Preview Round 15 2020 - Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood, The Gabba, Friday September 4th @ 7:50 PM

[luthor]

Both teams looked very tired. Carlton more so, to be fair.

I really feel this game is just a matter of sticking with them for three quarters, because we will surely finish stronger.

I'm not so sure about that.

We haven't won a final quarter since we beat the Bombers in Round nine.

Since then, our 4th quarters have been

Round 10 1.2 v Richmond 3.4 (off a 4 day break)
Round 11 1.2 v Bulldogs 3.4 (off a 5 day break)
Round 12 2.2 v North 4.1 (off a 7 day break)
Round 13 0.1 v Saints 1.3 (off an 8 day break)

The trend has been counter-intuitive in that our 4th quarter performances are worse off longer breaks than shorter ones. We can't even blame our infamous inaccuracy. Our total last quarter scores based on the last 4 matches are 4.7 (31) to 11.12. (78).

For this upcoming match against the Pies , we will be off a 13 day break versus their 5 days of rest.

I'm not going to feel confident unless we have established a 4+ goal lead at 3/4 time

 

[Gadzorks]

The below from the Collingwood thread made me smile.

How to beat Bris:
1. play them outside Queensland. you win.
dam.... we were scheduled to play them at MCG which got changed to us playing hawks in syd!
2. Let them kick points not goals (they good at that)
3.Don’t kick to Andrews
4.Tag neale
5Maynard attached at the hip to Cameron
6. hope it’s windy so Hipwood can’t stand up

In reply
1. Finally we get more than half the games without interstate travel. All clubs who have enjoyed that privledge over decades should stop whining
2 its true
3 if you kick toward your forward line, you are kicking to Andrews
4. Tag Neale and another A grade mid pops up and carries the load. Hello Zorko
5 If it's not a surgical attachment at the hip, it's not going to work
6 hipwood is good at smashing packs. A tailwind just helps him get there faster, and a head wind brings the ball into his range faster. A windy day is lose lose for Collingwood

 

[Dylan12]

I did laugh at that Collingwood poster's point 6.

 

[Ironmonger]

I'm not so sure about that.

We haven't won a final quarter since we beat the Bombers in Round nine.

Since then, our 4th quarters have been

Round 10 1.2 v Richmond 3.4 (off a 4 day break)
Round 11 1.2 v Bulldogs 3.4 (off a 5 day break)
Round 12 2.2 v North 4.1 (off a 7 day break)
Round 13 0.1 v Saints 1.3 (off an 8 day break)

The trend has been counter-intuitive in that our 4th quarter performances are worse off longer breaks than shorter ones. We can't even blame our infamous inaccuracy. Our total last quarter scores based on the last 4 matches are 4.7 (31) to 11.12. (78).

For this upcoming match against the Pies , we will be off a 13 day break versus their 5 days of rest.

I'm not going to feel confident unless we have established a 4+ goal lead at 3/4 time

I don't see the trend you see. We've lost each of those final quarters, but where we had a longer break we lost by less. Not by much less, admittedly, but I really don't think there's any evidence to suggest we do better off a shorter break in last quarters.

I do think the 'festival of footy' sapped us over a few weeks, not just against Richmond and the Bulldogs. I'm hopeful that a proper break makes a difference. I don't think we're a bad fourth quarter team as a rule.

 

[Dalions]

I don't see the trend you see. We've lost each of those final quarters, but where we had a longer break we lost by less. Not by much less, admittedly, but I really don't think there's any evidence to suggest we do better off a shorter break in last quarters.

I do think the 'festival of footy' sapped us over a few weeks, not just against Richmond and the Bulldogs. I'm hopeful that a proper break makes a difference. I don't think we're a bad fourth quarter team as a rule.

Maybe we just go into conservation mode?
We feel we have a big enough lead to defend.

 

[Dylan12]

Sounds like Dan will be back for Friday's game.

 

[daicos mark 2]

How the AFL can allow lions to have a 12 day break compared to a pies 5 day is a disgrace. With our injuries and Ridiculous short turn around if you don’t beat us by 5 goals plus I would be concerned heading into finals

 

[Ironmonger]

How the AFL can allow lions to have a 12 day break compared to a pies 5 day is a disgrace. With our injuries and Ridiculous short turn around if you don’t beat us by 5 goals plus I would be concerned heading into finals

I actually agree.

I think this is one of many games that has been robbed of significance by unequal breaks.

