eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Hawthorne: Started on fire with the first 3 goals, but Port Adelaide kicked 7 of the next 9 before it turned into an arm wrestle, Port eventually going down by 10 behinds, so could have lost by 5 or 6 goals. Tom Mitchell had 25 disposals and 11 tackles through the midfield whilst small forwards Chad Wingard and Shaun Burgoyne kicked 2 goals apiece against their former club
Essendon: Bombers were unlucky with a 12 behind loss against the Tigers, the back line were excellent, only conceding 10 goals despite Richmond having 66 inside 50's. Irving Mosquito was electric on debut, kicking two goals along with James Stewart and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, whilst Zach Merrett was excellent with 34 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal and two assists in a continuation on his good form.
Head to Head (last 5)
Hawthorne 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Hawthorne: 1W 4L
Essendon: 0W 4L 1D
Sportsbet odds
Hawthorne: $
Essendon: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Hawthorne vs Essendon
FB: Matt Guelfi - Cale Hooker- Adam Saad
FF: Jarman Impey - Jonathan Patton - Luke Breust
HB: Martin Gleeson - Michael Hurley - Jordan Ridley
HF: Chad Wingard - Mitch Lewis - Shaun Burgoyne
MF: Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett - Brayden Ham
MF: Tom Scully - Danie Howe - Changkuoth Jiath
HF: Devon Smith - James Stewart - Irving Mosquito
HB: Jack Scrimshaw - Sam Frost - Will Day
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Joe Daniher - Jake Stringer
FB: Blake Hardwick - Michael Hartley - Ben Stratton
OB: Samuel Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Ben McEvoy - James Worpel - Tom Mitchell
IC: Andrew McGrath - William Snelling - Mason Redman - Dylan Clarke
IC: James Cousins - Conor Glass - Oliver Hanrahan - Liam Shiels
Hawthorne in: Mitchell Lewis; Out: Tim O'Brien
Essendon in: Cale Hooker, Joe Daniher; Out: Aaron Francis (hamstring), Tom Bellchambers
Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line
So far this season Essendon averaged 20.6% in terms of goals/inside 50, which has slipped to the bottom 6 of the AFL after starting off around the top 4. Hawthorne have one of the weakest defensive groups this year, conceding a goal 23.8% of the time it enters their defensive 50, the third highest % in the AFL. This will be exascerbated by the fact that star defender James Sicily is out for the rest of the year, and Essendon are likely to bring Joe Daniher in for the last few games of the year, who will receive attention from former Bomber Michael Hartley in his second game for the Hawks. James Stewart and Sam Frost will be reacquainted, the former Giants teammates having crossed paths since they left for Melbourne and Essendon respectively, Frost having shaded him in those games, whilst former Hawthorne academy player Irving Mosquito is likely to be matched up on exciting young talent Will Day.
Midfield/rucks battle
Hawthorne are 15th in clearance differential to Essendon's 11th whilst the two are 17th and 16th in contested possession differential respectively, which indicates neither are particularly good at winning the ball at the coalface. With Jaeger O'Meara possibly missing this match the Hawks will be hoping James Worpel and Tom Mitchell can stand up in his absense, Dylan Clarke a possibility to tag one of them, whilst Daniel Howe is likely to go to Zach Merrett as he has done on previous occassions, the star Bomber has had a recent upturn in form and also averaging 30 disposals against the Hawkes, but that will allow Andrew McGrath and Dylan Shiel to get off the chain a little bit more on the inside, along with Darcy Parish who splits his time between the middle and inside 50. On the outside, Essendon will also have an advantage with Kyle Langford having the best year of his career on a wing with stints inside 50, the much improved Will Snelling and youngster Brayden Ham going head to head with the aging Tom Scully who seems past his best, Changkuoth Jiath and the underwhelming James Cousins as well. Rucks wise, Ben McEvoy will be looking to use all his considerable experience against Essendon's young gun Sam Draper, who has pretty much sewn up the #1 ruck spot for next year, former Giants Jonathan Patton and James Stewart will be their support cast respectively
Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence
Hawthorne's forward line is one of the weakest in the AFL too, kicking a goal only 20.1% of the time it enters forward 50. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 7th overall in the AFL. The Dons are likely to welcome back important defender Cale Hooker into their back line, the tall likely to take young gun Mitchell Lewis, who has had a disappointing year for the Hawks, whilst Michael Hurley will probably take star recruit Jonathan Patton, 2nd game back from another hamstring injury. Most of Hawthorne's goals if Gunston fails to return this game come from Chad Wingard and Luke Breust, the two small forwards having kicked 23 goals between them this year, the pair likely to get Martin Gleeson and Adam Saad respectively, with Mason Redman also a possible match up for the Hawthorne small forwards.
X-Factor Player
Changkuoth Jiath not only has one of the best names in football, he has some serious talent. The guy is a running machine, has the rare ability to be quick and run all day that so few players possess. One to look forward to if you're a Hawthorne supporter
Key stat
Hawthorne: Defensive conversion. It's one of their weakest areas in the game, they have to clamp down on Essendon's average forward line if they're to win.
Essendon: Clearances. When they win, they're +20 in clearance differential so far this season, when they lose they're -12.
Tip
Probably our last winnable game for the year. Dons by 22.
