Preview Round 14: St. Kilda vs Essendon, Docklands, 17/06/2022 @ 7:50 PM

Do we somehow avoid a loss?

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Last Week

St. Kilda: Injuries cruelled the Saints against Brisbane, losing key men early in the game. Despite this, the Saints were in the game until Brisbane kicked away in the last quarter to go down by 21 points. Jack Sinclair keeps impressing, collecting 30 disposals whilst Jade Gresham had 21 disposals and 3 goals playing across half forward.

Essendon: The Bombers had a disappointing 150th year celebration, going down to arch rivals Carlton by 26 points. Dylan Shiel had his best game for the year with 27 disposals and 10 tackles, whilst Sam Draper and Harrison Jones kicked 2 goals apiece in impressive performances by the two young key position players.


Head to Head (last 5)

St. Kilda 2-3 Essendon


Form Guide

St. Kilda: 3W 2L
Essendon: 1W 4L


Possible sides

St. Kilda vs Essendon

FB: Ben Paton - Dougal Howard - Callum Wilkie
FF: Jake Stringer - Peter Wright - James Stewart
HB: Jack Sinclair - Josh Battle - Jimmy Webster
HF: Matthew Guelfi - Harrison Jones - Archie Perkins
MF: Brad Hill - Seb Ross - Jack Billings
MF: Sam Durham - Dylan Shiel - Nic Martin
HF: Daniel Butler - Rohan Marshall - Jade Gresham
HB: Mason Redman - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jayden Laverde
FF: Cooper Sharman - Max King - Tim Membrey
FB: Jake Kelly - Zachary Reid - Jordan Ridley
OB: Paddy Rider - Brad Crouch - Hunter Clark
OB: Sam Draper - Andrew McGrath - Zachary Merrett
IC: Jarrod Lienart - Ben Long - Jack Higgins - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
IC: Ben Hobbs - Nick Hind - Massimo D'Ambrosio - Jye Caldwell
MS: Ryan Byrnes
MS: Dyson Heppell

St. Kilda on: Billings, Clark, Sharman, Waganeen-Milera, Byrnes; out: Daniel McKenzie (concussion), Michito Owens (concussion), Zak Jones (hamstring), Mason Wood (injured), Marcus Windhager (omitted)
Essendon in: Zerk-Thatcher, Stewart, McGrath, D'Ambrosio; out: Alec Waterman (quad/sub), Darcy Parish (calf), Tom Cutler, Andrew Phillips (omit)


St. Kilda defence vs Essendon forward line

So far Essendon have kicked a goal 19.97% of the time it enters their forward 50, 17th in the AFL. St. Kilda's defence has been very impressive this season, conceding a goal 19.67% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Peter Wright is experiencing a small form slump, not kicking a goal in his last 3 games and will be directly opposed to Dougal Howard, who has had a very good year so far. Josh Battle probably goes to Harrison Jones, who has been good since returning from injury and will be a tough challenge for the young forward, whilst Callum Wilkie will get the challenge of Jake Stringer, the dynamic medium returning from a couple of hamstring injuries last week.


Midfield/rucks battle

In terms of contested possession difference, the Saints are 4th in the AFL, whilst Essendon are 15th. Clearances are a lot closer, the Saints 10th to Essendon's 13th, but there's a clear difference between the sides in the midfield. Brad Crouch has really stepped up since captain Jack Steele went down, and the inclusion of Hunter Clark will be very important for the Saints to get the ball out, whilst Essendon will be hoping the form of Dylan Shiel from last game will keep on, with youngsters Ben Hobbs and Archie Perkins have started to get a lot more midfield time this week. On the outside, Brad Hill and Jack Billings will be strong here, whilst Essendon will be hoping that Sam Durham can get his production higher alongside the impressive Nic Martin. Rucks wise, former Bomber Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall is one of the best combinations in the AFL whilst Essendon man Sam Draper has shown an uptick in form recently.


St. Kilda forward line vs Essendon defence

St. Kilda have kicked a goal 24.37% of the time it enters their forward 50, currently 5th in the AFL. Essendon's defence has been very leaky, conceding a goal 25.53% of the time it enters defensive 50, which is 17th in the AFL currently. Young tall Zach Reid has impressed since coming in, and will get the challenge of Max King, currently 3rd in the Coleman Medal, probably his toughest assignment this year. Brandon Zerk-Thatcher could get another chance against the resting ruck of either Rowan Marshall or former don Paddy Ryder, which should release Jayden Laverde to play on medium forward Tim Membrey.


X-Factor Player

The nephew of Essendon legend Gavin and cousin of current bomber Tex Wanganeen, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was drafted in the first round last year, and has impressed with his speed and skilled this year.


Key stat

St. Kilda: Goals/inside 50 conceded. They have one of the best defences in the league, absolutely vital they keep that going to get the win.

Essendon: Clearances. Essendon have been slowly improving in this, they need another big game in this to have a chance.