It still eats away at me that we didn't get a proper crack at Richmond because we had four days to recover compared to their six. There's no one we want to beat more than Richmond, right now.

 

[Dylan12]

How the AFL can allow lions to have a 12 day break compared to a pies 5 day is a disgrace. With our injuries and Ridiculous short turn around if you don’t beat us by 5 goals plus I would be concerned heading into finals

This will probably be the first game we're on the right side of the 'days break' between us and our opposition.

We had a four day break against Richmond's six day break, followed by a second four day break following that Richmond game compared to the Dogs five break.

Similarly, following our game against your mob on Friday night, we play Gold Coast five days later after they'd have had a 10 day break. Then we play again four days later whilst Sydney have a five day break.

I agree with your concerns, but if you want to see the club that has benefited the most, do the same exercise for Richmond and you'll find, more than any other club, they have had disproportionately longer breaks than their opposition, that is, the club that needs it the least.

 

[Dalions]

This will probably be the first game we're on the right side of the 'days break' between us and our opposition.

We had a four day break against Richmond's six day break, followed by a second four day break following that Richmond game compared to the Dogs five break.

Similarly, following our game against your mob on Friday night, we play Gold Coast five days later after they'd have had a 10 day break. Then we play again four days later whilst Sydney have a five day break.

I agree with your concerns, but if you want to see the club that has benefited the most, do the same exercise for Richmond and you'll find, more than any other club, they have had disproportionately longer breaks than their opposition, that is, the club that needs it the least.

They have, well and truly, looked after Richmond.

 

[briztoon]

How the AFL can allow lions to have a 12 day break compared to a pies 5 day is a disgrace. With our injuries and Ridiculous short turn around if you don’t beat us by 5 goals plus I would be concerned heading into finals

Barking up the wrong tree here mate.

 

[BangyBangy]

They have, well and truly, looked after Richmond.

They have to, otherwise their players will leave the hub.

 

[Dalions]

They have to, otherwise their players will leave the hub.

So?

 

[Dalions]

How the AFL can allow lions to have a 12 day break compared to a pies 5 day is a disgrace. With our injuries and Ridiculous short turn around if you don’t beat us by 5 goals plus I would be concerned heading into finals

In round 17 you guys play the Suns after a 10 day break and the Suns only have 5.
Is that a disgrace?

 

[daicos mark 2]

In round 17 you guys play the Suns after a 10 day break and the Suns only have 5.
Is that a disgrace?

Actually it is a disgrace. I have no issue with the fixture being condensed but seriously make it as equal for all teams. It robs the game of true results. we played Melbourne off a similar break to what we have now. And we got absolutely smashed. We had 4 games in 13 days in 3 different states

Afl have had it hard doing the fixture but they way they have done it doesn’t give a true reflection where teams are really at.

The season is too comprimised to be relevant

 

[Dalions]

Actually it is a disgrace. I have no issue with the fixture being condensed but seriously make it as equal for all teams. It robs the game of true results. we played Melbourne off a similar break to what we have now. And we got absolutely smashed. We had 4 games in 13 days in 3 different states

Afl have had it hard doing the fixture but they way they have done it doesn’t give a true reflection where teams are really at.

The season is too comprimised to be relevant

This is no gimme for the Lions
Brisbane haven’t beaten Collingwood at the Gabba since 2010.

 

[martinson]

Actually it is a disgrace. I have no issue with the fixture being condensed but seriously make it as equal for all teams. It robs the game of true results. we played Melbourne off a similar break to what we have now. And we got absolutely smashed. We had 4 games in 13 days in 3 different states

Afl have had it hard doing the fixture but they way they have done it doesn’t give a true reflection where teams are really at.

The season is too comprimised to be relevant

If it's not relevant why even bother then.

All teams have suffered.

Good to see some of the bigger Melbourne clubs getting a taste of what it's like for interstate clubs every year.

It's either how they've done it or no season at all .

In some ways this is a truer test of your capacity to press on through adversity.

 

[martinson]

Moreover to see the bigger clubs having a whinge about hubs and the draw is so laced with irony you wouldn't know where to start.

As an observation mini hubs every year once we get back to normal would be a great way to generate interest in the NRL states.

If they were 100% serious about a National competition.

 

[daicos mark 2]

If it's not relevant why even bother then.

All teams have suffered.

Good to see some of the bigger Melbourne clubs getting a taste of what it's like for interstate clubs every year.

It's either how they've done it or no season at all .

In some ways this is a truer test of your capacity to press on through adversity.

I hate that argument. Interstate teams have to travel a lot more because there are 10 teams in Victoria and 2 in every other state. What Victorian teams hardly ever get is a true home ground advantage that interstate teams have.

If there was ever a year for the lions to pinch a flag it’s this year. Rarely leaving your state playing teams on neutral grounds and own home ground. You will never get this free ride ever again. So make the most of it I say

 

[Dalions]

What Victorian teams hardly ever get is a true home ground advantage that interstate teams have.

So the Lions don’t have a (true) Home ground advantage this year then, by your argument.
Other teams are playing more at the Gabba then we are at the moment.

 

[lionraven]

I hate that argument. Interstate teams have to travel a lot more because there are 10 teams in Victoria and 2 in every other state. What Victorian teams hardly ever get is a true home ground advantage that interstate teams have.

If there was ever a year for the lions to pinch a flag it’s this year. Rarely leaving your state playing teams on neutral grounds and own home ground. You will never get this free ride ever again. So make the most of it I say

Your first point directly argues the bolded. If everyone is playing in SEQ then Lions totally lose their home field advantage because every Tom, Dick and Harry is staying up in SEQ and playing at the Gabba. Saints had played their last 4 wins at the Gabba prior to the Lions. You cant have it both ways. It cant be that every other year Vic teams dont have a favourable bias but for some reason Lions do have a favourable bias for having the exact same things Vic teams generally have (minimal interstate travel at the expense of sharing home ground games with other teams).

 

[lionraven]

So the Lions don’t have a (true) Home ground advantage this year then, by your argument.
Other teams are playing more at the Gabba then we are at the moment.

Damn you Dlions. Now it looks like I copied your homework 1 second later.

 

[martinson]

I hate that argument. Interstate teams have to travel a lot more because there are 10 teams in Victoria and 2 in every other state. What Victorian teams hardly ever get is a true home ground advantage that interstate teams have.

If there was ever a year for the lions to pinch a flag it’s this year. Rarely leaving your state playing teams on neutral grounds and own home ground. You will never get this free ride ever again. So make the most of it I say

So the Victorian teams have a huge advantage every year and this year according to you they don't. So when Brisbane play Richmond or Collingwood at the MCG that's not a 'true' home advantage when Brisbane are lucky to play there once a year. Plus the travel.

That's cool. Quite expect for Collingwood and Richmond to spit the dummy as soon as things aren't 100% in their favor.

With 2 teams in every state you would expect Collingwood to travel at least 8 times a year . Which still leaves 14 weeks of not travelling. Do they ? Plus a guaranteed home GF if they get there.

Just seems to me they get a dream run most of the time . Then want to have a whinge as soon as unprecedented circumstances give someone else an advantage.

If Collingwood don't measure up this year it'll be because they weren't good enough.

 

[Brett C]

I hate that argument. Interstate teams have to travel a lot more because there are 10 teams in Victoria and 2 in every other state. What Victorian teams hardly ever get is a true home ground advantage that interstate teams have.

If there was ever a year for the lions to pinch a flag it’s this year. Rarely leaving your state playing teams on neutral grounds and own home ground. You will never get this free ride ever again. So make the most of it I say

That rubbish argument about home ground advantage completely ignores the whole host of factors that go into travelling.
Vic based clubs get a free ride each year and it time to whinging victorians to stfu

 

[daicos mark 2]

So the Victorian teams have a huge advantage every year and this year according to you they don't. So when Brisbane play Richmond or Collingwood at the MCG that's not a 'true' home advantage when Brisbane are lucky to play there once a year. Plus the travel.

That's cool. Quite expect for Collingwood and Richmond to spit the dummy as soon as things aren't 100% in their favor.

With 2 teams in every state you would expect Collingwood to travel at least 8 times a year . Which still leaves 14 weeks of not travelling. Do they ? Plus a guaranteed home GF if they get there.

Just seems to me they get a dream run most of the time . Then want to have a whinge as soon as unprecedented circumstances give someone else an advantage.

If Collingwood don't measure up this year it'll be because they weren't good enough.

Is it not possible for every Victorian team to play very interstate team away for 8 weeks. That would mean no interstate team leaves home except when they play another non Victoria team. I am not sure how you come to that argument.

And there is a reason why most interstate teams win at home is because they have a true home ground advantage.

And yes somewhat this year your home ground advantage has reduced. However while every club is stuck in a hotel qld teams have the luxury and living in their own homes.

As I said make the most of this opportunity because you won’t get a better opportunity