Prediction Round 15- Changes v Essendon at Optus

[stax on the mull]

He got tackled and managed to get the ball over the line for a behind, big deal?

Better than a kick and hope from that spot.

Think the call from the ump was the ball was already over the line which maybe means when Banfield held the ball over the line before Larkey tackled him it was a point. The goal umpire seems to go immediately to signal a point at that stage. The tackle with the ball spilling loose might be after the fact.

 

[BStaff17]

Rain forecast for most of Thursday. Probably more than tonight.

Why does it always rain when we get an easy opponent at home.

It's happened for years

Seems the rain gods are against us

 

[apuchar]

Surprised at that too.
He was everywhere in the first quarter. Only 1 tackle? That’s misleading.

Yeah. No way he only had one tackle.

 

[_007_]

My team this week:
Out: Switkowski (injured), Sharp (omitted) and Fyfe (older than Erasmus)
In: Dudley, Aish (Defence version) and O'Driscoll

FB: Ryan Draper Worner
HB: Clark Cox Chapman
C: Wagner Serong O'Driscoll
HF: Bolton Treacy Reid
FF: Amiss Voss Dudley

R: Darcy Brayshaw Jackson

I: Frederick Johnson Aish Erasmus

Sub: Banfield

Expected:
Out: Switkowski
In: Dudley

FB: Ryan Draper Worner
HB: Clark Cox Chapman
C: Sharp Serong Wagner
HF: Bolton Treacy Reid
FF: Amiss Voss Frederick

R: Darcy Brayshaw Fyfe

I: Dudley Jackson Banfield Johnson

Sub: Erasmus

 

[freoextra]

Tonight was a bit of a slog and with a 5 day break I would think a rested Omac should come in either up forward in place of Amiss or down back in place of Draper if Pearce is not ready.

Dudley should come in for Switta.

And it is waste of time saying it but Brodie dominated for Peel again today and deserves a chance but it won't happen.

I would like to see OMac in for Draper, thought Amiss was good at ground level, competed well and if he had nailed those two opportunities it would have been a ok game for him.

 

[freoextra]

I don't think Switta is actually injured, he was doing run throughs and looked unsure so they played it safe (I sit right near the dugout). JL also said it was tightness, not an injury.

I think he probably still misses the 1 given his history though. Helps to have a good player to swap in for him in Dudley.

I think we may give Pearce one more week off too, which is ironic.

Interesting selection squeeze coming up soon. Walker will be available after a week at Peel I suspect. NOD should come in for Sharp. Question marks will remain over Ras/Fyfe/JOM and who gets the spots.

I think I would rest Darcy and add the extra runner for this one.

Don’t think Walker is an option for a number of weeks, still clearly favoring one arm at practice, I would actually be surprised if he plays for Peel this week.

 

[Cesoir]

Why does it always rain when we get an easy opponent at home.

It's happened for years

Seems the rain gods are against us

Is it because I lied when I was seventeen?

 

[freoextra]

I didn't see Erasmus do anything except turn it over..

That is just so wrong.

 

[Superkoops]

Think the call from the ump was the ball was already over the line which maybe means when Banfield held the ball over the line before Larkey tacked him it was a point. The goal umpire seems to go immediately to signal a point at that stage. The tackle with the ball spilling loose might be after the fact.

It looked dodgy as heck. On the very quick replay the goal umpire called the ball behind because Banfield in the process of carrying ball moved his arms with the ball over the line before he was tackled. So it was a behind called by the umpire before the very likely HTB decision. So whilst North might feel ripped off and the commentators through it was deadset HTB. It wasn’t because his arms and the ball went over the line before he was tackled.

 

[stax on the mull]

It looked dodgy as heck. On the very quick replay the goal umpire called the ball behind because Banfield in the process of carrying ball moved his arms with the ball over the line before he was tackled. So it was a behind called by the umpire before the very likely HTB decision. So whilst North might feel ripped off and the commentators through it was deadset HTB. It wasn’t because his arms and the ball went over the line before he was tackled.

The umpire that makes the decision or non-decision is positioned on an angle where he's looking at it side on from the left side. For the TV viewer, there's probably some parallax error (or whatever it's called) and you can really only follow where Banfield has taken the ball in the smaller box replay in the corner - and when you look at that and when the ball spills loose a good portion Larkey's body (who is behind Banfield) is over the line, whereas in the larger screen replay he looks like he's in play.

