Round 14 Discussion Thread (Dedicated to Test Tickle)

[gutsroy]

Thursday, June 20 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon (OS) (N)

West Coast
Shannon Hurn (599k, BE 160, avg 113.5) stands to shed 15-25k and is thus mildly overpriced. The Thighmaster is realistically best left until rd 15 if possible. His pre-bye injury out came at a bad time for would-be owners, stalling his price drop.

Jack Darling (440k, 3-rd avg 100) and Josh Kennedy (369k, 80 3-rd avg) may attract some interest. They represent some potential value at the price and WCE have a decent fixture on the run home, but realistically both would be speculators with prospects no better than Buddy Franklin (e.g.).

The Eagles have several MID eligible options at reasonable prices including undefeated AFL middleweight title holder Andrew Gaff (565k, 109 avg, 108 BE) is a dependable high floor, low ceiling type, Elliot Yeo (583k, 104 AVG, 142 BE) stands to lose some value and is currently overpriced but has a massive ceiling with his contested work and tackling. Luke Shuey at 543k with a season average of 102 seems to present limited value.

Dom Sheed is a figment of your imagination, the Pies won the 2018 flag and he doesn’t exist.

The sheep of Australia have made their choice.

Essendon:
Zach Merrett benefited from Dylan Shiel’s return and had a huge second half on the way to a 138. At 561k and a 112 avg, he is pretty much correct weight.

Darcy Parish (502k MID/FWD) belted out another 110, his average over the last month. He seems to finally put his jealousy towards his sister Marcia to bed and his football is benefiting from it. He still represents a speculator.

Michael Hurley (462k DEF) has a 5-rd average of 98 and could be an interesting POD. Most will have not considered him due to concerns related to his more accountable role, but whatever he’s doing, it’s been working.

Dylan Clarke (147k MID) is on the bubble. Backing up his 99 against Carlton, he scored a solid 76 against Hawthorn and nullified Jaeger O’Meara. With a BE of -87 and few other options on the horizon, he is as close to a must-have as you’ll find at this time of year.

Woosha also helpfully didn’t shitcan him in this week’s post-game press conference. Worsfold may not be the Antichrist after all. (They’re certainly drinking buddies, though.)

 

[gutsroy]

Friday, June 21 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn (SCG) (N)
Sydney Swans:
Fresh off the bye, the Swans have a number of SC options.

Luke Parker does not come cheap at 621k, but he has a 5-rd average of 130 and a manageable BE of 115. The Swans have a reasonable fixture on the way home and Isaac Heeney’s niggles and Josh Kennedy’s absence have meant Parker has been spending more time in the midfield. You have to believe that this will continue if you are thinking of selecting him as 620k at this time of the year is überpremo coin.

Jake Lloyd might be a seagull and enjoy (fully consensual) intimate acts with goats, but the reality is that he has sensational DE, kicks more than he handballs, is often involved in scoring chains, ruthlessly exploits the kick-in rules and gets a heap of it. Moral objections are all well and good, but he’s been doing this for a while, there is no change in sight and you’re either prepared to pony up the cash or you’re not.

Isaac Heeney (448k, MID/FWD DPP, BE 89) has been a failed starting pick with a season average of 91.5. There are reasons (hip/ankle niggles clearly limiting him), but that doesn’t do owners any good. The week off might help a little and with many holding useless shittrucks like Jeremy Cameron, he’s likely not your highest trade-out prospect if you’ve held him this long.

Dane Rampe (505k DEF, 96 avg, 113 5-rd avg) has been on a hot streak. Apparently, climbing the goalpost is worth +30 and putting on circus acrobatics that cost your side a 50m penalty and gifted goal to a bloke shaky on setties +20. He might attract the attention of those interested in a low ownership option or who like collecting ‘different cats’, but realistically Tom Stewart, James Sicily and Luke Ryan seem more reliable and come around the same price.

Dane Rampe reacts to news of F6 Jeremy Cameron’s insipid underpant stain costing him a cashie win

Lance Franklin represents huge upside potential at 370k, but comes with a clear durability risk and a mild case of the muffin tops. Those with the luxury of shopping around for an F7 might take a closer look as he has a genuinely huge ceiling if right. Would be a risk at F6, though.

