell also.

He’s been poor 1on1, one of those worst in the competition.
 

eth-dog

Tier 1 WW Player
Jan 11, 2007
106,664
63,535
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AFL Club
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Who out of Parish, Merrett, Mcgrath, Wright, Martin and Redman is Kelly ahead of in the B&F? Would be touch and go if he’s ahead of Laverde, Caldwell, Perkins, Guelfi and Heppell also.

He’s been poor 1on1, one of those worst in the competition.
Merrett, McGrath, Redman, Caldwell, Perkins, Guelfi and Heppell all behind him IMO.

Seriously, including Heppell, Perkins and Guelfi is way off the mark. None of them would be close. Heppell probably in the 15-20 range right now.
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 23, 2016
21,245
27,228
AFL Club
Essendon
He’s been poor 1on1, one of those worst in the competition.

Have we been watching the same games?

He's been defending some of the worst pressured delivery from a midfield in the AFL all year, Essendon are the only club with 2 defenders inside the Top-10 for defensive 1on1 contests this season.

Kelly has a similar performance to Tom Barrass for comparison. He's doing fine given the shitness of our whole ground defending.
 

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Mr Mojo Risin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 15, 2008
9,267
14,179
AFL Club
Essendon
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Who out of Parish, Merrett, Mcgrath, Wright, Martin and Redman is Kelly ahead of in the B&F? Would be touch and go if he’s ahead of Laverde, Caldwell, Perkins, Guelfi and Heppell also.

He’s been poor 1on1, one of those worst in the competition.
Yep he's been disappointing, but I do think that's in part trying to fit into a new backline with a team upfield who show little resistance.
 

Mr Mojo Risin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 15, 2008
9,267
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Merrett, McGrath, Redman, Caldwell, Perkins, Guelfi and Heppell all behind him IMO.

Seriously, including Heppell, Perkins and Guelfi is way off the mark. None of them would be close. Heppell probably in the 15-20 range right now.

Mick McGuane ranks the best and worst recruits of the season
Kelly is one of the worst according to McGuane.

5. Jake Kelly (Essendon)​

I’ve always rated Kelly’s ability to compete strongly and he has long been a player who can be trusted in one-on-ones.

But the former Crow has been just a bit off the boil in those areas so far this season.

Of the top 50 players to have defended one-on-one contests this season, Kelly ranks 49th for his contest loss percentage – which sits at 41 per cent.

His average disposals are down from 15.4 last season to 14 this season, his average metres gained have dropped from 244m to 182m and his average intercept possessions have slipped from 6.3 to 5.7.

With Essendon having an undersized defence, Kelly was brought in to help stem the flow and create intercept opportunities.

I’d like to see Kelly back himself to leave his post more often to create those intercepts and use his feet to get involved in more counter-attack.

It has been an underwhelming start at his new club so far, but Kelly is more than capable of turning that around.
At the ground I don't think he's as bad as the stats suggest and a lot has to do with the lack of pressure upfield and fitting into a new backline, but no way in hell is he ahead of most of those players you list IMO.

That's not to say that he should be dropped or anything as he is quality, but he hasn't been great this year even if it's been made harder on him by others.
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 23, 2016
21,245
27,228
AFL Club
Essendon
Mick McGuane ranks the best and worst recruits of the season
Kelly is one of the worst according to McGuane.

At the ground I don't think he's as bad as the stats suggest and a lot has to do with the lack of pressure upfield and fitting into a new backline, but no way in hell is he ahead of most of those players you list IMO.

That's not to say that he should be dropped or anything as he is quality, but he hasn't been great this year even if it's been made harder on him by others.

That he's rated him below SPS is enough for me to dismiss his rankings.

Kelly has been playing in a backline bereft of support up the ground, of course his stats are going to drop off.

SPS meanwhile has been given bulk midfield minutes given WCE injury list and has done.... nothing.

Most players when given bulk minutes on-ball improve their numbers.
 

Mr Mojo Risin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 15, 2008
9,267
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That he's rated him below SPS is enough for me to dismiss his rankings.

Kelly has been playing in a backline bereft of support up the ground, of course his stats are going to drop off.

SPS meanwhile has been given bulk midfield minutes given WCE injury list and has done.... nothing.

Most players when given bulk minutes on-ball improve their numbers.
How has he rated him worse than SPS?

Not entirely sure it's ranked, just ticks and crosses, but even if it is, 5th worst is higher ranked than 4th worst.
 

owen87

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 23, 2016
21,245
27,228
AFL Club
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How has he rated him worse than SPS?

Not entirely sure it's ranked, just ticks and crosses, but even if it is, 5th worst is higher ranked than 4th worst.

I was reading from top to bottom so just assumed it was in order that way.

Either way, it's not exactly a deep analysis given defenders inherently rely on what's going on elsewhere to calculate pretty much every metric he used.
 

Mr Mojo Risin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 15, 2008
9,267
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AFL Club
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I was reading from top to bottom so just assumed it was in order that way.

Either way, it's not exactly a deep analysis given defenders inherently rely on what's going on elsewhere to calculate pretty much every metric he used.
I'd suggest I've watched Kelly live this year a lot more than McGuane and like I said above I think he's been better than the stats suggest because of the other factors. However I also don't think he's been better than most of the list of players eth-dog listed.
 

eth-dog

Tier 1 WW Player
Jan 11, 2007
106,664
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No, I just thing he’s been as poor as most of them
He's clearly been better
Mick McGuane ranks the best and worst recruits of the season
Kelly is one of the worst according to McGuane.

At the ground I don't think he's as bad as the stats suggest and a lot has to do with the lack of pressure upfield and fitting into a new backline, but no way in hell is he ahead of most of those players you list IMO.

That's not to say that he should be dropped or anything as he is quality, but he hasn't been great this year even if it's been made harder on him by others.
Well that just makes me more comfortable in my assessment.
 

Halftimehero

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 26, 2012
11,765
10,726
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AFL Club
Essendon
That he's rated him below SPS is enough for me to dismiss his rankings.

Kelly has been playing in a backline bereft of support up the ground, of course his stats are going to drop off.

SPS meanwhile has been given bulk midfield minutes given WCE injury list and has done.... nothing.

Most players when given bulk minutes on-ball improve their numbers.

He came to us from a team that finished 15th and 18th the last two seasons, its a weak excuse to use Essendon’s failings this year as to why he’s underperforming.
 

Halftimehero

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 26, 2012
11,765
10,726
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Essendon
This dumb debate started because of this:



As good or as bad as you think Kelly has been, he's not getting dropped.

He's also nowhere near top 5 BnF Ethan. Wow.

Correct, he’s isn’t being dropped, we literally have no one else to play that role, that’s why we got him, he’s just been underwhelming in it.

A suggestion of top 5 B&F is ludicrous.
 
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