Preview Round 13 2019: Adelaide vs Richmond - Thursday, 13 June, Adelaide Oval, 7:50 PM

Status
Not open for further replies.

leemo

Club Legend
Oct 2, 2012
1,119
3,954
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Celtic FC, New Orleans Pelicans
1560217529442.png

The Season so far...

Adelaide
It's been a mixed bag so far for the Crows, who have won some tough games against the odds while managing to drop games to weaker opponents along the way.
They come in to this game in great form having just knocked off the Giants at home, while the week before they completed a stirring 32 point comeback to defeat the Demons by 2 points in the Northern Territory. Adelaide have flown under the radar off the back of a solid last month of footy to sit 5th on the table with 7 wins.

Richmond
Much the same as Adelaide, the Tigers have had a mixed year so far. They've put in some good performances when they've had their backs against the wall, however have lost games to teams outside the 8. Much of their mixed form could be attributed to the fact that key players have been missing for most of the year - this could turn out to be a blessing in disguise however as they've been able to get some experience in to some exciting youngsters. Richmond comes into this game off the back of two disappointing losses to North Melbourne and Geelong by a combined 100+ points.

Recent History
9004458-3x2-700x467 (1).jpg

Adelaide have got the recent edge over Richmond, having won 4 of the last 6 matches. Unfortunately for them, one of those matches was the 2017 Grand Final.
The Tigers easily accounted for the Crows in the most recent matchup, defeating them by 47 points at the MCG in Round 16 last year.

Key Match-Ups

Dylan Grimes vs Eddie Betts
Eddie+Betts+2017+AFL+Grand+Final+Adelaide+UcY8j26VwiGl.jpg

The Richmond fan-favourite has been given the tall order of matching up with one of the best small forwards the game has seen in recent times. However, with the losses of Alex Rance and David Astbury, Dylan's role has been more the backline general of late, playing loose as often as possible to be the intercept marker. Whether or not they line up directly on each other though, these two players will have a huge impact on the result. Betts is Adelaide's leading goal kicker for the season and is currrently 9th in the Coleman race with 24 goals.

Trent Cotchin vs Rory Sloane
sloanecotch.PNG

The two skippers both pride themselves on their contested ball winning ability. In at least the last 5 matches between these sides, the winner has won the contested possessions count. Each side will want their captain to lead from the front and get their side hands on the ball first - expect a fierce matchup between these two competitors.

Tom Lynch vs Daniel Talia

587024-tlslargelandscape.jpg

The Tiger's star off-season recruit is overdue for a big game. Aside from a 6 goal haul against Port in round 4, the big man has failed to stamp his authority in the Richmond forward line and has had a few quiet weeks in a row. Talia is a key component of the Adelaide back 6 and one of the best big defenders in the competition - Lynch will want to at least compete in the contest and bring the ball to ground to give the smalls a run at it, if he can't get on the score sheet himself to curtail Talia's influence.

Stats that matter

* The Tigers rank 4th in the competition for inside 50's this season with 55 per game, yet only average 11.3 goals per game (11th). The Crows are much more efficient, averaging 11.6 goals per game from 53.3 i50's per game.
* Adelaide have really stepped up their tackle game this year, and are 2nd in the comp averaging 65.9 tackles per game. Richmond are ranked 9th in the comp for tackles.
* Matt and Brad Crouch are 6th and 8th resepectively for average disposals per game this season.
* Trent Cotchin is 3rd in the competition for average inside-50's per game

Possible Changes:

Adelaide:
IN: Tom Lynch, Chayce Jones, Bryce Gibbs, Darcy Fogarty
OUT: Richard Douglas, Hugh Greenwood

Just going off the Crows board, they all want Douglas dropped. Hugh Greenwood was an out last week and earnt a reprieve after Lynch did his calf in the warm-up, expect that change to happen if Lynch is fit. You'd have to think Gibbs is a chance for selection.

Richmond:
IN: Nick Vlastuin, David Astbury, Brandon Ellis, Shai Bolton, Nathan Broad
OUT: Dan Butler, Jason Castagna, Jacob Townsend, Jack Graham, Jack Higgins

It will come down to fitness of a few key personnel. If fit, Vlastuin, Astbury and Ellis are automatic selections. After a disappointing thrashing to the Cats though, the selection axe will surely be swung regardless and looking at the stats sheet, the listed names above would all be in the firing line. You'd like to think Patrick Naish did enough to earn another game. Bolton responded well to being dropped in the VFL with 25 touches, a huge 11 tackles and a goal.

Blokes We'd Like To See Get Cleaned Up:
tex.PNG

Final Word
On paper, with all the outs, Adelaide have probably got the stronger team. Richmond's defence looks quite shaky if Astbury doesn't get up, and even if he does, the Crows have got quite a bit of firepower up there. With Lynch and a number of goal scorers out of form up the other end, it's going to be hard to see Richmond kicking a big score against Adelaide's solid defence.
It may sound cliche but this is very much a game that will be won and lost in the middle. The Tigers will need huge games out of Dusty and Cotch and hope that at least one of the multitude of smalls bobs up and kicks a few goals. Richmond simply need to win the contested possessions and the clearances to give themselves a chance at kicking a winning score.
The Crows have also likely got the edge in the ruck, with young and inexperienced Ivan Soldo carrying the duties with Nankervis injured. Big Ivan can certainly get his hands on it, but doesn't offer as much around the ground as young Reilly O'Brien who is having a great year for a young ruck. Last week vs Geelong, no other Richmond player won a hitout- the Tigers simply can't have Josh Caddy taking centre bounces and need Noah Balta to impose himself when given the chance.


Prediction:

Richmond by 143 Points

r0_265_5184_3191_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
5,479
6,286
AFL Club
Richmond

The Season so far...

Adelaide
It's been a mixed bag so far for the Crows, who have won some tough games against the odds while managing to drop games to weaker opponents along the way.
They come in to this game in great form having just knocked off the Giants at home, while the week before they completed a stirring 32 point comeback to defeat the Demons by 2 points in the Northern Territory. Adelaide have flown under the radar off the back of a solid last month of footy to sit 5th on the table with 7 wins.

Richmond
Much the same as Adelaide, the Tigers have had a mixed year so far. They've put in some good performances when they've had their backs against the wall, however have lost games to teams outside the 8. Much of their mixed form could be attributed to the fact that key players have been missing for most of the year - this could turn out to be a blessing in disguise however as they've been able to get some experience in to some exciting youngsters. Richmond comes into this game off the back of two disappointing losses to North Melbourne and Geelong by a combined 100+ points.

Recent History

Adelaide have got the recent edge over Richmond, having won 4 of the last 6 matches. Unfortunately for them, one of those matches was the 2017 Grand Final.
The Tigers easily accounted for the Crows in the most recent matchup, defeating them by 47 points at the MCG in Round 16 last year.

Key Match-Ups

Dylan Grimes vs Eddie Betts
The Richmond fan-favourite has been given the tall order of matching up with one of the best small forwards the game has seen in recent times. However, with the losses of Alex Rance and David Astbury, Dylan's role has been more the backline general of late, playing loose as often as possible to be the intercept marker. Whether or not they line up directly on each other though, these two players will have a huge impact on the result. Betts is Adelaide's leading goal kicker for the season and is currrently 9th in the Coleman race with 24 goals.

Trent Cotchin vs Rory Sloane
The two skippers both pride themselves on their contested ball winning ability. In at least the last 5 matches between these sides, the winner has won the contested possessions count. Each side will want their captain to lead from the front and get their side hands on the ball first - expect a fierce matchup between these two competitors.