Hawthorne: Started on fire with the first 3 goals, but Port Adelaide kicked 7 of the next 9 before it turned into an arm wrestle, Port eventually going down by 10 behinds, so could have lost by 5 or 6 goals. Tom Mitchell had 25 disposals and 11 tackles through the midfield whilst small forwards Chad Wingard and Shaun Burgoyne kicked 2 goals apiece against their former club
Essendon: Bombers were unlucky with a 12 behind loss against the Tigers, the back line were excellent, only conceding 10 goals despite Richmond having 66 inside 50's. Irving Mosquito was electric on debut, kicking two goals along with James Stewart and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, whilst Zach Merrett was excellent with 34 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal and two assists in a continuation on his good form.
Head to Head (last 5)
Hawthorne 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Hawthorne: 1W 4L
Essendon: 0W 4L 1D
Sportsbet odds
Hawthorne: $
Essendon: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Hawthorne vs Essendon
FB: Matt Guelfi - Cale Hooker- Adam Saad
FF: Jarman Impey - Jonathan Patton - Luke Breust
HB: Martin Gleeson - Michael Hurley - Jordan Ridley
HF: Chad Wingard - Mitch Lewis - Shaun Burgoyne
MF: Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett - Brayden Ham
MF: Tom Scully - Danie Howe - Changkuoth Jiath
HF: Devon Smith - James Stewart - Irving Mosquito
HB: Jack Scrimshaw - Sam Frost - Will Day
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Joe Daniher - Jake Stringer
FB: Blake Hardwick - Michael Hartley - Ben Stratton
OB: Samuel Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Ben McEvoy - James Worpel - Tom Mitchell
IC: Andrew McGrath - William Snelling - Mason Redman - Dylan Clarke
IC: James Cousins - Conor Glass - Oliver Hanrahan - Liam Shiels
Hawthorne in: Mitchell Lewis; Out: Tim O'Brien
Essendon in: Cale Hooker, Joe Daniher; Out: Aaron Francis (hamstring), Tom Bellchambers
Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line
So far this season Essendon averaged 20.6% in terms of goals/inside 50, which has slipped to the bottom 6 of the AFL after starting off around the top 4. Hawthorne have one of the weakest defensive groups this year, conceding a goal 23.8% of the time it enters their defensive 50, the third highest % in the AFL. This will be exascerbated by the fact that star defender James Sicily is out for the rest of the year, and Essendon are likely to bring Joe Daniher in for the last few games of the year, who will receive attention from former Bomber Michael Hartley in his second game for the Hawks. James Stewart and Sam Frost will be reacquainted, the former Giants teammates having crossed paths since they left for Melbourne and Essendon respectively, Frost having shaded him in those games, whilst former Hawthorne academy player Irving Mosquito is likely to be matched up on exciting young talent Will Day.
Midfield/rucks battle
Hawthorne are 15th in clearance differential to Essendon's 11th whilst the two are 17th and 16th in contested possession differential respectively, which indicates neither are particularly good at winning the ball at the coalface. With Jaeger O'Meara possibly missing this match the Hawks will be hoping James Worpel and Tom Mitchell can stand up in his absense, Dylan Clarke a possibility to tag one of them, whilst Daniel Howe is likely to go to Zach Merrett as he has done on previous occassions, the star Bomber has had a recent upturn in form and also averaging 30 disposals against the Hawkes, but that will allow Andrew McGrath and Dylan Shiel to get off the chain a little bit more on the inside, along with Darcy Parish who splits his time between the middle and inside 50. On the outside, Essendon will also have an advantage with Kyle Langford having the best year of his career on a wing with stints inside 50, the much improved Will Snelling and youngster Brayden Ham going head to head with the aging Tom Scully who seems past his best, Changkuoth Jiath and the underwhelming James Cousins as well. Rucks wise, Ben McEvoy will be looking to use all his considerable experience against Essendon's young gun Sam Draper, who has pretty much sewn up the #1 ruck spot for next year, former Giants Jonathan Patton and James Stewart will be their support cast respectively
Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence
Hawthorne's forward line is one of the weakest in the AFL too, kicking a goal only 20.1% of the time it enters forward 50. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 7th overall in the AFL. The Dons are likely to welcome back important defender Cale Hooker into their back line, the tall likely to take young gun Mitchell Lewis, who has had a disappointing year for the Hawks, whilst Michael Hurley will probably take star recruit Jonathan Patton, 2nd game back from another hamstring injury. Most of Hawthorne's goals if Gunston fails to return this game come from Chad Wingard and Luke Breust, the two small forwards having kicked 23 goals between them this year, the pair likely to get Martin Gleeson and Adam Saad respectively, with Mason Redman also a possible match up for the Hawthorne small forwards.
X-Factor Player
Changkuoth Jiath not only has one of the best names in football, he has some serious talent. The guy is a running machine, has the rare ability to be quick and run all day that so few players possess. One to look forward to if you're a Hawthorne supporter
Key stat
Hawthorne: Defensive conversion. It's one of their weakest areas in the game, they have to clamp down on Essendon's average forward line if they're to win.
Essendon: Clearances. When they win, they're +20 in clearance differential so far this season, when they lose they're -12.
Tip
Probably our last winnable game for the year. Dons by 22.
Last edited: