Autopsy Round 12, 2020 vs Geelong

[RussellEbertHandball]

The issue is that Dixon is simultaneously the reason we are even in some games and also the reason we fall short. I'd look at others who don't show up entirely before Dixon.

Yeah Charlie has been a double edge sword at times. 2017 EF v WCE busted his arse to personally get us back in the game from 31 pts down but then misses so many shots on goal.

 

[FishingRick04]

Every loss this year has brought severe scorn from seasons past.

each time the team has come back well.

We can lament all we like, I see it we’ve beaten west coast, Richmond and Melbourne.

we were in the Saints game until the last, Brisbane was half a quarter of s**t and Geelong we sucked. Massive fatigue.

let’s move on

 

[Power Raid]

paying a price for playing tired players

ken......use our depth and rest the injured and exhausted

 

[Chewy316]

Every loss this year has brought severe scorn from seasons past.

each time the team has come back well.

We can lament all we like, I see it we’ve beaten west coast, Richmond and Melbourne.

we were in the Saints game until the last, Brisbane was half a quarter of sh*t and Geelong we sucked. Massive fatigue.

let’s move on

Our responses after losses have been very good.

My concern is the way we lost. Geelong were on a 4 day break and yet they looked as fresh as if they'd been off a bye compared to us who looked like we were running in quicksand.

I don't understand why we looked so flat because we had no reason on paper to. We have run over teams pretty much all year so last night was an outlier but it gives you reason to pause.

I just.hope they're not doing an increased mid year training load like they did in 2014.

 

[Janus]

Geelong:

Port:

 

[KenGaveUsWhatHeDeserved]

It certainly makes sense on the face of it. But we can test the Terry Wallace Theory out. I'm going to classify a blockbuster game as between two top 6 teams. Obviously rivalry games also fit into this category, but I have omitted them for ease.

I'm going to look at all home and away games from 2013 onwards, and only look at games after round 5. 2013 is an arbitrary starting point, but I'm using round 5 because by that point the ladder should be fairly representative of team performance.

In this time span, there have been 84 games between two top 6 teams (not in round 22 and not drawn). Of the 84 winning teams from those games, 64 of them have gone on to win the next game. So the winning rate is 76% after winning a blockbuster. Pretty high.

Also in this time span, there have been 569 games where either of the two teams have been in the top 6 (not in round 22 and not drawn). Of those games, 489 times the top 6 team has won. Of those 489 times, 330 times the winning team has gone on to with the next game, for a 67% winning rate.

So if you are in the top 6, you are more likely to win the next game after playing a blockbuster as opposed to not playing a blockbuster. It's the exact opposite of the Terry Wallace Theory.

This is the kind of stuff people put in a board report. That's a day worth of work to get that.

Standing and applause, that was an insightful post

 

[KenGaveUsWhatHeDeserved]

Has Dixon ever stood up in a big moment - ever? He had a chance at Kardinia Park but took too long, he had a chance in a final against WCE but got the yips, he choked late against Carlton before being saved by some R Gray magic. Almost had a mental breakdown upon arrival at the interchange area. Only last week he had the chance to bury Richmond early but failed at what he's paid very well to do. I like Charlie, I really do, but he's the most frustrating PA player I think I've ever seen. If we're relying on him to win us finals we're kidding ourselves, he'll continue to break our hearts.

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This is a damming assessment of facts.

 

[sobrave]

It certainly makes sense on the face of it. But we can test the Terry Wallace Theory out. I'm going to classify a blockbuster game as between two top 6 teams. Obviously rivalry games also fit into this category, but I have omitted them for ease.

I'm going to look at all home and away games from 2013 onwards, and only look at games after round 5. 2013 is an arbitrary starting point, but I'm using round 5 because by that point the ladder should be fairly representative of team performance.

In this time span, there have been 84 games between two top 6 teams (not in round 22 and not drawn). Of the 84 winning teams from those games, 64 of them have gone on to win the next game. So the winning rate is 76% after winning a blockbuster. Pretty high.

Also in this time span, there have been 569 games where either of the two teams have been in the top 6 (not in round 22 and not drawn). Of those games, 489 times the top 6 team has won. Of those 489 times, 330 times the winning team has gone on to with the next game, for a 67% winning rate.

So if you are in the top 6, you are more likely to win the next game after playing a blockbuster as opposed to not playing a blockbuster. It's the exact opposite of the Terry Wallace Theory.

Yes, you look at your average good team and they actually gain momentum from winning a big game.

We, meanwhile, pat ourselves on the back and then next week come out and s**t the bed.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I wonder if having a 4 day break and only focusing on recovery was actually an advantage v having a 6 day break and training?

Could it be that AFL players are over trained and this will be the dawn of a whole new focus on recovery?

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[Duckimus Prime]

My concern is the way we lost. Geelong were on a 4 day break and yet they looked as fresh as if they'd been off a bye compared to us who looked like we were running in quicksand.

Did you see Geelong's last two games against North Melbourne and St Kilda? They would've pulled up more bruised from a intraclub scratch match.

Meanwhile we had a bruising encounter with Richmond just 6 days earlier. Geelong's last tough encounter was on August 1.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Champion Data Tables from the game.

Lots of green for Geelong lots of red for Ports. Only team stat Port won was tackles by 1 50 v 49.

The rucks did their job thats why I gave them 5 and 4 votes. probably the only position we won on the ground.

Lycett 20 H.O, 8 were to advantage. Ladhams 9+Charlie 3 and 3 of those 12 were to advantage
Stanley 13 H.O, 3 to advantage. Blicavs 6 + Taylor 1 and 1 of 7 were to advantage.

Xscore us 35 v actual 31. geelong Xscore 88 v actual 91.

Marks Inside 50 us 2 them 18.
Frees Inside 50 us 1 v 3 them.

SPP took 1 middle 3rd quarter 49m out 45 degree angle for 1 pt and 5 minutes later Georgi 35m out goaled.
Woodcock kicked a goal from the 1 free about 30m out between 2 marks above.

They kick 10.4 from their 18 marks I50 and kick 1.0 from their 3 frees. Miers kicked OOTF, can't think of 3rd one.

Hawkins took 10 marks, 9 were inside 50 and 7 contested. From those 9 marks I50 he kicked 6.1 and the other 2 he passed to Simpson who marked and kicked a point and Atkins marked and kicked a goal.

Dixon took 2 marks up on the wing leading out in front of his defenders.

In the first quarter 8 inside 50's and they rushed a point. In the last quarter 8 inside 50's for NOTHING!

Another game under Hinkley where we not only have a 0.0 quarter but also a no goal quarter. Might be a new record.

 

[Chewy316]

I wonder if having a 4 day break and only focusing on recovery was actually an advantage v having a 6 day break and training?

Could it be that AFL players are over trained and this will be the dawn of a whole new focus on recovery?

On SM-G960F using
BigFooty.com mobile app

This certainly wouldn't surprise me. Geelong up until last night had managed all of their top midfielders. Dangerfield barely spent 25% in the guts the last three days. Fresh as a daisy.

I certainly think there is merit to needing to find the right balance between recovery and getting the necessary workload in. And that all along has been my theory why we have seen so many games that have seen only one team show up during this footy frenzy.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Kane Farrell is a loser of a footballer.
He’s the guy that barely touches it whenever we lose.
You can’t count on guys like him.
One trick pony.
Which is useless if you don’t find the ball.

 

[PJ Power]

Kane Farrell is a loser of a footballer.
He’s the guy that barely touches it whenever we lose.
You can’t count on guys like him.
One trick pony.
Which is useless if you don’t find the ball.

How he gets so many games is beyond me. Garner, Patmore and Hayes must really suck to be so far behind Farrell in the line up for AFL games.

 

[Smithy7]

 

[ibd77]

Geez, our credentials have been questioned all season until the Richmond game. Great reporting there.

By the way, Geelong are peaking too early. Watch them hit the wall come finals time

 

[G3TWOTYAD3S3RV]

Kane Farrell is a loser of a footballer.
He’s the guy that barely touches it whenever we lose.
You can’t count on guys like him.
One trick pony.
Which is useless if you don’t find the ball.

Hartlett ,Motlop & Dixon with 13 disposals between them. Lel


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[Moo87]

It's actually possible that Clurey gets left one out and exposed against monsters like Hawkins AND that he isn't up to standard. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

There's a lot of visual evidence over a long period of time to suggest Clurey is of questionable quality as a key defender at AFL level. But we've committed to him as our guy for the long term simply because he was the man on the spot when Carlile retired and no matter how badly he does it's just "ah well, can't expect much more when the midfield gets beaten!".