Tip

Can't see it happening, St. Kilda by 22
 
Last edited:
Initial thoughts:

Out: Parish (calf), Cutler, Phillips (omit), Waterman (sub)
In: Zerk-Thatcher, Menzie, Stewart, Hird

Laverde - Zerk-Thatcher - Kelly
Ridley - Reid - Redman
Durham - Hobbs - Martin
Guelfi - Jones - Hird
Stewart - Wright - Menzie
Draper - Merrett - Shiel
Hind - Caldwell - Stringer - Perkins
Heppell (sub)
 
If McGrath plays then hopefully it's in defense and not the midfield. Not sure what Merrett is up to but he may as well go forward as he's not adding anything through the midfield either. Give Perkins another crack with Hobbs for Parish and lets see what a future with a bit of grunt and polish looks like.
 

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Anyone else getting a bit worried about 2MP's form (or lack of). Hasnt kicked a goal for a month now and doesnt seem to be clunking thise big contested marks he was earlier in the season....

Anyway initial thoughts on changes would be;-

OUT: Cutler, Kelly, Parish, Phillips, Waterman
IN: Langford, Stewart, McGrath, Menzie, Snelling

Team;-

Stewart Reid Lav
Redman Ridley Hind
Martin Shiel Durham
Perkins Langford Guelfi
Stringer Jones Hobbs

Draper Caldwell Merrett

Bench: McGrath Heppell Menzie 2MP
SUB: Snelling
 
Bombers36 said:
Anyone else getting a bit worried about 2MP's form (or lack of). Hasnt kicked a goal for a month now and doesnt seem to be clunking thise big contested marks he was earlier in the season....

Anyway initial thoughts on changes would be;-

OUT: Cutler, Kelly, Parish, Phillips, Waterman
IN: Langford, Stewart, McGrath, Menzie, Snelling

Team;-

Stewart Reid Lav
Redman Ridley Hind
Martin Shiel Durham
Perkins Langford Guelfi
Stringer Jones Hobbs

Draper Caldwell Merrett

Bench: McGrath Heppell Menzie 2MP
SUB: Snelling
Click to expand...
Have you bothered looking at the injury updates at all or watch games?

Again, Kelly won't be dropped. Stop listing him as an out because it won't happen and we'd be stupid to let it happen.
 
eth-dog said:
Have you bothered looking at the injury updates at all or watch games?

Again, Kelly won't be dropped. Stop listing him as an out because it won't happen and we'd be stupid to let it happen.
Click to expand...

Yes - I watch all the games and also occasionally check injury reports...!! Kelly is hardly setting the world on fire, and whilst I agree its unlikely he will get dropped because he's Rutten's love child - it doesnt mean he shouldn't get dropped...Sorry to have an opinion on an internet forum...!!
 
Bombers36 said:
Yes - I watch all the games and also occasionally check injury reports...!! Kelly is hardly setting the world on fire, and whilst I agree its unlikely he will get dropped because he's Rutten's love child - it doesnt mean he shouldn't get dropped...Sorry to have an opinion on an internet forum...!!
Click to expand...
Not against you having an opinion. I'm against stupid opinions like Kelly getting dropped

It isn't because he's Rutten's "love child" as you so eloquantly put it, it's because he's a defender who actually does his job and, you know, defends. Last night he played on Silvagni for the most part who did what exactly? It's also what happens most weeks for him, he does a pretty reasonable job defensively for the most part.

And if you did watch/read injury reports (and hey, Lore always updates individual player threads in case you don't, which I suspect is actually the case), you'd know that Snelling won't be fit for next week and Langford will only get "some time" playing because he had such a long layoff so will most likely play VFL next week rather than AFL.
 
We definitely need one of, if not two of Menzie, Wanganeen and Hird in next week.

Parish had a corked calf so maybe not 100% ruled out yet I guess.
 
Bombers36 said:
Anyone else getting a bit worried about 2MP's form (or lack of). Hasnt kicked a goal for a month now and doesnt seem to be clunking thise big contested marks he was earlier in the season....

Anyway initial thoughts on changes would be;-

OUT: Cutler, Kelly, Parish, Phillips, Waterman
IN: Langford, Stewart, McGrath, Menzie, Snelling

Team;-

Stewart Reid Lav
Redman Ridley Hind
Martin Shiel Durham
Perkins Langford Guelfi
Stringer Jones Hobbs

Draper Caldwell Merrett

Bench: McGrath Heppell Menzie 2MP
SUB: Snelling
Click to expand...
Have you seen how slow we move the ball. Impossible to play as a tall in our forward line atm.
 
Out: Parish, Cutler, Phillips, Kelly
In: McGrath, Langford, Stewart, Menzie

B: Laverde - Reid - Hind
HB: Redman - Ridley - McGrath
C: Martin - Perkins - Merrett
HF: Stringer - Jones - Hobbs
F: Menzie - Wright - Stewart
R: Draper - Shiel - Caldwell
I/C: Heppell - Langford - Durham - Guelfi
 

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bring in any key back so Ridley can get off the chain a lot more and do what he does best.
 
I didn’t watch the 2s but would you look at 2 rucks against the saints?
 
Hamez said:
We might be getting the Saints at a good time. They’ve just lost two players to concussion and Jones with a hamstring.
Click to expand...
Just came to post this. If we were ever going to sneak one against the flow it’ll be against the Saints coming off a bruising interstate game.

You’d think D’Ambrosio and Stewart are in given their performances in the twos
 
So, with Stewart playing forward and doing well in the 2s, how do we fit him in? 2MP, Jones, Stringer, resting ruck and Stewart doesn't work. They drop 1 of Phillips or Draper and 2MP plays 2nd ruck?
 
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