Tom Lynch vs Daniel Talia

The Tiger's star off-season recruit is overdue for a big game. Aside from a 6 goal haul against Port in round 4, the big man has failed to stamp his authority in the Richmond forward line and has had a few quiet weeks in a row. Talia is a key component of the Adelaide back 6 and one of the best big defenders in the competition - Lynch will want to at least compete in the contest and bring the ball to ground to give the smalls a run at it, if he can't get on the score sheet himself to curtail Talia's influence.

Stats that matter

* The Tigers rank 4th in the competition for inside 50's this season with 55 per game, yet only average 11.3 goals per game (11th). The Crows are much more efficient, averaging 11.6 goals per game from 53.3 i50's per game.
* Adelaide have really stepped up their tackle game this year, and are 2nd in the comp averaging 65.9 tackles per game. Richmond are ranked 9th in the comp for tackles.
* Matt and Brad Crouch are 6th and 8th resepectively for average disposals per game this season.
* Trent Cotchin is 3rd in the competition for average inside-50's per game

Possible Changes:

Adelaide:
IN: Tom Lynch, Chayce Jones, Bryce Gibbs, Darcy Fogarty
OUT: Richard Douglas, Hugh Greenwood

Just going off the Crows board, they all want Douglas dropped. Hugh Greenwood was an out last week and earnt a reprieve after Lynch did his calf in the warm-up, expect that change to happen if Lynch is fit. You'd have to think Gibbs is a chance for selection.

Richmond:
IN: Nick Vlastuin, David Astbury, Brandon Ellis, Shai Bolton, Nathan Broad
OUT: Dan Butler, Jason Castagna, Jacob Townsend, Jack Graham, Jack Higgins

It will come down to fitness of a few key personnel. If fit, Vlastuin, Astbury and Ellis are automatic selections. After a disappointing thrashing to the Cats though, the selection axe will surely be swung regardless and looking at the stats sheet, the listed names above would all be in the firing line. You'd like to think Patrick Naish did enough to earn another game. Bolton responded well to being dropped in the VFL with 25 touches, a huge 11 tackles and a goal.

Blokes We'd Like To See Get Cleaned Up:

Final Word
On paper, with all the outs, Adelaide have probably got the stronger team. Richmond's defence looks quite shaky if Astbury doesn't get up, and even if he does, the Crows have got quite a bit of firepower up there. With Lynch and a number of goal scorers out of form up the other end, it's going to be hard to see Richmond kicking a big score against Adelaide's solid defence.
It may sound cliche but this is very much a game that will be won and lost in the middle. The Tigers will need huge games out of Dusty and Cotch and hope that at least one of the multitude of smalls bobs up and kicks a few goals. Richmond simply need to win the contested possessions and the clearances to give themselves a chance at kicking a winning score.
The Crows have also likely got the edge in the ruck, with young and inexperienced Ivan Soldo carrying the duties with Nankervis injured. Big Ivan can certainly get his hands on it, but doesn't offer as much around the ground as young Reilly O'Brien who is having a great year for a young ruck. Last week vs Geelong, no other Richmond player won a hitout- the Tigers simply can't have Josh Caddy taking centre bounces and need Noah Balta to impose himself when given the chance.


Prediction:

Richmond by 143 Points

View attachment 690550
Excellent preview, we need to win this to get the season back on track.Keep Townsend in the team, the Crows **** themselves when he's around.
 

Michaels

Moderator
Feb 4, 2006
12,614
31,198
AFL Club
Richmond
great work leemo

I think Dimma has ruled Astbury out earlier today unfortunately. That in itself make's it tough with the bigger Crows forwards.

It's going to be all about the contested possession for me. If we get slapped in that area again we will be in for another big loss I fear.


With the bye around the corner I'm hoping they can push themselves hard for 4 quarters before getting a break.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
16,120
19,767
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
We are in bad form, they are in good form. I think we will get smashed. However apparently Thursday might be wet, so pray for rain. That is our best chance as it negates their talls and makes it more of a who wants it more scrap and that's where I reckon we can beat them.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom