Autopsy Round 12, 2025: Hawks get swooped

[Quacker5]

WARNING! IM IN A WAITING TOOM SO THIS IS A LONG POST TO KILL SOME TIME! Feel free to ignore!

The sky isn't falling but yes, this has been a pretty dreadful season after the joy ride of last year. Remember though, a few years back we had a poll re when we thought we might contend again and the vast majority of responses were 2026 or 2027. We still might meet those expectations.

For me the most galling thing is that so many oppo supporters/ critics said last year that we had taken the comp by surprise in 2024 but coaches would work us out before 2025, and that a lot of our players had had career-best years last season that they wouldn't repeat; and whether we like it or not, that is exactly what seems to have happened. That might be a superficial reading of our slump but that's not important - what's important is we will have it thrown in our face all season long!!

Like a number of others, I am concerned about our top-heavy backline. Not Battle so much who can run and is a prefect age for us (Sic is getting on, form slump or no, and will need replacing) but Barass especially. People say he's great against monster forwards and that's true, but teams like Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong don't really have a-grade monster talls so I'm not sure being able to cover that sort of player is as important as we thought? Maybe we were scarred by Jessie Hogan getting a hold of us a few times but as it happens GWS aren't travelling much better than us now either. Maybe Barass will show his true value against the Crows when we meet them but the two additions to our backline and our sudden lack of fluidity seem a bit coincidental.

People get antsy about criticism of trading in Barass but the fact is if you trade in a 29 year old for good draft capital you have to believe you are contending pretty much right away. He's a plan for the now, not the future. And we most certainly are not contending this year unless something as dramatic as last year occurs very soon. Barass' window might only be two or three more years given his lack of mobility so if we have burnt this one already then it's looking a risky move right now.

I also do wonder what recruiting two tall defenders has done to the psyche of Scrim, Sic, Blanck, Frosty, Serong and McCabe, who all must feel a little less important now than they did last year. Frosty is playing like he thinks he has no future here, IMO. He gave us a lot last year, and Sam said he would still be part of the plan this year despite our recruitment of two key defenders, but he clearly isn't. Even Mraz must wonder who he will displace from this side in the next two or three seasons.

Serong and McCabe look like they are being reprogrammed for different roles now because suddenly we have a glut of players in their positions. Might be a good thing but it's bound to be causing some level of discomfort for them you'd think.

All of the above will pass with time but it could well be a disruptive force this year until everyone settles in.

I am worried about McKenzie. He's played 47 games now, so near enough to the magical 50 mark to have found his feet at AFL level, but he still cannot command a game in a misfiring midfield even with Day out. I am not sure the argument about just needing to get more games into him is convincing anymore; Will Ashcroft was picked in the same draft and has only played 47 games himself - either side of a year out of the game with an ACL injury - but he currently averages 10 possessions more per match and basically twice as many clearances and score involvements. It's hard to see how McKenzie just needs more opportunity to develop in that context. He's had a much better run at it than Ashcroft but is way behind him in output. In fact if you run a player comparison between Cam and any other A-graders (including Newc) at the same age, he's lagging behind all of them and well behind a lot of them. There is no empirical reason to think he will suddenly develop faster than those other players did and catch up to them now. Hope might tell us he will but hope isn't evidence. We might need to settle for having a good player and not a great one here.

If that's the case, then we desperately need to attract a genuine A-grade mid from somewhere and be prepared to give up some favoured pieces to do it if we are any hope of matching the Cats, Lions, Crows, Freo, Suns and probably even North going forward. Meanwhile perhaps Cam needs to try to find a new role, HBF distributor or something like that given we lack run in the back half and Impey and Amon are getting on a bit.

Ward is doing fairly well but again, I doubt we can say he's tracking to be another JHF or Ashcroft either. But at least he is genuinely improving and 2025 Ward is a better player than the 2024 version. He might still be a very good player.

If we are hoping to contend seriously in 2026, we really really need Calsher to come back and be at least something like our own Nate Caddy. He might. A fit Lewis would be a bonus.

I think Watson will be a star. I'm hopeful Mass and Ginni will be good. I'm not sure about CMac still - just when he's almost won me back he plays a really weak game and loses me all over again.

I do think that soon, maybe even next year, Weddle will go past Will Day as our best player and that's got to be a good thing. Weddle strikes me as the one younger guy on our list besides Day himself who has the will and the ability to actually put the team on his back when things are bad and inspire a turn around. He just needs to start seeing himself as a leader. That will take him a bit of time but I think it will come with the more games he impacts.

Someone posted our remaining draw here and gees, on our current form making the eight looks a big ask and even staying above Carlton might be a stretch. Failing to do that would just be the poo cherry on top of a pretty crappy cake this year! The onslaught of Weagles supporters on our board will be like a locust swarm from the Old Testament! I hope the folks here who taunted them are ready for it!

Great post.

I do wonder if the urgency for what barrass brings lessened as 2024 went on as our defensive method evolved, but Sam was already too far down the road on the agreement?

Whatever the case there, barrass and battle have been strong individual contributors, but our undersized bouncy key defensive structure last year worked perfectly for the game style we are/were trying to execute which was high pressure between the arcs to restrict inside 50s, force a dump kick and either swarm a loose ball or intercept mark and turn defence into offence really quickly and dynamically (“hokball”) I still believe we can evolve to maximise our assets and find a new style, but we can’t play the same way as last year at the moment

Various contributing factors to the current issues:
-Sicily diabolical
-Dylan Moore in terrible form
-will day injured (not the sole issue as others have portrayed however)
- Scrimshaw role diminished
-lack of small forward impact - largely due to a lack of a Calsher dear to halve aerial contests and involve them with soft pack drops - we are getting marked on in our forward 50 at will
-clubs prioritise fierce pressure on our kickers following port power blue print in semi final and cutting off 45 degree kicking lanes
-lack of our own pressure - tackling and general pressure well down (endeavour? Speed? Game-plan to set up players correctly to apply pressure?)
-a general Individual form drop across the board year-on-year, except only a few (Amon, Gunston, maybe Newcombe, maybe Meek) and a lack of improvement from the likes of Mackenzie (can he play wing for a period and allow us to move on from Morrison?)
-a few head scratching coaching decisions - Hardwick continually playing forward despite being a sensational small backmen, who not only stiffens up our set up but provides crafty ball use, maguiness getting any game time that doesn’t involve tagging, too many backmen being selected and a lack of flexibility in the on ball personnel.

 

[Atch]

2011 Preliminary Final

That sucked, I remember in 2008 we beat them in the year, had to double check but roughy and buddy both kicked six, mark Williams 5! What a day!

 

[Buzz Hawk]

“Hokball” is such a nebulous concept but to me it meant and means, a joyful approach to playing and celebrating the occasions. Flipping the ball around with dash and dare, not always coming off but when it did, (and it was often), it was a joy to watch. I loved the back half of last year, it was exciting . We didn’t always win but dammit, the games were fun to watch.
That just seems to have disappeared. The dare and flair and just enjoying each other’s company and achievements on the field, has gone.
Sure, other teams have gone to town on us and have really done their homework, and yes, the side hasn’t really seemed settled with some key outs both short term and long term.
But it’s more than that and I can’t put my finger on it.
In Sam and co we must trust, but unless things change and turnaround quickly, the season will be a washout.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Are you saying we didn’t get caught out by Collingwood players (who we couldn’t tackle) as they were more agile and proactive on turnover?

And we didn’t give them space in the corridor to surge (untracked) through?

And we didn’t leave them an open forward line for Elliott and Mihocek to lead up to an unpressured (untackled) kicker?

Which apparently you feel doesn’t explain why they scored so efficiently for those opportunities?

What was the reason we lost then?

We must have watched a very different game.

You don't need Pete to point it out though do you? Perhaps we should have Scott Maginess point out why we beat Collingwood when it next happens, there's a conflict of interest that means you play a straight bat to the question. Or you simply say " The boys had a plan and they executed it very well on the night" your still saying the same thing. We are going to agree to disagree on this so I'll just leave it and move on for now.