Eg: At this point, Banfield's toe is on the goalline and his elbows are ahead of his knees so his hands must be completely over the line.

 

[Superkoops]

Live at the game I thought Fyfe was quite poor with a few substandard efforts and a dropped mark that he was lucky wasnt published. Writing seems to be on the wall for him and Ras to swap at s minimum but I hope not.

Poor is a bit strong. I think he was a bit slow with some of his decision making. Seemed overly conscious of handballing and the opposition know this. Sometimes the hack kick forward like Serong is fine / just get it on. He gets himself into trouble holding the ball looking around for a player to handball. Too long just get it on.

He did a couple of very nice handballs to players where it was his first option. He can have a quick glance and if no players are free then throw it on the boot.

I’d leave him as sub for one more week.

Not sure why Ras was on the bench so much.

If it was me:
Sharp> NOD
Draper> OMac (held over emergency)
Switta > Dudley

 

[Superkoops]

The umpire that makes the decision or non-decision is positioned on an angle where he's looking at it side on from the left side. For the TV viewer, there's probably some parallax error (or whatever it's called) and you can really only follow where Banfield has taken the ball in the smaller box replay in the corner - and when you look at that and when the ball spills loose a good portion Larkey's body (who is behind Banfield) is over the line, whereas in the larger screen replay he looks like he's in play.

Eg: At this point, the Banfield's toe is on the goalline and his elbows are ahead of his knees so his hands must be completely over the line.

View attachment 2343140

Good summary. Essentially just as he was initially tackled the ball in Banfield’s arms is over line (ie before the potential HTB decision).

 

[Megalon]

A bit leftfield, but Dudley in at HFF and Freddy to HBF. Reckon Freddy could go alright there until Simpson comes back, he hasn't been that effective this year but it could give him some touch and form if allowed to take the game on.

 

[Megalon]

If it was me:
Sharp> NOD
Draper> OMac (held over emergency)
Switta > Dudley

Don't mind this at all, except NOD is still working into form at WAFL level? Sharp is running out massive kms in games which is his strength, NOD needs more time IMO (but I'll all in when NOD is showing form, way more damaging and contested than Sharp).

 

[stax on the mull]

Good summary. Essentially just as he was initially tackled the ball in Banfield’s arms is over line (ie before the potential HTB decision).

On a clip with sound the umpire confirms that by telling Larkey the ball was already over the line.

It looks dodgy as you mentioned.

Banfield could just run over the line but there's so many grey area rules in that situation as a defender he must be thinking he can't make it look too obvious after receiving the handball from Jackson.

I guess the person that posted it is indicating that it's poor defending. I think by Banfield's response afterwards it seems like he knew he'd taken it over the line and reacted as if he thought Larkey knew it as well and was trying to con the umpire.

 

[JunglistPosse]

Could someone more learned than me help me understand by we are selecting Draper instead of OMac?

 

[Raz]

I would love to see Fyfe names on the bench instead of Sub and given more minutes on the ground

Erasmus move to sub.

Why?

I think Fyfe leadership showed well in that last qtr. Directing players around and ensuring we won a match that we looked like losing.

He did some errors as all players did. a few slow movements of ball. But he did many amazing quick handballs while facing one direction and suddenly the ball was released from a pack to one of our players. He has great vision.

The more time on ground for Fyfe will build his fitness back to form and enable much learning from the young guys.

 

[FreoRicci]

Could someone more learned than me help me understand by we are selecting Draper instead of OMac?

Potential, obviously. But shouldn’t be a reason for selection.
Draper just slides and fumble at crucial times. Shouldn’t really get a guarantee so he can play games for development. That’s the reason for Peel

 

[thistimeforsure]

Sites like this really only exist to validate peoples opinions and mindwank the brain with the like button

Anyone who thinks Darcy’s a gun just needing game time will see him do ok in the hitouts and go he’s not far away

Anyone who thinks he is a slow immobile log and H/O’s mean Jack shit compared to having a blackhole in the middle of your team defence will only see that

Out : Darcy , Draper , Switta , Fyfe

In : Dudley , Nod , Davies / McDonald

Sub Delean

Reward some good performances at Peel and critically , most important of anything get our team speed back up to the Port game levels where we looked capable of competing with anyone with our pressure right up for 4 quarters

 

[Bender571]

With some debate over Erasmus' disposal I thought I would go back and have a look
Q1 gets a possession but is too slow and gets bumped off his kick
Gets a free kick at a centre bounce and does an easy 20m kick to a loose player
At a centre bounce he receives a handball in space and bombs it inside 50 to a pack
Gets a free kick and handballs 2m to Worner running past
Receives handball in the D50 with time and kicks it behind Tracy's lead to his disadvantage. Treacy makes a contest and gets the ball out of bounds. Not technically a turnover, but still a disappointing kick.

Q2 receives a handball in a clearance and does a nice handball over his shoulder to Bolton.
Gets a free kick at a centre bounce and does an easy 20m kick to a loose player.
Receives a handball under pressure at a D50 throw in and dumps the ball down the line to a contest. Kick is a little shallow.
Roves ball under pressure at a D50 ball up and dumps the ball long down the to a contest. This is technically a turnover because North end up winning it back.
Wins a loose ball on the wing and handballs 5m to Sharp by himself.

Q3 Crumbs a marking contest in D50 and handballs to Treacy
Receives a handball with space at HBF and kicks down the line straight to a North player with no Freo player close. Very poor kick.
Gets the ground ball after the North player missed the soccer in front of goals. Panics a bit and just does a dump kick down the line that doesn't clear the 50 and goes to a 1 on 1 contest. If he had a bit more composer he had three better options.

Overall I think his handballing was fine, but his kicking was poor. He wasn't the only one, but the comments I saw were specifically talking about Erasmus' disposal.

 

[chaosball32]

Surely NOD comes in for Sharp now? The only argument for Sharp is that he has a better tank but NOD adds much more. We were worried about him leaving for Port last year and now he’s stuck in the WAFL again?

If Pearce is fit he comes in for Draper, if not I’d still consider McDonald or even Davies for Draper, Draper has been a liability this year.

Dudley for Switta if he’s hurt, if not Dudley for Darcy, give Darcy a rest and bring back some run, Essendon’s KPP stocks are shot and Jackson can handle a middle aged Goldstein.

 

[eastfreo75]

5 day break.

Need extra run.

Out: Darcy (load management)
Switta (injured)


In: Dudley, NOD,

Fyfe starting and Banfield as sub.

 

[Superkoops]

Don't mind this at all, except NOD is still working into form at WAFL level? Sharp is running out massive kms in games which is his strength, NOD needs more time IMO (but I'll all in when NOD is showing form, way more damaging and contested than Sharp).

How much time is needed and how many more WAFL games does he need. A couple of times he had that burst run through traffic that is a point of difference. If we just want a runner on the wing - we should draft Peter Bol.

Look Sharp has been a great value pick up and should definitely be re-signed. Two year with a trigger for a third. However, a spell running around Peel being more attacking won’t hurt his development. We need more bang for our buck with the wing.

NOD was rotated on and off the bench - esp in the third. Was that to keep him a little fresh for Essendon or is he building his AFL conditioning. I’m not sure. If it is the former then let’s go. 21 possessions against Subiaco, a week off and then 23 possessions against West Coast shows he is ready.

 

[Footskill]

Watching the replay, there was a quite a few instances and opportunities where we didn't give off or take first option which was there and could of opened up the play

 

[DeanoDocker]

Surely NOD comes in for Sharp now? The only argument for Sharp is that he has a better tank but NOD adds much more. We were worried about him leaving for Port last year and now he’s stuck in the WAFL again?

If Pearce is fit he comes in for Draper, if not I’d still consider McDonald or even Davies for Draper, Draper has been a liability this year.

Dudley for Switta if he’s hurt, if not Dudley for Darcy, give Darcy a rest and bring back some run, Essendon’s KPP stocks are shot and Jackson can handle a middle aged Goldstein.

Sharp runs all day and spends inordinate amonts of time running to block space and create an outlet that isnt used but forces someone to spread out from the middle of the ground to cover him. He was taking a lot more shot on goals last year and earlier this year but our gameplan has definately sped up and become more corridoor which has hurt his outside possessions.

He did a terrific kick from deep defence at the river end to a wide lead yesterday which I think ended up being a scoring chain

Will be really interesting to see how JLo develops him from here as regardless of his strong work ethic, he clearly needs more ball to keep skills sharp and become more offensive for us.

At the end of the day - isnt it nice to have decent wing options at last - and I love NOD when he is up and about, he seems to have this infectious bouncy energy all the time