Preview Round 14: Hawthorne vs Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Thursday 27/08/2020 @ 4:40 AEST

Who shall have more points by full time?


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eth-dog

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Observations

Hawthorne: Started on fire with the first 3 goals, but Port Adelaide kicked 7 of the next 9 before it turned into an arm wrestle, Port eventually going down by 10 behinds, so could have lost by 5 or 6 goals. Tom Mitchell had 25 disposals and 11 tackles through the midfield whilst small forwards Chad Wingard and Shaun Burgoyne kicked 2 goals apiece against their former club

Essendon: Bombers were unlucky with a 12 behind loss against the Tigers, the back line were excellent, only conceding 10 goals despite Richmond having 66 inside 50's. Irving Mosquito was electric on debut, kicking two goals along with James Stewart and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, whilst Zach Merrett was excellent with 34 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal and two assists in a continuation on his good form.


Head to Head (last 5)

Hawthorne 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

Hawthorne: 1W 4L
Essendon: 0W 4L 1D


Sportsbet odds

Hawthorne: $
Essendon: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Hawthorne vs Essendon

FB: Matt Guelfi - Cale Hooker- Adam Saad

FF: Jarman Impey - Jonathan Patton - Luke Breust
HB: Martin Gleeson - Michael Hurley - Jordan Ridley
HF: Chad Wingard - Mitch Lewis - Shaun Burgoyne
MF: Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett - Brayden Ham
MF: Tom Scully - Danie Howe - Changkuoth Jiath
HF: Devon Smith - James Stewart - Irving Mosquito
HB: Jack Scrimshaw - Sam Frost - Will Day
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Joe Daniher - Jake Stringer
FB: Blake Hardwick - Michael Hartley - Ben Stratton
OB: Samuel Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Ben McEvoy - James Worpel - Tom Mitchell
IC: Andrew McGrath - William Snelling - Mason Redman - Dylan Clarke
IC: James Cousins - Conor Glass - Oliver Hanrahan - Liam Shiels

Hawthorne in: Mitchell Lewis; Out: Tim O'Brien

Essendon in: Cale Hooker, Joe Daniher; Out: Aaron Francis (hamstring), Tom Bellchambers


Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line

So far this season Essendon averaged 20.6% in terms of goals/inside 50, which has slipped to the bottom 6 of the AFL after starting off around the top 4. Hawthorne have one of the weakest defensive groups this year, conceding a goal 23.8% of the time it enters their defensive 50, the third highest % in the AFL. This will be exascerbated by the fact that star defender James Sicily is out for the rest of the year, and Essendon are likely to bring Joe Daniher in for the last few games of the year, who will receive attention from former Bomber Michael Hartley in his second game for the Hawks. James Stewart and Sam Frost will be reacquainted, the former Giants teammates having crossed paths since they left for Melbourne and Essendon respectively, Frost having shaded him in those games, whilst former Hawthorne academy player Irving Mosquito is likely to be matched up on exciting young talent Will Day.


Midfield/rucks battle

Hawthorne are 15th in clearance differential to Essendon's 11th whilst the two are 17th and 16th in contested possession differential respectively, which indicates neither are particularly good at winning the ball at the coalface. With Jaeger O'Meara possibly missing this match the Hawks will be hoping James Worpel and Tom Mitchell can stand up in his absense, Dylan Clarke a possibility to tag one of them, whilst Daniel Howe is likely to go to Zach Merrett as he has done on previous occassions, the star Bomber has had a recent upturn in form and also averaging 30 disposals against the Hawkes, but that will allow Andrew McGrath and Dylan Shiel to get off the chain a little bit more on the inside, along with Darcy Parish who splits his time between the middle and inside 50. On the outside, Essendon will also have an advantage with Kyle Langford having the best year of his career on a wing with stints inside 50, the much improved Will Snelling and youngster Brayden Ham going head to head with the aging Tom Scully who seems past his best, Changkuoth Jiath and the underwhelming James Cousins as well. Rucks wise, Ben McEvoy will be looking to use all his considerable experience against Essendon's young gun Sam Draper, who has pretty much sewn up the #1 ruck spot for next year, former Giants Jonathan Patton and James Stewart will be their support cast respectively


Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence

Hawthorne's forward line is one of the weakest in the AFL too, kicking a goal only 20.1% of the time it enters forward 50. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 7th overall in the AFL. The Dons are likely to welcome back important defender Cale Hooker into their back line, the tall likely to take young gun Mitchell Lewis, who has had a disappointing year for the Hawks, whilst Michael Hurley will probably take star recruit Jonathan Patton, 2nd game back from another hamstring injury. Most of Hawthorne's goals if Gunston fails to return this game come from Chad Wingard and Luke Breust, the two small forwards having kicked 23 goals between them this year, the pair likely to get Martin Gleeson and Adam Saad respectively, with Mason Redman also a possible match up for the Hawthorne small forwards.


X-Factor Player

Changkuoth Jiath not only has one of the best names in football, he has some serious talent. The guy is a running machine, has the rare ability to be quick and run all day that so few players possess. One to look forward to if you're a Hawthorne supporter


Key stat

Hawthorne: Defensive conversion. It's one of their weakest areas in the game, they have to clamp down on Essendon's average forward line if they're to win.

Essendon: Clearances. When they win, they're +20 in clearance differential so far this season, when they lose they're -12.


Tip

Probably our last winnable game for the year. Dons by 22.
 
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DallasCrane316

Club Legend
Sep 22, 2014
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I don’t see why we bother at this point. Can’t make finals. Keep getting screwed over.

Send our 2nds and 3rds over to play and get the AFL try to market that game.

Get the rest of our players to go home and spend time with their families. It’s not worth it anymore.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
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OUT: TBC, Francis, Snelling
IN: Daniher, Hooker, Hibberd

We really need some players that are able to stick a tackle. Hibberd can do that. Snelling has been good for us but he may need a week off.
 

Seb78

Club Legend
Aug 27, 2008
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We dont win this, we may as well just start all over again.

Here's hoping we continue to persist with the youth at least.

Ins: BZT, Crauford
Outs: T Bell, Francis (inj)
 

Halftimehero

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Would need to be at least 5 changes made surfer? Quick turn around after playing in Darwin, would be a few cooked boys I would imagine.

Hooker for Francis
Hibberd for Snelling
Daniher for Bellchambers
Cutler for Ham
Begley for Clarke

McGrath looks cooked so wouldn’t be suprised to see him have a break at some stage to be honest.
 

TheGreatBarryB

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No more breaks, they’re playing effectively three quarter games. Didn’t do Francis much good. 5 games left...let’s go all in...except Daniher of course, he can’t play all five.
 

Duckworth

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Francis --> Hooker (or BZT if not ready)
TBC --> Daniher (or McKernan if JD isn't ready)
Ham --> Hibberd (to take AMTs midfield time)

That leaves the Back 6 as they were solid
Midfield: Shiel, McGrath, Parish, Clarke, Hibberd, Merrett

Forwardline:
Langford, Daniher, Walla
Mozz, Stewart, Stringer
 

TazHawk15

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Could quite possibly be the first ever AFL game without a free kick being paid.

Take the night off umps, the two bad guys can fight it out to the death
Spot on

You guys got reamed by the umpires last night and I defy any neutral supporter to have a gander at the umpiring the Hawks had to put up with yesterday and not come up with the conclusion it bordered on cheating.

Still you have to give credit to PA for being so good they did not concede a single free kick in a pretty frenetic game for an entire complete half of footy. o_O
 

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Howard Moon

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Spot on

You guys got reamed by the umpires last night and I defy any neutral supporter to have a gander at the umpiring the Hawks had to put up with yesterday and not come up with the conclusion it bordered on cheating.