 

[HedgeFund]

You don't need Pete to point it out though do you? Perhaps we should have Scott Maginess point out why we beat Collingwood when it next happens, there's a conflict of interest that means you play a straight bat to the question. Or you simply say " The boys had a plan and they executed it very well on the night" your still saying the same thing. We are going to agree to disagree on this so I'll just leave it and move on for now.

Fine - I think he was entitled to make a comment during a post match radio interview that wasn’t initiated by him.

You think he should’ve been more diplomatic.

Fair enough. It’s not worth getting worked up about IMHO.

 

[Franko Armani]

We have a tough run home.
Adelaide twice (gee they looked good tonight)
Freo in Freo (now seem awesome after crap start)
Melbourne (see Freo)
Port (Ken fires them up)
Pies again
Bris in Brisbane
Dogs next week
Blues
Saints (but Marvel where they are ok)
Roos (Clarko will get em up)
Nowhere near as confident as I was a month back.

Will lose every single game if our boys keep coasting like they have all year.

 

[SSSSSS]

How many reality checks do we need before the penny drops to these players.

 

[Franko Armani]

We have 1 good mid in our current starting 22 and that’s where the issue lies //// end thread.

 

[Franko Armani]

Great post.

I do wonder if the urgency for what barrass brings lessened as 2024 went on as our defensive method evolved, but Sam was already too far down the road on the agreement?

Whatever the case there, barrass and battle have been strong individual contributors, but our undersized bouncy key defensive structure last year worked perfectly for the game style we are/were trying to execute which was high pressure between the arcs to restrict inside 50s, force a dump kick and either swarm a loose ball or intercept mark and turn defence into offence really quickly and dynamically (“hokball”) I still believe we can evolve to maximise our assets and find a new style, but we can’t play the same way as last year at the moment

Various contributing factors to the current issues:
-Sicily diabolical
-Dylan Moore in terrible form
-will day injured (not the sole issue as others have portrayed however)
- Scrimshaw role diminished
-lack of small forward impact - largely due to a lack of a Calsher dear to halve aerial contests and involve them with soft pack drops - we are getting marked on in our forward 50 at will
-clubs prioritise fierce pressure on our kickers following port power blue print in semi final and cutting off 45 degree kicking lanes
-lack of our own pressure - tackling and general pressure well down (endeavour? Speed? Game-plan to set up players correctly to apply pressure?)
-a general Individual form drop across the board year-on-year, except only a few (Amon, Gunston, maybe Newcombe, maybe Meek) and a lack of improvement from the likes of Mackenzie (can he play wing for a period and allow us to move on from Morrison?)
-a few head scratching coaching decisions - Hardwick continually playing forward despite being a sensational small backmen, who not only stiffens up our set up but provides crafty ball use, maguiness getting any game time that doesn’t involve tagging, too many backmen being selected and a lack of flexibility in the on ball personnel.

2 excellent posts there. Sums it up nicely.

I will say that this was my only live game for the year and the Suns game last year was my only live game for the year. On reflection, they both looked at exactly the same …. Minus the humidity.

 

[Franko Armani]

My only live game last year was the Suns game and Friday night is my only live H&A for the year. Both games looked identical, minus the humidity. We did turn it around after that, obviously. Main concern is having 1 genuinely great midfielder. Butler had 11 tackles on the weekend, must come in to this midfield on recent form.

 

[nickrebellious]

Are we a bit cooked from the Darwin trip still? Suns were saying their players lost a bit of weight from those games.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Are we a bit cooked from the Darwin trip still? Suns were saying their players lost a bit of weight from those games.

Let's use this as an excuse all year.

 

[TONYC3163]

Will lose every single game if our boys keep coasting like they have all year.

 

[Linda CRS]

WARNING! IM IN A WAITING TOOM SO THIS IS A LONG POST TO KILL SOME TIME! Feel free to ignore!

The sky isn't falling but yes, this has been a pretty dreadful season after the joy ride of last year. Remember though, a few years back we had a poll re when we thought we might contend again and the vast majority of responses were 2026 or 2027. We still might meet those expectations.

For me the most galling thing is that so many oppo supporters/ critics said last year that we had taken the comp by surprise in 2024 but coaches would work us out before 2025, and that a lot of our players had had career-best years last season that they wouldn't repeat; and whether we like it or not, that is exactly what seems to have happened. That might be a superficial reading of our slump but that's not important - what's important is we will have it thrown in our face all season long!!

