Preview Round 14: Hawthorne vs Essendon, York Park, Sunday 20/06/2021 @ 3:20 PM AEST

Whomst dost thou thinketh will win?


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eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Essendon
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Observations

Hawthorne: The Hawks had a shock win against Sydney on Friday, restricting the Swans to four goals after quarter time to their own 10. Tom Mitchell was excellent in the middle, having 34 disposals and 3 clearances, whilst forwards Luke Breust, Dylan Moore and Jacob Koschitzke kicked two goals apiece.

Essendon: The Bombers had a reasonably tight match against Richmond after quarter time, even managing to get the lead over the reigning premiers halfway through the last quarter before running out of legs and losing by 39 points. Darcy Parish won the Yiooken award for best afield, collecting a club record 44 disposals and 11 clearances whilst Brayden Ham kicked 3 goals from a wing in his return to the side.


Head to Head (last 5)

Hawthorne 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

Hawthorne: 1W 4L
Essendon: 3W 2L


Sportsbet odds (currently unavailable)

Hawthorne: $2.46
Essendon: $1.55
Line: 11.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Hawthorne vs Essendon

FB: Aaron Francis - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde

FF: Jacob Koschitzke - Ben McEvoy - Luke Breust
HB: Nick Hind - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jordan Ridley
HF: Chad Wingard - Tim O'Brien - Dylan Moore
MF: Kyle Langford - Archie Perkins - Nik Cox
MF: Tom Phillips - Liam Shiels - Daniel Howe
HF: Devon Smith - Harrison Jones - Jake Stringer
HB: Jarman Impey - Jack Scrimshaw - Changkuoth Jiath
FF: Peter Wright - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Blake Hardwick - Sam Frost - Will Day
OB: Sam Draper - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Jonathon Ceglar - Tom Mitchell - Jai Newcombe
IC: Brayden Ham - Dyson Heppell - Mason Redman - Alec Waterman
IC: Jaeger O'Meara - Shaun Burgoyne - James Cousins - Josh Morris
IS: Matthew Guelfi
IS: Damon Greaves

Hawthorne in: James Cousins, Damon Greaves; out: Harry Morrison (inj), James Worpel (susp)

Essendon in: Sam Draper, Peter Wright, Devon Smith, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher; Out: David Zaharakis (hamstring), Andrew McGrath (knee), Andrew Phillips (omitted), Patrick Ambrose (omitted)


Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have been the second most efficient forward line in the league this season, kicking a goal 26.02% of the time it enters their forward 50. Hawthorne have been a middle of the road defence this year, conceding a goal 22.74% of the time it enters their defensive 50, slightly below the league average. Hawthorne's biggest challenge will be the fact that their defense is undersized in comparison to Essendon's forward group, Sam Frost looks an obvious match up for Cale Hooker but from there, they'll struggle to find appropriately sized players to put on Peter Wright, Harrison Jones and Jake Stringer, as well as the fact Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is currently the best small forward of the year.


Midfield/rucks battle

Both clubs have struggled on the inside this year, Hawthorne ranking 17th and 18th for contested possession and clearance difference respectively so far this season whilst the Bombers are ranked 16th apiece for those particular statistics. Hawthorne have only two players averaging 4 or more clearances a game in James Worpel, who's disposal has been down this season, and Jaeger O'Meara, who has missed a few games through injury. Essendon also only have the two, however Darcy Parish is second overall in terms of clearances in the league, but his main support man this year in Andrew McGrath likely faces a few weeks on the sidelines with a knee injury. On the outside, Hawthorne will be looking to Tom Phillips and James Cousins to provide outlets for them whilst Essendon will be looking to Nik Cox and Brayden Ham, who are putting together very solid seasons. Rucks wise, both Ned Reeves and Sam Draper are inexperienced first rucks, whilst Ben McEvoy and Peter Wright are the more experienced second ruck crew who will spend plenty of time forward as well.


Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence

Hawthorne's forward line has been up and down this season, kicking a goal 22.54% of the time it enters their forward 50, 12th in the AFL. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 25.58% of the time they enter their forward 50, 17th in the AFL. Hawthorne may well play a similar structure to Essendon with the four tall forwards, however Essendon seem to have better sizes to match them, James Stewart likely to take the resting ruck whilst possible inclusion Brandon Zerk-Thatcher might take Mitchell Lewis, with Jayden Laverde and Aaron Francis likely to take Tim O'Brien and Jacob Koschitzke respectively, whilst Nick Hind takes Luke Breust.


X-Factor Player

Watch out for young Alec Waterman, the young small forward has been building nicely for the dons, kicking goals every few games. He could be a difference to flip the round 1 result.


Key stat

Hawthorne: Defensive efficiency. They're up against one of the strongest forward lines in the AFL and need to shut it down if they're to win.

Essendon: Tackles inside 50. Only two last game, if they can get it close to their previous season average of around 10 they'll be much better placed.


Tip

Parish to break his own record by getting 47 disposals and Bombers by 33
 
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Lore

Moderator ❀
Dec 14, 2015
25,094
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Cutler, Draper and Wright should be available. Maybe Smith. Hopefully Reid.

Walla's corkie should be fine. Laverde's face should be fine. The guys that were running out of gas today should be a bit fresher, especially the kids.

Guelfi had a mare but I think he'll bounce back. Opponent had his measure today.
 

JT_the_Man

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 23, 2014
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Oh how sweet getting revenge here would be.

We are a far superior side to the one they saw in round 1. I expect us to race away to another 40 point half time lead and keep the foot down to make it 80.
 

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eth-dog

Premium Platinum
Jan 11, 2007
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My current thoughts:

OUT: McGrath (knee), Zaharakis (hamstring), Ambrose (omitted), Phillips (omitted)
IN: Devon Smith, Peter Wright, Sam Draper, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher

Guelfi to sub

Jayden Laverde - James Stewart - Aaron Francis
Nick Hind - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jordan Ridley
Nikolas Cox - Darcy Parish - Brayden Ham
Archie Perkins - Harrison Jones - Jake Stringer
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Cale Hooker - Peter Wright
Sam Draper - Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett
Devon Smith - Dyson Heppell - Mason Redman - Alec Waterman
Matthew Guelfi
 

Ati Tude

Club Legend
Mar 20, 2018
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Essendon
We owe this side a massive hairpulling.

How far off is Reid?
You'd think they would want him to play a game in VFL. Am all for getting him in quick stix to get some games in this year, but need to know he can run out a game given he has missed a lot.
 

Lore

Moderator ❀
Dec 14, 2015
25,094
33,517
AFL Club
Essendon
You'd think they would want him to play a game in VFL. Am all for getting him in quick stix to get some games in this year, but need to know he can run out a game given he has missed a lot.
He played a praccy last week (for Carlton, against Sydney) – he and Draper were the only players that we managed to find a game for with VFL matches cancelled. Our other depth seem to have missed out altogether. Can read into it as much as you like though, or not at all.
 

Halftimehero

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 26, 2012
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He played a praccy last week (for Carlton, against Sydney) – he and Draper were the only players that we managed to find a game for with VFL matches cancelled. Our other depth seem to have missed out altogether. Can read into it as much as you like though, or not at all.
Be there interesting to see who got a run of some sorts this week
 
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