Still you have to give credit to PA for being so good they did not concede a single free kick in a pretty frenetic game for an entire complete half of footy. o_O
I like how Hinkley acknowledged it, "sometimes it goes with you, sometimes it doesn't, I can understand how hard it is be when it dosent"

That's akin to saying we profited from poor umpiring

Least you don't have morons going on Insta...

:/
 

eth-dog

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Hopefully Clarko persists with Patton and Spud O'Brien this week. Hooker can deal with Patton whilst Hurley can destroy O'Brien. Saad on Wingard, Gleeson on Breust, Guelfi on Burgoyne and Redman on Hanrahan.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
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Spot on

You guys got reamed by the umpires last night and I defy any neutral supporter to have a gander at the umpiring the Hawks had to put up with yesterday and not come up with the conclusion it bordered on cheating.

Still you have to give credit to PA for being so good they did not concede a single free kick in a pretty frenetic game for an entire complete half of footy. o_O
Apparently Essendon and Hawthorn opponents are incredibly disciplined every week.
I like how Hinkley acknowledged it, "sometimes it goes with you, sometimes it doesn't, I can understand how hard it is be when it dosent"

That's akin to saying we profited from poor umpiring

Least you don't have morons going on Insta...

:/
Zak Butters copped abuse on instagram. Every team has dumb supporters.
 

vass44

Senior List
Sep 17, 2016
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Serious question- do those picking Daniher in their 22 really think he will play? We can’t make finals now and given his history honestly what’s the point? I personally don’t think he will ever play again in red and black


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

JT_the_Man

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Apparently Essendon and Hawthorn opponents are incredibly disciplined every week.

Zak Butters copped abuse on instagram. Every team has dumb supporters.
Having seen the Butters one, I’m not sure that was a Hawthorn supporter. I’m pretty sure that was someone who takes their gambling way too seriously.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
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Having seen the Butters one, I’m not sure that was a Hawthorn supporter. I’m pretty sure that was someone who takes their gambling way too seriously.
Could have been a Hawthorn fan just like the Ward and Grimes messages could have been other supporters. There are flogs all over social media and every team has them in spades.
 

Howard Moon

Brownlow Medallist
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Serious question- do those picking Daniher in their 22 really think he will play? We can’t make finals now and given his history honestly what’s the point? I personally don’t think he will ever play again in red and black


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
All the more reason to play him!

Gumbletron put me on to hegemonic transition theory...

Theory that all failing empires start a war to try to contain the rising successor.

Translated here, we play Joe, he plays well and boosts value or he goes down it lessens his impact at next club. Win win
 

JT_the_Man

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Serious question- do those picking Daniher in their 22 really think he will play? We can’t make finals now and given his history honestly what’s the point? I personally don’t think he will ever play again in red and black


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
For those in the “he’s gone anyways” camp, the point of playing him is to increase his trade value.
 

ant555

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Serious question- do those picking Daniher in their 22 really think he will play? We can’t make finals now and given his history honestly what’s the point? I personally don’t think he will ever play again in red and black


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Well the point is based on what your own opinion is. Those who see some hope of him staying have no issue with him saying.Opinions.
 

Mikevk123

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Jun 25, 2019
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B Saad Zerk-Thatcher Gleeson
HB Ridley Hurley Redman
C Langford McGrath Merrett
HF Smith Daniher Tipungwuti
F Stringer Stewart Mosquito
FOLL: Draper Shiel Parish
INTER: Clarke,Ham, Crauford, Guelfi


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cAsEy_18

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Really doesn't matter who we bring in or out.

But in a crazy season, at least there are positives.

Draper seems to be as good as advertised.
Ridley is better than that.

We have 5 games left. What else can we add to that?

Think playing Mosquito 3-4 of those and seeing if Dreamtime was just a flash in the pan, or if he's a guy we can genuinely consider picking Round 1 next year is an obvious option.
If Joe would be so kind to grant us with his presence, that'd be great. Otherwise, we know Bellchambers is wasting our time - Crauford seems a logical next choice.

Zerk another 2-3 games before the seasons out wouldn't hurt either. I liked him coming into this year, but he's been disappointing.
 
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