Like a number of others, I am concerned about our top-heavy backline. Not Battle so much who can run and is a prefect age for us (Sic is getting on, form slump or no, and will need replacing) but Barass especially. People say he's great against monster forwards and that's true, but teams like Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong don't really have a-grade monster talls so I'm not sure being able to cover that sort of player is as important as we thought? Maybe we were scarred by Jessie Hogan getting a hold of us a few times but as it happens GWS aren't travelling much better than us now either. Maybe Barass will show his true value against the Crows when we meet them but the two additions to our backline and our sudden lack of fluidity seem a bit coincidental.

People get antsy about criticism of trading in Barass but the fact is if you trade in a 29 year old for good draft capital you have to believe you are contending pretty much right away. He's a plan for the now, not the future. And we most certainly are not contending this year unless something as dramatic as last year occurs very soon. Barass' window might only be two or three more years given his lack of mobility so if we have burnt this one already then it's looking a risky move right now.

I also do wonder what recruiting two tall defenders has done to the psyche of Scrim, Sic, Blanck, Frosty, Serong and McCabe, who all must feel a little less important now than they did last year. Frosty is playing like he thinks he has no future here, IMO. He gave us a lot last year, and Sam said he would still be part of the plan this year despite our recruitment of two key defenders, but he clearly isn't. Even Mraz must wonder who he will displace from this side in the next two or three seasons.

Serong and McCabe look like they are being reprogrammed for different roles now because suddenly we have a glut of players in their positions. Might be a good thing but it's bound to be causing some level of discomfort for them you'd think.

All of the above will pass with time but it could well be a disruptive force this year until everyone settles in.

I am worried about McKenzie. He's played 47 games now, so near enough to the magical 50 mark to have found his feet at AFL level, but he still cannot command a game in a misfiring midfield even with Day out. I am not sure the argument about just needing to get more games into him is convincing anymore; Will Ashcroft was picked in the same draft and has only played 47 games himself - either side of a year out of the game with an ACL injury - but he currently averages 10 possessions more per match and basically twice as many clearances and score involvements. It's hard to see how McKenzie just needs more opportunity to develop in that context. He's had a much better run at it than Ashcroft but is way behind him in output. In fact if you run a player comparison between Cam and any other A-graders (including Newc) at the same age, he's lagging behind all of them and well behind a lot of them. There is no empirical reason to think he will suddenly develop faster than those other players did and catch up to them now. Hope might tell us he will but hope isn't evidence. We might need to settle for having a good player and not a great one here.

If that's the case, then we desperately need to attract a genuine A-grade mid from somewhere and be prepared to give up some favoured pieces to do it if we are any hope of matching the Cats, Lions, Crows, Freo, Suns and probably even North going forward. Meanwhile perhaps Cam needs to try to find a new role, HBF distributor or something like that given we lack run in the back half and Impey and Amon are getting on a bit.

Ward is doing fairly well but again, I doubt we can say he's tracking to be another JHF or Ashcroft either. But at least he is genuinely improving and 2025 Ward is a better player than the 2024 version. He might still be a very good player.

If we are hoping to contend seriously in 2026, we really really need Calsher to come back and be at least something like our own Nate Caddy. He might. A fit Lewis would be a bonus.

I think Watson will be a star. I'm hopeful Mass and Ginni will be good. I'm not sure about CMac still - just when he's almost won me back he plays a really weak game and loses me all over again.

I do think that soon, maybe even next year, Weddle will go past Will Day as our best player and that's got to be a good thing. Weddle strikes me as the one younger guy on our list besides Day himself who has the will and the ability to actually put the team on his back when things are bad and inspire a turn around. He just needs to start seeing himself as a leader. That will take him a bit of time but I think it will come with the more games he impacts.

Someone posted our remaining draw here and gees, on our current form making the eight looks a big ask and even staying above Carlton might be a stretch. Failing to do that would just be the poo cherry on top of a pretty crappy cake this year! The onslaught of Weagles supporters on our board will be like a locust swarm from the Old Testament! I hope the folks here who taunted them are ready for it!

Well said, Barras may have improved our backline marking slightly but last year Sicily would take some of those. Go back to last year, Frost closing speed far better than Barras and Battle, Hardwick permanently kicking well out of the backline, Scrimshaw the same, Sicily confident kicking well. In the background injured Blank known for closing speed. Games getting quicker year on year yet weve got slower, lack back line balance and sadly still need lack another class midfielder.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

You're right. The amount of messages I'm receiving from Dons fans is next level this weekend.

Ive actually got a pretty measured Bombers mate funnily enough who doesn't really sink the boot in at all. Has a pretty good knowledge of footy and thinks we will be ok just have to lift in a couple of areas. Watches alot of footy which doesn't always apply to people who support just 1 team. They only watch their team play and that's it.

 

[burger09]

As others have already noted without Battle and Barras we'd be absolutely screwed.

Sis and Scrimmers are out of form/fitness. Frost and Blank are just going in the VFL post injuries.

Our problems lie further afield.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

This board is funny reading at the minute with totally opposite views on

Ward
Finn
Barras and Battle
Chol
CJ
MacDonald
Morrison
Mackenzie
Hustwaite
Mitchell

It highlights the inconsistent form and application of the team as a whole

 

[Liverbird]

Hawthorn had their 3rd lowest pressure rating of all time on Friday night…. but sure, ColLingWoOD wRkeD uS oUT!!!

The Lions and Pies losses are on Hawthorn, not some magical coaching strategy that the oppo has brought to the table.

Love how the majority of folks will gloss over this point SYL, when it was a massive contribution to the games outcome, especially the second half.

My main concern is why as a team we are underperforming across the board.

Sure there may be better teams in it this year but as a team we are not performing to the standards we set last year.

The senior players (Sicily, Impey, Moore) are all well down in last year.

My hope is that once Dear returns and with one good win, the confidence will be back.

It was against the Dogs the debut of Dear turned our season from bottom 4 to a finals charge.

My biggest fix...move Sicily out of backline, the opposition are targeting him and gaining momentum from his errors or his opponents kicking goals on him.

We are in a hole but as SYL stated, we have the capability to turn it around. It is in our hands.

Heads up...go Hawkers.

 

[cryptor]

Unreal analysis. We never stood a chance when you watch this.

This is the downside of flying high in May. Now there's 3-4 months of everyone looking at how to beat your system.

If Sam can introduce a few new tweaks to our game plan to get it really going then there might not be time for anyone to do the same to us.

 

[Come back Cyril]

Unreal analysis. We never stood a chance when you watch this.

That is superb analysis

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[Sixpence]

No we haven't. For starters, we're in the top 6. We haven't played Adelaide, we only have our selves to blame for the Geelong loss and getting within a kick of GC in Darwin I'd call a win. It's really only the top 2 we've "failed the test" against.

 

[cryptor]

3:30 so much space with just 3 Hawthorn players in it. Feel like Impey could have hit Watson fairly easily but instead goes long.

 

[Endorphin Machine]

That is superb analysis

they set up well with that v formation. The key to beating it is to play on immediately. They cant set it up if the ball is constantly in motion or by changing angles.

 

[Del33640]

Fine - I think he was entitled to make a comment during a post match radio interview that wasn’t initiated by him.

You think he should’ve been more diplomatic.

Fair enough. It’s not worth getting worked up about IMHO.

You need to think in overall context.

49-24.

That's the Hawthorn vs. Pies record head to head since 1980.

The 2011 Prelim you mentioned was one in an insanely close game. The Pies were $3 favorites.

That's one win. It ignores that Daicos Sr. was beaten up on by Hawthorn his whole career pretty much.

Then he's watched his sons get beaten by us, including the Nick D. 7 possie injury game.

A lot of these wins have happened when Collingwood was the consensus better team. Were it not for the Cloke monstering on our undersized back years, it would probably be an even worse overall record.

No-one is getting worked up over one comment. But that guys has given years of snide takes whenever he sees a chance to pot us.

Peter Daicos is more headf'd than just about any Hawthorn hater out there. He's a KB level Hawthorn hater, and has been since the 80s.