The last time we played Geelong Hawkins did not score, and had a solitary kick. From memory it was rated as his worst game since his debut year. Clurey got in the coaches votes. In fact, Hawkins hasn't had a particularly good record against us in recent times until this game.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

0.1 rushed behind Tuohy walking over the line late in the first quarter from 8 inside 50, and
0.0 in the last quarter from 8 insides 50 is the incompetence of 2019 and 2018 repeating.

Richmond had a 0.0 last quarter but we only gave them 2 inside 50's last week, and the last one was in the last 90 seconds.

This is the first double 0.X quarter in a game in the Hinkley reign. Even in the Hinkley era's 2 biggest losses, we didn't have 2, 0.X quarters in one game.

2016 86 pt loses to GWS in Canberra we kicked at least 1 goal in each quarter and when we go smashed by the crows in the July 2017 showdown by 84 pts in the wet, we only had the 2nd quarter we kick 0.2 and at least a goal in the other 3.

History in the making indeed.

Here are examples for 2019 and 2018.

2019 0.X first quarters

Rnd	T	Opponent​	Scoring	F	Scoring	A	R	M	W-D-L	Venue	Crowd	Date

R7​

A​

Collingwood

0.3 5.6 6.7 10.9​

69​

7.6 8.12 11.17 15.18​

108​

L​

-39​

4-0-3​

Docklands​

37559​

Fri 03-May-2019 7:50 PM​

R8​

H​

Adelaide

0.2 2.8 3.12 9.14​

68​

2.1 6.5 10.8 13.10​

88​

L​

-20​

4-0-4​

Adelaide Oval​

49675​

Sat 11-May-2019 7:10 PM​

R10​

A​

Hawthorn

0.0 2.3 5.7 6.13​

49​

4.1 6.2 9.5 12.8​

80​

L​

-31​

5-0-5​

York Park​

11637​

Sat 25-May-2019 1:45 PM​

R19​

H​

Greater Western Sydney

0.3 3.6 5.9 7.13​

55​

2.5 4.6 7.7 8.8​

56​

L​

-1​

8-0-10​

Adelaide Oval​

27591​

Sat 27-Jul-2019 7:10 PM​

2019 0.0 quarters

R13​

A​

Fremantle

5.1 7.5 12.7 12.7​

79​

3.2 8.4 12.6 15.10​

100​

L​

-21​

6-0-6​

Perth Stadium​

37451​

Sat 15-Jun-2019 2:35 PM​

2019 0.X last quarters

R15​

H​

Western Bulldogs

1.2 2.5 5.8 5.11​

41​

3.2 5.2 8.3 10.6​

66​

L​

-25​

7-0-7​

Adelaide Oval​

25623​

Sat 29-Jun-2019 7:10 PM​

R17​

H​

Brisbane Lions

2.1 3.4 6.4 6.13​

49​

7.1 10.6 12.12 14.13​

97​

L​

-48​

8-0-8​

Adelaide Oval​

33118​

Sun 14-Jul-2019 4:10 PM​

2018 0.0 quarters

R17​

A​

Fremantle

2.3 2.3 4.6 7.8​

50​

1.0 1.7 5.10 8.11​

59​

L​

-9​

11-0-5​

Perth Stadium​

33190​

Sun 15-Jul-2018 2:40 PM​

R15​

A​

Carlton

3.6 8.9 8.9 13.12​

90​

5.0 6.2 8.7 10.9​

69​

W​

21​

10-0-4​

M.C.G.​

26562​

Sat 30-Jun-2018 1:45 PM​

2018 0.X quarters

R3​

H​

Brisbane Lions

4.6 7.7 14.8 14.13​

97​

4.0 9.6 11.8 14.8​

92​

W​

5​

3-0-0​

Adelaide Oval​

36363​

Sat 07-Apr-2018 1:15 PM​

R5​

H​

Geelong

1.2 4.4 7.5 7.8​

50​

3.2 5.7 8.10 12.12​

84​

L​

-34​

3-0-2​

Adelaide Oval​

45372​

Sat 21-Apr-2018 7:10 PM​

R11​

A​

Hawthorn

5.2 5.3 6.6 9.7​

61​

1.2 5.3 7.7 9.10​

64​

L​

-3​

6-0-4​

York Park​

13007​

Sat 02-Jun-2018 2:10 PM​

R12​

H​

Richmond

2.2 9.5 10.7 10.12​

72​

3.3 5.6 7.8 8.10​

58​

W​

14​

7-0-4​

Adelaide Oval​

39936​

Fri 08-Jun-2018 7:20 PM​

R21​

H​

West Coast

5.1 6.2 9.2 9.4​

58​

1.1 3.2 6.5 9.8​

62​

L​

-4​

12-0-8​

Adelaide Oval​

32534​

Sat 11-Aug-2018 4:05 PM​

This was our previous lowest score in the Hinkley era. 2016 at the SCG dreadful season almost over we kicked 0.0 in the first quarter and 4.9 = 33 for the game, but only one 0.X quarter.

R20​

A​

Sydney

0.0 2.3 3.6 4.9​

33​

6.5 9.10 14.14 14.16​

100​

L​

-67​

9-0-10​

S.C.G.​

30204​

Sat 06-Aug-2016 1:45 PM​

 

[Billy Bob65]

Commiserations on the loss.

Here are the midfield frequency stats (centre bounce attendances + wings) for the game.

Overall Bounces - 22

Duursma 19 wing
Amon 19 wing
Boak 16
Rockliff 14
Gray 12
Wines 11
SPP 10
Farrell 4 wing
Butters 3
Motlop 1 wing
Ladhams 1 wing

Rucks:
Lycett 15
Ladhams 7

Centre Clearances (Lost 9-13)

Butters 2
Boak 1
Gray 1
Rockliff 1
Wines 1
SPP 1
Lycett 1
Byrne-Jones 1

Q1 - 3

Duursma 3 wing
Amon 3 wing
Rockliff 3
Boak 2
Wines 2
SPP 2

Lycett 3

Q2 - 4

Duursma 4 wing
Rockliff 4
Boak 3
Gray 3
Amon 2 wing
Wines 2
Farrell 2 wing

Lycett 2
Ladhams 2

Q3 - 6

Duursma 6 wing
Amon 5 wing
Boak 4
SPP 4
Wines 3
Butters 3
Rockliff 2
Gray 2
Farrell 1 wing

Lycett 4
Ladhsms 2

Q4 - 9

Amon 9 wing
Boak 7
Gray 7
Duursma 6 wing
Rockliff 5
Wines 4
SPP 4
Farrell 1 wing
Motlop 1 wing
Ladhams 1 wing

Lycett 6
Ladhsms 3

 

[GremioPower]

A Scott coached Geelong always come across as arrogant and spiteful of the opposition, which seem to translate to consistent PFs.

His postgame conference was really humble and down-to-earth, though.

 

[KenGaveUsWhatHeDeserved]

Kane Farrell is a loser of a footballer.
He’s the guy that barely touches it whenever we lose.
You can’t count on guys like him.
One trick pony.
Which is useless if you don’t find the ball.

That's pretty scathing. Buuuuuut I can't fault it

 

[PortWTF]

On the Kane Cornes round so far review on the AFL website they showed some pretty interesting down the ground footage which shows what we all know. Leaving Clurey one out against Hawkins for basically the whole game. I somewhat agree with the theory that we are keeping our powder dry on how we would structure up defensively against them if we met in a final, there is simply no way we would have the spare man playing so far up the ground.

That said, it seemed like we weren't switched on at all, and perhaps the internal messaging within the club before the game reflected that, although it seems strange as we were basically full strength bar injuries.

 

[OneGreatClub]

This is the kind of stuff people put in a board report. That's a day worth of work to get that.

Standing and applause, that was an insightful post

But what about in this unusual season?

 

[TeeKray]

On the Kane Cornes round so far review on the AFL website they showed some pretty interesting down the ground footage which shows what we all know. Leaving Clurey one out against Hawkins for basically the whole game. I somewhat agree with the theory that we are keeping our powder dry on how we would structure up defensively against them if we met in a final, there is simply no way we would have the spare man playing so far up the ground.

That said, it seemed like we weren't switched on at all, and perhaps the internal messaging within the club before the game reflected that, although it seems strange as we were basically full strength bar injuries.

Too clever by half for a club that hasn't made the top 4 in 13 years and has a reputation for missing finals altogether from positions they really shouldn't. Focus on getting there first. I'm much more inclined to believe it's just incompetence.