Hawthorn:
James Sicily at 487k and coming off an 87 remains a popular DEF addition and still represents the best value /upside combination in the Hawks’ ranks if he returns to his backline role full-time. He spent significant time forward in the first half against the Bombers and this impacted his scoring.

Ricky Henderson had another great game and posted a 121. He is seeing a heap of time in the middle, is never going to be the opposition’s no. 1 target as long as O’Meara plays and could be one for the rugged individualists at 517k, but only if you’ve got enough überpremos at M1-5.

Jaeger O’Meara comes at a price of 443k. He posted a poor 43 off 24 possessions against the Bombers as Dylan Clarke effectively blanketed him. He does represent some value but could attract run-withs in some games on the run home.

James Worpel has been a solid starting pick but will attract limited interest as a trade-in and Jack Gunston will get cheaper after a fairly inconspicuous 58 at 436k with a BE of 142. This still makes him ten times the man Jeremy Cameron will ever be. Did I mention that Jeremy Cameron is s**t?

 

[gutsroy]

Saturday, June 22 Melbourne vs. Fremantle (MCG)

Melbourne:

Max Gawn (706k, 109 BE) is the premier ruckman in the game. The price is huge and he would have to average 140-odd to score to price, but he needs to be in your final team. Those with Reilly O’Brien will likely wait, all others just need to find a way to make it happen.

Clarinald Oliver (539k MID) has had a disappointing season. He has been nullified in two games and his poor DE has cost him in others. Despite this, he is still averaging 107 and has a 5-rd average of 116. He is worthy of consideration for those without given his form uptick.

Angus Brayshaw’s scoring and price plummeted after the early rounds as he was forced out onto a wing. He has had considerably more time in the guts in the last two games and at 423k with a BE of 69 could be a ‘buy low, sell high’ steal, but only if he can retain his role in the middle. On a wing, his tackle count and contested possessions drop off hugely and his disposal doesn’t compensate for it, it’s hit and miss.

Marty Hore (418k, BE 39, 88 avg) has been a revelation as an intercept / rebound defender. Some may hold him at D6 for the season, others will look to move him on in rd 15

Fremantle

Nat Fyfe again excelled with a 129 and at 624k is a supremely captainable option for those without him and who aren’t worried by his tendency to miss games on the run home in recent years.

David ‘Old Man’ Mundy has already dropped 55k to 499 and will likely be as cheap as 450k with his BE still at 181 (and let’s face it, there’s only one Reilly O’Brien, folks). Might be an option in rd 15.

Michael Walters’ again won Fremantle the game and scored a huge 158 with key goals and great usage. 540k is a big price and he surely has to attract more attention, but his run of form can’t be denied.

Luke Ryan is another DEF benefitting from the kick-in bonus and has a very high ceiling. His price stayed stable at 524k despite a slightly underwhelming 87. Could have been worse, you could have gone Wayne Milera.

Connor Blakely at 447k and with a 90 average probably the base case started strongly but finished on 79. He might need to see time in the midfield to bump that up to a 95+ clip, which you’d be wanting to see. Has that in him, he’s a player.

Brett Bewley posted a 57 and rose to 155k. That he retained his spot despite the return of Stephen Hill was a relief for owners, but Harley Bennell is inching closer to availability for selection and Adam Cerra will likely return sooner rather than later. Switkowski and Tucker may be dropped before Bewley.

Griffin Logue (164k DEF) played well in his first game of 2019 after an injury-plagued 2018 and late start to 2019 due to a hamstring issue. It is not realistic to expect him to keep scoring at 90+, but he should have OK JS and may be capable of a 65-75 average in the middle term. Might be a handy cheap D7 plug.

 

[gutsroy]

St Kilda vs. Brisbane Lions (MRVL) (T)

St Kilda
St Kilda also boasts some premos, chief among them Rohan Marshall (FWD,489k).

Marshall has averaged 102 and notched up a 122 on the weekend, with some deft tapwork despite coming up against Jarrod Witts, strong marking around the ground and nice forward cameos.

Jack Billings was the clear standout on the weekend, notching up a stellar 169 as he returned to the middle after having been played forward due to illness in Shanghai . It was the complete performance by Billings, including excellent kicking for goal (often a weakness in the past), nice contested work and some defensive efforts. His price has risen to 456k, his BE lies at 46. Hats off to Jack. Sincerely.


Jade Gresham (aka The Gresh Prince) has a 3-rd average of 102 and is priced at 429k. He could be a value option if you think he can come home strongly.

Jack Newnes is in a similar category to Worpel.

Dan Hannebery may be edging closer to a return. Probably better to wait and see exposed form there, but he apparently looked very sharp in the twos and could come straight in this week.

Brisbane Lions

Lachie Neale (MID,578k, 124 BE) will be heavily traded in coming off the bye given his excellent first half of the season. His 3-rd avg is a shade below 100, but his full-year average lies at 124. The only conceivable reason to skip Neale would be if you were very worried about a potential De Boer tag in rd 16 or his SC finals fixture.

Dayne Zorko has quietly put together a solid season and was good value for those who grabbed him when he bottomed out in rd 6. At 524k, with a BE of 140 and average of 98, he’s not a priority this week.

Daniel Rich (476k) and Harris Andrews (481k) are both viable D4-D6 options. Andrews lives and dies on contested marks, spoils and one-percenters and at 481k realistically doesn’t offer a heap of value anymore, he’s around correct weight or maybe even mildly overpriced. Rich represents better value as he has been more consistent and his floor is raised by virtue of the kick-in bonus. He has had the consistency he had lacked in years past. Let’s all put our hands together for Dan…

 

[gutsroy]

Port Adelaide vs. Geelong Cats (AO) (N)

Port Adelaide:

Travis Boak again excelled with a 121. 527k for a 113 average remains strong and with a BE of 62 he will cost you more next week, but you’d like to see a 105 average at the price. Seems eminently capable of that.

Tom Rockliff surprisingly missed, given he nearly played in Shanghai. If you’ve got him, hold if he is named.

Robbie Gray rose 31k to 437k on the back of a 99 and playing higher up the ground. The true test will be where he is played when Rockliff, Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert return.

Justin Westhoff (373k,BE 52, 90 last round) put in a strange performance. Played primarily forward in the first three quarters, he looked like turning out a very low score, but played loose down back in the last quarter and scored more than 50 points on the back of mop-up work.

Xavier Duursma has been a tremendous cash cow. At 382k and with a BE of 72, he can safely be moved on this week if needed to facilitate upgrades but can also be held without much risk. Either way, thank you young X, it has been a pleasure. Please come this way, young calf. What’s that? No, mate, that’s not a stun bolt, it’s a magical dream hammer. You won’t feel a thing, maaate.

Geelong:

Patrick Dangerfield and Tim Kelly need no introduction. If you don’t have them, get them. Both MID/FWD DPP stallions.

Tom Stewart at 497k and a 101 average is a really solid option down back. Very consistent, gets a kick-in boost (a little less since Tuohy’s return, but still going well) and is a great reader of the play. He is a viable alternative to Sicily and Ryan for those who prefer high floor, low ceiling types.

Tom Hawkins is everything Jeremy Cameron is not. He’s as solid a KPP as you’ll find in the FWDs this year and the Cats have a good run home. 511k and a 98 average to date.

 

[gutsroy]

Sunday, June 23 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood (MRVL)

Western Bulldogs:

Caleb Daniel: On the back of a 114, Daniel rose to 510k with a BE of 65. It wasn’t all smiles and sunshine, however, as his DE was uncharacteristically poor in the first half in particular. He remains a solid pick but not really value after last week’s price rise.

Jason Johannisen doesn’t come at a bargain price (488k DEF), but has a very solid 93 average on the year and 103 over his last three games.

Josh Dunkley: Went off like a frog in a sock for an incredible 173 and 3-rd average of 140. Has risen 30-odd k to 596k. If you’re keen on him, it’s now or never with his 63 BE. The form man of the comp and with Tom Liberatore likely to miss significant time with injury, concerns of Dunkley moving forward are probably a thing of the past. Which is good given his kicking efficiency is not flash.


Libba owners before / after he carked it on the home straight

Jackson Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli: Both scored well on the weekend (150and 112) and both should also benefit somewhat from Liberatore’s injury. Bontempelli is the value pick at 534k for a 112 average.

Ryan Gardner remains a handy downgrade target for some with his FWD/DEF DPP and 102k bargain basement price. If he misses selection down the track, he may be useful for looping given the Dogs’ late round games on the run home. Doesn’t shape as a huge money spinner and gave a critically acclaimed rendition of The Invisible Man on the weekend, but will suit some trading plans.

