Preview Round 12, 2019 - Carlton vs. Brisbane Lions

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F_therest

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Oct 3, 2013
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History shows changing coach doesn’t impact the result with only 7 wins in 18 games since 2000.

Changing a coach doesn’t change means nothing when they have been so poor. They’ve won 9 games in 2 and a half seasons.
Actually your stat there proves the 'bounce' after changing a coach DOES exist.

For a club to sack a coach mid-season, it's very likely that the team has lost at least the last 5+ games in a row, with some thrashings along the way. Often the players drop their effort and look completely spiritless.

So for those teams to then win almost 50% of their games after the coach is sacked, is a huge spike on their previous run of losses.
 

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Brett C

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Oct 11, 2014
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Actually your stat there proves the 'bounce' after changing a coach DOES exist.

For a club to sack a coach mid-season, it's very likely that the team has lost at least the last 5+ games in a row, with some thrashings along the way. Often the players drop their effort and look completely spiritless.

So for those teams to then win almost 50% of their games after the coach is sacked, is a huge spike on their previous run of losses.
Have copied part of another previous post below which debunks your theory about a bounce.

"In the last 17 years with the 7 wins out of 18 for teams that have sacked their coaches, in only 2 cases was the winning team been below the team they beat on the ladder which I guess you could call an upset. Those 2 wins involved games where the teams involved where close to each other on the ladder.

In every other case the team whose coach was sacked was above on the ladder so you'd hardly call it an upset."

Plus 38% isn't almost 50%.
 

3KZ is Football

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Can do it in C# if you are in more of an Object Oriented mood, but I'd hate to interrupt the perpetual CoRoutine that you and Dylan are in!

{
public bool AlwaysMiserable = true;


public void TeamSelectionRant()

{

// begin rant
Debug.log ("Look at me!");
TomCutlerWasRobbed();
McStayScapegoat();
PictureOfMySonKickingAFootball();
BarelyRelevantFitzroyAnecdote();
}

}
BTW that picture of my son kicking a football proved quite popular, gathering a very respectable 24 likes.
 

Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
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Dan McStay taking shots seriously. Got 90 percent at least. Only McSprayed one
As a side note I saw the 360 montage of Rayner's goal on Wednesday and Quentin Hull on the ABC has taken to calling him McSpray. Completely understand supporters on bigfooty getting frustrated with him and saying that but it is pretty poor form for a professional to do so on air.
 

3KZ is Football

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Dan McStay taking shots seriously. Got 90 percent at least. Only McSprayed one
Great to hear. Dan’s greatest ever bag of goals, which was four, was actually achieved against Carlton. I’m tipping he kicks 6 tomorrow.
 

3KZ is Football

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I can’t believe we lost this one at selection again. That’s two weeks in a row!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Imagine if we were trying to “win” it at selection! Team selection come finals time is going to be most revealing. I think that when it comes to finals you need to worry less about match ups and simply go in with your best 22 footballers. Let your opponents try to match up on you.
 

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Lockie

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Down at training this pm. Lovely sunny pm in Melbourne and plenty of Lions fans. Lots of positive chat and laughs amongst the playing group. Players stayed around for 1/2hr or so, happily chatting with supporters and signing jumpers and photos with fans. Good stuff. Welll done felllas, Gees Charlie Cameron is lean! Thanks to Wesley for having their emblem of the Lion flag fluttering in the wind. Can’t wait until tomorrow. Go Lions!
 

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3KZ is Football

Brownlow Medallist
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Has he tried the Jacky Chan/Rayner kick yet.
Hey Ya
Not yet. He does all the outside of the boot stuff and around the corner work. The thing I like about that photo is he is perfectly balanced, the body is straight and he has kicked through the ball. All good tips for Dan.
 
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davemc_lions

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Aug 21, 2013
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Allison in really shows we think we too slow for Marvel.
I would of like Walker to play instead of a second ruck.. Although 2 rucks is how Fagan wants things.
I think giving Archie a few weeks is good for him, not prob so for Oscar.
Keays also could of been given another week although you say its for balance.
Everyone always worries about playing a team after coach goes. Most coaches go after a few losses so they probably due.
We are slow at starting so hope we switched on. Rather not give the Blues some hope.
Be a lot of blues fans there hoping for something
 

seanthelion

Senior List
Sep 24, 2017
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Down at training this pm. Lovely sunny pm in Melbourne and plenty of Lions fans. Lots of positive chat and laughs amongst the playing group. Players stayed around for 1/2hr or so, happily chatting with supporters and signing jumpers and photos with fans. Good stuff. Welll done felllas, Gees Charlie Cameron is lean! Thanks to Wesley for having their emblem of the Lion flag fluttering in the wind. Can’t wait until tomorrow. Go Lions!
I went there in 2016 to a session and hardly anyone was there. Got a photo with M Robbo though.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

3KZ is Football

Brownlow Medallist
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Listening to Kevin Murray in that interview on the verge of breaking down talking about how humbled he is by the club's efforts with the guernsey and it really tugged on my heart strings.. I'll be buying this jumper, imo it's easily the best commemorative Fitzroy jumper we've had in years. The other one I liked was the dark maroon with the white FFC from 2003 against the pies.
Very relevant Fitzroy anecdotes!
 

snooplions

Club Legend
Dec 2, 2013
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Bear with me for a moment. The last game for Allison was against Collingwood at the Gabba last year.. in the meantime his beard makes it look like he travelled around the world, climbed a mountain, found enlightenment and then ran most of the way like forrest gump back to Brisbane to focus on footy again.. :tearsofjoy:
 

zorkoooooooooo

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Oct 16, 2013
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Tigers percentage has plummeted tonight. Massive opportunity for us to create a bit more space in the top half of the 8 and give us a better chance of locking in a spot. (Top 4 spot absolutely possible)

No excuses tomorrow. Will accept a crappy win over a gutsy blues if need be. But really hope we can finally come out and DEMOLISH a side and have the game done by half time.

Time to show ourselves how ruthless we can be 🤞
 

Viceregal

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Aug 11, 2006
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So if dear sweet Damien

IF in the run home you have Gabba matches against Melbourne, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast (and Geelong) and other matches against Carlton (this week) and St Kilda ...
THEN the finals are a 100 per cent lock, it's just a matter of whether there is a double chance.


thinks we are a lock for the finals is that like starting an Operation thread and we are doomed?
 

Americanpies

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May 16, 2016
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Hey guys. Just coming by to ask the experts... what's with the odds in this game? The Brisbane line is 15.5 which I just find bizarre. I would have thought Brisbane are at least a 5 goal team better than Carlton at the bare minimum.

Is this just based on the Bolton sacking or is there some other reason the bookies are giving Carlton such a big chance here? I thought Etihad would suit Brisbane's fast pace style.
 

DaRick

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Jan 12, 2008
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(See avatar)
Hey guys. Just coming by to ask the experts... what's with the odds in this game? The Brisbane line is 15.5 which I just find bizarre. I would have thought Brisbane are at least a 5 goal team better than Carlton at the bare minimum.

Is this just based on the Bolton sacking or is there some other reason the bookies are giving Carlton such a big chance here? I thought Etihad would suit Brisbane's fast pace style.
1) The odds on Sportbet are all reasonably conservative from what I can tell.

2) Change of new coach creating an unknown factor.

3) Although we really should be beating Carlton regardless, our away record isn't crash hot.
 
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