Collingwood:

Brodie Grundy lowered his colours to Gawn before the bye (maybe due to an ankle niggle, but either way, Gawn clearly had his measure). At 676k and with a 198 BE, he should shed some value, but also stands to post a strong score against young Dogs ruck Tim English, which might tempt some to just bring him in this week anyway. Given there’s a chance the ankle is still bothering him a bit, it probably makes sense to wait.
Edit: As pincrusher kindly pointed out, it seems the issue was / is neck-related. Appears to be right to play, but keep your eyes peeled.

Scott Pendlebury put in an uncharacteristically poor game against Melbourne, scoring 67. It has been a famine / feast season for him, either going huge or somewhere in the 70-80 range. At 560k and with a 132 BE, he is not a priority at a 105 average. In case you weren’t aware, he used to play basketball.

Adam Treloar has basically the same average and comes much cheaper at 508k. His disposal is hit and miss, so he needs volume. His disposals are at a career high, his CP rate solid, his marking has picked up, but his kick to handball ratio remains poor and his tackling has been down (-2 tackles/game compared to peak output). His kicking efficiency is poor at 57%.

The impact of Taylor Adams and Brayden Sier is hard to gauge. (Adams could be a low cost smoky for the run home from rd 15 onwards as he stands to drop to around 460k and has 105-110 in him.)

Jordan De Goey is averaging 90 on the season and with his output always liable to fluctuate, doesn’t represent huge value at 487k unless you think he can average nigh on 100 on the run home.

Jack Crisp is sadly subpremo this year. At 450k and with an 88 average, he’s lodged firmly in No Man’s Land and is not worth considering until / if he can string some better performances together. His DE is poor and he is just not getting enough volume to offset it. He also overuses the short handball and his tackle / defensive numbers are off. A bit off his tucker this year.

 

[gutsroy]

Byes: Adelaide Crows, Carlton, Gold Coast SUNS, GWS GIANTS, North Melbourne, Richmond

 

[stevebbb]

Legend! Love it!
Great start to the SC week

 

[pincrusher]

Just to clarify, Bucks said Grundy nearly missed due to a neck issue, not his ankle. All eyes on the updated injury list tomorrow.

 

[Jiska]

Terrific work once again gutsroy

 

[Requiem]

If gutsroy hasn't already had a dedicated thread then I nominate you!

 

[hoddo]

Just to clarify, Bucks said Grundy nearly missed due to a neck issue, not his ankle. All eyes on the updated injury list tomorrow.

Collingwood's June 18th injury report is up.
Grundy - neck - TBC, but goes on to say … "Grundy almost missed the Queen's Birthday clash with Melbourne but should be fine to face the Western Bulldogs after the Pies' round 13 bye, "

 

[Kadog]

Good stuff gutsroy

 

[Benno_900]

Woosha also helpfully didn’t ****can him in this week’s post-game press conference. Worsfold may not be the Antichrist after all. (They’re certainly drinking buddies, though.)

He kinda did...

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...no-guarantees-for-clarke-20190615-p51y06.html

 

[Crazy Tails]

Nice work on the write ups!

Any word from out West as to whether Hurn will get up this week. My opponent in my main league has both he and Rocky and both of them missing would help me greatly.

 

[Benno_900]

Nice work on the write ups!

Any word from out West as to whether Hurn will get up this week. My opponent in my main league has both he and Rocky and both of them missing would help me greatly.

Hurn is likely to play.

 

[SavDog23]

 

[pincrusher]

View attachment 694457

View attachment 694461

What did you score the first two rounds?

 

[SavDog23]

What did you score the first two rounds?

1890 and 1696. Projected 1900+ both weeks. Bullsh1t.

 

[enobrien]

So De Boer out for 8. Thank you Cunners.

Don’t even start with Hately you campaigners

 

[evo]

do we dare to dream?

 

[rocker_oz33]

WTF is this .

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

WTF is this .

Stupidity.


In fluro.

 

[pincrusher]

I'm BETTING that Stephenson will be out this week.

 

[DT_35]

De Boar out for 8 weeks! All hail King Hately!

In b4 they bring some other dud in lol